Mini 931: Supreme Court Mafia (Game Over post 682)

[Darox]

The way she's been acting struck me more as confirmation biased town to me.

Rereading in ISO she actually looks less town than I remember, but she's still not scummy enough to put her in my scumgroup at this point.

Jack: What do you think of Netopalis?

Dry-Fit: What do you think of FishytheFish?

[Battousai]

Vote Count:

Darox -1- jasonT1981

Not Voting:

Netopalis, pman5595, Dry-fit, Darox, Fishythefish, Jack, camn

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

[Jack]

fos:Darox

camn

has not

been acting like confirmation bias town. She jumped on me and neto very hard and then

abandoned it

. There is nothing that really says confirmation bias.

Why didn't you answer any of the questions about your role name?

Your play to day has not been townie

[Darox]

fos:Darox

camn

has not

been acting like confirmation bias town. She jumped on me and neto very hard and then

abandoned it

. There is nothing that really says confirmation bias.

Why didn't you answer any of the questions about your role name?

Your play to day has not been townie

I did, in #524. And I explained why in #527.

My role name is officer. That's it. Vanilla Officer.

As for camn, that was the feeling I got from her latest play.

When rereading I was reminded of her day 1 play which is what made me suspect her more.

[camn]

I sadly agree with Jack.

I was totally convinced that Neto and Jack were scum, but their reactions changed my mind. (which you have mentioned a couple times, jack.. but never why it is scummy? That is how I shake out scum early on. Naked aggression.)
Wouldn't I have to STILL insist they were scum to have that particular bias? (which I had to google, btw)

And re: lurkers...
with the exception of my last game... it seems to me that EVERY GAME I PLAY the scum lurk their way to victory.
everyone lets them off the hook, then WOW, they were scum after all.
In an ongoing game, which I am dead in, BOTH lurkers have already flipped scum.

I could easily go for a Jason or Darox lynch, though, if you feel like compromising. We

will

eventually need to lynch them all.

[Netopalis]

I have to echo the sentiments - I'm really not liking Darox's play today. I didn't like it much either of the other two days, but today it's pretty obvious (to me, anyway) that he's being intentionally obstructionist. Not voting due to the possibility that he is actually town and was researched, since I think we need to build a consensus before we move, but I'd definitely vote for him if there was no researcher in this game.

[Dry-fit]

Dry-Fit: What do you think of FishytheFish?

I've pretty much agreed with his suspicions and what he has been saying the entire game. He is one of my strongest town reads. Why do you ask?

[Darox]

I have to echo the sentiments - I'm really not liking Darox's play today. I didn't like it much either of the other two days, but today it's pretty obvious (to me, anyway) that he's being intentionally obstructionist. Not voting due to the possibility that he is actually town and was researched, since I think we need to build a consensus before we move, but I'd definitely vote for him if there was no researcher in this game.

This is the same thing you called Jack scum for before Yosarian and I called you out on it for being total baloney.

Kindly tell me what I am obstructing.

I sadly agree with Jack.

Why sadly?

I was totally convinced that Neto and Jack were scum, but their reactions changed my mind. (which you have mentioned a couple times, jack.. but never why it is scummy? That is how I shake out scum early on. Naked aggression.)
Wouldn't I have to STILL insist they were scum to have that particular bias? (which I had to google, btw)

No, you wouldn't, because I am not and never was refering to your accusations against Jack & Netopalis as confirmation bias. I was refering to your Dry-Fit/Jason/Darox scumteam pet theory.

And re: lurkers...
with the exception of my last game... it seems to me that EVERY GAME I PLAY the scum lurk their way to victory.
everyone lets them off the hook, then WOW, they were scum after all.
In an ongoing game, which I am dead in, BOTH lurkers have already flipped scum.

Who's lurking in this game Camn? Please check for me, rather than telling me off the top of your head.

[Darox]

Dry-Fit: What do you think of FishytheFish?

I've pretty much agreed with his suspicions and what he has been saying the entire game. He is one of my strongest town reads. Why do you ask?

Because you are largely an unknown and getting some opinions on the state of the game from you is a good thing.

[Jack]

Darox, camn scumlist before the wagon analysis was dry-fit/jason/???. The people to choose from for the 4th sport were: jack, neto, fishy, pman, you. Do you think the wagon analysis doesn't support her position? Why would you think it was confirmation bias?

**********

ISO 4 has Darox putting out a detailed analysis, not seen since. His day 2 swap from camn (who he'd supported lynching that day, and who he'd voiced suspicion) was changed for DLA. That is scummy.

[camn]

Who's lurking in this game Camn? Please check for me, rather than telling me off the top of your head.

Check yourself, I'm not your monkey.

[camn]

Because you are largely an unknown and getting some opinions on the state of the game from you is a good thing.

And seriously? You say this re: jack.. but Dry-fit has 15 posts and NO opinions.. and you let that slide?

Going the whole game without giving much of an read on anyone (except me ) is pretty scummy, don't you think? - even without the wagon analysis.
But I can see how you totally let that slide, since Dry-fit is your partner, and mislynching Jack would win the game for you.

Darox

: How do you justify your double standard?
Why are you attacking Jack, calling him "largely an unknown".. and defending Dry-fit, who is REALLY an unknown?

[Darox]

I think she is seeing connections in the wagon analysis that support her position that are weak at best and non existant at worst. That is why I think it is the result of confirmation bias.

***

No, it's not. Changing my vote from one suspect to another is not scummy, so if you think there is something scummy in it, you're going to have to explain why.

As for detailed analysis, I don't like to do those often because I'm a lazy bastard, only when I feel they are needed. I was in fact planning to do one once Netopalis provided his promised case, as that case may change/cement my opinions.

[Darox]

Who's lurking in this game Camn? Please check for me, rather than telling me off the top of your head.

Check yourself, I'm not your monkey.

I asked you to check because I want you to see the results for yourself. I already know how much everyone has posted.

Because you are largely an unknown and getting some opinions on the state of the game from you is a good thing.

And seriously? You say this re: jack.. but Dry-fit has 15 posts and NO opinions.. and you let that slide?

No, I said that re: Dry-Fit, as seen when I quoted him in the very post you quoted. But nice confirmation bias.

Going the whole game without giving much of an read on anyone (except me ) is pretty scummy, don't you think? - even without the wagon analysis.
But I can see how you totally let that slide, since Dry-fit is your partner, and mislynching Jack would win the game for you.

I've been one of the biggest defenders of Jack for the entire game, and you're trying to suggest I'm out to mislynch him?

Darox

: How do you justify your double standard?
Why are you attacking Jack, calling him "largely an unknown".. and defending Dry-fit, who is REALLY an unknown?

I don't know, why don't you tell me?

[Darox]

Other things I wanted to mention but got caught up in replies.

#1
Rereading Camns wagon analysis, I noticed she assumed the scum was playing smart by managing to pick up on Yosarians breadcrumbs.

I do not buy into this theory and instead have a much simpler explaination. The scum was picking the most experienced player (By join date) in the absense of any other evidence. Hence my list on page #18, which lists all alive players by join date.

#2
I thought you were going to deliver a case with evidence Netopalis? Suddenly once I start getting a little pressure you forget about making good on your promise and join in on the action with a rousing 'yeah, what they said'.

[camn]

Because you are largely an unknown and getting some opinions on the state of the game from you is a good thing.

And seriously? You say this re: jack.. but Dry-fit has 15 posts and NO opinions.. and you let that slide?

No, I said that re: Dry-Fit, as seen when I quoted him in the very post you quoted. But nice confirmation bias.

Ah, this is totally my bad.
I thought that post was directed toward Jack, for god knows what reason.
And obv, I thought it was a funny turn of events.

[Fishythefish]

A quick IIoA note: if there were fewer than three scum, assigning the PRs randomly wouldn't make much sense, as they couldn't all go to scum (did the mod even guarantee they definitely

could

all go to scum?). So three scum is even more likely than it would normally be.

[Darox]

Why would you assume that all three roles were distributed randomly?

I find this unlikely, and suspect the mod had determined ahead of time which roles would be scum/town, and included the disclaimer to prevent the town from knowing whether the researcher/veto holder were scum or town, or from assuming that one is scum and the other town.


Netopalis: What do you think of Jack as Cop-Confirmed town?

[Fishythefish]

I'll go back and read the relevant blurb again later (all out of time now), but my impression is that they were randomly assigned.

[Netopalis]

Darox: It's possible, and it's better than any other lead we've got right now.

Fishy: See Rule 17.

[Jack]

Fishy is basically lurking.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy is basically lurking.

Yep. I've been low on activity. Activity has been coming in lots of shortish periods, which is fine for games I'm up to date with, but this one needed some thinking about. In my defense, I've also been acknowledging said lurking. Anyway, that's over now:

- jason is still scum. He defends against Yos's accusation of pairing Darox with Jack to discredit Darox's defense of Jack by saying "but I'd been calling them both scum all day". The point isn't that you thought they were scum - the point is that you attacked Darox's arguments unfairly, by calling him Jack's buddy, because you were unwilling or unable to address the arguments themselves. Dismissing points against your cases with "yeah, but you're scum" is a terrible and scummy thing to do, and betrays the fact that you don't actually care to think too hard about the validity of your case.
jason's link for Darox and Jack is that they have defended each other. Well, Darox has defended Jack, along with Yos and I, against the terrible arguments levelled against him. But the other way round looks totally artificial. jason provides two quotes. One of them is Jack asking "Really?" when jason calls Darox

and Jack himself

scum. So jason has apparently looked at this, and made the conclusion that the suspicion Jack was questioning was the one on Darox, not the one on him. I refuse to believe this is in good faith. jason's second "defense" is a little bit better. It's Jack pointing out a reading fail of jason. I don't think this can be classed as a "defense" of Darox - more like an attack on jason for making a point with his facts wrong. All in all, it's a weak and contrived link.

Other things:
- Admitting veto holder makes pman fairly likely town.
- Researcher is scum. We should be very, very careful about voting.
- camn's analysis:
I'm thinking that I agree with him on Jack and GC as Yos's investigations. Making Yos naive or sane.
I'm not a great one for wagon analysis generally, but I think his reasoning on D-F is fairly strong. Having all 3 scum on a wagon of 5 yesterday would be distinctly odd.

Things to do: read Darox. This will happen in the next few hours.

[Darox]

Maybe now Netopalis can respond to #564

Also camn, if you're so gung-ho against lurkers, surely you would want to know who is lurking, especially when the person you call obv town is doing so.

[Netopalis]

Ah, yeah, forgot about it. I'll get to it now.

[Darox]

Pman: What do you think of camn?