926 A Game of Thrones Mafia - Over.

[Confucius]

Please respond to the most important part of my post when you have time. Namely:

MacavityLock, please convince me that you are a Vigilante as opposed to scum trying to pass yourself off as a Vigilante. Your play in this game leads me to believe you are the latter. I judge people by their play, not solely their claims. What in your play makes you Town?

[MacavityLock]

Please respond to the most important part of my post when you have time. Namely:

MacavityLock, please convince me that you are a Vigilante as opposed to scum trying to pass yourself off as a Vigilante. Your play in this game leads me to believe you are the latter. I judge people by their play, not solely their claims. What in your play makes you Town?

And what do you want me to say? I've been asking questions, relevant to the game, and relevant to my additional knowledge as vig. I've been doing my best to try to scumhunt with the additional knowledge I had without outing myself as a power role, but was sadly not able to keep it up.

My play from my first post has been entirely consistent with me as vig, and I'd ask you to re-read me that way. Give me the benefit of the doubt for one re-read, that's all I ask.

[Confucius]

My play from my first post has been entirely consistent with me as vig, and I'd ask you to re-read me that way. Give me the benefit of the doubt for one re-read, that's all I ask.

I suppose that request is reasonable enough. Such a reread shall have to wait until Monday or Tuesday, however.

Query: Are there any limitations on your claimed Vigilante ability, by chance? A simple "yes" or "no" will suffice.

[MacavityLock]

Query: Are there any limitations on your claimed Vigilante ability, by chance? A simple "yes" or "no" will suffice.

Respectfully, I would prefer not to answer this question, as I'd prefer for scum to know as little about my role as possible. I will say that if I have a limited number of kills, I have not yet run out of them, and thus my role is still potentially confirmable via my claimed kill method.

[MacavityLock]

EBWOP:

... and thus my role is still potentially confirmable via my claimed kill method.

I think more accurately, this would be "... and thus my ability is still..."

[Percy]

Hmm.

I haven't had time to write anything sophisticated, but I have some strong gut reads after letting this stew in my mind.

Confucius is strong town. I buy MacavityLock's claim, his breadcrumb, and the explanation of his playstyle, including his position on fakeclaims and nameclaims. I think there's a lot of good info we've gotten out of this exchange, including the probability of mafia fakeclaims.

I can imagine The Inquisition, as scum, claiming to have been targetted; saying nothing would have been far more suspicious, and it could flush out the vig. In my experience, if you want to limit a vig's power, you give scum BP, and if you want to increase a vig's power, you make the town BP. I think this is a question we may better be able to answer on balance later after some flips; however, I think I'm still good with a lynch on The Inquisition.

But right now, I am happier with a dead Raivann, the obv caught scum.

Unvote, Vote: Raivann

.

[MacavityLock]

I can imagine The Inquisition, as scum, claiming to have been targetted; saying nothing would have been far more suspicious, and it could flush out the vig.

By the way, the reason why Inq-scum would need to claim BP is as follows:

Case 1) Buttonmen is actually cop. Scum need to RB Buttonmen, and Buttonmen will be aware of the No Result. Thus, I will figure out something's up, as I probably couldn't also have been roleblocked, and Inq was an unlikely doc-protect.

Case 2) Buttonmen is scum, claimed cop. Overnight, scum decide that he should be claiming RBed, No Result for whatever reason. Same conclusion as Case 1.

[Confucius]

I have reread the game. I did so sooner rather than later in order to avoid being influenced by others' opinions.

I am now less certain about MacavityLock being scum. I can technically see his play as a Vigilante trying to fade into the background on Day One, and potentially trying to be helpful by killing a lurker on Night One.

However. MacavityLock has not taken enough stances during the time he has asked questions and defended himself from attacks. Please firmly tell us your top two suspects.

Unvote: MacavityLock, Vote: TheButtonMen

.

I do not endorse unofficially voting on who MacavityLock should kill tonight. This simply allows scum to coordinate or mitigate accordingly. But I do endorse suggestions -- suggestions are difficult to counteract, and suggestions are also excellent sources of information later on in games. As it happens, I have two suggestions.

1.)

Kill Kinetic.

2.)

Attempt to kill The Inquisition. The possibility that The Inquisition is bluffing about a second immunity is interesting enough to test. Seeing as The Inquisition has claimed to be told when an immunity is used up, then even if The Inquisition lives through the night we should be better informed on the morrow.

I request that players stop calling me Town. Such commentary does little but paint a target. Instead of hunting for Town, please hunt for Scum.

[Faraday]

Day 2.13 vote-count. The

"

When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives

"

votecount.

Seacore (1) [The Inquisition]
Percy (3) [Mina, Raivann, Locke Lamora]
Confucius (1) [Kinetic]
MacavityLock (1) [TheButtonMen]
The Inquistion (1) [ Seacore]
Raivann (2) [MacavityLock, Percy]
TheButtonMen (1) [Confucius]
Not voting: (0) [No one]

Deadline: March 25th @ 6pm GMT.

Checking who needs a prod now. Inquisition was prodded

[Locke Lamora]

Sorry guys, lot to catch up on, will be posting my thoughts by this evening at the latest.

[Locke Lamora]

Mac's claim makes a lot of sense to me when compared to his posts, particularly in his reaction to the nameclaim. I think suggestions are the best way to go for the NK; keeping scum guessing is much more useful here.

I'm not sure that Inq-SK is very likely but that's just based on the idea that three kills a night is a bit too much. I think he's more likely to be town than bulletproof scum but I'm still not happy with the lack of responses he's given to almost everything he's been asked lately.

Raivann's posts ever since Percy got into the game have been terrible. He hasn't responded properly to anything and his last two votes were incredibly poorly justified. Since Bogre disappeared as an easy target it's as though he hasn't got anything else to say on the subject of who to lynch or even alternative suspects.

Raivann: what do you make of Mac's claim? Who is your preferred lynch now?

[MacavityLock]

However. MacavityLock has not taken enough stances during the time he has asked questions and defended himself from attacks. Please firmly tell us your top two suspects.

However,

Vote: Raiv

. He has failed to answer questions, there is the kill method tell, and as the final straw, has taken an easy route in putting himself on my wagon. If I had a second vote, it would go to The Inq. I'm done with his lack of response to the questions put forth, and his 546 is awful.

Anything else you need?

[Mina]

Whoa. I missed a lot this weekend.

Welcome to the game, Confucius. And

unvote

, because Percy's catch-up post was very solid, even though I disagree with some of his conclusions (*cough cough, townread on MacLock, cough*).

Hmm. I know I'm giving fodder to Seacore's Mina/Raivann theory, but I've had a town read on Raivann for most of the game. Maybe it's just because I don't find the kill name slip all that damning; on the contrary, I'd think scum would be extra careful not to give away extra information (waiting until night to share his find with his scumbuddies), while a townie might be open with whatever theory popped into his head. I tend to put more stock in actions (cases, attacks, controversial opinions--which Raivann provides more of than MacavityLock does) than on details and roleclaims. And I really thought scum would have pushed my wagon on Day One rather than switch to Buttonmen. I'll admit that since Percy joined the game, Raivann's play has become increasingly erratic, though.

Raivann, can you answer MacLock's question on why you unvoted and then revoted again?

--------

I'd like to respond to a few of the posts I've missed. But MacavityLock, before I cast my vote, I'd like to ask you a few questions.

-Please explain just what in particular made you think that Inquisition was so scummy that he was worth vigging on N1. Like I said before, I can see him as a rolehunting kill, or as an SK/second Mafia family taking a shot in the dark at a pool of under-the-radar players. But a vig kill on N1? Based on the little information we had in the thread? Terrible, horrifically bad play that could have devastated the town.

-Why didn't you reveal your role when everyone was attacking Inquisition for lying about his BP claim?

I'm still sceptical. Vig is an EXTREMELY convenient claim for scum--so even if your so-called breadcrumb (mentioning the word "vigging") was intentional and not a coincidence, you could have planned to reveal vig under pressure. I agree with Confucius: your play has been much more consistent with scum than with a vig. And I question the judgment of people who have town reads on you. I think you're coming off as so oily and insincere right now that I almost need to shower from reading your posts. Case in point:

And what do you want me to say? I've been asking questions, relevant to the game, and relevant to my additional knowledge as vig. I've been doing my best to try to scumhunt with the additional knowledge I had without outing myself as a power role, but was sadly not able to keep it up

Poor MacavityLock. If you're so experienced that you know how to change your meta as scum, then why would you be so distracted by the extra information you had as a vig that you'd be completely unable to make cases on people?

I see one detail that fits your claim: picking up on Raivann's "slip" because you have your own kill method.

Except that doesn't prove you're a town-aligned vig. That just proves you have the ability to kill.

I can believe that you genuinely thought Raivann "slipped." But then why weren't you pushing Raivann's lynch today, if you thought he was scum? You asked him a couple of sideways questions, but didn't even consider voting for him until your reveal. You seemed to suspect Bogre, Inquisition, and Buttonmen more.

[MacavityLock]

-Please explain just what in particular made you think that Inquisition was so scummy that he was worth vigging on N1. Like I said before, I can see him as a rolehunting kill, or as an SK/second Mafia family taking a shot in the dark at a pool of under-the-radar players. But a vig kill on N1? Based on the little information we had in the thread? Terrible, horrifically bad play that could have devastated the town.

The job of a vig is to remove anti-town players. I would have vigged Heilo had he not been lynched. Buttonmen claimed cop. Those were my top two suspicions over the course of Day 1. Over Night 1, I re-read the game, and for their lurkiness, picked out the following 3 players as potential targets: Inq, MaB, and Bogre. Inq's switch on the nameclaim (isos 1 and 2 vs iso 5), as well as his disappearance after the nameclaim sealed it for me.

-Why didn't you reveal your role when everyone was attacking Inquisition for lying about his BP claim?

Why would I reveal my role earlier than I needed to? I would have far preferred remaining unclaimed for at least one more night.

Poor MacavityLock. If you're so experienced that you know how to change your meta as scum, then why would you be so distracted by the extra information you had as a vig that you'd be completely unable to make cases on people?

Except I wasn't. I felt pretty good about Buttonmen case on D1, as well as my D2 cases on Inq and Raiv. By the way, I've never played as a vig before, so I wanted to be very careful about not letting too much of my PR leak out.

I see one detail that fits your claim: picking up on Raivann's "slip" because you have your own kill method.

How about the fact that I was very insistent that Kin provide the reasons he brought up name-claim? I was trying to figure out whether he had knowledge of kill methods too, and if that was why he was pushing for a nameclaim.

I can believe that you genuinely thought Raivann "slipped." But then why weren't you pushing Raivann's lynch today, if you thought he was scum? You asked him a couple of sideways questions, but didn't even consider voting for him until your reveal. You seemed to suspect Bogre, Inquisition, and Buttonmen more.

I've been asking Raiv very pointed questions all day, and got very few satisfactory answers out of him. I did suspect Inq more, up until just recently.

[Mina]

Sorry, the forum keeps on timing out every time I try to respond to a post. I'm rereading now, but just to respond to MacavityLock's most recent post:

How about the fact that I was very insistent that Kin provide the reasons he brought up name-claim? I was trying to figure out whether he had knowledge of kill methods too, and if that was why he was pushing for a nameclaim.

Well, we obviously know you can kill at night whether or not you're lying about your role. (Of course, it does imply that you aren't using a fakeclaim, if you're being honest about your kill flavour. I'll admit it's a point in your favour--like Confucius' Sandor Clegane, your name is so evil that I almost can't believe you'd be evil!)

I've been asking Raiv very pointed questions all day, and got very few satisfactory answers out of him. I did suspect Inq more, up until just recently.

Why do you suspect Raivann more than Inquisition now? Is it because of his Percy vote?

Over Night 1, I re-read the game, and for their lurkiness, picked out the following 3 players as potential targets: Inq, MaB, and Bogre. Inq's switch on the nameclaim (isos 1 and 2 vs iso 5), as well as his disappearance after the nameclaim sealed it for me.

Wait a minute.

Bogre also flipflopped on the nameclaim and disappeared after it was over. IIRC, MaB was wishy-washy on the idea of a nameclaim (although I don't think he outright went against it) before changing his position...and

also

disappeared after the nameclaim.

All three players fit in the same general category: low activity, contradictory thoughts on the nameclaim. And yet you chose to target Inquisition.

See, what stands out to me is that of those three players, Inquisition would probably be the worst choice from the POV of a vig...but the

best

from the POV of a SK or second Mafia group. Bogre and MaB both came across as VIs to me--and would have probably been lynched had they not been replaced, so you'd be saving us a lynch with your kill. Inquisition, on the other hand, made a few reasonable posts early on against the nameclaim that showed he had a brain. He could have been scum...but chances were high that he was just a town player with no time on his hands, or a power role lying low.

Were I a vig who was going for the most antitown player rather than the player I suspected most, I'd have gone for Bogre or MaB--or maybe even Seacore. (I'd have avoided Buttonmen because of the cop claim.) But on D1, Inquisition wasn't the most antitown player in the game.

Inquisition was the

least lynchable

, and

most competent

of those three. In other words, the biggest threat to scum.

[MacavityLock]

I've been asking Raiv very pointed questions all day, and got very few satisfactory answers out of him. I did suspect Inq more, up until just recently.

Why do you suspect Raivann more than Inquisition now? Is it because of his Percy vote?

It's because of the Bogre unvote without providing reason, the Percy re-vote without providing reason, and the jumping onto my wagon at a perfectly opportune time for scum to do so, without providing reason.

Bogre also flipflopped on the nameclaim and disappeared after it was over. IIRC, MaB was wishy-washy on the idea of a nameclaim (although I don't think he outright went against it) before changing his position...and

also

disappeared after the nameclaim.

All three players fit in the same general category: low activity, contradictory thoughts on the nameclaim. And yet you chose to target Inquisition.

See, what stands out to me is that of those three players, Inquisition would probably be the worst choice from the POV of a vig...but the

best

from the POV of a SK or second Mafia group. Bogre and MaB both came across as VIs to me--and would have probably been lynched had they not been replaced, so you'd be saving us a lynch with your kill. Inquisition, on the other hand, made a few reasonable posts early on against the nameclaim that showed he had a brain. He could have been scum...but chances were high that he was just a town player with no time on his hands, or a power role lying low.

Were I a vig who was going for the most antitown player rather than the player I suspected most, I'd have gone for Bogre or MaB--or maybe even Seacore. (I'd have avoided Buttonmen because of the cop claim.) But on D1, Inquisition wasn't the most antitown player in the game.

Inquisition was the

least lynchable

, and

most competent

of those three. In other words, the biggest threat to scum.

I'm going to disagree with you there. Bogre did not read VI to me. Inq did enough scummy things to pique my interest, while Bogre did not do much of anything. I also must admit that I gave him benefit of the doubt because of his early Join Date. I liked MaB's first post just enough, in addition to the Sandor name-claim. As you said, it's just too evil.

[Mina]

Rereading a bit. MacavityLock, what did you mean by this:

I have been trying to prevent this all day, but Conficius did too good a job of ferreting out my breadcrumb.

Um...

Confucius didn't ferret out your Heilograph breadcrumb. This was the quote he was talking about:

There's something that seems off about this though. Inq doesn't make much sense as a maf NK target.

MacavityLock, are you saying this quote was an intentional breadcrumb?

Also, taking a step back from MacavityLock (I swear I'm not tunnel-visioned!) for a minute.

Kinetic, why haven't you ever answered this:

Other notes: Raiv is tweaking my senses, not sure why yet though.
MacLock isn't, I think this may be significant as well.

What conclusion can you draw from the fact that Raivann tweaks your senses and Mac doesn't? Be more specific than "this may be significant."

And finally, in your location analysis, you've been focusing on the Inquisition-MaB/Flutter group. Makes sense, since there should be only two members in it from your POV. But what are your opinions on the other groups? Say, the Mina-Seacore-MacLock group?

Also, why do you think MacavityLock is town? I want reasons. Concrete REASONS.

Seriously. All game, you've been tossing out statements like "X has been tweaking my radar, must take note of this," or "Hmm, Y is interesting,

very

interesting," or "Z is really bugging me...this might be notable, or it might not be."

Fucking justify your reads!

Thanks, but you never answered the first part of my quote:

I've played with MacavityLock before, his town to my scum. His prickliness and stance towards voting in that game were identical to this one. I have a mild townread.

Could you link me to the game where MacavityLock got very prickly when pressed on his vote? I'd like to see the similarities for myself. I really liked most of the points you made in that (particularly on Locke Lamora and Kinetic...and you did shake my confidence in Raivann's rock-solid townieness). But you haven't had much to say about MacavityLock, particularly his play. And in case you haven't noticed, I'm *cough* interested in MacavityLock's connections at the moment.

[Mina]

EBWOP: Um, "thanks, but you never answered the first part of my quote" was supposed to be addressed to Buttonmen. I wanted him to respond to this:

Buttonmen, can you respond to this:

Agian I'm not a full cop, I wasn't expecting A) people to believe me or B) Helio self destructing.

Huh? But what's the difference between claiming "full cop" and "limited cop"? Either way, you'd save yourself from a lynch. I doubt people who'd say "HOLY SHIT COP UNVOTE UNVOTE" would switch to "HOLY SHIT COP UNVO--wait, he has some kind of vague limitation that he refuses to describe? Never mind. He's useless to us."

And you and Heilograph (I just realized that's how he spelled his name) were pretty much in dead heat all of Day 1. How were you not in danger? You're doing the same thing I accused Bogre of doing--offering convoluted explanations when called on trivial details. Would you have admitted to expecting your lynch if I hadn't called you on it?

[MacavityLock]

Confucius didn't ferret out your Heilograph breadcrumb. This was the quote he was talking about:

There's something that seems off about this though. Inq doesn't make much sense as a maf NK target.

MacavityLock, are you saying this quote was an intentional breadcrumb?

Yes, it was. It is what I was referring to with

I also claim the Inq kill. And I was being as obvious about it as I could be without actually claiming vig.

[Mina]

Wow. I fail Quoting School forever.

I'm going to disagree with you there. Bogre did not read VI to me. Inq did enough scummy things to pique my interest, while Bogre did not do much of anything. I also must admit that I gave him benefit of the doubt because of his early Join Date. I liked MaB's first post just enough, in addition to the Sandor name-claim. As you said, it's just too evil.

State which scummy things Inquisition did that Bogre didn't do as well.

(By the way, I never answered your comment about my Bogre remark. Since that was just your gut read, I didn't think there was much to say to it other than "YMMV," "My frustration with Bogre for wasting the day was 100% genuine," and "No one knows my meta but...yeah, those kind of comments are very much in character for me, because I get a bit...um, passionate sometimes"...but hey, you wanted a response.

Also, for the record, if you're really the vig and chose your target based on the join date rather than actual play, then I'm going to strangle you after the game. Unless it turns out after the game that Inquisition was scum, in which case I'll send you flowers.)

Now I'm going out for lunch. Yay, no more spamming from me for a while. When I get back, I'll reread you in ISO to see if your play fits that of a vig breadcrumbing his vig kill.

[MacavityLock]

State which scummy things Inquisition did that Bogre didn't do as well.

Bogre barely switched on the name claim. He mentioned it once in his first post and then not again until voting Yay on the nameclaim. Inq was far more against the nameclaim, and gave real reasons to be against it in iso posts 1 and 2. In 5, he votes Yay for the reason that will promote role-playing, i.e. shitty reason. His switch was far more egregious than Bogre's. I also feel like the first two paragraphs of his iso 6 are fluff analysis, and not all that helpful.

[Seacore]

Mina, I think that we should drop Mac for now. He's given good enough reasons for his actions.

Do I believe him? Not completely, but at least he's providing reads, is potentially on our side with a PR and must justify his NK every night.

Whereas we have other issues.
We have Button and Inq who have lots of questions to answer about their dodginess and we have Raivann and Kinetic who are also dodging questions.

Personally I'd be happy with Raivann or Inq getting lynched tonight, with the other one getting Vigged. Other Vig targets are Kinetic and, to a lesser extent, Button.

[Confucius]

However. MacavityLock has not taken enough stances during the time he has asked questions and defended himself from attacks. Please firmly tell us your top two suspects.

However,

Vote: Raiv

. He has failed to answer questions, there is the kill method tell, and as the final straw, has taken an easy route in putting himself on my wagon. If I had a second vote, it would go to The Inq. I'm done with his lack of response to the questions put forth, and his 546 is awful.

Anything else you need?

Yes, this is precisely what I was looking for. Apologies.

~

On the subject of TheButtonMen, I would like to refer to my original stance. Please contemplate:

If TheButtonMen were to say tomorrow that he had a guilty result on somebody, would you follow him?

My answer is still "no." If TheButtonMen is Town, the only thing he is doing for us is soaking up a role-blocking. If TheButtonMen is scum, then I would rather him lynched now.

His play makes me believe that he is scum who has been getting by on a convenient claim, while hoping to draw out our real investigative role(s) on his way down. Now that he doesn't think he will be lynched today, he is more content to make cases against people. I would not be surprised to learn that he was directed to play more forcefully overnight by scumpartners, if he has any.

[Seacore]

I agree with most of this Con, but I'm willing to give him one more night.

I don't have a straight yes or no answer to the question you ask. It would depend on who he had investigated.

If he's mafia, then we lose nothing by trying to hunt for his scum buddies instead of him.
If he's an SK, then the mafia RB will likely target him again the same as last night.
If he's town, even if we eventually lynch him instead of his target, we get more information.

I don't believe he's the best lynch for today. I believe that falls on Inq or Raiv

[Confucius]

I respectfully disagree. If TheButtonmen is scum of any sort, then not lynching him today allows him to use his influence and his vote to lynch an innocent today. It then allows him to use any scum abilities he may have overnight. It then gives him an opportunity to lynch a second innocent tomorrow, with more force (by claiming a guilty result), while possibly in a Lynch-or-Lose situation.

When I believe I have nailed scum, I very much dislike deferring lynches until later in the game without a good reason. We have already deferred his lynch once, and that has done nothing but result in Heilograph being lynched in a scrambled wagon at deadline. Had we instead lynched TheButtonmen yesterday, we may have never lynched Heilograph at all.

Scum who live a day longer than they should affect games in unforeseen ways.

~

I don't believe he's the best lynch for today. I believe that falls on Inq or Raiv

I would like you to meditate on the simplicity of my suggestion of having MacavityLock attempt to nightkill The Inquisition before you again suggest lynching The Inquisition.