Newbie 922: Day 3
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Depends on my mood.Pan wrote:Er... Ellibereth, you were kidding about not reading, yes?
So... folks...we're just going to sit around waiting for Nacho????
And I'm going to assume by the general silence on the matter that you all agree with Acos concerning the scumz.
If not, could you tell this sorry fellow who the scum are?
If so we can talk about something else...like food and what we're having for dinner. Probably just some pasta here...FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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You've played what, one game with me?RayFrost wrote:I'd like to see nacho's reply before passing judgement there.
Currently, I'm disliking Elli's entrance into the game. So far, there's no content and not really any active scumhunting. This contradicts all previous experience with elli as well as just doesn't fit right with the pro-town activity of scumhunting.
I've made it a habit to not immediately read back and just flow with the current game state when replacing in, but the activity is slow as hell right now.
If I'm forced I'll read the first 3 pages tomorrow.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Oh, the newbie game where I game in at Lylo? I think that was my first complete game on site or something.RayFrost wrote:
Three games if you include one where I replaced out before you replaced in (considering I read your posts, I consider that valid).Ellibereth wrote:You've played what, one game with me?
I've made it a habit to not immediately read back and just flow with the current game state when replacing in, but the activity is slow as hell right now.
If I'm forced I'll read the first 3 pages tomorrow.
I only remember Pyp, are you counting the one where we all got uber-pumped roles in a mininormal?FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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I'm doing my new thing: PREMATURE VOTECOUNT ANALYSIS. Unfortunately I got no time for a PoE chart since I didn't read enough of the game yet. Yellow = town read, not confirmed, and the last lawls lynch votecount was made by me.
Votecount
Panacea- 3 (BridgesAndBaloons,Lawls, Edprata)
Lawls- 1 (Elementary Fermion)
havingfitz - 1 (Acosmist)
Independent John - 1 (Panacea)
Elementary Fermion - 1 (Independent John)
Cojin- 1 (havingfitz)
Not Voting - 1 (Cojin)
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
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Votecount
Cojin- 4 (RayFrost, havingfitz,Lawls, Nachomamma8)
Lawls- 2 (Cojin,Acosmist
Panacea- 1 (ElementaryFermion)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (BridgesAndBaloons)
Not Voting - 1 (Panacea)
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
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Votecount
Cojin- 3 (RayFrost, havingfitz,Lawls)
Lawls- 5 (Cojin,Acosmist,ElementaryFermion, Nachomamma8,Panacea)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (BridgesAndBaloons)
Not Voting - 1 ()
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
higherthanavg chance of scum in Edprata
(1-2) scum in Ray, fitz, Nacho
(1-2) in Fermion, NachoFLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Giant QFT, see my colorful VC's on the previous page. There were also def scum on Cojin wagon.fitz wrote: Definitely think one or both scum are on the last ditch move to the Lawl wagon.
as for Bridges, he also flaked in his other newbie game wherever else. Basically it was a site-wide flake.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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There's always scum on the wagon, especially one so close to going over the precipice.
Did you see the VC's I put on the last page? I don't know who yet because I've only read something like 2 pages of this right now, but there's at least one scum in You, Ray, and Nacho, and at least one btw. Fermion and Nacho.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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You get that my notation means "There is 1 or 2 scum in Ray and Nacho".
Nacho was also on the Cojin wagon, no? And Ray's not def scum yet.
Nacho = scum yet because Ray, Fermion is still possible.
I have it all colorfied on the last post last page.
Code: Select all
Total posts per player slot as of 432. Nacho:33 Fermion:37 Ray: 48 Elli: 50 Acos: 56 Fitz: 61 Pan: 67
FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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I mean when the Cojin wagon was at it's peak! Second votecount on the last post of the last page.
I'm doing the Adel thing with all the objective information, expect more. (Pan's number should be a 69). Furthermore, with the hypothesis that scum are likely to post less than town, the review of the postotals and my vote analasys have a big huge venn diagram overlap.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Below is based off number of times word appears in a person's ISO. This means that when they're quoting and all that, etc. etc.
Their might be error in a few but nothing big.
Unvotefor now.
Fermion Ray is looking more like a real possibility looking at the abnormally low interaction level.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Code: Select all
Average times FERMION mentions a person: 30.125 FERMION max: Pan/Acos/Cojin: 45 FERMION min (-Elli due to Bridgeflake): Nacho, Ray: 18 FERMION max/min: 2.5 Average times NACHO mentions a person: 21.875 NACHO max: Acos: 34 NACHO min(-Elli due to Bridgeflake): Fitz 9 NACHO: max/min 3.78 Average times RAY mentions a person: 14.75 RAY max: Lawls: 25 RAY min(-Elli due to Bridgeflake): Fermion: 6 RAY max/min: 4.17
Okay, then look at the above. Taking averages and min/max into account. The Fermion-Ray relation is abnormally low.
I have a town read on you, but I have to check on the relation between you and Nacho just in case too.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Also, you NEED the information (Votecounts, Post Counts, Interaction Counts), to do the analysis (getting who's scum from them).
Fermion: On a non concrete level because I'm not in the mood to look for and do the numbers right now (someone may have in MD already, and if you want to do it, go take the 10 last completed Newbie games or so, record everyone's post counts and see that scum are almost always in the bottom part of the spectrum, there are of course exceptions), Town have much greater incentive than Scum to post often.
I don't want to claim it's a fact until I dig up something concrete, so it's a hypothesis for now.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Scum are very likely 2 out of {Nacho, Fermion, Ray}.Acosmist wrote:Correlation between these numbers and alignment, go.
The interaction raises the chance of {Fermion, Ray} due to the lowness of it, especially since I recall Ray had specifically done the low-contact thing in a game which he played with Yos2 as scum (too lazy to look for it now).
I'll be moving away from concrete information to look into their direct player interactions shortly.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Yeah, people play differently. But objective facts are objective facts. The numbers I posted are all objective facts. We can also say things in a more general manner i.e. Most people do A and Most people do B. There are people that are exceptions to each general thing, but these people are usually quite consistent in which particular normalcy of following their abnormality. There are people that activly engage to make diffeerent ine very game, but I assure you they are few and there are none in this game.
Meta is not worthless, it was probably the manner in which it was used that went wrong. Also, how are you willing to call something worthless after foreseeing one failed attempt at use (regardless of how well it was done).
I'm in no mood to type out my methodology in detail but trust that it was sufficiently controlled so that the error wouldn't be too large. If you want to cross-check my work for error please do, I would appreciate it.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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I'm on an Ubuntu, and for the most part I used the source code with some exceptions. Possible error include mod vote counts (which is why I like them posted seperately...along with ease of iso and wagon analasys), anyway, the percent error would be negilible the general picture of the numbers is what is important.Nachomamma8 wrote:@Elli: Out of curiosity, how are you calculating all of this? Ctrl+F & Windows Calculator?
I was wrong... Was there anything else you were expecting to hear there?Panacea wrote: Nacho, how does Cojin's flip reconcile with this judgment of yours Yesterday?:
Votecount
Nachomamma8 - 1 (havingfitz)
Not Voting - 6 (Acosmist, RayFrost, Elementary Fermion, Nachomamma8, Panacea, Ellibereth)
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Then you don't have to trust it. That's your problem. It's looking like it's going to incriminate you anyway so I'm not surprised you're trying to look for faults.Elementary Fermion wrote:
I am sure you do so trust. I, however, am in no mood to double check your numbers as a substitute for your explination of your methodology. That's not how the world works.Ellibereth wrote:I'm in no mood to type out my methodology in detail but trust that it was sufficiently controlled so that the error wouldn't be too large. If you want to cross-check my work for error please do, I would appreciate it.
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I also missed an important VC. Town read will be switchng from yellow to Olive for readability.
Votecount
Lawls- 4 (Elementary Fermion,Cojin,Acosmist,havingfitz)
Acosmist- 1 (Lawls)
Cojin - 1 (RayFrost)
Not Voting - 2 (Panacea, Nachomamma8)
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
Vote: FermionFLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Pretty Damn High.Acosmist wrote:
Well, Numbers, what's the strength of correlation between mentioning each other rarely and scummitude? 1? .5? Whip out Excel and tell me, since that seems to be your thing.Ellibereth wrote:
Scum are very likely 2 out of {Nacho, Fermion, Ray}.Acosmist wrote:Correlation between these numbers and alignment, go.
The interaction raises the chance of {Fermion, Ray} due to the lowness of it, especially since I recall Ray had specifically done the low-contact thing in a game which he played with Yos2 as scum (too lazy to look for it now).
I'll be moving away from concrete information to look into their direct player interactions shortly.
Anyway, Wagon Analysis has netted Fermion. Wagon gogogo.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Hm? The numbers I posted are all facts. The Votecounts I posted are facts. That's the purest level of the information that can't be argued.Acosmist wrote:
"Pretty damn high" it not the same as, say, ".4192".Ellibereth wrote:
Pretty Damn High.Acosmist wrote:
Well, Numbers, what's the strength of correlation between mentioning each other rarely and scummitude? 1? .5? Whip out Excel and tell me, since that seems to be your thing.Ellibereth wrote:
Scum are very likely 2 out of {Nacho, Fermion, Ray}.Acosmist wrote:Correlation between these numbers and alignment, go.
The interaction raises the chance of {Fermion, Ray} due to the lowness of it, especially since I recall Ray had specifically done the low-contact thing in a game which he played with Yos2 as scum (too lazy to look for it now).
I'll be moving away from concrete information to look into their direct player interactions shortly.
Anyway, Wagon Analysis has netted Fermion. Wagon gogogo.
It's also not an objective fact. I thought that's what we were doing here, talkin' 'bout objective facts. Is it possible you weren't? If you are throwing numbers around without regard for their meaning, this is the worst possible set of players to have replaced into.
Then we enter the realm of things thatmaybe argued but statistical analysis can be used to support them. The things here may also have exceptions, so most of them are "in general". For example:
There is almost always scum on a town wagon.
In general, town post more than scum.
In general, and especially amongst newer players, scum partners interact with each other less.
And now using those, we go back and evaluate the numbers and votecounts I gathered.
Not everything can be assigned a number, certain things can. Most of the things I data mined were simple counting. Of course once I move into their evaluation I have to leave concreteness.
I will not be discussing theory further in this topic, people leave that for MD.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Fermon meta:
http://www.vanillatownies.com/viewtopic.php?f=114&t=60
http://www.vanillatownies.com/viewtopic.php?f=114&t=125
http://www.vanillatownies.com/viewtopic.php?f=114&t=103
http://www.vanillatownies.com/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=139
http://www.vanillatownies.com/viewtopic ... &start=480
going through nowFLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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I have to call it a day soon so let me just get a quick thing.
I took a guess at the general "type" of person Fermion is based on his name/posting style, and I figured a sudden attack, especially in the manner I pulled with just giving numbers and not analyzing them (and explaining the numbers will also have to wait for tomorrow unfortunately...) would elicit a hard enough reaction to let me easily read.
He's town.
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Now, the following VC's are going to be super super important
Votecount
Panacea - 3 (BridgesAndBaloons,Lawls, Edprata)
Lawls- 1 (Elementary Fermion)
havingfitz - 1 (Acosmist)
Independent John - 1 (Panacea)
Elementary Fermion- 1 (Independent John)
Cojin- 1 (havingfitz)
Not Voting - 1 (Cojin)
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
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Votecount
Cojin- 4 (RayFrost, havingfitz,Lawls, Nachomamma8)
Lawls- 2 (Cojin,Acosmist
Panacea - 1 (Elementary Fermion)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (BridgesAndBaloons)
Not Voting - 1 (Panacea)
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
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Votecount
Cojin- 3 (RayFrost, havingfitz,Lawls)
Lawls- 5 (Cojin,Acosmist,Elementary Fermion, Nachomamma8, Panacea)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (BridgesAndBaloons)
Not Voting - 1 ()
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
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Votecount
Lawls- 4 (Elementary Fermion,Cojin,Acosmist, havingfitz)
Acosmist- 1 (Lawls)
Cojin- 1 (RayFrost)
Not Voting - 2 (Panacea, Nachomamma8)
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch
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Based solely off these, Nacho would be the best and the most informative lynch. It's late now though, and I'll explain all the stuff (and it won't be too stir shit up so I can get a read...promise!) tomorrow.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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SORRY FITZY< I FORGOT THE OLIVE.
And do you agree with the following (or not):
A) particularly low level of interaction between one known scum player, and one unknown alignment player raises the chance of said scum-pair.
B) Many time, scum post less than town.
I'm not saying I can figure everything out ultra-speed, looking at facts, but noone bothers to gather them and if they do say something we would never know. For times where it's work, go to Adel's wiki page (it was editted though, so go through his edit history and go to the one with his complete games), in several of them, especially the middle, he's absolutely devastating using info like this to catch scum.
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I'm dropping the numbers subject for now, but just keep it in the back of the head or remember this later or something. I'll go check individual vote patterns, then I finally have to buckle down and read the words.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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EBWOP: Oh sorry, I didn't see that you said you agree with the generalizations.
I'll just say my point again, I know they don't always apply, but keeping them there with the data can't be bad.
Votecount
Elementary Fermion - 1 (Elementary Fremion)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (havingfitz)
Not Voting - 5 (Acosmist, RayFrost, Nachomamma8, Panacea, Ellibereth)
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Why is IIOA a scumtell when the information is hard and tedious to datamine?
Easiest way to get a reads on anyone is to push them sick hard. Standard technique. And anyone who has played with me before knows that I prioritize town reads over scumreads.
I have read 2 pages of D1 and everything since I've replaced in. I might read a few more of D1 if I get in the mood. For those who are worried, I'll survive just fine. I read 10 pages or so in a 100 page theme and 5/7 in two 20 page minis I replaced into. Worked out great.
Vote Counts ARE GOSPEL. I am usually willing to lynch someone based on votecounts without reading a single post they've made.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Some of my replacement meta if anyone is interested:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 83#2055483
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 70#2086070
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 81#2150781 (Note most of those quotes are from the first few pages, also note the scumteam at the bottom)
MD post by me: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 41#2193041
And come on...I'm better than Xyl sometimes, I heard he read 0 pages on occasion.
Vote: NachoFLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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The misuse was to get a reaction.Acosmist wrote:Ellibereth: I thought the misuse of data was a tactic to elicit a reaction from EF. Why is that continuing?
PS you owe us a complete statistical work-up on that stuff you posted. Get crackin', boy.
The accuracy of the data still stands and can be used as a supplement in the future. The vote patterns is to make it easier for me to look at the progression of the game through D1.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Ok. CLEAR LOGIC TIME.
A) There was scum on Lawls' lynch.
B) The wagon was composed of: Cojin, Acosmist, Elementary Fermion, Nachomamma8, Panacea.
C) Cojin is town. Acosmist and Fermi are both blatantly town.
D) The decision is between you and Pana. I get a better feel from Pana from the first page and after replacing in.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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A) Exception's are rare enough. If something is greater than 80% I'm happy. ESPECIALLY on a wagon that built up that fast, there is scum. DO NOT try to discredit that fact. You know that VA works.
B) Hi, I no the context, it's why I made the pretty color chart earlier this page.
C) Yes they are.
D) I pegged an entire scumteam with first-page reads in Tech Tree. I've also read Pana's recent posts.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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A) 1 exception out of several hundred. I'm ignoring it.
B) I could care less about context. Fact: Wagon built up in abnormally fast speed and led up to town lynch. That's all I care about.
C) I don't need you to trust my reads. I'M ACCUSING YOU. I mean, shit, I don't know why I'm even talking to you.
D) I disagree. That much is already clear anyway.
Anyway, not wasting my time arguing with scum. The above is worded so you hopefully don't have to reply to it. Acos already said you're scum. I recall fitz did too. I need one more person.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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I totally delayed this and didn't do it yet.
New deal, I'm ISOing one person, first come first serve (with a name). No reply in an hour means Nacho.
Votecount
Nachomamma8 - 2 (havingfitz, Ellibereth)
Elementary Fermion - 1 (Elementary Fremion)
Not Voting - 4 (Acosmist, RayFrost, Nachomamma8, Panacea)
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.FLASH OF GREEN-
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[quote="Pan"]Mathmania to, what, gut feeling in .2 seconds..? I don't like this at all. /quote]
Nonono, gut to Mathmania, back to gut in 4 seconds.
Tis be my meta. Anyone here whos' played with me (namely Nacho...the short little show Furry and I were together in), can confirm that. Or you can check it up yourself in my wiki.
Acostopofpagewall makes me want to rethink my town read on fitzy. Pana 526 looks town.
TOWN
Fermion
Acos
Elli
PROBTOWN
Pana
Furry <- most likely to change.
fitz <- need to recheck
PEOPLE LEFT
Nacho
HEY NACH, CAN YOU LINK ME TO ANY TOWN-READABLE POST YOU MADE THE WHOLE GAME. I SKIMMED YOUR ISO AND CAN'T FIND ANY.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Pan. I posted links earlier and you can check my wiki.
I never read the entire game when replacing. I at most skim a few pages back or so. The only time I came close was when i was with a day-talking mason and I only looked at the last quarter or so and she gave me the rest.
[quote="Pan"]
The Havingfitz/Acosmist debate is going to be invaluable to the game, I can tell. (Well... Okay, to me, anyway.) Carry on, you two. [/quote
^^^ This came from town.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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Thanks!Panacea wrote::
:arrow: Ellibereth: Happy birthday.
. _i_i_i_i_i_i_i_i_i_i_i_
/_________________\
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Um, it...kindalooks like a cake... And I dunno how old you are, so for proportion's sake, happy 11th.
I'm not anwsering this cause I'm not a big fan of showing scum my townread playbook.fitz wrote: How does Pan’s interest in seeing another wallpost exchange between Acosmist and I indicate she is town to you? The exchange is doing no good to town that I can see and is only distracting other town from scumhunting and allowing scum to hide behind it. Admittedly, I’m just as guilty as Acosmist at perpetuating the exchange but I can’t help it. I try to refrain from initiating wallposts but I find it difficult refraining from replying to them.
Fail. What a suprise you're on the lower end of my PoE spectrum then.Nacho wrote:
ISO 0. The greatness ends there.Ellibereth wrote: HEY NACH, CAN YOU LINK ME TO ANY TOWN-READABLE POST YOU MADE THE WHOLE GAME. I SKIMMED YOUR ISO AND CAN'T FIND ANY.
Temporarily revoking town read on Furry to pend further review when he finishes his catch up like a "good" replacement (hahaha)
Acos, could you do me a favor and just bullet point a quick list of why fitz is scum without all the quotes and stuff?FLASH OF GREEN-
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Ellibereth Deus ex Machina
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*deletes spaces*Acosmist wrote:Ellibereth wrote:Acos, could you do me a favor and just bullet point a quick list of why fitz is scum without all the quotes and stuff?
He is on the record wanting to lynch Cojin even if Cojin really was the doctor.
He willfully misinterpreted what Cojin was saying in his attacks.
He is doing the same thing with Elementary Fermion now.
His continuing an argument he thinks only helps scum makes him anti-town by his own standard.
He has spent most of the game trying to stifle discussion.
His next post will take issue with these summaries even though the points are argued fully in my other posts.
Where are those stats you owe me?
Thank you very much! The dog ate the stats up.
Yep yep, Pana is town.
SO THAT MEANS, scum are in NACHO, FITZ, FURRY. YAYZ
NACHO: Earlier you mentioned something about fitz/ray team and a good reason for it and you wanted me to find it. I gave up before I started. Tell me please.FLASH OF GREEN-
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Seeing text/quote walls always make me want to procrastinate.
I already said earlier I narrowed it down to within Nacho, Furry, and fitz, right?
NACHO, I WANT AN EXPLANATION FOR FITZ/FURRY TEAM TODAY, BEFORE ANY LYNCHING.
I really don't believe the above is the scumteam based on the lynchwagon.
So that leaves Nacho fitz and Nacho furry...
Yeah. Nacho is still my favorite lynch. You guys do notice that he has admitted himself he has had a distinct lack of town except for one post, that's not even that townish?
Interest in still lynching someone after Doctor claim is not scummy. There was period where scum would almost always fakeclaim doctor to the point where some people just lynched all doctor claims.
Anyway, this whole thing is rather simple for me. Nacho explain to me where he's getting fitz/furry from, or else Nacho's the best lynch. I'd prefer to tell me before you guys end the day.
To that end, I'm not saying I think fitz is town. On a spectrum from towniest to scummiest It probably be Acos = Fermi, Pana, Furry = Fitz, Nacho. And if he's lynched and flipped town the team's def Nach/Furry.FLASH OF GREEN-
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