Square Enix Mafia I: Diabolus Erus (GAME OVER)

[bill1148]

@Glork

Just to make sure, you are 100% positive that you were not told of being inflicted with two status ailments Night 1, correct?

---

Vote Count:

Antifinity: 4

(Iecerint, FC Groningen, dramonic, Chronopie)

PranaDevil: 4

(MehPlusRawr, JPSalazar, Antifinity, Glork)

Chronopie: 2

(Devotress, bv310)

wolframnhart: 2

(WorseExcuse, bill1148)

Iecerint: 1

(KDub)

Glork: 1

(PranaDevil)

WorseExcuse: 0

(wolframnhart)

Not Voting:

DragonsofSummer
inHimshallibe

Lynch:

9 votes.

Deadline:

May 16th - 3:00 PM EST

[Iecerint]

I will summarize your argument as I see it. You can tell me where I am doing it wrong.

1. Maybe vote + blind are different abilities, but probably not due to math.
2. So Wolf parsimoniously immune to the vote part of a single ability.
3. So Wolf is probably not scum, since anonvoteblind looks like a scum ability.

*4. But wait he's not VT either, since that wouldn't make sense or something.*

OK, I got it. The starred bit was throwing me. Your point is that it's probably one ability, Wolfie wouldn't be immune to the vote part if he were really VT, and lynch all liars.

[Chronopie]

What's to say that someone isn't a shadow voter? Doesn't have to be a scum player either. Just a double voter with a night mechanic to their second vote.

Therefore Vote, Blind are different abilitites. Therefore Wolf could be any ****ing role in the game.

Also, to be immune to part of an ability would be bastard-y.

I don't buy it.

[bill1148]

What's to say that someone isn't a shadow voter? Doesn't have to be a scum player either. Just a double voter with a night mechanic to their second vote.

Therefore Vote, Blind are different abilitites. Therefore Wolf could be any ****ing role in the game.

Also, to be immune to part of an ability would be bastard-y.

I don't buy it.

A few problems with this.

Foremost, your explanation does not detail why a player had an Anon. Vote on them at the start of this Day Phase, whereas there was one for the previous one. Also, the entirety of your arguement is that there exists a double-voter. Which is plausible, not probable. And if Glork was targetted by a "double-voter," wouldn't he have been told such (but again, I'd like Glork to definitively clarify that he was only targetted by one ability Night One)?

[bill1148]

Also, something you (Chrono) and Iece seem to be forgetting is that there exists the

possibility

probability of there being TWO mafia groups, or 3rd party (Serial Killer). I am theorizing that one mafia group targetted another mafia group, or the mafia group targetted a SK, or the SK targetted a mafia.

[bill1148]

Foremost, your explanation does not detail why a player had an Anon. Vote on them at the start of

the previous

Day Phase, whereas there

wasn't one for this Day Phase

.

Fixed.

[bill1148]

What's to say that someone isn't a shadow voter? Doesn't have to be a scum player either. Just a double voter with a night mechanic to their second vote.

Therefore Vote, Blind are different abilitites. Therefore Wolf could be any ****ing role in the game.

Also, to be immune to part of an ability would be bastard-y.

I don't buy it.

A few problems with this.

Foremost, your explanation does not detail why a player had an Anon. Vote on them at the start of this Day Phase, whereas there was one for the previous one. Also, the entirety of your arguement is that there exists a double-voter. Which is plausible, not probable. And if Glork was targetted by a "double-voter," wouldn't he have been told such (but again, I'd like Glork to definitively clarify that he was only targetted by one ability Night One)?

Something that I forgot to mention here, but if there exists a "double-voter," and if Blind and Anon. Vote are two separate abilities used by two different players, do you know how small the probability is that the same player was targetted by two different players in the same Night Phase?

I'll do the math for you. There were 22 players during Night Phase 1. If you assume Blind & Anon. Vote are two different abilities, and taking into consideration that the user of Blind & Anon. cannot use it on themselves, means that both players can target 21 other players. Which means the chances of one player using an ability on Glork is 1/21.

(Assuming that Blind & Anon. Vote are used by different players)
1/21 x 1/21=

1/441 chance of two players using two abilities on one player (Glork).

If you change that to a percentage chance, then the chance of that happening is .002%

Obviously, this is a bit off. This assumes random probability, and from what I can tell, Glork is one of the better players, and thus would be more likely be a prime target for two abilities from two players (although Blind seems like a pro-scum ability and double-voter sounds like a pro-town ability, thus, if assuming he was targetted by two players, it means he was targetted by two players of opposite spectrums). And also granted, this assumes there are no limitations on using "double voter (assuming it exists)" and that a decent player is using it. I see no reason to use a double vote ability Night 1 if it's pro-town (unless a fool is using it), especially if its a one-shot ability.

[Glork]

I also don't remember you saying that, but you know, or should know, that it makes you 'seem' pro-town to be affected by an anti-town ability.

That would make some sense if I hadn't

EXPLICITLY SAID

that it has no effect on me:

Sure, being Blind has no bearing on how likely I am to be protown.

You CANNOT say that I'm trying to make myself seem protown when I explicitly say I should not seem protown. It's complete and utter horse shit.

I also don't understand how on earth anybody can say "he's been cleared as being scum and is riding that" when no less than three people have voted me, and at least ine (Chrono overnight) FoS'd me.

@Bill: I was only told about the black goo in my eyes and being blind. My posts from D1 make it very clear that I had no clue whether or not the anonvote was related.

[Glork]

Also, I'd say that the odds of a scum removing my vote D1 were astronomically more than 1/21.

I'm going to allow myself to be cocky for a few minutes here and state that in any general mafia game, my vote holds more weight than just about any other person on the site. It's no secret that I'm one of the best scumhunters this site has ever seen, and when I talk, people listen to me. I'm forceful, I'm aggressive, I'm more accurate than most, and I am convincing.
I FIRMLY believe that the Blinder (and/or his scumgroup) decided that I was likely to be protected N1, so rather than killing me, they did the next best thing. They neutralized my vote. I have zero doubt in my mind that whoever the Blinder is, they are scum, and that they wanted to try to keep me out of the game as much as possible.

I had also considered the possibility that I was protected last night, and that the same group tried to kill me and blind somebody else, but the whole Doom thing kindof debunks that. It's still a possiblity if our Doomer is a vigilante, though I have no idea why they'd have targeted Starbuck.


Also, re: Iece. Your use of Burden of Proficieny has been noted. I still haven't forgotten that Death Millers are almost exclusively used in Bastard-Modded games, and that this was not advertised as a Bastard-Modded game.

[Iecerint]

Hey, at least it wasn't subtle!

[Glork]

Prana, to sum up why I feel you're a decent scum candidate:
-- You had that terrible and hypocritical attack on me early D1 (Post 108),
-- You've been quite wagonly. Iece wagon, Zodiark wagon, Antifinity wagon... really every significant pile of votes we've had, you've been a part of
-- Also guilty of Burden of Proficiency towards me ("you've done a lot of talking, but haven't gotten us far")

What pushed my vote back to you was your timing/positioning on the Antifinity wagon, combined with my earlier sentiments towards you.




On a completely different note, I feel like we're in a bit of a rut here. The following people need to contribute significantly more:
MehPlusRawr
JP Salazar
inHim
bv

I'd like to highlight BV a little, actually, as his most recent post was pretty horrible. There's was a ton going on when he decided to "check in" -- the Wolf/Tidus thing, Prana votes, there was plenty to comment about the Zodiark wagon at the end of yesterday... but he just kinda dumps a wagon vote on Chrono, says peace out, and hasn't posted since then. It's opportunistic, it's :nothelpful: at best, it's selective, and it highlights BV's presence in this game as a whole. There's a very decent chance that BV is lurkish scum just kinda skating by. He was also 7th on the Zodiark wagon D1, which is right in that range from it being "legit wagon" to "probable lynch."

[Glork]

EBWOP: Add WorseExcuse to the list of people who need to post more.

[Glork]

Unvote, Vote: BV{/b]

[Glork]

.....

Unvote, Vote: BV

[PranaDevil]

Prana, to sum up why I feel you're a decent scum candidate:
-- You had that terrible and hypocritical attack on me early D1 (Post 108),
-- You've been quite wagonly. Iece wagon, Zodiark wagon, Antifinity wagon... really every significant pile of votes we've had, you've been a part of
-- Also guilty of Burden of Proficiency towards me ("you've done a lot of talking, but haven't gotten us far")

What pushed my vote back to you was your timing/positioning on the Antifinity wagon, combined with my earlier sentiments towards you.

To be honest, I entered the game thinking I knew enough about Square games to at least roll with it, and quickly found others knew much, much more than me. So going with the flow became a bit easier, especially when good cases were made. Now if agreeing with a case is scummy, then by all means, throw the book at me, but isn't the point of making a case to try and convince others?

Either way, I can assure you I'm not scum. But then I guess even scum would say that.

On a completely different note, I feel like we're in a bit of a rut here. The following people need to contribute significantly more:
MehPlusRawr
JP Salazar
inHim
bv

I'd like to highlight BV a little, actually, as his most recent post was pretty horrible. There's was a ton going on when he decided to "check in" -- the Wolf/Tidus thing, Prana votes, there was plenty to comment about the Zodiark wagon at the end of yesterday... but he just kinda dumps a wagon vote on Chrono, says peace out, and hasn't posted since then. It's opportunistic, it's :nothelpful: at best, it's selective, and it highlights BV's presence in this game as a whole. There's a very decent chance that BV is lurkish scum just kinda skating by. He was also 7th on the Zodiark wagon D1, which is right in that range from it being "legit wagon" to "probable lynch."

But I'm in agreement with this, in regards to people needing to post more. WorseExcuse appears to have more or less vanished, and pops in every so often blaming the "other partner" for not showing up, which would be a great little tactic for active lurking in all honesty.

[Iecerint]

The Ani half of WorseExcuse posted 6 times in another game today. FYI.

[wolframnhart]

WorseExcuse appears to have more or less vanished, and pops in every so often blaming the "other partner" for not showing up, which would be a great little tactic for active lurking in all honesty.

One of the reasons i voted him, though my vote means shit with Blind on me.

[WorseExcuse]

WorseExcuse appears to have more or less vanished, and pops in every so often blaming the "other partner" for not showing up, which would be a great little tactic for active lurking in all honesty.

One of the reasons i voted him, though my vote means shit with Blind on me.

First,

unvote, vote Iecerint

. Paltry agrees that Death Miller claims are scummy.

Second, I voted like that because Glork made sense.

Third, Paltryhas stated in thread that he is rereading. At this point, he is done Day 1 (at least, that's what he said).

@Iece:

I check in on the game, and post when I feel I should.

[Glork]

Questions for Ani:
Which three players are most likely to be scum, right now?

[JPSalazar]

I'm just going to point out that in real life, I see many doctors, so I contribute when I can. It's not like I lurk the boards.

PLUS, everything is at a standstill. I said that I believed Prana to be scum, and I have no reason to change my mind.

[Glork]

Who else might be scum? What specifically do you want Prana to answer for?


I am not moved by your posts at all. You complain that the game is dragging, yet you do NOTHING to help move it. Ask direct questions to people if you want to hear them talk. But don't sit on the sidelines, say "this is going nowhere," and then do NOTHING to help it move.

[JPSalazar]

Well, excuse me, Mr.-I-Will-Choose-Everyone-To-Complain-About.

I said it enough times in the past that either Prana didn't make sense, or just gave off the scummy vibe through their words. Prana's been hypocritial, and a bandwagon jumper. I don't want Prana to answer for anything. Honestly?

As for you? Get off my back, because I've at least provided insight in the past. It's at a standstill because either there's too many lurkers, or people just can't decide to go through with something. My posts aren't an attempt to move you. That's what my sermons are for.

[FC Groningen]

FC:
It was more the way your post was worded that seemed odd to me. It felt like you were trying to hedge your suspicions, waiting to see which wagon was going to take off so you could have an excuse to join any of them.

Icerint voting on both lists is sort of understandable if he really is a "special death miller" since he wants to get any scum killed before himself, even if that means some town die while he waits for that event.

That's not understandable at all because it's a terrible way to play if he really is town. This seems like a weak excuse you are making for him.

Wouldn't I have to switch more often then? Although, I would be ok with more pressure for all of them. I haven't seen Anti respond to the main point (rolefishing) yet, just as Chrono's jumpyness and awkward defence where it wasn't needed. Also, there is Prana that seems to be a constant suspect.

I agree that it more or less appeared that he knew he wasn't going to die in the case he would be the one to cast the last vote, so Prana, in case I've missed it in the last pages, what made you vote? His vote on Glork feels OMGUS, especially if there are better alternatives available. Later admits to setup speculation "but others do it as well". Never been a good argument.

"Of course, when I eventually flip you'll all see that I was being honest. "

Appeal to emotion?


Long story short, I think that as long as we divide our votes over 3 or more people, this game will remain stagnant. Would like to hear from Anti before I'd move my vote. As it stands now, Prana would be my second guess.

[PranaDevil]

I agree that it more or less appeared that he knew he wasn't going to die in the case he would be the one to cast the last vote, so Prana, in case I've missed it in the last pages, what made you vote?

Exactly what I stated at the time, I was of the vision (as others were as well) that the Doom countdown would take out whoever cast the final vote. I knew people suspected me heavily, and rather than continuing to have town firing off in the wrong direction, I could be beneficial to town by taking one on the chin for us. If Starbuck had posted earlier that she had that PM, I wouldn't have been so ready to vote when I did.

His vote on Glork feels OMGUS, especially if there are better alternatives available.

If from my entire reason for voting him is "OMGUS" then you've not read it thoroughly enough

Later admits to setup speculation "but others do it as well". Never been a good argument.

I was not aware speculating on how things could well be was scummy. In fact I've never known it be scummy, why should it be scummy to consider things such as whether there's more than one lightning based character and the like? I'd class it more as "looking at the problem logically", but that's just me.

"Of course, when I eventually flip you'll all see that I was being honest. "

Appeal to emotion?

Only if you're deliberately attempting to stretch it that far. It's obviously not.

[JPSalazar]

Ok. Since I am not going to be here for the next 48 hours, as I'm checking myself into a hospital tonight for pre-operative surgery tests, I want to ask this:

Prana, are you willing to claim your role to prove you're not scum?

Granted, this is merely a question, and you may decline to so if you wish. We've had a lot of discussion, and I would think that, if indeed your intentions were noble in the Doom voting, you'd be willing to at least clear up the attention focused on you by claiming your role within this game. Not only to shut me up, but to basically prove me wrong about you being scum.