Open 212--Hard Boiled Mafia (Game Over)

[chauchaudotcom]

MMM, are you ignoring me on purpose? Please answer:

That being said, care to actually answer the question I asked?

11 in, I'm feeling good about MMM town and CC scum. I think MMM is responding very well to pressure. Meanwhile, look at CC's posting patterns. For the first 8 or so pages, she's fairly generic and perhaps even a bit lurky. Then people start mentioning town reads on her. Suddenly, her posting rate jumps, and her posts get phenomenally inoffensive:

Care to point out my sudden 'post rate jump'? I have consistently, since the beginning, posted at least once per day (sometimes once every few days). I'm not quite sure where you got the impression that my activity rose exponentially out of no where.

her case on MMM suddenly gets super generic, and instead of doling out her own commentary she spends her time questioning other people. This, to me, is the sign of a scum who feels they're in a good position and doesn't want to jeopardize it.

I have been consistently questioning people from the very beginning throughout this game. As I have said numerous times before: it is my play style. I am still lost as to why this is a scum tell. Simply because I am pursuing a suspect does not mean I should blindly ignore all my surroundings. I do not favor tunnel play. And contrary to what you claim I did comment on things. Even in cases where I didn't explicitly say stuff, I felt I made my views pretty clear through my questions. What did you feel I didn't comment on and should have?

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

The possibility that the two of you were distancing had crossed my mind, but both of you looked relatively town at the time. But with Confucius confirmed town, and Pittbunny and evilsnail dead, it grew a lot more likely for you to be scum. The fact that semioldguy was scum is forcing me to re-evaluate my position.

[havingfitz]

@havingfitz: If it comes down to it, is there anyone else you have a good enough scum read on that you'd also be willing to vote?

Personally, the more I think about it, the more I feel comfortable with MMM town.

Not today. MMM is it for me.

Whose next? Confucius is town...I believe farside is town...that leaves me with chau and pie is good as the last scum (IMO). I have suspected them for similar reasons (end of D1 votes) but focused more on Chau since hers was the hammer. Upon further reflection...RayFrost's completely unexplained vote on Nick on D1 was equally, if not more suspect. Coupled with my belief there were at least 2 scum on evil's bandwagon...that leaves me with pie is good as suspect number two (I'd say it's 70-30 pie over chau).

That's my take on things.

[farside22]

Clarification: writing off havingfitz as town will probably prove suicidal whether MMM is scum or town. It's just that willingness to suicide in the name of scumhunting is a very protown thing.

Chau did the same thing before him and did it reading deer/pitt and coming to that conclusion. What is the difference between them in this case?

MMM: Are you going to respond to the fact that you never stated that you "voice suspicioun of bussing" when you never stated that before and then attack myself for showing a quote that never said that before?

[Pie_is_good]

Actually, on second thought:

I strongly doubt havingfitz/MMM are scumbuddies. I doubt chauchau/farside are scumbuddies. From my perspective, that means remaining scum is (one of havingfitz, MMM) + (one of chauchau, farside), and I've already expressed my belief in MMMtown, so I might have to relabel havingfitz my #1 suspect based on that.

I'll get together my evidence for chauchau/farside not being paired shortly.

[Pie_is_good]

@farside: the difference between the two cases (if I'm understanding you properly) is that MMM didn't call Chau "probably town" because of chau's tunneling on MMM (plus, Chau was not tunneling on MMM nearly as hard as havingfitz is now).

[Jeffcole1]

Vote Count 3.2:

Mysterious Mystery Man (1): havingfitz

Not Voting (5): chauchaudotcom, Confucius, farside22, Mysterious Mystery Man, Pie_is_good

[Pie_is_good]

Well, reading back over, I'm not really sure why I felt so strongly about CC/farside separated. I think it was something like, they carried a bit of bickering over across a night phase, and I thought scumbuddies would have taken the opportunity to drop it. But then, posts like this ...

[about chauchau] hypocritical coming from her since her vote was still on Ray which was an RVS vote and she hasn't stated any views on who was scum yet.
Finall post subject 8 I get some meat of a case here I agree that if a player finds people suspicious on a wagon they should be questioning or pushing those players with questions.
I do feel that with all the questions she asked she is a bit touchy when I asked a question here
This is a really well thought out point on the number of time MMM attacked those (or OMGUS) those voting him here
I really hate the bw vote at the end just so their is a lynch. It always gives me scum vibes.

There are some really good points and then some things I find from chau that I don't like. The vote on nick, the hypocrisy comment. But when she see's something scummy she aggressive questions and prods the person.
I think I would like to see a scum list from her with reasoning. Right now I'm in the middle leaning town.

... show all the classic signs of hot scum-on-scum action. "X Y Z is scummy, but then again maybe maybe not, so my read is neutral leaning town." Like, I'm almost hesitant to bring it up because it's so textbook, and I feel like farside is an experienced enough player to not fall into that as scum.

Right?

Man, I'm thinking myself in circles now.

[havingfitz]

Pie...I’m not sure I know where you stand at the moment. Am I your #1 suspect? If so...why?
Whoever your #2 is (chau?)....could you explain why?

And last....can you please explain how you have come to the conclusion MMM is town? If my exchange with him to end D1 and begin D2 does not open people’s eyes (ie town) to how he has misrepresented his facts (aka lied) and doesn't raise/confirm suspicions of him then I am truly at a loss.

I can see how scum would find him town...but experienced scum would never get that buddy buddy with the top suspect on most of the remaining player’s lists. Right?

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

@ Pie_is_Good: You've said you find me town, but havingfitz scum. What do you think of my logic finding havingfitz town? It makes no sense for scum to attack me today if I am town.

[havingfitz]

EBWOP:

If my exchange with him to end D1 and begin D2

Should have read "If my exchange with him to end D2 and begin D3..."

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

Hm...

I found something else concerning farside22 and CC.com that's quite interesting.

We all know SOG and CC.com were arguing D2. Reading the three players in ISO, I found a pattern.

chauchaudotcom - Reading in iso the first 6 post are lots of questions towards players but I dont' see any scum hunting thus far... hypocritical coming from her since her vote was still on Ray which was an RVS vote and she hasn't stated any views on who was scum yet.

That's just how I play. In any case, if you note at that time I was in the process of pursuing my suspects. The post right before I was questioning Mindgamer on the actions that I felt were suspicious and in the next post I voted him. If that's not making my view on who was scum clear, I'm not sure what is. Plus, by simply reading my questions for people and how I follow them up, it's pretty easy to figure out who I am suspicious of and why.

And in his next post:

@chauchaudotcom
evilsnail is my leading suspect currently, but I'd really like to see some more posts from him first. Mysterious Mystery Man is slightly suspicious to me, but not for many of the reasons others have put forward as mentioned, and I am looking at you as my third suspect mostly for reasons brought up against you.

And from then on, SOG starts fighting with CC.com.

The fact that you have been asking questions and not following it up with much pointed out by farside22

He admits it was farside22 that started his attack on CC.com.

I'm curious as to why I am more suspect versus farside whos posts I've found to be full... of a lot of stuff I find rather distracting/unecessary.

Starts to criticize farside22.

I don't completely agree with your assessment of farside22. A lot is unnecessary, but that comes with tunneling which isn't specifically scummy, and I don't see her posts as being distracting. Posting things about everyone but not following up is not the same as asking questions and not following up. I don't see you two as doing that in the same way.

Defending her.

Semioldguy - He attacked ythan pretty hard core and McGriddle but doesn't seem to have any imput for the start of the day. I can't say he's been really scum hunting. The biggest case he had was on ythan and question McG.
So far feels under the radar. Needs to start posting more content. Right now null read.

Defending him by bringing up points against him, but dismissing them.

Ah...you misunderstood me. To clarify, I never regarded farside as scummy. I merely pointed out that her posts have a lot of unnecessary stuff in it which distracts me from getting a good read on her because reading through her posts become an exceedingly tedious task. Which may also serves for being a scum shield.

Declares farside22 town. Afterwards, most of SOG's posts are regarding Confucius, although he votes CC.com near the end of the day.

I see a definite pattern here, SOG started attacking CC.com when farside22 gave him the go ahead, and much of their arguments concerned farside22. There is clear defending and buddying between them.

[Confucius]

Still here, still thinking. I expect to post some questions in the next couple of days.

Question....if you are targeted by scum tonight (which I assume you would be)...does your kill go through regardless? When MMMscum is lynched and only one scum remains....whose night action would have precedence? Or would they both go through?

Both actions go through.

[Pie_is_good]

Pie...I’m not sure I know where you stand at the moment. Am I your #1 suspect? If so...why?
Whoever your #2 is (chau?)....could you explain why?

No, I'm going to say Chau is my #1 suspect. I'm waffling between you and farside as my #2.

And last....can you please explain how you have come to the conclusion MMM is town? If my exchange with him to end D1 and begin D2 does not open people’s eyes (ie town) to how he has misrepresented his facts (aka lied) and doesn't raise/confirm suspicions of him then I am truly at a loss.

Actually, your exchange is the precise reason I find MMM town. The cardinal rule of scumhunting is that townies post with less caution than scumbags. MMM's "misrepresentations" read to me more like the result of carelessness than actual malicious behavior.

In short, lynch-all-liars only applies to hard and fast lies, such as roleclaims or night results. When it comes to general doubling back on your argument, as MMM is accused of doing, it's not scummy, and is maybe even a bit town-y.

@ Pie_is_Good: You've said you find me town, but havingfitz scum. What do you think of my logic finding havingfitz town? It makes no sense for scum to attack me today if I am town.

What? Why does it make no sense for scum to attack you if you're town? I would think scum would be all over you.

MMM - as for your stuff on farside/chau/SOG, do you really think the three scum would have a three-way interaction that blatant?

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

@ Pie_is_good: It's clear Confucius finds me very scummy, and he's obviously not going to change his mind. So, I'd say it's a given I'm going to be vigged tonight. Therefore, if I am town, it would make no sense for me to be lynched today. If I am lynched, Confucius still has a chance to hit scum and prolong the game. If havingfitz was scum, he'd try to lynch another townie, and win when I'm killed. I know I'm town, so I know havingfitz is town. As for my earlier analysis, well, we have one confirmed scum, so the logical thing to do is to check their interactions with other players. I see a connection with farside22. She is currently my number one suspect.

[Pie_is_good]

@ Pie_is_good: It's clear Confucius finds me very scummy, and he's obviously not going to change his mind. So, I'd say it's a given I'm going to be vigged tonight. Therefore, if I am town, it would make no sense for me to be lynched today.

I see where you're coming from now, but "would make no sense for me to be lynched today" does not follow from Confucius's suspicion of you. It's entirely possible that the best move is to lynch you and let Confucius pick the second death with the added knowledge of your alignment (especially if, for example, we interpret an MMM townflip as a mark against havingfitz and vice versa).

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

@ Pie_is_good: That doesn't make sense. You are suggesting giving control of the game to Confucius? Lynching me is a waste of a lynch, as I am dead anyway. Are you saying that even though you think I'm town, you would lynch me for information? Also, as I just showed, if I flip town, havingfitz is in the clear.

[Pie_is_good]

@ Pie_is_good: That doesn't make sense. You are suggesting giving control of the game to Confucius?

Door A: We lynch someone else. Confucius vigges you.
Door B: We lynch you. Confucius vigges someone else.

The question, then, is whether or not the town as a whole will be more accurate than Confucius (confirmed town) with the benefit of knowing your alignment.

It's a bit of a false paradigm, because I don't hear Confucius saying his mind can't be changed, so there may be a door C in which you don't die at all. Because I personally believe you to be town, I will push for door C. But if I'm wrong (and Confucius can let me know if this is the case) and Confucius will for sure vig you if you survive the day, I would be willing to lynch you, yes. In that case, lynching you would give the town a better-informed final shot at survival.

Does that make sense?

Also, as I just showed, if I flip town, havingfitz is in the clear.

Again, I disagree with this. There are many reasons HFscum might want to attack you - he thinks Confucius is on the wrong track and will probably misshoot if given the opportunity, he thinks if he spends the day tunneling on you he won't have to risk offering other opinions, etc.

[Confucius]

Against my better judgment, I will say this:

I will kill whoever I think is most likely to be scum. Who I think it most likely to be scum inevitably changes with every flip we have. Only the wisest and stupidest of men never change.

It was extraordinarily tempting to Vig Mysterious Mystery Man last night because there is both a fair chance of him being scum, and I harbor great disapproval for both his playing style and for his attitude towards me in particular on Day Two. But in the end, I thought semioldguy was more likely to be scum, so it was semioldguy that I shot.

I will also say this: there has not been a single player other than ksun (replaced by McGriddle) who I actually thought was legitimately town while reading this game. This game merely has varying levels of scumminess, which has made it very difficult to sift through the players. So in that sense, there are currently no players that I am unwilling to shoot in the face.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

Vote: Pie_is_good

You're scum with farside22.

Allow me to post the full quote I used in my earlier post:

The fact that you have been asking questions and not following it up with much pointed out by farside22

and hitogoroshi.

When did semioldguy make a serious vote D1? When Ythan began attacking RayFrost, his scumbuddy. Who found both farside22 and semioldguy town? Hitogoroshi, in his summaries. Who declared me town when I said it was in scum's best interest to do so? Pie_is_good, who later admitted to wanting me lynched when I started finding fault with farside22.

[farside22]

All of day 1 Semi pretty much ignores MMM.
Then we get to day 2

The "scare tactic" and jumping to conclusions in that post are not things I think are particularly scummy. However it did alert me to something else that potentially could be scummy; post 105 gives off the impression that Mysterious Mystery Man knows that the other person, Bio Hazard, isn't scum by omitting him in his exception. (as in his example would also be good for town if Bio Hazard was scum, which Mysterious Mystery Man doesn't consider)

This is the same point being mentioned during day 1
Mind you he doesn't vote at this point on MMM either

Note MMM and hito missing from this

My top two suspects are not your top two suspects. chauchaudotcom and evilsnail would currently make up my top two suspects. I don't think you are attacking scum. And again, are you going to use me not attacking evilsnail as a point against me but not against yourself? How am I supposed to attack him at any length when he obviously is not here to respond?

I like reading semi in iso he does light attacks on MMM throughout day 2 but then turns onto chau. There was a whole discussion about 105 which I brought up day 1 he ignored and this leads me to see a connection between MMM/Semiold

Next up will read hito/chau in iso.

[farside22]

Pie_is_good/ hitogoroshi/ RayFrost

Yeah, I think we're about out of RVS now. As I said, my current suspicions are on Bio Hazard, maybe RayFrost.

OMGUS?

technically I can see more frustration reasoning with Ray. So far he's voting you for it seems reaction

Ythan are you making a point?

I sincerely believe that MMM is scum.

Him acting placatingly to me while also saying I'm suspicious is scummy.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 23#2172323

Note reading Ray in inso: There was no real iteraction between semi and Ray.

semioldguy

I like semi's posts pretty well. That being said, in the semi v Confucius 'debate', I'm more on Confucius's side, in that without meta evidence suggesting otherwise I would see MMM's brand of attacking your attacker as more scum motivated. Of course, he dropped that case because of MMM's town meta, and it was semi that suggested he look at that, so that's a point for semi for sure. Still, barring that point, nothing particularly suspect as of now.

The only reason Semi is town is because of the meta argument and dropping it. What else could he do at that point being forced with evidence?
This doesn't really say much else.

Next will me Chau then MMM tomorrow.

[Pie_is_good]

The fact that you have been asking questions and not following it up with much pointed out by farside22

and hitogoroshi.

Are you trying to sell the town on the idea that SOG decided to openly fall in line with

both

his accomplices as a technique to make them look

better

?

When did semioldguy make a serious vote D1? When Ythan began attacking RayFrost, his scumbuddy.

Even if Ythan successfully diverts SOG's attention, according to you Ythan is still attacking exactly one scum. How would this be helpful to scum?

Who found both farside22 and semioldguy town? Hitogoroshi, in his summaries.

This (as well as several other of your points) relies on you living in a magical world where scum have not yet invented the concept of "bussing" and are required by law to find their partners innocent.

Who declared me town when I said it was in scum's best interest to do so? Pie_is_good, who later admitted to wanting me lynched when I started finding fault with farside22.

This ignores 4 things:
-I have

also

gone on record as finding fault with farside
-Your logic for why scum should find you town is horribly stupid
-I have an entire unaddressed post explaining why it could be in the town's best interest to lynch you regardless of how they feel about your alignment
-Due to Confucius's post just before yours, I don't actually want you lynched.

[Jeffcole1]

Vote Count 3.3:

Mysterious Mystery Man (1): havingfitz
Pie_is_good (1): Mysterious Mystery Man

Not Voting (4): chauchaudotcom, Confucius, farside22, Pie_is_good

[chauchaudotcom]

The fact that semioldguy was scum is forcing me to re-evaluate my position.

Then why did you claim that you initial called this so claimed bussing d2, prior to the flips and information reveal?

I see a definite pattern here, SOG started attacking CC.com when farside22 gave him the go ahead, and much of their arguments concerned farside22. There is clear defending and buddying between them.

If anything, it was merely proof that Semi jumped at the easy opportunity of pushing a bogus case on me.

In terms of the apparent 'giving the go', the problem I have with this hypothesis is that you have to remember that scum can talk at night. I'm pretty sure if they were going to buss each other they would have discussed it at night rather then risk others catching them during the day. Assuming, of course, the scum aren't stupid.

@ Pie_is_good: It's clear Confucius finds me very scummy, and he's obviously not going to change his mind. So, I'd say it's a given I'm going to be vigged tonight. Therefore, if I am town, it would make no sense for me to be lynched today. If I am lynched, Confucius still has a chance to hit scum and prolong the game. If havingfitz was scum, he'd try to lynch another townie, and win when I'm killed. I know I'm town, so I know havingfitz is town. As for my earlier analysis, well, we have one confirmed scum, so the logical thing to do is to check their interactions with other players. I see a connection with farside22. She is currently my number one suspect.

Wait. By that logic wouldn't everyone trying to get you lynched today be essentially town?

-Due to Confucius's post just before yours, I don't actually want you lynched.

Reason?

I can see how scum would find him town...but experienced scum would never get that buddy buddy with the top suspect on most of the remaining player’s lists. Right?

Not necessarily. If that actually is actually town experienced scum could use that as a way to build up credibility and stay out of the heat the next day after the suspect flips innocent.

Which.....then makes me realize that a MMM + Pie team is probably unlikely.

So (shamelessly stealing pie's way of outlining) I have...

(MMM, Pie) + (far, fitz)

I haven't done much of the other pairing analysis (only did a semi + other) so I need to back and do that.

----

Also, I might still be able to post but just in case,

V/LA until Saturday

.