926 A Game of Thrones Mafia - Over.

[Faraday]

You can.

[TheButtonmen]

Here sorry, been busy with run up to exams and hadn't seen the day start. To start of with;

@Confucius:

Who did you target last night?

[Seacore]

No Button

To start with, what results did you get, and who did you target last night?

[Confucius]

I don't see how answering that question hurts us.

I targeted The Inquisition last night.

[Seacore]

I know it doesn't hurt us, but it annoys me that our 'cop' didn't declare his results with his first post, despite the fact he knew he'd posted late.

Very scummy.

Town who have information to contribute, whether they are busy or not, will tend to give it, even if they can't stay around to contribute.

Scum who are busy may forget that they are supposed to have that information to share.

[Kinetic]

I'd like to see Button answer some questions as well. Although I did think Raiv was more likely to be scum yesterday, at this point Button has gone two days and is at this point just pretending like no one is asking him any questions.

[Locke Lamora]

I agree with Confucius about Raivann's wagon (although it implicates myself). I think it's very likely that at least one of Kinetic and Seacore is scum if Button is. Leaning towards Kinetic at this stage as I think he's been less pro-town than Seacore, with the set-up speculation taking up a lot of his posts and not much actual suspicion outside of that coming through. I also think Seacore's taken more stances and looked a lot more eager to lynch Button throughout this game. I also don't think that Confucius, Mac and Button are all town and I'm reading Button as the scummiest of the three.

[TheButtonmen]

Button has gone two days and is at this point just pretending like no one is asking him any questions.

I was gone from MS and hadn't seen it dawn.

@Confucius:

Why Inq?

Vote: Seacore.

[Faraday]

3.1 Votecount: The

'"So they will not love ... for love is the bane of honor, the death of duty.

"

votecount

TheButtonMen (1) [Confucius]
Seacore (1) [TheButtonMen]
Not voting:(5) [Locke Lamora, Kinetic, Mina, MacavityLock, Seacore ]

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 3 is 11th of April at 6pm GMT

[Kinetic]

Ok, I'm getting high scum vibes from Button.

If this is LyLo (and there is a strong chances this is), voting is NOT something you do willy nilly.

Right now, when Conq voted Button I put it in my head that the fact there wasn't a quick vote behind him means either Button or Conq is likely scum. (If there are three scum remaining either Button is a scum and the other scum are staying away from his wagon or Conq is scum and he needs a townie to jump on before his buddies hammer.)

With Button's vote it becomes more convoluted because now there is a high likelihood of either Button or Seacore being scum (since if they were both town the same thing might happen/ i.e. three scum jump on and potentially end the game.)

The fact that Button is the common thread in both of these and he STILL hasn't answered any questions or provided his results, yet continues to fish from Conq is major suspicious to me.

MFOS:Button

Unless you are SURE who you are voting is scum (or you are scum trying to start a quick lynch) you should not be voting right now!

[Seacore]

Can we just lynch him already?

He's refused to answer the questions, he hasn't claimed his results. And we know he's read the question because it was directly above Con's claim.

[Seacore]

In fact, fuck it.

If Button is town, he's lost this game for us

vote: Button

[Confucius]

@Confucius:

Why Inq?

That would require me to full-claim, which I am not willing to do at the request of scum.

The only reason I agreed to claim my target was (i) in case somebody could verify it at some point of the game, or (i) in case I die overnight and the information turns out to be important for some reason.

[Seacore]

Also, prior warning, I'll have limited access over the easter period (which for me in Australia, starts some time tomorrow).

I'll probably still be around, but I'll pretty much only accept a Buttonmen lynch at this point anyway.

If he had a guilty find, and he was town, it would be the first thing he would tell us.
That didn't happen, which means there's no better lynch for today.

Locke or Kinetic should get Vigged tonight if a vigging happens.

[Locke Lamora]

I'm happy to vote Button. I don't think there are any reasons not to, at this stage. He seems like the most likely common denominator of a scumteam and his approach to today appears to be designed to stall as much as possible. I'll wait for Mac and Mina to voice their thoughts but I think it's pretty clear that Con, Seacore, Kinetic and myself are inclined towards a Button lynch and a non-Button team is looking increasingly unlikely right now.

[MacavityLock]

I can't disagree with anything being said thus far. Buttonmen is incredibly scummy for not providing his results right away and questioning Confucius the way he is. I also want to know why he's voting Seacore.

[Seacore]

I believe it's a left over OMGUS from when I was trying to lynch him on Day 1.

From another point of view, it might also be seen as WIFOM. But that point of view has me as scum, which I'm not.

[MacavityLock]

Why did you just make that post, Seacore?

[Seacore]

Because I'm bored at work, nobody is posting, and I'm flippant about Button's answers? This game has stagnated because we're waiting for somebody we're pretty sure is scum to answer questions, so that we can be sure he's scum.

[Mina]

Seacore, you really think that vote was OMGUS for your trying to lynch him? Are you kidding me? Because you were the only one trying to lynch him on Day One?

Are you nervous that Buttonmen's vote was his result? You were his claimed N1 investigation, after all.

I was feeling slightly better about Button on Day Two for his case on MacavityLock and Locke, but that's kind of nullified now that we know MacavityLock is at worst an SK. It would be nice to finally get rid of him, considering, you know, I've only wanted to lynch him THE WHOLE GAME. And I agree that a real cop would claim his results with his first post. It occurred to me that his Seacore vote was either a gambit to test reactions or his investigation result, but he's clearly not interested in following up on it.

Mac, I hope you're the kind of serial killer whose kills can't be roleblocked.

-------

So anyway, I looked at potential scumteams. Considering that Seacore has left Button on L-2 all day and there's been no speedlynch, I think it's pretty obvious that one of Buttonmen and Seacore is scum--leaning toward Button. I'm debating if we should assume that one of Con and Button is lying about their role. If this is an SK game, there may be two investigation roles. Since Con proved his N1 result, the liar is most likely Button.

But I'll assume the lack of speedlynch means BOTH Con and Seacore are scum if Button is town...since if that's not the case, we've lost the game anyway by this point.

I was tempted to rule out a Buttonmen/Seacore partnership, but then I realized that Button was likely to be lynched, and Seacore was implicated by the Raivann counterwagon. They might have planned overnight for Seacore to throw Button under a bus. That would explain why Seacore wasn't afraid to jump on the wagon, and is pushing us to make this fast so we get as little information as possible. Button's Seacore vote today is also the kind of clumsy move partners do to create last-minute distance. It already occurred to me on D1 that Seacore's last-minute flip on Button might have been him cutting ties.

Going back to my big list and eliminating all the partnerships that don't feature either Button or Seacore-Confucius:

Locke/Kinetic/Button

Locke/Kinetic/Seacore

Locke/Kinetic/Confucius

Locke/Button/Seacore
Locke/Seacore/Confucius
Kinetic/Button/Seacore
Kinetic/Seacore/Confucius

Five potential scumteams, from my POV.

Let me know if I've made any mistakes. Anyway, these are my tentative conclusions:

If we lynch Button and he flips scum, vig Locke, Kinetic, or Seacore.
If we lynch Button and he flips town, vig Seacore or Confucius.

Disclaimer: don't take this as 100% rock-solid evidence, since it's possible that there are only two scum or that the scum haven't been able to coordinate a speedlynch.

[Mina]

Seacore, you really think that vote was OMGUS for your trying to lynch him? Are you kidding me? Because you were the only one trying to lynch him on Day One?

Are you nervous that Buttonmen's vote was his result? You were his claimed N1 investigation, after all.

I was feeling slightly better about Button on Day Two for his case on MacavityLock and Locke, but that's kind of nullified now that we know MacavityLock is at worst an SK. It would be nice to finally get rid of him, considering, you know, I've only wanted to lynch him THE WHOLE GAME. And I agree that a real cop would claim his results with his first post. It occurred to me that his Seacore vote was either a gambit to test reactions or his investigation result, but he's clearly not interested in following up on it.

Mac, I hope you're the kind of serial killer whose kills can't be roleblocked.

-------

So anyway, I looked at potential scumteams. Considering that Seacore has left Button on L-2 all day and there's been no speedlynch, I think it's pretty obvious that one of Buttonmen and Seacore is scum--leaning toward Button. I'm debating if we should assume that one of Con and Button is lying about their role. If this is an SK game, there may be two investigation roles. Since Con proved his N1 result, the liar is most likely Button.

But I'll assume the lack of speedlynch means BOTH Con and Seacore are scum if Button is town...since if that's not the case, we've lost the game anyway by this point.

I was tempted to rule out a Buttonmen/Seacore partnership, but then I realized that Button was likely to be lynched, and Seacore was implicated by the Raivann counterwagon. They might have planned overnight for Seacore to throw Button under a bus. That would explain why Seacore wasn't afraid to jump on the wagon, and is pushing us to make this fast so we get as little information as possible. Button's Seacore vote today is also the kind of clumsy move partners do to create last-minute distance. It already occurred to me on D1 that Seacore's last-minute flip on Button might have been him cutting ties.

Going back to my big list and eliminating all the partnerships that don't feature either Button or Seacore-Confucius:

Locke/Kinetic/Button

Locke/Kinetic/Seacore

Locke/Kinetic/Confucius

Locke/Button/Seacore
Locke/Seacore/Confucius
Kinetic/Button/Seacore
Kinetic/Seacore/Confucius

Five potential scumteams, from my POV.

Let me know if I've made any mistakes. Anyway, these are my tentative conclusions:

If we lynch Button and he flips scum, vig Locke, Kinetic, or Seacore.
If we lynch Button and he flips town, vig Seacore or Confucius.

Disclaimer: don't take this as 100% rock-solid evidence, since it's possible that there are only two scum or that the scum haven't been able to coordinate a speedlynch.

[Mina]

Sorry for the double-post. EBWOP: I just realized that Con could have the role he said, but be a scum tracker.

Do you guys think I should just vote Button? He clearly isn't interested in answering our questions. And no one's tried to speedlynch him even though he's been sitting at L-2 all day. Maybe putting him at L-1 would bring him back to the thread. This day has been a fiasco. I'm just paranoid about voting so early in a potential LYLO situation.

My main doubt is that I'm starting to think Seacore would be the better information lynch, particularly after his posts today. He appears in all possible pairings except for Locke/Kinetic/Button. If he flips town, then we'd have the entire scumteam lined up.

The problem (other than the fact that this analysis is useless if there are only two scum on the team that killed xvart and Percy) is the roleblocker. Button claimed no result on D1, and Confucius claimed no result on D2. Since one of them must be town, the Mafia must have a roleblocker. So Mac's vig kill wouldn't go through.

So I'd rather go for the player who's most likely to be scum.

[Kinetic]

At this point Button has provided no excuse for why he is not here, and continues to just ignore all requests for anything.

I'm pretty much ready to vote for him.

[Locke Lamora]

Enough stalling.

Vote: Buttonmen

Everyone's clearly ready to do it anyway.

[Kinetic]

I agree.

Vote:Button