Newbie 922: Day 3

[Furry]

Nacho's here, and vanilla.

Now, Elli can get to explaining why I'm scum.

I already thought a combo of PoE and VC's like ten million times. I'll be redoing the latter again when I have time.
Furry: Fermion blow-up made him look pretty town to me.

Well I had the same basic thought process yesterday, but at this point im a bit confused, had a very strong town read on you and Asc yesterday, EF was very scummy untill that snap, nacho seemed to hinge on there being a cop.

Since there isnt a cop, the biggest problem most had with nacho no longer exists so im thinking that was a mislynch target that scum failed to get through yesterday when they should have.

Talking in circles...

If nacho though is a mislynch at least one of my strong town reads is wrong which I dont think is the case, but at least a medium one is wrong. EF was for whatever reason calling you scum yesterday for reasons unknown (or just confusing) which makes me default back to him for first scum.

Either way, there are only six possible pairings to consider and we can strike a few on interactions (nacho/asc, nacho/eli, EF/eli)

Which leaves

nacho/EF
EF/asc
eli/asc

im not going to bother with the eli/asc pairing since I think both are likely town, which leaves nach-EF or EF-asc. Given that EF is in both of my pairings, I chose to start there. I guess nacho lynch isnt bad, but there are better spots to be looking.

Also updated VC analysis Eli?

Votecount

Not Voting - 5 (Acosmist, Furry, Elementary Fermion, Nachomamma8, Ellibereth)

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

[Acosmist]

I already thought a combo of PoE and VC's like ten million times. I'll be redoing the latter again when I have time.
Furry: Fermion blow-up made him look pretty town to me.

I don't know what you are trying to say here. Write clearly.

If you intend to throw statistics out there again (I fear this is what you're saying), bring the relevance this time.

Well I had the same basic thought process yesterday, but at this point im a bit confused, had a very strong town read on you and Asc yesterday, EF was very scummy untill that snap, nacho seemed to hinge on there being a cop.

Hm...

Since there isnt a cop, the biggest problem most had with nacho no longer exists so im thinking that was a mislynch target that scum failed to get through yesterday when they should have.

I really don't get this. Can you explain what the problem was with Nacho? And how, with no one claiming cop, that problem doesn't exist?

If nacho though is a mislynch at least one of my strong town reads is wrong which I dont think is the case, but at least a medium one is wrong.

How do you know that he's a mislynch ex ante?

And if he's a mislynch, we lose.

EF was for whatever reason calling you scum yesterday for reasons unknown (or just confusing) which makes me default back to him for first scum.

I am pretty sure EF and I see the same things, but sure, let him explain. His reasons seemed fine to me.

Either way, there are only six possible pairings to consider and we can strike a few on interactions (nacho/asc, nacho/eli, EF/eli)

Why not Nacho/Ellibereth?

im not going to bother with the eli/asc pairing since I think both are likely town, which leaves nach-EF or EF-asc.

Ellibereth is likely town?

I guess nacho lynch isnt bad, but there are better spots to be looking.

Not sure how that jibes with the preceding. Aren't you worried he's a mislynch ftl?

I'm not; pretty sure it's Ellibereth and Nacho. The whole havingfitz debacle (yeah, yeah...) ended up strengthening the case against Nacho - I thought it odd that my top two suspects were going at each other as much as they were early day 2, but it's not as difficult to explain now.

Ellibereth is just...well, I'd like to see what he produces today before calling back to all the awful, unresponsive numerical gibberish he spewed yesterday.

Also updated VC analysis Eli?

[Nachomamma8]

So, Acosmist. Are you going to post a case against me, or...?

[Acosmist]

So, Acosmist. Are you going to post a case against me, or...?

Another one? Will you read it this time?

[Nachomamma8]

Sure, if it actually holds compressed and convincing points put in a non-quote stripe form...

Succinctness is pro-town, you know.

[Acosmist]

Sure, if it actually holds compressed and convincing points put in a non-quote stripe form...

Succinctness is pro-town, you know.

Oh, you're back on this kick again. OK.

That's part of the case, actually.

[Nachomamma8]

Excellent, I look forward to it.

[Furry]

Since there isnt a cop, the biggest problem most had with nacho no longer exists so im thinking that was a mislynch target that scum failed to get through yesterday when they should have.

I really don't get this. Can you explain what the problem was with Nacho? And how, with no one claiming cop, that problem doesn't exist?

Nacho I dont see asking for cop claim as scum who knows cop doesnt exist. Its scummy to ask for the claim, and scum know what setup is being used as soon as one player has claimed. Maybe there was other stuff on nacho, but this was the main tell I saw being used.

If nacho though is a mislynch at least one of my strong town reads is wrong which I dont think is the case, but at least a medium one is wrong.

How do you know that he's a mislynch ex ante?

Did I say mislynch? I said if he was town one of my other town reads has to be wrong. Im talking myway through this to try and figure out whats going on.

Either way, there are only six possible pairings to consider and we can strike a few on interactions (nacho/asc, nacho/eli, EF/eli)

Why not Nacho/Ellibereth?

All of yesterday is a good start

im not going to bother with the eli/asc pairing since I think both are likely town, which leaves nach-EF or EF-asc.

Ellibereth is likely town?

Yep, I dont see much reason to think otherwise outside of him being at least half wrong on suspects.

I guess nacho lynch isnt bad, but there are better spots to be looking.

Not sure how that jibes with the preceding. Aren't you worried he's a mislynch ftl?

Yes, thats why I dont want a lynch of him as a top pick. He is in my top PAIRING, but is not my top pick. If everything is correct that lynch should keep the game moving, but im not nearly confidenet enough to persue it.

I'm not; pretty sure it's Ellibereth and Nacho. The whole havingfitz debacle (yeah, yeah...) ended up strengthening the case against Nacho - I thought it odd that my top two suspects were going at each other as much as they were early day 2, but it's not as difficult to explain now.

So its nacho and the person who was pushing for the nacho lynch yesterday using a case there was no way he could back out of easily after a fitz lynch?

[Ellibereth]

I'm putting this here for reference later.

Votecount

Panacea

- 3 (

BridgesandBaloons

,

Lawls

, Edprata)

Lawls

- 1 (Elementary Fermion)

havingfitz

- 1 (Acosmist)
Independent John - 1 (

Panacea

)
Elementary Fermion - 1 (Independent John)

Cojin

- 1 (

havingfitz

)

Not Voting - 1 (

Cojin

)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
-----------------------------
Votecount

Cojin

- 4 (RayFrost,

havingfitz

,

Lawls

, Nachomamma8)

Lawls

- 2 (

Cojin

, Acosmist

Panacea

- 1 (Elementary Fermion)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (

BridgesandBaloons

)

Not Voting - 1 (

Panacea

)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
-----------------------------
Votecount

Cojin

- 3 (RayFrost,

havingfitz

,

Lawls

)

Lawls

- 5 (

Cojin

, Acosmist, Elementary Fermion, Nachomamma8,

Panacea

)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (

BridgesandBaloons

)

Not Voting - 0 ()

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
-------------------------
Votecount

Lawls

- 4 (Elementary Fermion,

Cojin

, Acosmist,

havingfitz

)
Acosmist - 1 (

Lawls

)

Cojin

- 1 (RayFrost)

Not Voting - 2 (

Panacea

, Nachomamma8)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch

-------------------------
Votecount

havingfitz

- 4 (Acosmist, Nachomamma8, Elementary Fermion,

Panacea

)
Nachomamma8 - 2 (

havingfitz

,

Ellibereth

)

Not Voting - 1 (Furry)

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

[Nachomamma8]

All I gather from that is we have one scum in {Acosmist, Nachomamma8, Elementary Fermion,}, and one scum in {Furry, Ellibereth}.

Mod: Going V/LA until Wednesday

Don't do dumb shit before I return.

[Acosmist]

Don't do dumb shit before I return.

Ellibereth, please do not take this as an injunction against posting.

[Acosmist]

Nacho case:

The copfishing by Nacho came before the mafia could be sure Cojin was actually a doc. Getting a cop to out himself does several things, including potentially falsify Cojin's claim.

Day 1, I posted too much. Day 2, he misses the wallposts. Day 3, succinctness is pro-town. Flip-flop-flip. Get an opinion on how mafia should be played. Ask your scumbuddy at night if you need to!

Ridiculous jumping on EF day 1 that had no basis. Seemed peeved someone called him on it.

Limited access for the next two days or so... I look up and I see wallposts, so no post today.

Guess he forgot he missed the wallposts. Oops!

At least he was absent when the havingfitz lynched was finalized. Wait. That's a bad thing.

Ellibereth:

Ellibereth is stonewalling requests for anything.

There. As I am the only person putting any effort into this, that's all you get. Deal, I guess.

[Furry]

There. As I am the only person putting any effort into this, that's all you get. Deal, I guess.

Some of us just have things like professors who decide to give a midterm a week and a half before finals...

will things up soon

[Elementary Fermion]

Furry, I do understand your plight. I have crazy ridiculous finals bearing down on me as well.

Given his total strikeout yesterday, I am a little less inclined to listen to Acosmist today. Sure Nacho flip flopped on the amount he wants to read, but, well, I did the same thing on the amount I want to write. And I am pretty sure that I stayed town the entire time. So, I am thinking I need a stronger case.

Ellibereth, however, by refusing to provide any of the information requested of him comes off as the scummiest to me at the moment.

Finally, I would like to say that Panacea obviously does cherish this site, as she claimed, given my argument on her (re: wanting a townie modkilled) and her flip town. That is pretty noble, and pretty cool. Rock on, RIP, &c.

[Furry]

So im reverting to early game suspicions

Fos EF

Not voting yet, but outside of lylo I would be

However, in an attempt not to extend this day even further, I am not going to change my vote. I voted once with firm conviction and I am standing by it. I am not going to be a 2d or 3d vote on someone and ignite a marathon of "EF is jumping on bandwagons defend yoruself scummy &c."

Now, in the same post as this EF takes a stance against long posts, and takes shots at Asc and Pan for making those type of posts. At the same time though, he says he is not moving his vote, which is not on either of those two people. His vote is actually sitting on lawls for RVS reasons. His posts for the next few days continue to only touch on length of day one.

Later we get a bit more of an explaination, although in hindsight it reeks of setting lynches up

My top choice is still Lawls, which is why I still have my vote on him. I random-voted for him, and the ensuing discussion, mostly by Acosmist and RayFrost, has persuaded me to keep it.

As for my second choice, it is a tie between. . . Acosmist and RayFrost. The sudden hostility is. . . odd. You were both doing what you were doing, and then doing it with anger.

So lawls for what asc and RF (now me) put up on him. Fair enough following someone elses suspicion, what is more concerning is his second suspect. Now, I actually didnt notice this in my first read, but EF seems to draw the conclusion that lawls is actually town. This is from his second suspect being the ones who are pushing the lynch of his first suspect, if he is really doing a 'second is given after first flip', he is already assuming first flip is town. At the very least this is a false dilemma (must be one of X or Y, when it could be neither).

Will get more on this later.

[Acosmist]

Really would like to hear what Ellibereth has to say.

And nothing EF had said has seemed scummy. Make a better case if you think he's mafia.

[Nachomamma8]

The copfishing by Nacho came before the mafia could be sure Cojin was actually a doc. Getting a cop to out himself does several things, including potentially falsify Cojin's claim.

And what reason did I have to doubt Cojin? Because of how close Cojin got to a lynch

after

his claim, it was obvious that he would make an easy mislynch anyways. So why the hell would I care whether he was vanilla townie OR doc at that point?

Day 1, I posted too much. Day 2, he misses the wallposts. Day 3, succinctness is pro-town. Flip-flop-flip.

Posts like the one I'm making annoy me when I see eight of them to a page. When it gets to the point where I'm not seeing a quarter of the content you produced before, then I'd rather be flooded by wallposts as opposed to not seeing any posts. And succinctness is pro-town. I'll wall battle with the best of them if it's a confirmed town I'm protecting, but if the rest of the town isn't even going to read it, then what's the use?

At least he was absent when the havingfitz lynched was finalized. Wait. That's a bad thing.

Erm, how? I was obviously in support of the lynch. What else did you need me to say?

[Acosmist]

And what reason did I have to doubt Cojin? Because of how close Cojin got to a lynch

after

his claim, it was obvious that he would make an easy mislynch anyways. So why the hell would I care whether he was vanilla townie OR doc at that point?

It's definitely been speculated that he could have been fakeclaiming.

And as easy a mislynch as he was...he wasn't lynched.

Posts like the one I'm making annoy me when I see eight of them to a page. When it gets to the point where I'm not seeing a quarter of the content you produced before, then I'd rather be flooded by wallposts as opposed to not seeing any posts. And succinctness is pro-town. I'll wall battle with the best of them if it's a confirmed town I'm protecting, but if the rest of the town isn't even going to read it, then what's the use?

OK, it annoys you and you're just restating, rather than providing any defense of, your claim that succinctness is now pro-town.

Though I guess that could change at any time.

Gonna go ahead and stop caring.

Erm, how? I was obviously in support of the lynch. What else did you need me to say?

Anything? Participate in the game.

So Ellibereth or Nacho first? Has Ellibereth been gone almost a week?

[Furry]

Anything? Participate in the game.

So Ellibereth or Nacho first? Has Ellibereth been gone almost a week?

Game does need prods. Although you are fairly guilty of tunneling at this point, which in lylo is pretty dangerous.

Finals for me start next week, last one is the 11th. Untill then im going to be much quieter then normal since passing classes > MS.

[Acosmist]

Anything? Participate in the game.

So Ellibereth or Nacho first? Has Ellibereth been gone almost a week?

Game does need prods. Although you are fairly guilty of tunneling at this point, which in lylo is pretty dangerous.

Finals for me start next week, last one is the 11th. Untill then im going to be much quieter then normal since passing classes > MS.

Oh the tunneling canard

we're back to that :/

Must be like Hogan's Heroes in here, with all the

separate

tunnels I'm making.

[Furry]

Well given that it seems that there is zero way you dont vote one of nach/elli which is almost an impossible pairing... yeah you are tunneling.

[Acosmist]

Well given that it seems that there is zero way you dont vote one of nach/elli which is almost an impossible pairing... yeah you are tunneling.

That's because I prefer not to lose :teach:

[Elementary Fermion]

Well given that it seems that there is zero way you dont vote one of nach/elli which is almost an impossible pairing... yeah you are tunneling.

How is that pair not possible? (Is one of them a pair with you?)

Seriously, Ellibereth needs to come back at some point and explain his number methods and various unsupported conclusory assertions. Not doing so is super suspicious.

Also, I do not get the animosity directed at Acosmist, who is the only one playing this game the way everyone on this site seems to say it is supposed to be played. How can you want someone to look at what someone says, respond to it, analyze it, draw inferences from it, yet do so without using sentences and quotes and words and all that stuff? Nacho, stop deflecting and whining.

[Furry]

Well given that it seems that there is zero way you dont vote one of nach/elli which is almost an impossible pairing... yeah you are tunneling.

How is that pair not possible? (Is one of them a pair with you?)

Remember Eli laying into nacho yesterday? That makes no sense if they are partners since its going to quickly bring WIFOM to Eli before endgame, there was an easy town lynch to push through first, he wasnt stuck on the wagon... there is no good reason for someone as good as Eli is to bus a partner like that. I see it as actually the least likely existing pairing out there right now.

[Ellibereth]

Hell week of test ends next week. Will be back then.