Mini 945: Mafia in Bawlmer - GAME OVER

[Ythan]

Looks to me like you took two points out of that wall of text to respond to, the two about you, and used those to discredit the post as a whole.

[MacavityLock]

There are literally 3 points that Neto made in that wall of text, and I have pointed them out and why I had issues with some of them: Oph's attacks, my wagon pattern, and Dizzle's slip. That's it. Find me anything else in that post that I

could

respond to.

[Ythan]

And I don't think the conclusion you drew follows.

[Dizzle]

And....why not?

[Ythan]

That's a poor question. If you hadn't just hopped into the conversation at this specific juncture I think you'd know. You're asking why the points

don't

justify the conclusion?

[Dizzle]

I have been following but I still still think ML's question is valid. Please explain why you think his explanation is off for simple-minded people such as myself.

[Ythan]

I said the conclusion he drew. Follow closer.

[Dizzle]

I said the conclusion he drew. Follow closer.

Smart lad, eh? Why does the conclusion he drew follows?

-Fixed quote tags
-The Amish one

[Dizzle]

So many things wrong with my previous post, I think most can figure it out.

[Ythan]

I'll repeat myself again. It does not follow. That it does not follow requires no explanation. The start and the finish, they are connected. That I see that they do not, that is my evidence. How much explanation do you require for something that isn't there?

[Netopalis]

Alright, let's reword a few points in order to satisfy Captain Wikipedia.

1) Cyberbob and ML were the only players to have never voted for scum and always voted for town. However, Cyberbob's play shows him to be a strong pro-town player, so I discount his scumminess.

2) Ophanim attacked SC and ML, although he only attacked ML obliquely. What do I mean by that? Well, let's look at the only times that Ophanim mentioned ML:

Macavity is backpedaling having realized his attack on Chevre is horrifically weak. Human nature-tell.

I agree, (1) is a very useful question. I read it a general playstyle, while SC obviously didn't. Oph, why did you ask (2) without letting Neto respond to (1) first? If Neto was asking specifically about scum-style, I agree that it's kind of a ridiculous question, potentially one that distracts from main discussion. By pointing that out, haven't you let him off the hook?

No, I just saved us time and 2 posts by giving him the point to argue right then and there. I honestly don't think it's a helpful question in either form. People's self-metas are worthless.

Sidekick and DC.

You missed the "and why" bit.
You missed the "

No, I just saved us time and 2 posts by giving him the point to argue right then and there.

I honestly don't think it's a helpful question in either form.

People's self-metas are worthless.

Then why qualify your second question? The way you asked your second question specifically only applied if Neto was asking about self-scum-meta. Isn't what I italicized different than what you were originally asking about?

People self-metaing themselves is at least interesting and should spark some discussion, as well as give some insight into their thought processes.

Sidekick and DC.

You missed the "and why" bit.
You missed the "

Should be obvious, but sure.
Sidekick - Has done nothing useful or original, brought someone to L-1 with redundant questions.
DC - You don't out a cop.

Is that last sentence a typo?

Yes. I somehow copy/pasted it.

Asking about someone approaches the game as town is, however, extremely useful, as scum generally need to depart from their preferred line of thinking in order to convince someone that a player they know to be innocent is scum.

And you think they'd seriously tell you how they play as town? You're being quite naive there.

Basically, Ophanim had very little positive to say about MacavityLock's play. It's no stretch of the imagination to think that he would turn towards attacking MacavityLock on the next day. Did he attack other people? Sure, but in those posts, you can at least see an undercurrent of distrust.

3) Yes, I was wrong about Xvart and Cyber being on the wagon early. That was a careless mistake. I was working through things quickly. Not important, though. Their play has been so obviously and overwhelmingly pro-town that I'm not really sure why we're having this conversation. If one of you folks wants to put up a case on it, by all means, go ahead.

4) Dizzle and MacavityLock have been suspiciously connected. Dizzle asks ML a lot of open-ended questions that try to appear probing but are really just designed to lead him to safe answers. If you look at MacavityLock in isolation and search for each time he mentions Dizzle, he doesn't even mention him D1. On other days, it's never anything other than to include him in a list or put out a defense on him.

Altogether, it is remarkably obvious that they're the scum, at least in my mind.

[MacavityLock]

1) Cyberbob and ML were the only players to have never voted for scum and always voted for town. However, Cyberbob's play shows him to be a strong pro-town player, so I discount his scumminess.

I'd like to ask here why Cyberbob gets a pass for his play, but I don't. You say he's been a strong pro-town player, but don't say why. Without a flip, how do you know?

I'd also like to bring up xvart. He was on DC's wagon approximately as much as Cyberbob and I were, and he was also on both town lynches. Why does he get a pass?

2) Ophanim attacked SC and ML, although he only attacked ML obliquely. What do I mean by that? Well, let's look at the only times that Ophanim mentioned ML:

...

Basically, Ophanim had very little positive to say about MacavityLock's play. It's no stretch of the imagination to think that he would turn towards attacking MacavityLock on the next day. Did he attack other people? Sure, but in those posts, you can at least see an undercurrent of distrust.

So, that "undercurrent of distrust" is enough of an excuse to vote me? This is so vague and so weak, how can you actually call it a point against me?

3) Yes, I was wrong about Xvart and Cyber being on the wagon early. That was a careless mistake. I was working through things quickly. Not important, though. Their play has been so obviously and overwhelmingly pro-town that I'm not really sure why we're having this conversation. If one of you folks wants to put up a case on it, by all means, go ahead.

Again, how do you know that they're "obviously and overwhelmingly pro-town" without a flip? You're allowed to have that opinion, but the 3 points you've brought up against me are pretty weak, in light of the fact that there's just as bad (re: wagoning) or worse (re: Oph) on others.

Is it that they're pro-town, or that they've just had less heat on them than I have?

4) Dizzle and MacavityLock have been suspiciously connected. Dizzle asks ML a lot of open-ended questions that try to appear probing but are really just designed to lead him to safe answers. If you look at MacavityLock in isolation and search for each time he mentions Dizzle, he doesn't even mention him D1. On other days, it's never anything other than to include him in a list or put out a defense on him.

Oooh, connections. Tell me how I'm connected to flipped scum DC, and that's allowed. On Day 1, that's allowed. On Day 4, you've got to do better than this.

I'll repeat myself again. It does not follow. That it does not follow requires no explanation. The start and the finish, they are connected. That I see that they do not, that is my evidence. How much explanation do you require for something that isn't there?

Yet again you state something and refuse to explain. So I'll repeat myself again, Neto was just plain wrong in half his points, all things that are not hard to miss: Oph was very clearly active. Oph very clearly had more attacking interactions with people other than me. The vote patterns are right there in front of him. The fact that he did miss all of these things strongly suggests that he came to the conclusion of who was scum before going out and looking for evidence of it.

[Dizzle]

I'll repeat myself again. It does not follow. That it does not follow requires no explanation. The start and the finish, they are connected. That I see that they do not, that is my evidence. How much explanation do you require for something that isn't there?

I guess the problem is that I think ML's conclusion definitely follows. Just look at all the points that Neto has been 100% wrong about yet he continues to maintain that ML and I are obviously a scumteam.

For example:

4) Dizzle and MacavityLock have been suspiciously connected. Dizzle asks ML a lot of open-ended questions that try to appear probing but are really just designed to lead him to safe answers. If you look at MacavityLock in isolation and search for each time he mentions Dizzle, he doesn't even mention him D1. On other days, it's never anything other than to include him in a list or put out a defense on him.

A lot of open-ended questions? I found just 1...if Neto found a lot I'd like them pointed out to me. And as far as ML mentioning me, Neto is yet again plainly wrong. ML questioned why I wasn't being suspected for a similar stance on DC and he also refuted my suspicion of xvart.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm still fond of my xvart vote, but I'm starting to have a nagging suspicion of Netopalis as well. We're going to be about equally successful in convincing the rest of us that the other is scum, though, so I'm not going to make him my main line of pursuit either.

[Ythan]

Hey guess what I said I disagree and you stretched your complaints out to like a page.

[StrangerCoug]

I don't think you meant to direct post #514 at me, Ythan, yet it's ten minutes after mine... Ridiculously slow Internet too?

[Ythan]

Not you.

[Cyberbob]

Nothing in the last however many posts has changed my mind about Netopalis. I think he is trying to buddy up to me and apply pressure to ML (a player with whom I have previously butted heads) in the hopes that I will suddenly "like" him and jump onto ML.

[xvart]

Also, for a Dizzle lynch to win right now, there can't be an SK and he has to be the one that tried to kill me. Whether he was the attempted killer last night is irrelevant right now, but I have serious doubts about 10:2. Assuming that all the power roles in the game are the ones we know about, two goons vs. a watcher, a jailkeeper, and eight vanillas is horrendously imbalanced toward town.

I also can't think of how a Dizzle lynch will help Ythan out.

The only reason I suggested the Dizzle lynch securing the win immediately was because there was some discussion about a two man mafia team. I'm guessing with a three person team there are two goons and a roleblocker (based on the PRs seen).

My point was we kill Dizzlescum and then that leaves only one scum to conduct the NK. I've never played JK but I would think that if I were I would JK the same person as the previous night and see if there was another no kill night. I brought up WIFOM because of course this wouldn't prove beyond a doubt that SC was the remaining scum since scum could just no kill and cast suspicion on SC.

...but xvart was calling DC failtown until he switched his vote near the end.

How long are you going to keep harping on this? If you keep repeating it do you think it more people will think it is a valid case?

Neto - if you believe you have identified the two remaining scum, why do you want to lynch ML first? Why not Dizzle?

xvart.

[xvart]

EBWOP: Forgot to paste this into my other post:

Only scum "quick wagon" to my knowledge. And as you noted, you were not a part of it.

Even if it were true that only scum quick wagon, how is this even a point against me? By your logic, if I were scum, wouldn't I likely have joined 1 of those quick wagons?

Point taken and withdrawn. I must be mixing something up... Ythan, why did you think it was a slip to refer to it as a quickwagon?

xvart.

-Fixed URL tags
-The Amish one

[Netopalis]

Because I feel that there's a much stronger case against MacavityLock. If you'll notice, my analysis focused largely on MacavityLock. I think it's likely that they're a scumteam, but I simply don't have as much evidence on Dizzle.

[Dizzle]

...but xvart was calling DC failtown until he switched his vote near the end.

How long are you going to keep harping on this? If you keep repeating it do you think it more people will think it is a valid case?

Yes, I still think it's a valid point but that's not why I mentioned it. Neto falsely claimed that you were an early attacker of DC so I felt it necessary to point out his error and make sure he knew the truth.

[Amished]

Votecount 4.2?

Dizzle (1): xvart
xvart (1): StrangerCoug
Netopalis (1): Cyberbob
MacavityLock (1): Netopalis

Not voting (3): Ythan, MacavityLock, Dizzle

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 4 is May 19th.

[StrangerCoug]

Also, for a Dizzle lynch to win right now, there can't be an SK and he has to be the one that tried to kill me. Whether he was the attempted killer last night is irrelevant right now, but I have serious doubts about 10:2. Assuming that all the power roles in the game are the ones we know about, two goons vs. a watcher, a jailkeeper, and eight vanillas is horrendously imbalanced toward town.

I also can't think of how a Dizzle lynch will help Ythan out.

The only reason I suggested the Dizzle lynch securing the win immediately was because there was some discussion about a two man mafia team. I'm guessing with a three person team there are two goons and a roleblocker (based on the PRs seen).

My point was we kill Dizzlescum and then that leaves only one scum to conduct the NK. I've never played JK but I would think that if I were I would JK the same person as the previous night and see if there was another no kill night. I brought up WIFOM because of course this wouldn't prove beyond a doubt that SC was the remaining scum since scum could just no kill and cast suspicion on SC.

There are more ways than that for things to go wrong for town.

• Dizzle could get lynched and flip town. Ythan would have to jailkeep correctly to avoid LYLO.
  
• I could be a Mafia roleblocker. If the mod decides that crossblocks cancel, I can both block and kill him and generate a false negative.
  
• I could be bulletproof. Ythan's jailkeeping me is then only relevant if I am scum.

I know what I am, but I want you to be aware of how bad your plan is in practice.

[StrangerCoug]

Seriously? Nothing in almost 24 hours?

Mod: Please prod everybody.