Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Heaven forbid I spend two days visiting with my family. Hito, sod off, I'm pretty sure I've been at least or more active than both you and Trollblag today. Furthermore, I shouldn't have to pontificate on how just because VPB and Trollblag decided to wallpost somehow makes them more town then an incisive, but smaller post like my ISO 60.

Zorblag’s five post wall where he finally contributes today is just super dense and not terribly well structured, but I’ll try to pull out the major themes that interest me.

I understand Zorblag’s argument about the night kills, but I still see confirmed town making LYLO as the worst situation for scum; especially as no one here is irrational enough to speed-vote and put the town in danger. There’s also the fact that if non-masons die then town would likely explore the possibility that they were killed for other reasons which could theoretically lead town back to critical information to clear or condemn people. Thus I think this argument as trying to cast suspicion on Hito is possible, but unlikely because of the greater risks born from not killing masons.

I also think Zorblag’s argument insinuating that I was busing Hito also falls completely flat. The crux of this argument appears to be that a SC lynch was inevitable and thus I took no risk by positioning myself against it. This is fraudulent as when I took my initial stance against lynching SC and thus towards Hito, SC was at somewhere between L-4 and L-2 (vote counts are hard to come by in this section); both Hito and Vi had unvoted SC; while Hito was in an equal sort of position with SC pulling his vote off of him. There was the Vi and SC movement onto VPB at that point where I voted for Hito. At that time, any one lynch was far from inevitable as we had three separate wagons at L-3. Thus his contention that I bore no risk with my votes is complete bullshit and revisionist history. It’s also interesting, because this stance allows him to shuck the responsibility of lynching SC despite riding Hito the entire way and expressing a commitment to lynching Hito up through his second to last post of that day because a SC lynch was “inevitable” .

~~~

And to answer the troll’s latest question: yes, I think a Vi/Hito scum team is possible but considering those two are my least likely to be scum reads I find that pairing to be very unlikely.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Yes, I waited to see what Zorblag would say; in a recent newbie game I voted in LYLO to a large degree out of spite because the player was not contributing (there were certainly other legit reasons to vote him, but the timing was driven by his absence). He flipped town, we lost the game. I refuse to do the same here and again it's not something I'm going to apologize for.

However, I see nothing from Zorblag to suggest he isn't scum. He positions himself against me so that when I do what I'm going to do below he can respond in kind and not appear to be a hypocrite, but the arguments he created against me are built on a completely fraudulent base. Zorblag's D3 play is what really drives my vote; he's completely dedicated to a Hito lynch with an early vote and never an unvote. But by the end he simply jumps off to facilitate a town lynch and then later tries to position himself as simply a tool of others' actions (the SC lynch was inevitable) trying to avoid responsibility for his own.

At some point in this game someone is going to have to suck it up; have courage that they're right and vote. That person is me, that time is now.

Vote: Zorblag

[Zorblag]

@Debonair Danny DiPietro, your characterization of day three really doesn't match what actually happened there. You most certainly did hold off on your vote until SerialClergyman was the most likely lynch; VP Baltar and Sando had gone through their arguments and had both largely settled there, Vi and hitogoroshi were both pretty clearly not going to move to hitogoroshi at that time and the only other vote that might have gone back that way was really Albert B. Rampage. I said at the start of the day that the best lynches were hitogoroshi and SerialClergyman, the fact that I didn't move my vote prior the hammer doesn't do anything to make my move at the end any sort of surprise. Clearly the most likely lynch to happen by the time you cast your vote was SerialClergyman and you cast it in a way that very conveniently kept you off another mislynch. If you're scum with hitogoroshi it was a good move that probably wouldn't get a team mate mislynched (though even if it did you'd look even better going forward) and if you're scum with anyone else it simply served to keep your record spotless.

You're saying that scum would be less safe leaving confirmed town in the game than anything else they could have done because non-mason kills would cause us to explore the reasons that the night kills were made and track back to critical information. Regardless of who the kills were we should be looking back at the motives and trying to find that information. The idea that mason's being killed would avoid that for scum in some way makes no sense. You also seem to be assuming that the scum must have been fairly sure who the masons were which I can see for some scum teams (most easily you and Vi) but which in general is a bit of a stretch based on the information that I could see when looking over that myself. Scum wouldn't have needed a quick lynch to get a mislynch from a living mason; if Sando or Albert B. Rampage were likely to provide one leaving them alive would have been the right move for scum to make.

A particularly nice touch in your argument here is that you've tried to set this up as a ploy on my part for me having an excuse to vote for you after you cast a vote for me. Unless I get hammered by a scum team that you're letting win here of course I should be voting for you if you leave a vote on me. I'll see what you do here and what the other players choose to add at this point but I'm in no hurry to cast a vote when I think that there's still discussion that should still happen and there's a chance that you're town and will avoid an immediate loss by removing that vote (it's unlikely but I've certainly seen town play scummy end games before.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@hitogoroshi, so looking back I'm having trouble figuring out exactly why you think Vi is so likely to be town. If you're not scum then my best bet for the scum team is Debonair Danny DiPietro and Vi. Is there anything other than agreeing with you and SerialClergyman yesterday and Albert B. Rampage's thinking that he's town that stands out as town play from him for you?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@Debonair Danny DiPietro, your characterization of day three really doesn't match what actually happened there. You most certainly did hold off on your vote until SerialClergyman was the most likely lynch; VP Baltar and Sando had gone through their arguments and had both largely settled there, Vi and hitogoroshi were both pretty clearly not going to move to hitogoroshi at that time and the only other vote that might have gone back that way was really Albert B. Rampage. I said at the start of the day that the best lynches were hitogoroshi and SerialClergyman, the fact that I didn't move my vote prior the hammer doesn't do anything to make my move at the end any sort of surprise. Clearly the most likely lynch to happen by the time you cast your vote was SerialClergyman and you cast it in a way that very conveniently kept you off another mislynch. If you're scum with hitogoroshi it was a good move that probably wouldn't get a team mate mislynched (though even if it did you'd look even better going forward) and if you're scum with anyone else it simply served to keep your record spotless.

Is still bullshit and maybe the SC lynch was inevitable because you were simply gunning for a lynch and you didn't care whether it was Hito or SC, but from my perspective the day was still wide open with three competing bandwagons. And you can throw around names but with eight alive and five to lynch, with Hito and SC had seemingly come to a detente and I wasn't voting for SC, so for it to be inevitable you had to read everyone else as intending to lynch SC. This is despite Vi being off on an equally large VPB bandwagon and you still voting for Hito. Additionally, I think I made it clear on D1 that I don't give a fuck what anyone else says about inevitability. I tried to get Amished back on the xRecx bandwagon despite the fact that the charlatan lynch was "inevitable". It's a stupid defeatist attitude and completely irrelevant when there isn't a deadline.

You're saying that scum would be less safe leaving confirmed town in the game than anything else they could have done because non-mason kills would cause us to explore the reasons that the night kills were made and track back to critical information. Regardless of who the kills were we should be looking back at the motives and trying to find that information. The idea that mason's being killed would avoid that for scum in some way makes no sense. You also seem to be assuming that the scum must have been fairly sure who the masons were which I can see for some scum teams (most easily you and Vi) but which in general is a bit of a stretch based on the information that I could see when looking over that myself. Scum wouldn't have needed a quick lynch to get a mislynch from a living mason; if Sando or Albert B. Rampage were likely to provide one leaving them alive would have been the right move for scum to make.

The key assumption scum would have to make is that Sando and/or ABR would not consider other options. This is clearly irrational, they are both experienced and competent players. Just look at how this game has actually gone to see examples of why making such an assumption makes no sense. Given that it only makes sense to clear the confirmed innocents from the board.

[Zorblag]

@Debonair Danny DiPietro, wait a minute. Are you actually trying to say that you thought that the VP Baltar lynch was anywhere near as likely as either the hitogoroshi or SerialClergyman wagons? That's just not particularly believable at all. We were looking at a choice that was almost certainly going to be between the other two. You delayed throwing a hat in the ring until after things were largely settled in a way that was going to keep you off the lynch. Now you're trying to use the fact that my top two choices for lynches that day (from the start of the day) were the two options that it came down to against me by saying that I opportunisticly went with the SerialClergyman vote just because it would be a lynch. When I changed my vote it was because SerialClergyman was a reasonable lynch, and there had been what felt like enough discussion to be able to make informed decisions as we went forward. I did think that hitogoroshi was a bit better in terms of a lynch but I spent time that day asking questions designed to see if SerialClergyman or hitogoroshi were displaying the sort of reasoning that should change my mind. Neither of them were. I certainly had no problem settling for my number two choice in that situation.

As far as Albert B. Rampage and Sando go even if the scum were sure they were the masons they didn't have to be sure that they wouldn't consider other options to make them possibilities to leave alive. Certainly they're going to consider other options, anyone would. The scum just had to think that they'd be reasonably likely to end up hitting town after they did their considering. Insisting both that the only thing it makes sense for scum to do is take out masons and that they had figured out who the masons were makes no sense. That seems to be the position that you're taking here. For all I know you're right about the assertion and the kills were just made because the scum had the mason's nailed. That doesn't mean that we should be assuming that's how it went down. Confirmed town are not always the best lynch and this is a situation where that's got a real possibility of being the case.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@Debonair Danny DiPietro, wait a minute. Are you actually trying to say that you thought that the VP Baltar lynch was anywhere near as likely as either the hitogoroshi or SerialClergyman wagons? That's just not particularly believable at all. We were looking at a choice that was almost certainly going to be between the other two. You delayed throwing a hat in the ring until after things were largely settled in a way that was going to keep you off the lynch. Now you're trying to use the fact that my top two choices for lynches that day (from the start of the day) were the two options that it came down to against me by saying that I opportunisticly went with the SerialClergyman vote just because it would be a lynch. When I changed my vote it was because SerialClergyman was a reasonable lynch, and there had been what felt like enough discussion to be able to make informed decisions as we went forward. I did think that hitogoroshi was a bit better in terms of a lynch but I spent time that day asking questions designed to see if SerialClergyman or hitogoroshi were displaying the sort of reasoning that should change my mind. Neither of them were. I certainly had no problem settling for my number two choice in that situation.

Zorblag, I'm pretty sure you know this, but just because you said, "we're either lynching y or z" doesn't mean that instantly becomes the reality of the situation. Did I think the VPB lynch was likely? Not particularly, but when I made my vote I specifically stood against it to try and help kill it from gaining momentum, because it might not have been likely but it certainly was viable.

And let me quote your post again, "@Vi, my vote is still on hitogoroshi because I think he's still the most likely to be scum." There are not caveats or quid pro quos in that statement, merely Hito is scummiest. You changed your vote out of ill intent or laziness and I don't believe that the Zorblag who would drop five consecutive wall posts in LYLO is that lazy.

As far as Albert B. Rampage and Sando go even if the scum were sure they were the masons they didn't have to be sure that they wouldn't consider other options to make them possibilities to leave alive. Certainly they're going to consider other options, anyone would. The scum just had to think that they'd be reasonably likely to end up hitting town after they did their considering. Insisting both that the only thing it makes sense for scum to do is take out masons and that they had figured out who the masons were makes no sense. That seems to be the position that you're taking here. For all I know you're right about the assertion and the kills were just made because the scum had the mason's nailed. That doesn't mean that we should be assuming that's how it went down. Confirmed town are not always the best lynch and this is a situation where that's got a real possibility of being the case.

Whatever, chief, I kill confirmed townies first, second, and third and I bet everyone else in this game agrees with me. I've left players alive into LYLO as scum and have them pivot on me from not suspicious on me to advocating my lynch, I've seen townies kill one half of a intra-voting pair for the WIFOM, I've seen them leave them alive to try and get them to vote for each other. There is extremely minimal value in trying to predict other players behaviors, especially in LYLO when re-reads become mandatory and all of your assumptions have to be challenged. There is huge value in eliminating players who no one will vote for. If this is the crux of your argument against Hito, it fails, hard.

[Zorblag]

@Debonair Danny DiPietro, certainly saying that one of two players is going to be the one lynched doesn't make it true. Who's arguing that it is? You're right that you didn't support the VP Baltar wagon. That is part of the reason that the wagon wasn't viable but even with your support there's no reason to think that it was going anywhere. In any case, none of that changes the fact that you came in late in the day to join the hitogoroshi wagon at a time when doing so probably lead to the SerialClergyman wagon happening in a way that let you point back at yet another mislynch you weren't on.

Have you looked at the context in which Vi was asking why my vote was still on hitogoroshi just after making their case that hitogoroshi wasn't scum. It's a case that I didn't agree with. I took the question to mean why was I still voting for hitogoroshi when he wasn't scum to which my response was that I did still find him the most likely to be scum. Do you think that I hadn't expressed suspicion of SerialClergyman prior to that?

As for scum not necessarily killing confirmed townies you're welcome to ask Vi what his kill at the end of Tofu Mafia should have been. Given what he's had to say about it in that thread I'd be surprised if his answer was the confirmed townie. I think that you should be a good enough player to realize that there are times when it's not the best move to make. Players can pivot on you from not suspecting you to advocating your lynch regardless of whether there are confirmed town in the game and there are definitely times when you're better off leaving them around over the other choices.

Having said that, hitogoroshi being scum doesn't necessitate he and his partner not wanting to kill the masons at all. Sando and Albert B. Rampage were both masons as well players who were on his case had him high on their list of suspects regardless of SerialClergyman's flip. They would be great kills for him to make and he'd have the mason hunting as a screen for anything else. I was bringing up the possibility of not killing the masons as something that a scum team that didn't include him should have been considering if they were looking for the ideal play for today. The stance your working with now might mean that I was being overly generous.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Here's what I find interesting, that you're arguing with me for show. If your opinion is that I'm scum then why are you not voting for me. If your opinion is that I'm misguided town then why are you not trying to convince me who is scum if you are not scum and I am not scum. Instead you're content to merely sit back and argue my points; now since I'm the one bringing these points up, clearly I believe them so simply disagreeing with me as you've done gets me none closer to unvoting you as would be the clear goal of the second stated belief. Thus, you're clearly playing to the outside audience to gain support because I see little evidence that you're actually interested in persuading me of anything.

[Zorblag]

@Debonair Danny DiPietro, you don't worry, you've done a fine job of pretty much removing any doubt I might have had that you're scum. Where you say I've simply disagreed with you I've actually been pointing out what's wrong with the arguments that you're using. If you were town you should be somewhat interested in hearing why what you're trying to say might be wrong here but instead you've just been interested in trying to twist things into a case against me. You didn't cast your vote with any interest in being convinced to change it, you cast it because you were ready to commit to trying to get my lynched.

You're are right that I'm interested in the rest of the game seeing how this discussion has gone. It's LyLo and I will need to convince them that you're not making sincere arguments because I can't afford to be a mislynch.

On the other hand, I haven't got an great reason to hurry a vote at this point. The reactions from the other players at this stage should be valuable for tomorrow assuming we make it to then. I'm certainly capable of thinking that you must be scum without needing to cast a vote. Town controls the pace of the game today and there's still at least some left that needs to be played out. When I think that's happened I'll be there with my vote.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Vi]

Of the two people locked in Mortal Kombat right now, I'm still leaning toward lynching the troll. A lot of that conversation before DDD showed up seemed intent on wiping away my Town reads (along with everyone else's). I'm still not getting "sophisticated scum" reads on hito, and I still don't like his way of throwing votes down and not mentioning them for entire Days.

I disagree strongly with DDD's argument that the SerialClergyman lynch was inevitable. If it wasn't inevitable, I wouldn't have given up and joined it. Let's look at where everyone stood at the end of D3.
(rows lynching columns)
[mrow]Name[col]Troll[col]VPB[col]hito[col]DDD[col]Vi[col]ABR[col]Sando[col]SC Troll[col]N[col]N[col]Y[col]N[col]N[col]N[col] [col]Y VPB[col] [col]N[col]Y[col] [col]N[col]N[col] [col]Y hito[col]Y[col]Y[col]N[col] [col]N[col]Y[col]N[col]N DDD[col] [col]N[col]Y[col]N[col] [col] [col] [col]N Vi[col]Y[col]Y[col]N[col]N[col]N[col] [col]N[col] ABR[col]N[col]N[col]Y[col]Y[col]N[col]N[col]N[col]Y Sando[col]N[col]N[col]N[col]N[col]N[col]N[col]N[col]Y SC[col] [col]Y[col]N[col] [col] [col] [col] [col]N
You can see that VP Baltar and hito were already shut out by people who

openly refused

to vote those ways. With my vote, the SerialClergyman wagon was plausible, barely. No other wagon was possible... except possibly Troll, ironically.

There's no particular reason for Troll NOT to cast a vote right now. As I said on D2, which idiot Townie is going to quickhammer (and stop discussion)?

Troll, is there any particular "silver bullet" about DDD that you find most incriminating?

And - why do there only seem to be two people in this topic - again? I'd like for the two absentees to come have their own say about what's going on.~

[VP Baltar]

Wait, so Troll was voted and hasn't been lynched yet? Interesting.

I'm finally semi-caught up on my work. I'm going to make some dinner and then I'll give you guys some content. Sorry for the delay.

[Zorblag]

@Vi, what is it that you dislike about me not talking much about my votes after I cast them exactly? I'm not usually interested in trying to persuade people to make certain lynches until late in the game. I cast my votes for where I think they make sense and then unless that changes I leave them there. This game the vote on charlatan was weak but my discussion with him following that convinced me it was a reasonable place for it to stay. Day two I wasn't around to do much talking at all. Day three I spent my time mostly talking to and about my top suspects. I'm more interested in seeing the reasons that others have for casting votes (and objecting when I think they're being cast poorly) at those stages of the game than reiterating the reasons I have to place my vote.

As for Debonair Danny DiPietro, no, there's no specific silver bullet for me to share with you so far as he goes. The shape of the game now left him as my top suspect like I went over last page. His vote for me and then the nature of our discussion this page certainly have me convinced that he's scum but unless you agree that's he's trying to spin what happened day three in a way that serves simply to attack rather than with any open mind to my alignment (and apparently you don't given how you've opened your last post) that doesn't do it. I can point out his overall detached play, the lack of cases that he's made in general throughout the game, his late attack at the end of day three yesterday, his convenient change of position on hitogoroshi from reasons that involved no pairs at all for guilt to entirely connection based reasons for innocence and the recent insistence that the only explanation for the night kills is mason hunting among other things as reasons that I don't like his play but there's no one thing that would clearly indicate that he's scum on it's own.

Up until Albert B. Rampage was killed I thought there was a fair chance that Debonair Danny DiPietro was a mason. I had it narrowed down to one of he and Albert B. Rampage towards the end (though they pretty clearly couldn't be masons together.) I gave my talk about him day three as a last screen about how I'd been treating him (not wanting to talk about him prior to that) and in fact at the very end of the day I thought that it was a bit more likely that it was in fact him that had the role. Albert B. Rampage seemed to be fishing for a night kill by insinuating that he was on to something he wasn't sharing which I've done multiple times in the past as a vanilla townie trying to draw a night kill. Debonair Danny DiPietro being a mason trying not to draw attention via any sort of impressive scum hunting prior to endgame and then using his confirmed status as a mason seemed like it would be valuable. Without that mason possibility I have a lot more trouble liking his play before today.

You didn't answer my previous question to you long those lines. What is it that you like about his play specifically other than the fact that he's been off the mislynches and on the scum lynch?

Also, I can think of a reason that I'd want to have my vote on Debonair Danny DiPietro right away as scum in this situation (that would give any partner other than him a chance to easily quick hammer if someone else voted with me) but I can't really think of a reason that it would benefit me to do so as town. As you say, there's no real danger of town quick hammering and further, if I'm completely wrong and he really is town somehow then we've lost anyhow as it's just a matter of scum getting coordinate a lynch on me. Why should I want to cast a vote quickly here though? Does it hurt to leave it off in some way? From what you know of my play do you expect me to cast a vote quickly in this situation?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Wait, so Troll was voted and hasn't been lynched yet? Interesting.

How so? Only Zorblag and I were seemingly around yesterday and you and Vi just showed up with one post apiece today. Assuming the worst case of I'm town and Zorblag town, the only way a lynch could've occurred would be if you and Vi are scum together and got real aggressive.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, I'm going to keep this semi-brief since I'm tired as hell and you guys seem to be doing more than your share to wall it up at this point.

@Vi - you know, as I'm reading your posts, one of the things that is starting to bother me a touch is how much you seem to be trying to bully people toward hurried conclusions. I mean, even when you're like "deadline is only six days away"...well so what? To me, that's sufficient time to reach a reasonable conclusion considering most everyone is moving toward something (sans DDD it seems, though apparently he turns that around in the next page). My question for you is why are you in such a hurry? Why haven't you voted when you've already declared hito and DDD to be obv town? Seems to me like you have this game wrapped up in a neat little package and I don't understand your hesitation considering how confident you claim to be.

Why is it that he couldn't be scum mostly coasting through the game with no huge plan outside an xRECKONERx bus and then simply not participating much during days beyond that because it was working? Perhaps I've got the basis for your read wrong but I'm not really seeing all that much you think he's done other than being on the right wagons that makes him seem town to you.

Bingo. The excuse making for DDD's play flabbergasts me. Vi, how much experience do you have with DDD? Would you say he's an adaptive player?

Heaven forbid I spend two days visiting with my family. Hito, sod off, I'm pretty sure I've been at least or more active than both you and Trollblag today. Furthermore, I shouldn't have to pontificate on how just because VPB and Trollblag decided to wallpost somehow makes them more town then an incisive, but smaller post like my ISO 60.

This not only is over the top, but also once again indicative of you trying to claim more credit for the discussion than you really have been doing. I didn't like it with your Reck wagon BS and I don't like it here.

Is still bullshit and maybe the SC lynch was inevitable because you were simply gunning for a lynch and you didn't care whether it was Hito or SC, but from my perspective the day was still wide open with three competing bandwagons.

You're referring to my wagon as the third? You seriously thought that was a viable lynch at that point?

--edit-- I guess Troll asked this already.

Not particularly, but when I made my vote I specifically stood against it to try and help kill it from gaining momentum, because it might not have been likely but it certainly was viable.

I guess it's arguing semantics, but aren't likely and viable close enough in meaning here? I don't think anything about that wagon was likely to happen, particularly considering neither of them had a good reason for being there in the first place.

In terms of the Troll-DDD spat, I side with Troll. Sorry Vi, but I think his interpretation of events is far closer to my own and DDD definitely seems to be slinging shit as much as possible and skewing his play throughout this game as somehow being beneficial to the town. Additionally, I think I've had a little bit of experience with Troll scum in recent times via his hydra and I just haven't had that same feeling from him all game. Perhaps it's because he's not in the hydra, but he is generally the predominant poster in that pairing anyhow, so I tend to think it's his alignment that is different here.

My top pick for scum is DDD. I'm not entirely sure on a partner.

[hitogoroshi]

Well.

I went to Nebraska from MN right after my last post here (I didn't mention the V/LA because of it's brevity.) And I've been thinking about this situation the whole time and I'm still not sure.

I had the huge feeling that DDD simply was vaguely waiting for someone else to commit, but then he jumped in and threw down the first vote of the day. So I've been mulling on that.

The one thing I think we can safely avoid is the idea of 'Zorblag wasn't quicklynched, DDD must be scum." This has been a slow, steady town and I think a hasty quickvote to L-1 would be easy to recognize as such.

Vi, VP, how likely do you think it is that DDD and Zorblag are actually scum busing each other?

If those two aren't busing, the buddy situation is one of these:

1) Zorblag-scum's buddy is VP. VP has called Zorblag his second choice for scum after DDD. They win with a DDD mislynch.

2) Zorblag-scum's buddy is Vi. Vi has called Zorblag her top suspect. Either she will follow through and bus, or find a reason to mislynch DDD for the win. With a bus, she'd probably leave me alive and get me to mislynch DDD or VP.

3) DDD-scum's buddy is VP. VP will either find a reason not to follow through on his stated suspicions on DDD and try to mislynch Zorblag for the win, or bus DDD and do something after that. I don't know who he'd leave alive, honestly.

4) DDD-scum's buddy is Vi. Vi has given a town read on DDD. They win with a Zorblag mislynch.

I wish I could say I had a really good idea where I'm leaning, but I don't. There's also a blind spot in that I have no real experience with the idea of lylo busing. The two big things now are figuring out the possibility of double-busing (yes, that also makes the lynch trivial because we hit scum either way, but I'm going for the whole scumteam with this analysis) and seeing if voting patterns knock out at least one of 1-4 in any way.

I know deadline is close and I wish I had something decisive right now, but I can't help but feel there's something lurking in the voting patterns that I can combine with how the accusations solidified to win this.

If someone has a bit of time, I'd really appreciate a quick little reference of the times any of the living players voted for each other. I know that's a lot to ask for but it's also a lot to do and if anyone has a framework or anything in their notes I would be a happy hito.

[VP Baltar]

Vi, VP, how likely do you think it is that DDD and Zorblag are actually scum busing each other?

It's a possibility I have definitely considered, though Troll's posts seem logical and not like faked scum attacks. Not that he's incapable of doing that.

@Vi - is your wiki up to date with all of the games you are currently playing in? I'm assuming it is, but I just wanted to check something.

[Zorblag]

@hitogoroshi, should I take it from your last post that you're not opposed to Vi on a scum team anymore? Is it just that Debonair Danny DiPietro and I are now so clearly opposed that's caused that or is there anything else that you're not mentioning?

It's interesting that you've spent today focused almost entirely on possible scum teams. I don't think that it's a bad place to look and I did largely try to figure out who I should be looking at and why based on what scum teams might make sense from my perspective. I'm a bit surprised that you're doing that mostly to the exclusion of looking at individuals as potential scum (the major exceptions seem to be Vi up until your last post, your comments on my likelihood of being scum on my own and some dislike of Debonair Danny DiPietro's play) and that you haven't said anything about trying to use connections with the one confirmed scum that we have in the game, xRECKONERx. Do you think that you're more likely to find the remaining scum pair just looking at connections among those that are still alive then you are to find a single member of the scum team by looking at their overall game play? Do you think that connections between currently living members are more important than those between people who are alive and the confirmed scum/town/masons who are dead?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[hitogoroshi]

@hitogoroshi, should I take it from your last post that you're not opposed to Vi on a scum team anymore? Is it just that Debonair Danny DiPietro and I are now so clearly opposed that's caused that or is there anything else that you're not mentioning?

Vi is still my strongest town read, but I'm out for completeness. I started barring Vi from all scumteams because it was a place to go. However, I then found out it was difficult to say 'there is no way either of these two are a scumteam' at that point in the day. Now, with more suspicions being aired, it's easier to see who the mislynch targets would be for certain scumteams - a post like 1290 simply wouldn't have been possible to make at the beginning of the day - and I no longer need the crutch of excluding someone from my analysis. I can mentally handle running the possibilities that include Vi as scum, and I intend to. Now, my opinion before looking at the connections is that a Vi scumteam is unlikely - but whether or not I think Vi is scum with X or Y is completely separate from whether or not I think Vi is scum, if that makes any sense. This is a chance for me to challenge my own reads.

I do think we're more likely to find the scum pair than a single scum. There is also the factor weighing on my mind that, as the player that the town has the least desire to lynch, I'm the most likely nightkill. This is why I don't want to just find one scum - while in some cases it's unnecessary effort to look for the scumteam before the lynch, here it seems finding the scumteam will be how I find the scum, and settling for just one stands a high chance of making me the nk who didn't do a damn to help in lylo 2.

I will say that I probably need to give everyone's reactions to Reck a good re-reading and add that in my analysis. I personally don't know of any significant tells to look for in people's interactions with masons and I think incorporating that information would lead to confirmation bias more than anything.

I'm about to go take a nap because I am a lazy college student, but let me preview my thoughts a bit so I'll be motivated into finishing them as soon as I wake up. If Zorblag is scum, he bussed Reck, and he bussed Reck early. Generally, scum like to be at odds with each other, and I think Zorblag's super early bus would make the most sense with Vi's lack of desire to lynch Reck. This would be a point for theory 2. However, I also need to look back and see if DDD or VP expressed any opposition to Zorblag's case on Reck before a Reck lynch seemed so popular (that is, D1) and changed after - that'd be a pretty fair bit of weight for them being buddies in my mind.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Am I the only one who feels like VPB's comments in regards to me almost seem more like criticisms of my play as poor rather than an assessment of my play as scummy?

[hitogoroshi]

Troll's first big shot at Reck was post 531.

Before I read past, let me prep what I think reactions would be to not deal with confirmation bias. (This is mostly for my sake, you guys have no way to verify I'm doing this post in order.)

If I was scum, my first instinct would be to complete ignore talking about Reck. However, it's easy enough for a townie to ignore Reck so this isn't too strong of a scumtell. Otherwise, I'd probably go for the general rule of not doing what my scumbuddy is, and attack Zorblag for his argument on Reck. I would not want to loudly agree with Zorblag that Reck is scummy because a D1 double-bus of Reck just makes no sense to me, and scum generally (again, in my experience only) don't like to parrot each other.

Posts after Zorblag's anti-Reck thingymajigger.

VP's response is to agree with Zorblag's case but not actually hop, citing a preference of charlatan. I could see VP doing this if Zorblag is town, by prepping himself for a bus tomorrow, but I don't think Zorblag-scum and VP-scum would begin to foreshadow a bus D1. Point against Zorblag/VP.

(Digression: In the vein of Whose's Line is it Anyway, the points do not actually matter. I won't actually summing the points for and against as numbers, it's an indicator of my thoughts but not all are weighted equally.)

Vi attacks Reck's post but ignores Zorblag's points, and doesn't seem to want to convert to a lynch. This strikes me as really weird, and while Vi's actions might mesh with Zorblag's D2 as potential scum (one bussing, one stay off of the wagon) it doesn't make too much sense here that she'd want to attack her scumbuddies posts for fun but not mention acting on it. Point against Zorblag/Vi.

DDD didn't post at all for the rest of that day! I was about to call him on it but then I looked at Vi's unofficial vote count. And...think I found a thing.

DDD was voting Reck really, really goddamn early D1. Pages and pages before Zorblag's accusations. Could this be a bus? Yeah - in a twilight zone of a game, with both Zorblag and DDD voting early, I can't throw that out. But both of them? BOTH OF THEM, bussing their scumbuddy TOGETHER, well before any pressure?

Really don't think I believe that. So hey, I don't need your opinions on those two lylo bussing each other any more.

I'm almost certain DDD and Zorblag are not scum together.

---

Here's something I feel like trying. It goes off of the same principle of differences, but this time applied to one person. With three scum, I feel pretty safe in saying that the scum don't want to put their two buddies in the same category on their list. It's nothing definitive but it's a little psychology back-door I can try.

SCUMMEH:
charlatan
PorkchopExpress
DDD

PRETTEH SCUMMEH:
VP Baltar
Sando

NEUTRAL:
Amished
Ojanen
Albert B Rampage

TOWNEE:
Zorblag
Vi
SC

There's a point against Zorblag/Vi. Not the biggest point, but a point.

Speaking of Reck's thing, let's remember what he died with: 'lynch DDD or VPB after I go.' Normally I'd call the difference thing again, but this action was ENTIRELY for WIFOM purposes (seeing as we're obviously not listening to him if he's scum) and the fact that DDD pointed out the 'one on, one off' idea that is usually true in a case where it'd be self-serving it makes me want to call this a point for theory 3. Again, a small point, but I'm willing to exploit every little thing.

Now taking suggestions for new avenues of attack, but even without suggestions, I'll have more tomorrow, hopefully at a reasonable, pre-dinner time.

[VP Baltar]

Am I the only one who feels like VPB's comments in regards to me almost seem more like criticisms of my play as poor rather than an assessment of my play as scummy?

Really? That's how you're interpreting it?

[Zorblag]

@hitogoroshi, I've been drinking pretty heavily tonight but so far as I can tell from the pair analysis you're doing everything that you found in the first section you did (looking at how people reacted after I expressed suspicion of xRECKONERx) that you're using as a point against them being my partner could also be used as a point against them being Debonair Danny DiPietro's partner as well. As you noted, he was on the xRECKONERx case even before I was. That's actually been something VP Baltar has brought up previously (I'm thinking the beginning of the day today offhand) which I'd think you should be aware of prior to that last post.

I'm all for you looking through pairs of partners but I also want you to come to conclusions in the process. If you're going to argue that pairs are the way to go then you have to be able to get results from looking at them more than you would individuals. Right now it feels like you're wasting time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Vi]

I'm not usually interested in trying to persuade people to make certain lynches until late in the game. I cast my votes for where I think they make sense and then unless that changes I leave them there.

I don't buy this. Finding scum, even if you're correct, is only half of a Townie's job.

Day three I spent my time mostly talking to and about my top suspects.

If you're referring to hito, this is a lie.

I can point out his overall detached play, the lack of cases that he's made in general throughout the game, his late attack at the end of day three yesterday, his convenient change of position on hitogoroshi from reasons that involved no pairs at all for guilt to entirely connection based reasons for innocence and the recent insistence that the only explanation for the night kills is mason hunting

Have you ever played with DDD before?

You didn't answer my previous question to you long those lines. What is it that you like about his play specifically other than the fact that he's been off the mislynches and on the scum lynch?

Really that's it. It's strong on its own.

As you say, there's no real danger of town quick hammering and further, if I'm completely wrong and he really is town somehow then we've lost anyhow as it's just a matter of scum getting coordinate a lynch on me. Why should I want to cast a vote quickly here though? Does it hurt to leave it off in some way? From what you know of my play do you expect me to cast a vote quickly in this situation?

Well, as you can probably see by now nobody has sw00ped in for the quickhammer, so we already know that one of you and DDD are scum. Unless you're suggesting that we should lynch someone else today, there's no reason for your vote to not be locked on at this point. Sure, it doesn't hurt to not vote, but it's redundant.

---

@Vi - you know, as I'm reading your posts, one of the things that is starting to bother me a touch is how much you seem to be trying to bully people toward hurried conclusions. I mean, even when you're like "deadline is only six days away"...well so what? To me, that's sufficient time to reach a reasonable conclusion considering most everyone is moving toward something (sans DDD it seems, though apparently he turns that around in the next page). My question for you is why are you in such a hurry? Why haven't you voted when you've already declared hito and DDD to be obv town? Seems to me like you have this game wrapped up in a neat little package and I don't understand your hesitation considering how confident you claim to be.

Sure, six (now four) days is enough to reach a conclusion, but consider that we got deadlined in the first place (after all the griping ABR did on Days 1 and 3). This game WILL stall to deadline unless ham gets in gear.

As for why I haven't voted, I've said it twice now. If I were completely confident, I would have voted. (I could have added "hint, hint" but that would have been obvious.)
The reasons why I haven't voted are
1) I overstated my confidence for purposes of discussion, and
2) I wanted to see reactions to my reads.
To that end, Troll has underwhelmed me. You've not done bad. I really don't know what to do with DDD. hito likes making abstract scenarios, but I'm not picking up a lot of red flags tbh.

The excuse making for DDD's play flabbergasts me. Vi, how much experience do you have with DDD? Would you say he's an adaptive player?

*Appenine Mafia (scum) - lurked, wagon-hopped, everyone wanted to lynch him and nobody ever did
*Mafia of Order (Town power role) - played more or less like a Townier version of his Appenine game IIRC; got lynched for some really terrible reason
*Murder in Zachtown (Town Mason, replaced in D3) - not really effective, but acted as voice of reason
I'm not sure what you mean by "adaptive". I think he's good at what he does, and getting to the point of what you're asking I don't deny that his behavior COULD be planned.

@Vi - is your wiki up to date with all of the games you are currently playing in? I'm assuming it is, but I just wanted to check something.

Yep yep~

---

If someone has a bit of time, I'd really appreciate a quick little reference of the times any of the living players voted for each other. I know that's a lot to ask for but it's also a lot to do and if anyone has a framework or anything in their notes I would be a happy hito.

USE MY VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS YOU SCRUB

VPB -> Vi (36) - Day 1
Vi -> PCE (41)
Vi -> PCE (297)
Vi -> DDD (312)
PCE -> DDD (373)
--Day 2
Troll -> hito (917) - Day 3
VPB -> hito (950)
Vi -> VPB (1077)
DDD -> hito (1093)
--Day 4
DDD -> Troll (1276) - Day 5

Hey hito, realistically speaking there are only two people getting lynched Today. Now that that's out there, do you think you would do better going for individual reads?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I disagree strongly with DDD's argument that the SerialClergyman lynch was inevitable. If it wasn't inevitable, I wouldn't have given up and joined it. Let's look at where everyone stood at the end of D3.

And you're telling me that if Zorblag had hunkered down and dug in his heels you don't think he could've gotten either you or Sando to make the opposite move he did? It's not like we were sitting under deadline where a move had to be made. Other people were willing to stick to their principles, why not Zorblag?

~~~

Am I the only one who feels like VPB's comments in regards to me almost seem more like criticisms of my play as poor rather than an assessment of my play as scummy?

Really? That's how you're interpreting it?

No, it was an absolutely pointless statement intended as a funny joke... in LYLO... with votes on the board. Of course I was serious, I fail to see the causality in your posts or a larger narrative; it mostly seems to consist of whining that I haven't been active enough or that I'm taking credit for being more active than I have.