Newbie 922: Day 3

[Ellibereth]

@Elli: Out of curiosity, how are you calculating all of this? Ctrl+F & Windows Calculator?

Nacho, how does Cojin's flip reconcile with this judgment of yours Yesterday?:

I was wrong... Was there anything else you were expecting to hear there?

I'm on an Ubuntu, and for the most part I used the source code with some exceptions. Possible error include mod vote counts (which is why I like them posted seperately...along with ease of iso and wagon analasys), anyway, the percent error would be negilible the general picture of the numbers is what is important.

Votecount
Nachomamma8 - 1 (havingfitz)

Not Voting - 6 (Acosmist, RayFrost, Elementary Fermion, Nachomamma8, Panacea, Ellibereth)

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

[Elementary Fermion]

I'm in no mood to type out my methodology in detail but trust that it was sufficiently controlled so that the error wouldn't be too large. If you want to cross-check my work for error please do, I would appreciate it.

I am sure you do so trust. I, however, am in no mood to double check your numbers as a substitute for your explination of your methodology. That's not how the world works.

[Ellibereth]

I'm in no mood to type out my methodology in detail but trust that it was sufficiently controlled so that the error wouldn't be too large. If you want to cross-check my work for error please do, I would appreciate it.

I am sure you do so trust. I, however, am in no mood to double check your numbers as a substitute for your explination of your methodology. That's not how the world works.

Then you don't have to trust it. That's your problem. It's looking like it's going to incriminate you anyway so I'm not surprised you're trying to look for faults.
---------------------------
I also missed an important VC. Town read will be switchng from yellow to Olive for readability.

Votecount

Lawls

- 4 (Elementary Fermion,

Cojin

,

Acosmist

,

havingfitz

)

Acosmist

- 1 (

Lawls

)
Cojin - 1 (RayFrost)

Not Voting - 2 (

Panacea

, Nachomamma8)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch

Vote: Fermion

[Elementary Fermion]

It's looking like it's going to incriminate you anyway so I'm not surprised you're trying to look for faults.

That's how we treat research in the real world. April fools.

We will all look back on your statement and laugh, by the way.

[Ellibereth]

Mind Meld into: Elementary Fermion

We will all look back on your statement and laugh, by the way.

Processing...

Oh crap, Ellibereth nailed both me and my scumbuddy. I must do everything I can do to discredit him

[Acosmist]

Correlation between these numbers and alignment, go.

Scum are very likely 2 out of {Nacho, Fermion, Ray}.
The interaction raises the chance of {Fermion, Ray} due to the lowness of it, especially since I recall Ray had specifically done the low-contact thing in a game which he played with Yos2 as scum (too lazy to look for it now).
I'll be moving away from concrete information to look into their direct player interactions shortly.

Well, Numbers, what's the strength of correlation between mentioning each other rarely and scummitude? 1? .5? Whip out Excel and tell me, since that seems to be your thing.

[Elementary Fermion]

Wow the New Guy™ is so amazingly good. All those numbers scare me but he makes them look so normal and incriminating. Wow. . .

[Ellibereth]

Correlation between these numbers and alignment, go.

Scum are very likely 2 out of {Nacho, Fermion, Ray}.
The interaction raises the chance of {Fermion, Ray} due to the lowness of it, especially since I recall Ray had specifically done the low-contact thing in a game which he played with Yos2 as scum (too lazy to look for it now).
I'll be moving away from concrete information to look into their direct player interactions shortly.

Well, Numbers, what's the strength of correlation between mentioning each other rarely and scummitude? 1? .5? Whip out Excel and tell me, since that seems to be your thing.

Pretty Damn High.
Anyway, Wagon Analysis has netted Fermion. Wagon gogogo.

[Elementary Fermion]

Also, RayFrost, please post.

I trust that this post, in which I mention someone with literally no justification, will be taken into account in your super secret scum identifying number method which you cannot share with us for fear of losing your protected trade secret status.

[Elementary Fermion]

Anyway, Wagon Analysis has netted Fermion. Wagon gogogo.

None of the rest of you mere mortals can argue with this!

Vote: Elementary Fermion

Get me the heck out of this game, and expose the New Guy™ as a scummy railroading blowhard all at once. w00t

Also, I have a feeling you don't know what correlation means. But it must be super high! Like infinity squared high! So high I can't even see it!

By the way, making vague, baseless claims based on "numbers" is dumb.

[Acosmist]

Correlation between these numbers and alignment, go.

Scum are very likely 2 out of {Nacho, Fermion, Ray}.
The interaction raises the chance of {Fermion, Ray} due to the lowness of it, especially since I recall Ray had specifically done the low-contact thing in a game which he played with Yos2 as scum (too lazy to look for it now).
I'll be moving away from concrete information to look into their direct player interactions shortly.

Well, Numbers, what's the strength of correlation between mentioning each other rarely and scummitude? 1? .5? Whip out Excel and tell me, since that seems to be your thing.

Pretty Damn High.
Anyway, Wagon Analysis has netted Fermion. Wagon gogogo.

"Pretty damn high" it not the same as, say, ".4192".

It's also not an objective fact. I thought that's what we were doing here, talkin' 'bout objective facts. Is it possible you weren't? If you are throwing numbers around without regard for their meaning, this is the worst possible set of players to have replaced into.

[Ellibereth]

Correlation between these numbers and alignment, go.

Scum are very likely 2 out of {Nacho, Fermion, Ray}.
The interaction raises the chance of {Fermion, Ray} due to the lowness of it, especially since I recall Ray had specifically done the low-contact thing in a game which he played with Yos2 as scum (too lazy to look for it now).
I'll be moving away from concrete information to look into their direct player interactions shortly.

Well, Numbers, what's the strength of correlation between mentioning each other rarely and scummitude? 1? .5? Whip out Excel and tell me, since that seems to be your thing.

Pretty Damn High.
Anyway, Wagon Analysis has netted Fermion. Wagon gogogo.

"Pretty damn high" it not the same as, say, ".4192".

It's also not an objective fact. I thought that's what we were doing here, talkin' 'bout objective facts. Is it possible you weren't? If you are throwing numbers around without regard for their meaning, this is the worst possible set of players to have replaced into.

Hm? The numbers I posted are all facts. The Votecounts I posted are facts. That's the purest level of the information that can't be argued.

Then we enter the realm of things that

may

be argued but statistical analysis can be used to support them. The things here may also have exceptions, so most of them are "in general". For example:
There is almost always scum on a town wagon.
In general, town post more than scum.
In general, and especially amongst newer players, scum partners interact with each other less.

And now using those, we go back and evaluate the numbers and votecounts I gathered.

Not everything can be assigned a number, certain things can. Most of the things I data mined were simple counting. Of course once I move into their evaluation I have to leave concreteness.

I will not be discussing theory further in this topic, people leave that for MD.

[Elementary Fermion]

"Pretty damn high" it not the same as, say, ".4192".

It's also not an objective fact. I thought that's what we were doing here, talkin' 'bout objective facts. Is it possible you weren't? If you are throwing numbers around without regard for their meaning, this is the worst possible set of players to have replaced into.

Acosmist, come on, do not attempt to discuss the realm of magic numbers with the Number Diety here. You are obviously too stupid to follow his reasoning (which can be summarized as follows: numbers therefore EF is guilty RayFrost).

Vote for me, expose him as a tool, lynch him, win. Gogogo

[Ellibereth]

Reposting the Very Important Votecount

Votecount

Lawls

- 4 (Elementary Fermion,

Cojin

,

Acosmist

,

havingfitz

)

Acosmist

- 1 (

Lawls

)

Cojin

- 1 (RayFrost)

Not Voting - 2 (

Panacea

, Nachomamma8)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch

[Nachomamma8]

EF, stop being so sensitive. You're self-destructing... again...

[Elementary Fermion]

I am not self destructing. I am repsonding (RayFrost) to absurdity by being absurd. This clown does not have a clue about rigorous deduction or statistics, and I find his abuse of such fields offensive.

Nacho, are you town? If so, vote for me. Do it. Then you will have your proof to vote this doofus off the island. I am willing to be a martyr to show this clown for the fool he is.

I guess YET ANOTHER random person replacing into this game and going nuts with outrageous theories just rubs me the wrong way--especially when he does so by butchering my education and career.

[Ellibereth]

Fermon meta:
http://www.vanillatownies.com/viewtopic.php?f=114&t=60
http://www.vanillatownies.com/viewtopic.php?f=114&t=125
http://www.vanillatownies.com/viewtopic.php?f=114&t=103
http://www.vanillatownies.com/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=139
http://www.vanillatownies.com/viewtopic ... &start=480

going through now

[Acosmist]

Hm? The numbers I posted are all facts. The Votecounts I posted are facts. That's the purest level of the information that can't be argued.

Then when I asked for a number to model the correlation, you didn't give me a number! You used a vague adjective phrase.

Then we enter the realm of things that

may

be argued but statistical analysis can be used to support them.

No, we have not yet entered that realm.

The things here may also have exceptions, so most of them are "in general". For example:
There is almost always scum on a town wagon.
In general, town post more than scum.
In general, and especially amongst newer players, scum partners interact with each other less.

How important are the exceptions? How often do these things hold? I'm asking for nothing more than an analysis of the data, something with which you were forthcoming just recently. We don't need to start judging things in this game yet; we can get an exact number that expresses the correlation between those behaviors and alignment, and

then

we can start adjusting for the differences between this game and all the games comprising the set that established the general rules.

You have too much data here and too little. Too much because these counts don't tell me anything about who's scummy. They tell me how many times a certain string of characters appeared in a certain subset of posts in this thread.

Too little because, after attempting to ground yourself with hard data, you didn't take the extra step of doing some simple statistical manipulation of those data to show possible correlations. If the numbers mean anything, then you need to follow the norms of statistical analysis and express the data in a manner that will make inferences from those data easy to make.

You're doing a whole lot of nothing. The rest of us are gonna try to find scum now.

[Nachomamma8]

Then you will have your proof to vote this doofus off the island. I am willing to be a martyr to show this clown for the fool he is.

However, wouldn't proof be easier garnered by attacking Elli himself?

Checking meta now. It's delicious and helpful!

[Ellibereth]

Massive reaction test = win.
Protip: It's easier to read people when you get them riled up.

Unvote

Fermion = town.

[Ellibereth]

Panacea town read temp retracted for a reason.
Redoing vote counts with Fermion/Acos as town.

[Ellibereth]

I have to call it a day soon so let me just get a quick thing.
I took a guess at the general "type" of person Fermion is based on his name/posting style, and I figured a sudden attack, especially in the manner I pulled with just giving numbers and not analyzing them (and explaining the numbers will also have to wait for tomorrow unfortunately...) would elicit a hard enough reaction to let me easily read.
He's town.
---------
Now, the following VC's are going to be super super important

Votecount
Panacea - 3 (

BridgesAndBaloons

,

Lawls

, Edprata)

Lawls

- 1 (

Elementary Fermion

)
havingfitz - 1 (

Acosmist

)
Independent John - 1 (Panacea)

Elementary Fermion

- 1 (Independent John)

Cojin

- 1 (havingfitz)

Not Voting - 1 (

Cojin

)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
-----------------------------
Votecount

Cojin

- 4 (RayFrost, havingfitz,

Lawls

, Nachomamma8)

Lawls

- 2 (

Cojin

,

Acosmist

Panacea - 1 (

Elementary Fermion)

Nachomamma8 - 1 (

BridgesAndBaloons

)

Not Voting - 1 (Panacea)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
-----------------------------
Votecount

Cojin

- 3 (RayFrost, havingfitz,

Lawls

)

Lawls

- 5 (

Cojin

,

Acosmist

,

Elementary Fermion

, Nachomamma8, Panacea)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (

BridgesAndBaloons

)

Not Voting - 1 ()

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
-------------------------
Votecount

Lawls

- 4 (

Elementary Fermion

,

Cojin

,

Acosmist

, havingfitz)

Acosmist

- 1 (

Lawls

)

Cojin

- 1 (RayFrost)

Not Voting - 2 (Panacea, Nachomamma8)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
---------------------------

Based solely off these, Nacho would be the best and the most informative lynch. It's late now though, and I'll explain all the stuff (and it won't be too stir shit up so I can get a read...promise!) tomorrow.

[Panacea]

Hell yes, guys! This is the most activity I've ever seen!! (This is probably the point you all turn and glare at me for not being a bigger part of it.) Religious holidays are kind of a big deal in the house of Pan. Finding time that isn't two am to read has become a chore. I'll have time to produce a thorough post while everyone's at work/school in the morning (nine or so hours?), and I promise über-content for your patience.

[havingfitz]

Posts 451-462 were very enjoyable...a few even got a chuckle out of me. Thanks to those involved.

@EF...other than leaving the game...what did you hope to gain by a self vote? You're either being a pathetic quitter or you are doing it for a calculated reason (assuming you take the vote off yourself or don't replace out which would then give credence to the latter). At least it got your name in olive so you have that going for you. For some reason I have lost my recently obtained town color

@Elli...I agree with your generalizations and I like stats and numbers....but if everything always happened a certain way this game would be too predictable and always able to be figured out. Everyplayer is different. Extended absences or differences in players opportunities to make posts skew the numbers. It's a valiant effort but I don't think it's foolproof. I would be reluctant to vote one person over the other in a LYLO situation just based on the odds.

So who are everyone's suspects again? No one in the mood to vote...at least for other people? Mine are Nacho...a tie between Pan and Elli...EF and Ray close to each other and then Acos least scummy (at least in mafia).

What the hell Ray...if you are town you aren't doing us any favors.

And Pan...which is it...midterms or religious holidays. FFS....post a little. A little more that is.

[Ellibereth]

SORRY FITZY< I FORGOT THE OLIVE.

And do you agree with the following (or not):
A) particularly low level of interaction between one known scum player, and one unknown alignment player raises the chance of said scum-pair.
B) Many time, scum post less than town.

I'm not saying I can figure everything out ultra-speed, looking at facts, but noone bothers to gather them and if they do say something we would never know. For times where it's work, go to Adel's wiki page (it was editted though, so go through his edit history and go to the one with his complete games), in several of them, especially the middle, he's absolutely devastating using info like this to catch scum.
---------------------------
I'm dropping the numbers subject for now, but just keep it in the back of the head or remember this later or something. I'll go check individual vote patterns, then I finally have to buckle down and read the words.