Newbie 922: Day 3

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #475 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:24 am

Post by Ellibereth »

EBWOP: Oh sorry, I didn't see that you said you agree with the generalizations. :oops:
I'll just say my point again, I know they don't always apply, but keeping them there with the data can't be bad.

Votecount
Elementary Fermion - 1 (Elementary Fremion)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (havingfitz)

Not Voting - 5 (Acosmist, RayFrost, Nachomamma8, Panacea, Ellibereth)

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
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Post Post #476 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 4:17 am

Post by Elementary Fermion »

havingfitz wrote:@EF...other than leaving the game...what did you hope to gain by a self vote?
Elementary Fermion wrote:I am repsonding (RayFrost) to absurdity by being absurd.
havingfitz wrote:You're either being a pathetic quitter or you are doing it for a calculated reason (assuming you take the vote off yourself or don't replace out which would then give credence to the latter).
Elementary Fermion wrote:I am willing to be a martyr to show this clown for the fool he is.
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Post Post #477 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 6:03 am

Post by Ellibereth »

D1 Vote Patterns as promised.
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Post Post #478 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 6:06 am

Post by Ellibereth »

EBWOP: Shoot, I screwed up Cojin's color in Nacho's column 306 and 321.
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Post Post #479 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 6:12 am

Post by Ellibereth »

At a glance Pana needs to explain why she wasn't voting for anyone for most of the day.
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Post Post #480 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:25 am

Post by Panacea »

Ellibereth wrote: Furthermore, with the hypothesis that scum are likely to post less than town, the review of the postotals and my vote analasys have a big huge venn diagram overlap.
Yeah, but this is dependent on player personality. It's apparent that I post a lot. As town or as scum, I post a lot. I just don't think it's at all in town interest to operate under that assumption, because I know from experience that while it's a trend, it's not a rule.

While I appreciate when players put a lot of effort into their analysis, I... like analysis. These constant votecounts and player mentions are nice to have on the record, but it's leaning a little IIoA for me. (Oh, Fitz agrees!)
Ellibereth wrote: I'll be moving away from concrete information to look into their direct player interactions shortly.
This helped the bad vibe, though. Somewhat.
Nacho wrote:
Panacea wrote: Nacho, how does Cojin's flip reconcile with this judgment of yours Yesterday?
I was wrong... Was there anything else you were expecting to hear there?
Not much more than that, it's true. But could you, for the record, tell us exactly what you observed in the other game as opposed to this one? I have an interest in hearing it, if you've got a sec.

Elli, as a side note,#454, I lol'd. :)
Elementary wrote: Nacho, are you town? If so, vote for me. Do it. Then you will have your proof to vote this doofus off the island.
I am willing to be a martyr to show this clown for the fool he is
.
Elementary, that's not Townie. Come on. If you want to expose him,
help us expose him
. Y'know, the old fashioned way. :P

I'm not sure I like the way Elli pushed Elementary over the edge, then backed off when Elementary had an obv town reaction. It's just too darn easy to say that had been his plan all along as he did.
havingfitz wrote: And Pan...which is it...midterms or religious holidays.
After taking this statement into thorough consideration, I've decided to PM God. His selection of the time he chose to resurrect his Son is really interfering with my play. Next comes the higher education system. In the middle of term is a silly time to have midterms. :roll:
Ellibereth wrote: At a glance Pana needs to explain why she wasn't voting for anyone for most of the day.
At another Ellibereth needs to answer whether or not he actually read all of D1.
Everyone
was scummy. You're so fond of meta. I don't typically vote unless I'm pretty compelled. On the Lawls hammer, my vote didn't matter anyway. As top voted, he would've died in a few hours with or without my help. I just hoped to end the game earlier than three am, so we'd start it back up earlier, too. Most posting seems to occur while I'm sleeping.

I said it yesterday and I'll say it again. Elementary's town in my eyes. He's the player I'm most certain of.

Ray is bothering me. I think he's genuinely busy, but we're to the stage where I can't say what he's given leans town, because he hasn't given too much. Ray, where are you? :(

My top suspect as of right now is Ellibereth. I never really took Bridges out of my sights after mentioning him early D1, and though he began to travel back toward the town end of the spectrum later in the Day, I don't like all the abruptness of Ellibereth's facts and figures with lacking rationality. The Elementary/Ellibereth conflict tweaked scum for me, and as it's the scummiest thing I think I've seen today, he ranks number 1, though not enough to vote. Yet.

I would like to see a bit more from Nacho on Ellibereth's allegations. Whether or not he'd be, what was it? the "most informative lynch" is debateable, and I'd like to see Nacho's opinion.
Town: 2. 2.
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Post Post #481 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:33 am

Post by Ellibereth »

Why is IIOA a scumtell when the information is hard and tedious to datamine?
Easiest way to get a reads on anyone is to push them sick hard. Standard technique. And anyone who has played with me before knows that I prioritize town reads over scumreads.
I have read 2 pages of D1 and everything since I've replaced in. I might read a few more of D1 if I get in the mood. For those who are worried, I'll survive just fine. I read 10 pages or so in a 100 page theme and 5/7 in two 20 page minis I replaced into. Worked out great.
Vote Counts ARE GOSPEL. I am usually willing to lynch someone based on votecounts without reading a single post they've made.
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Post Post #482 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:40 am

Post by Panacea »

Ellibereth wrote: Why is IIOA a scumtell when the information is hard and tedious to datamine?
Because it's easier to code information in the game than to fabricate lies.
Ellibereth wrote: I read 10 pages or so in a 100 page theme and 5/7 in two 20 page minis I replaced into. Worked out great.
Um... :?
Ellibereth wrote: Vote Counts ARE GOSPEL. I am usually willing to lynch someone based on votecounts without reading a single post they've made.
Um... :?
Town: 2. 2.
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Post Post #483 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:47 am

Post by Ellibereth »

Some of my replacement meta if anyone is interested:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 83#2055483
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 70#2086070
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 81#2150781 (Note most of those quotes are from the first few pages, also note the scumteam at the bottom)
MD post by me: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 41#2193041

And come on...I'm better than Xyl sometimes, I heard he read 0 pages on occasion. :P

Vote: Nacho
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Post Post #484 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:47 am

Post by Acosmist »

Ellibereth: I thought the misuse of data was a tactic to elicit a reaction from EF. Why is that continuing?

PS you owe us a complete statistical work-up on that stuff you posted. Get crackin', boy.
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Post Post #485 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:50 am

Post by Ellibereth »

Acosmist wrote:Ellibereth: I thought the misuse of data was a tactic to elicit a reaction from EF. Why is that continuing?

PS you owe us a complete statistical work-up on that stuff you posted. Get crackin', boy.
The misuse was to get a reaction.
The accuracy of the data still stands and can be used as a supplement in the future. The vote patterns is to make it easier for me to look at the progression of the game through D1.
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Post Post #486 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:50 am

Post by Acosmist »

Ellibereth wrote:
Acosmist wrote:Ellibereth: I thought the misuse of data was a tactic to elicit a reaction from EF. Why is that continuing?

PS you owe us a complete statistical work-up on that stuff you posted. Get crackin', boy.
The misuse was to get a reaction.
The accuracy of the data still stands and can be used as a supplement in the future. The vote patterns is to make it easier for me to look at the progression of the game through D1.
OK, you are unteachable.
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Post Post #487 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:51 am

Post by Ellibereth »

Good, you can give up now then.
Pana, do me a favor and link me to your completed games? kthx.
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Post Post #488 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:04 am

Post by Panacea »

Post #27:
Panacea wrote:
Acosmist wrote: Can you provide links to your completed games, Panacea?
But of course:

My first game was Newbie #863, as Vanilla Townie (fun stuff- four Doc claims)
My second was Newbie #890, as Vanilla Town. More fun; just ended less than an hour ago.
Third was Newbie # 868, as Mafia Roleblocker. I replaced into that one on the last Day as a favor with deadline a few days away. If you're going to judge my scumplay, I'd prefer you not hold that one against me. :D
My fourth was Newbie #879, as Roleblocker. I'm rather proud of that one. :twisted:
Uhm... You SURE you read page two, there, buddy..? -.-
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Post Post #489 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:04 am

Post by Panacea »

You might get on that. Kthx. :P
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Post Post #490 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:07 am

Post by Ellibereth »

I read the last two of D1, not the first two. Thanks anyways. :P
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Post Post #491 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:10 am

Post by Ellibereth »

EBWOP: I also read the first page of the game yaddy yaddy yaddy so that makes 3, but yeah, you are conservative with your vote across the board. Town again.
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Post Post #492 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 12:24 pm

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Panacea wrote: Not much more than that, it's true. But could you, for the record, tell us exactly what you observed in the other game as opposed to this one? I have an interest in hearing it, if you've got a sec.
The Cojin in the other game voiced his opinion a lot more; he voiced more things about more suspects, and he was right most of the time. I suppose it was because he was more invested in that game than this one.
Panacea wrote: I would like to see a bit more from Nacho on Ellibereth's allegations. Whether or not he'd be, what was it? the "most informative lynch" is debateable, and I'd like to see Nacho's opinion.
I see his points in areas, but it's hard to see what he's trying to get across when he doesn't explain anything. I'm confused why he doesn't post BaB's numbers as well (so we'd have someone to compare with Ray), and I really don't see anything to defend against until he's read the game and has something for me to respond to.

Saying I'm the most informative lynch is a useless declaration because he doesn't explain what he'll get out of my lynch, town or scum. I've seen both town and scum label a player the most informative lynch, and normally they really fail to provide the information they've gained after the lynch goes through.
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-- Fate, Vanilla Townie, was brutally stabbed by a throwing sword in endgame.
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Post Post #493 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 2:43 pm

Post by Ellibereth »

Ok. CLEAR LOGIC TIME.
A) There was scum on Lawls' lynch.
B) The wagon was composed of: Cojin, Acosmist, Elementary Fermion, Nachomamma8, Panacea.
C) Cojin is town. Acosmist and Fermi are both blatantly town.
D) The decision is between you and Pana. I get a better feel from Pana from the first page and after replacing in.
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Post Post #494 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:01 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

A) There's an exception to every rule. Take for example, the day 1 doc lynch in the following game: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 78&start=0. Assuming scum on Lawls's lynch is improper induction.

B) It's worth it to put the wagon into context. Cojin believed Lawls was scum because he thought Lawls's replacing/not-replacing stunt was a lie. Lawls was the top suspect of Acosmist practically the entire day; however, the reasons for this weren't expanded on too much. The last three votes were tagged on so a lynch was possible.

C) Improper induction again. Neither are "blatantly" town.

D) Reads on people based on the first page are barely accurate.
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Post Post #495 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:07 pm

Post by Ellibereth »

A) Exception's are rare enough. If something is greater than 80% I'm happy. ESPECIALLY on a wagon that built up that fast, there is scum. DO NOT try to discredit that fact. You know that VA works.

B) Hi, I no the context, it's why I made the pretty color chart earlier this page.

C) Yes they are.

D) I pegged an entire scumteam with first-page reads in Tech Tree. I've also read Pana's recent posts.
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Post Post #496 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:40 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

A) But you have to give yourself room for error. VA works most of the time, and not all of the time. Now's one of those times, and if you want to use it effectively, you have to identify these times. And why did that wagon build up so fast again? Hmm...

B) Those are vote patterns, not context for vote. You know the difference.

C) No they aren't. Yes they are. No they aren't. Yes they are. No they aren't... And the fact that you don't 100% know that they're both town gives uncertainty to the VC analysis. I'd certainly trust it more if you read more of the game...

D) That doesn't mean that you'll do it this time, and recent posts + the first page certainly isn't enough for a halfway decent read.
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-- Fate, Vanilla Townie, was brutally stabbed by a throwing sword in endgame.
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Post Post #497 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:52 pm

Post by Ellibereth »

A) 1 exception out of several hundred. I'm ignoring it.
B) I could care less about context. Fact: Wagon built up in abnormally fast speed and led up to town lynch. That's all I care about.
C) I don't need you to trust my reads. I'M ACCUSING YOU. I mean, shit, I don't know why I'm even talking to you.
D) I disagree. That much is already clear anyway.

Anyway, not wasting my time arguing with scum. The above is worded so you hopefully don't have to reply to it. Acos already said you're scum. I recall fitz did too. I need one more person.
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Post Post #498 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:56 pm

Post by Ellibereth »

nacho, if you don't reply to the above post in particular (feel free to do anything else) in the next 12 hours I'll even give you a PRESENT (because I still do love you so much even if you're scum etc. etc. etc.) and read some of the game!
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Post Post #499 (ISO) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 4:21 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

There are 2 reasons I'm accepting your offer.

1) There's a great chance for a Ray-Fitz scumpair, and I'm curious if you see what I see.

2) The only way I'm going to counter a lazy response such as that is with rebuttals that are 1000+ words long, and I don't feel like typing it up. But if your reading through the game produces nothing, I'll craft a post to put Acosmist to shame.
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