Vi wrote:
So Bad at Mafia.
Considering IIRC you and Troll are the last ones to go to sleep by time zones, don't delay.
Normally it'd make me bad at mafia, yes, but every rule has exceptions. In this case, being in the unique position of everyone's strongest town read gave me an interesting sort of power. After all, if you're scum, you want to try to mislynch with the person who everyone is calling confirmed town. So, what if that townie doesn't tell you who he wants to lynch? That's when it gets interesting.
Humans are risk adverse, and I think as the day drags on longer and longer scum would be more and more willing to bus their buddy if they didn't think they could get the mislynch. But here's the funny thing.
As said, we're discounting Vi/VP scumteam because if that was the case this game would just be an elaborate practical joke. For reasons I've already given, I highly doubt this is a crossbus. So one of Vi and VP also has to be scum. But since I've been sitting on my opinions, I think a strong dynamic of this day has been whoever the scum out of Vi and VP is gauging the other's interest is a mislynch.
And with that, the final countdown.
The idea of a VP/DDD scumteam is just silly, silly, silly. Too easy to get a Zorblag misylnch. There's also the reasoning I gave earlier that scum probably at least opened this day trying for a straight win - any bussing would, I believe, be a later consequence as the potential targets faded away. VP opened DDD in a situation where it would have been a little too easy to cite uncertainty and test the waters.
Let's look at the two possible Vi teams.
Either she's scum with Zorblag, or scum with DDD. She opened with Zorblag as her most possible, and DDD as her second-to-last preference. But let's think about Vi/Zorblag for a minute. In addition to the little points I found against it:
Vi attacks Reck's post but ignores Zorblag's points, and doesn't seem to want to convert to a lynch. This strikes me as really weird, and while Vi's actions might mesh with Zorblag's D2 as potential scum (one bussing, one stay off of the wagon) it doesn't make too much sense here that she'd want to attack her scumbuddies posts for fun but not mention acting on it. Point against Zorblag/Vi.
Here's something I feel like trying. It goes off of the same principle of differences, but this time applied to one person. With three scum, I feel pretty safe in saying that the scum don't want to put their two buddies in the same category on their list. It's nothing definitive but it's a little psychology back-door I can try.
Reck's Scumlist wrote:
SCUMMEH:
charlatan
PorkchopExpress
DDD
PRETTEH SCUMMEH:
VP Baltar
Sando
NEUTRAL:
Amished
Ojanen
Albert B Rampage
TOWNEE:
Zorblag
Vi
SC
There's a point against Zorblag/Vi. Not the biggest point, but a point.
But beyond that, there's just the nature of it. Vi would have had to open bussing, and counted on VP the townie to 'sway' her to vote for DDD instead of her scumbuddy. I don't like that.
A passive Vi and an active VP makes more sense in the other direction. Vi/DDD. Vi opens putting down DDD as second-strongest town, for fairly safe reasons. But VP doesn't want to lynch Zorblag, he wants to lynch DDD. Vi could hold out for me trying to lynch Zorblag - but I've been silent. With the day wearing on and the arguments against DDD looking stronger and stronger, Vi decided to just soft-bus DDD, while leaving her options open in case I barged in voting Zorblag.
If you can't tell, this is the philosophy I subscribe to. However, there's the open question of VP and Zorblag being a scumteam. VP in that situation would be trying to convince Vi of DDD's guilt for the mislynch, and there's the chance that he is succeeding in this endeavor. There are two major factors that have driven me away from this one. The first is that, simply, I think the arguments on DDD are more convicing. The second is more specious. I simply don't see Vi as the player that would fall for that sort of argument, to go for DDD when the main person arguing for his lynch (even moreso than Zorblag, in my opinion) is also easily the strongest candidate to be his scumbuddy.
So my plan is to first lynch DDD, and then, lynch his scumbuddy, Vi.
But I'd like to let this sit in the thread for a little bit before I vote off of it. VP, you're the townie here, so lemme know what times you'll have working for you tomorrow and we can plan to do this at a reasonable time tomorrow.
VP, one last point: The blind spot I'm leaving here is Vi/Zorblag. I think it's much less likely than Vi/DDD, but it still isn't completely out there. If you could quick give your thoughts on that scumteam, that'd be much appreciated.
"Don’t buy a dozen eggs if you just want a hardboiled egg. Don’t buy a head of lettuce if you just want a salad. Don’t buy eggs and lettuce if you want egg salad because those are not the right ingredients." -Julius Bloop
