Uh...You're familiar with Mercer?
Anyway.
Alright. The most important information we have at this point is found within the nightkills and lynches. I'm going to attempt to use a new theory that I've been developing about analyzing nightkills. Basically, as I see it, there are only a limited number of reasons for night kills:
1) Because that player suspected the mafia
2) Because that player is a good player who would be an endgame threat
3) Because it was thought that the player had a power role
4) Because killing off a particular person would lessen suspicion on the Mafia
5) WIFOM
Of course, this analysis isn't perfect, but it is somewhat useful. I'm going to start from the view that the nightkill is not pure WIFOM, as I don't know anybody that actually does that on purpose. The two nightkills were Ophanim and Dramonic, which eliminates the power role possibility. Therefore, those players suspected the mafia, suspected someone else that the mafia wanted pressure on or were probable endgame threats. I think that Dramonic likely fits more in the endgame threat category, as he's one of the stronger players here. Therefore, let's look at who Ophanim suspected.
Ophanim was rarely present. When he was present, he mostly suspected DiamondCrash. One point of interest is that he did attack MacavityLock and Dizzle, albeit lightly. I don't believe that either of them were attacked that often by that point in the game. Thus, the scum could have thought that Ophanim would likely go after them on D2, but that his comments would likely go unnoticed if they went ahead and killed him off.
Now, let's look at the lynches: DiamondCrash, Chevre and Lukepukeduke. The wagons:
Konowa wrote:Vote Count 1.6
Sidekick (3): MacavityLock, Cyberbob, Dizzle
DiamondCrash (7): StrangerCoug, Chevre, Apayah, dramonic, Sidekick, Ophanim, xvart
Not Voting (2): Netopalis, DiamondCrash
With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is April 16th, 2PM GMT-4.
Prodding:
V/LA: Chevre 4/6-4/10
Amished wrote:Chevre (6): MacavityLock, dramonic, Cyberbob, Netopalis, xvart, Ythan
Chevre has been lynched.
He was a
Town Watcher
Night ends 72 hours from right now. Those of you with night actions should PM both me and Konowa (but make sure that I have a copy first and foremost)
Amished wrote:Lynch vote: lukepukeduke (5): Cyberbob, Ythan, MacavityLock, StrangerCoug, xvart
lukepukeduke, vanilla townie
has been lynched. Submit night actions within the next 72 hours as that's the obvious deadline.
Interestingly enough, MacavityLock has been
off
every lynch of scum, but
on
every lynch of town. In fact, he is the only player with that record.
Also, note this quote:
Dizzle wrote:I know our quick wagon of ML turned out well, but this one feels different to me. luke's ill-advised vote seems more like a noob not sure what to be looking for and I doubt scum would be so willing to wagon another one of their own so early in the game.
I normally don't like going after scumslips, but this one is pretty serious. Our quick wagon of ML? He meant to indicate DiamondCrash. There is no way to make a typo from DC to ML - the keys are on the opposite side of the keyboard. It's true that they are the only two players that are consistently represented by two-letter acronyms...but since both were off of the DC wagon, I think that it's entirely plausible that they are a scumteam.
Now, approaching this from process of elimination:
2) StrangerCoug
3) Ythan Sidekick *
6) Netopalis
9) xvart
10) MacavityLock
11) Dizzle
12) Cyberbob
Obviously, I know that I'm not scum. I also feel that we can believe Ythan's claim.
2) StrangerCoug
9) xvart
10) MacavityLock
11) Dizzle
12) Cyberbob
Xvart and Cyberbob have shown consistently pro-town play throughout the game. Both were among the early attackers on the DC wagon. I think that, at least for today, there's no strong case for lynching them.
2) StrangerCoug
10) MacavityLock
11) Dizzle
I've said that I suspect StrangerCoug several times. For the life of me, I don't know why, really. Since I
do
have a solid reason to suspect Dizzle and MacavityLock, though...I'm going to go ahead and drop him. It's unfair to keep saying that I suspect him when I can't muster up a single shred of evidence against him.
10) MacavityLock
11) Dizzle
I really think that our scumteam is here.
Vote: MacavityLock
My posts are best read in the calm, reassuring voice of Morgan Freeman. I don't sound anything like him, but they sound best that way.
Temporarily retiring following the end of my current obligations.
