Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.Sando wrote:Man, these laces are never going to get done up.Porkens wrote:Right, which means that each scum knew which 4 numbers not to pick. That's 4 less chances to get bumped to the back of the list than each town had.PranaDevil wrote:Not really, they're only more likely to get the #1 pick out of all the scum, they still have zero knowledge on the town's numbers (except for those who rolled in the sign up thread). They're all just as likely to find themselves either beaten by a lucky town player, or lodged alongside a town player (or a pair, or a trio) who picked the same first number as them.
No matter how you talk it, that is just as likely whether they are scum or not,the only thing we know scum could co-ordinate is whether they had the same numbers as another scum member.
Yeah, scum have a better chance of noone else choosing their number. My napkin maths puts each scum at around 31% chance of that. Napkin maths puts Masons at ~25% and Town at ~23.5%. So yes, you're right, scum individually have better odds.
However, there's 3 times as many townies compared to scum... and then you've got masons on top of that...
The top spot is most likely to be a townie. But then I'm pretty sure every slot is most likely to be a townie.
PS, my napkin maths is (14/15)^(number people who could choose the same number). So it's:
Scum = (14/15)^17
Mason = (14/15)^20
Townie = (14/15)^21
This only works out the chance of noone else choosing your number though.
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Zang Mafia Scum
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Sando Mafia Scum
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Ok, I'm not responding to simple reasoning without any maths, if you know I'm wrong, and I'm more than willing to accept that I could well be horribly wrong, then show me how. I can't say that I'm fantastic at stats, but I've done Stats 101 and work with stats a fair bit at work.
Also, we know that Scum were number theory'ing this. I've previously stated why a low second number is the best option, yet the top person chose 12 for their second number? Why?
Fate, why are you quoting scum-motivated maths?-
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Parama Survivor
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I don't feel like participating in this game right now. All this arguing over massclaiming and statistics is pointless.ShowEver wanted a playlist full of a lot of music I really dig? Here you go.
RateYourMusic page because song contests are like the only reason I'm still here.
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Socrates Mafia Scum
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Parama Survivor
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## unvote
## vote: manhoShowEver wanted a playlist full of a lot of music I really dig? Here you go.
RateYourMusic page because song contests are like the only reason I'm still here.
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sorasgoof Goon
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CryMeARiver Mafia Scum
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I agree, I am bored with it. But I like my vote and I still think you and soras are scumbuddies.Parama wrote:I don't feel like participating in this game right now. All this arguing over massclaiming and statistics is pointless.ShowYou can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.
"postgame i'm going to pee on you gandalf
pee on you" - Chesskid
V/LA (No access) from July 8th - July 14th
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Parama Survivor
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lololololololololololCryMeARiver wrote:
I agree, I am bored with it. But I like my vote and I still think you and soras are scumbuddies.Parama wrote:I don't feel like participating in this game right now. All this arguing over massclaiming and statistics is pointless.ShowEver wanted a playlist full of a lot of music I really dig? Here you go.
RateYourMusic page because song contests are like the only reason I'm still here.
GET TO KNOW ME
I basically post like I'm always on twitter, ignore my spamminess.-
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sorasgoof Goon
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Socrates Mafia Scum
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CryMeARiver Mafia Scum
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You must be blind then.CryMeARiver wrote:
Or maybe it's an RL wagon and we got lucky, yet you are worried for your scumbuddyParama wrote:I don't get why we're wagoning soras.
Oddly enough, manho is scummiest, so I'm voting manho.
Soras wagon feels scum driven.
ShowYou can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.
"postgame i'm going to pee on you gandalf
pee on you" - Chesskid
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Fate :HAPPY:
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The maths were real. And the scum plan, (brilliantly, I'll add once more) was to get me lynched, and then town would be afraid of touching number analysis ever again. AND/OR bus Hoopla, so that when she flipped scum town would go "# ANALYSIS IS ALL LIEZ!" When in fact it was true, and if we had used it at LyLo and lynched Jack instead one of the doubled up numbers, we would have likely won.Sando wrote:Ok, I'm not responding to simple reasoning without any maths, if you know I'm wrong, and I'm more than willing to accept that I could well be horribly wrong, then show me how. I can't say that I'm fantastic at stats, but I've done Stats 101 and work with stats a fair bit at work.
Also, we know that Scum were number theory'ing this. I've previously stated why a low second number is the best option, yet the top person chose 12 for their second number? Why?
Fate, why are you quoting scum-motivated maths?
Soras choose his numbers then never looked at thread again, apparently. So how did you choose your role?
Random.org?Fate is absurdly beautiful. 運命に弄ばれる
"Fate you keep alternating between narratives of doing it for fun and doing it for the sake of winning"-
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dramonic Survivor
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At least make me polite if you're going to make me scumFate wrote:"Oh fuck, soras is going down! I thought Fate was too stupid to follow my numbers theory!"-Hoopla
"Let's just have a few of us keep softdefending him"-DGB
"I'm bussing this dumbass! He's a liability!"-Dram
"What should we have him claim so they leave him alive? Vig right? That way we can just redirect his kills and he'll have a few more days to live"-???
"Yeah sounds good."I'm a hoot
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dramonic Survivor
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Thank you Fate, I feel much better nowI'm a hoot
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Zang Mafia Scum
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Pomegranate Mafia Scum
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This sounds about right.Fate wrote:"Oh fuck, soras is going down! I thought Fate was too stupid to follow my numbers theory!"-Hoopla
"Let's just have a few of us keep softdefending him"-DGB
"I'm bussing this dumbass! He's a liability!"-Dram
"What should we have him claim so they leave him alive? Vig right? That way we can just redirect his kills and he'll have a few more days to live"-???
"Yeah sounds good."
Maybe manho could be the question marks though.Show"You're a silly Pom. Silly silly girl." -Fate
"I didn't want to use you Pom... I never killed you. I didn't endgame you it was my evil buddies!
Sowwy >_<" -scumFate.
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Parama Survivor
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I still lolololololololCryMeARiver wrote:
You must be blind then.CryMeARiver wrote:
Or maybe it's an RL wagon and we got lucky, yet you are worried for your scumbuddyParama wrote:I don't get why we're wagoning soras.
Oddly enough, manho is scummiest, so I'm voting manho.
Soras wagon feels scum driven.ShowEver wanted a playlist full of a lot of music I really dig? Here you go.
RateYourMusic page because song contests are like the only reason I'm still here.
GET TO KNOW ME
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CryMeARiver Mafia Scum
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Be more scummy please.Parama wrote:
I still lolololololololCryMeARiver wrote:
You must be blind then.CryMeARiver wrote:
Or maybe it's an RL wagon and we got lucky, yet you are worried for your scumbuddyParama wrote:I don't get why we're wagoning soras.
Oddly enough, manho is scummiest, so I'm voting manho.
Soras wagon feels scum driven.ShowYou can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.
"postgame i'm going to pee on you gandalf
pee on you" - Chesskid
V/LA (No access) from July 8th - July 14th
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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Soras is town.
Post 456 smells very truthy.
This wagon must stop immediately.
Now I'm going to look at his wagon and name to the scum riding first class.Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
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Super Awesome Mega Zord! Goon
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PranaDevil Mafia Scum
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DrippingGoofball Mafia Piñata
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He's town.Super Awesome Mega Pimp! wrote:
that you haven't posted anything meaningfulsorasgoof wrote:@SAMP- what exactly are your accusations that I'm supposed to be addressing?Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.
"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet
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