Karma Mafia (Game Over!)

[Amished]

Hmm, I've had bad town days before; I could see it. Course, the only time I missed a votecount I was scum (ABR replaced me that game...)

I'm torn, still makes him less juicy than other targets if I'm that conflicted IMO.

Mostly I'm just happy that your analysis of other people is lining up with what I've kinda been saying for most of the game (or at least thought I said... >_>)

[Faraday]

Don't forget the potential of Pom possibly dying via hiding with scum under your wcs Amished, I think that rules out 6 scum beyond any doubt (although I'd have thought that anyway, just by general game balance sense)

[curiouskarmadog]

Amished, if I have missed it please quote,

with a 2nd kill night 2...your thoughts on a 3rd party..

---
I reveiwed Sera is iso compared to with what was going on at the time...He seemed to be geniune with his questions and was indeed riding him. However, with his attacks, Serascum, didnt really leave himself room to drop off the attack or flip to richard.

if Sera had been as awesome as he was Day 1 all game I would say yeah..he is obviously town...but he hasnt. Today has been lacking indeed.

that being said, I put him in the neutral catagory....

which at the moment leaves me lacking in the who do I think is scum at the moment.

the only thing that has rubbed me wrong about dybeck was his comment at the beginning of today...will read him in iso...also going to review OJ.

[Amished]

@ckd: ABR's theory that PZ's probable weak mode kill delayed it by a night. That would explain why there hasn't been another night with two NK's as PZ was killed on N1. My balance "equation" would be from a mod perspective since you can't count on the vig dying N1 and only getting one kill.

Faraday's comment about weak-mode hider being a worst case hide behind scum death would put D4 (worst case 5 player scum team) in solid lylo instead of mylo (still granting 3 mislynches) makes tons of sense too. (Jailkeeper has a chance to save/block a kill too, so that could counteract the weak-mode hider playing "bad"; still puts a mylo on D4 under worst case, but doesn't really support a 6 player scumteam.

Everything does point to a 5 person scumteam (no third party) from what's flipped and happened so far in my eyes.

For me, having part of my townish-leans based on farside being confirmed town (Pom weak-mode hider hid behind farside N1; Pom would've died had she hid behind scum) and being able to trust her reads completely which helps a lot (and something that I had forgotten about until recently).

So, for the whole list (since nobody really listens to me anyways, excluding myself for obvious reasons)

2) farside22 - confirmed town

3) Jahudo - faded into the background on me, nothing scummy has stuck out, but nothing protown either.

4) boberz (replacing Snow_Bunny) weird read to me; the "praise" (my word) of Javert questioning me and then placating me with the responses *feels* like scum. Can't think of anything really pro-town here either.

5) dybeck - top scum candidate for a while; has done absolutely nothing pro-town (case coming)

6) Seraphim - tentative town, I flip flop on him, and I think I know why. Bussing evidence from farside has me flipping towards town read.

12) Espeonage - wagon analysis from OJ suggests town. Hasn't done much beyond that though; could see easy target trying to be mislynched or bad scum. Personal read is scummy/lazy; wagon "says" town. Jury out, needs reread. Just from hard evidence at hand I'll say town for a stance.

14) NickF227 - Newbtown

15) Javert (replacing Bio Hazard) - stronger town read; actually up there with ABR for a town read to me. Could be good play, not thinking so atm.

17) Ojanen (replacing DocPotter) - I think what suggests to me most that she's town is the fact that she brought up that farside is confirmed town. Scum try to deal with confirmed town and if OJ is scum, she'd say something and make that a priority target. Two other night-kills later and farside is alive? I'd go with OJ town.

18) Faraday - this is more of a feel/one sided meta read of town. I hydra'd with him and his actions haven't stood out to me this game or the game I was in with him before.

19) curiouskarmadog - ranting away. Actually, this is the same as my faraday read, but without the hydra and +1 town game.

20) Albert B. Rampage - lead a lynch on two scum and counterclaimed one to seal the deal. No way in hell.

So it really is a PoE down to dybeck, boberz, and then one of Espy, Sera, ckd, Jahudo, Faraday. Jahudo is top scumpick of that group with wagon analysis from others supporting town for Esp/Sera and my personal read on ckd/Faraday.

[farside22]

Yeah my Amished town feel comes back from day 1 with that latest post.

[Patrick]

Votecount

Albert B. Rampage (1) -- dybeck
Espeonage (4) -- Faraday, NickF227, Jahudo, farside22
Seraphim (3) -- boberz, Javert, Albert B. Rampage
dybeck (1) -- Amished

Not voting: Ojanen, Seraphim, Espeonage, curiouskarmadog
13 alive, 7 to lynch.

Deadline: 26th of May

[Amished]

Also: read just the first 10 pages focusing on dybeck. If you don't get that he's staying out of every discussion to read the will of the town, you're blind. First responder meeting tonight; be back in like 2 hours or so.

[Seraphim]

I agree and apologize for my shitty play today. School has gotten brutal these last few weeks but I think I'm in the clear now that my testing is just about over.

State of the Game:

Unbelievably Town

farside22 - for fairly obvious reasons
Amished - I thought he was scum for a while but I think there was a point either today or yesterday where I suddenly realized he was town
ABR - duh
CKD - CKD sometimes makes me lynch but when I read him iso, I got a strong pro-town read from him.

Pretty Town

Ojanen - I have a fairly good pro-town read from her in iso.
Javert - I'm pretty sure Javert is town but there are some points in his iso where I just get weird vibes.
Jahudo - see Javert

Neutral

Faraday - Faraday just hasn't posted enough for me to get a good read on him.
NickF227 - I'm leaning town on him right now but I can't shake his play.

Pretty Scummy

Espeonage - Espeonage seems to keep flip-flopping in my mind. I put him down here because a lot of his play has been bad but it might just be newbtownishness.
boberz - I just don't like his play. He's about at the same as Nick except I just don't get the newbtown vibes I get from Nick

Scum

dybeck - Alright, I might have to post a full case but I think it should be pretty obvious at this point

Vote: dybeck

[dybeck]

Also: read just the first 10 pages focusing on dybeck. If you don't get that he's staying out of every discussion to read the will of the town, you're blind. First responder meeting tonight; be back in like 2 hours or so.

I was pretty clear in my own mind that I didn't like the bv or the Richard wagon. I thought I'd vocalised this pretty clearly, to be honest.

We can go down this road, if you like. Will be informative to see where it leads.

[Seraphim]

I also noticed that you attempted to derail the bv310 wagon pretty actively.

[farside22]

Before this comment dybeck was just looking into lurkers and not much else

Is anyone else NOT seeing the case on bv310 here? It seems to be built upon fairy dust, sticky tape, and opportunism to me.

@seraphim: If that's the best defence that you can muster for the bv wagon, it might be time to start casting the net a little wider, no?

I'm just pointing out that it's a little flimsy to have spiralled to L-3.

d on the wagon

I suppose my point is that a lot of fuss is always made of "OMG flipflopping scumtell!!!"... "OMG defensive scumtell!!!"... but what we all know (if we really think about it) is that the scum won't be doing anything controversial at this stage on Day 1.

They'll be sitting on the easy wagons, flying under the radar, and letting town tie itself up - as scum always do.

Having said that, I can't really offer up a better wagon at this stage - so perhaps it's worth seeing where the existing wagons take us.

Hey look this above describes dybeck's play to a tea. Thanks for letting us know your scum meta!

I just don't really see anything that bad with anything bv310's done. Seems to be playing in a pretty similar way to he did in our previous game together - where he was pro-town. Incidentally, the exact same accusation about passively agreeing with other players were levelled at him there.

You want to link me to that game for comparision?

Once they're called on it, it's clear that their lurking is doing them no good, and is making them look scummier. What 'tactical' good would it do them in this instance to continue lurking?

This is so dumb neither town or scum should resort to this tactic but scum will run and hide under pressure more then town.

I will admit that this:

I completely understand that this is the usual way of things and I expect bv310 to bite the dust for this reason. It's hard to believe that boberz is exhibiting some superior skill by unvoting - seems more like a preemptive positioning.

is what has me leaning bobz scum.

post 1007 why are you voting Sando here?

post 1310 the problem with this is you never said why.


Okay the short verision on this:
I have issues with how he floated by on day 1 and ignored the points on bv.
He votes for sando day 2 but doesn't say why and quickly unvotes to vote Faraday.
Finally the whole arguement with sando and him just looks contrived. I'm not buying the I found sando town bit when he never had a case to begin with.
Leaning scum

[Amished]

Also: read just the first 10 pages focusing on dybeck. If you don't get that he's staying out of every discussion to read the will of the town, you're blind. First responder meeting tonight; be back in like 2 hours or so.

I was pretty clear in my own mind that I didn't like the bv or the Richard wagon. I thought I'd vocalised this pretty clearly, to be honest.

We can go down this road, if you like. Will be informative to see where it leads.

Yes, the information of why you're scum. Also, only the richard wagon was in the first 10 pages. Keep trying to not read what I'm talking about. More to come, unfortunately it's going to be more gut/this sounds like scum than "omg he didn't vote for blah when blah1 happened" I get the feeling.

[Amished]

Ok, going through dybeck in ISO (since I frankly don't want to wade through 65 pages for 90 posts). You might notice that I feel dybeck is one of those players lost in a single mafia game; and only feels comfortable attacking his scummates. bv is kind of an exception since day one you don't really want to lose a mafiate.

1-6 is pure randomness before and after Richard had his freakout and saying it was for reactions (no comment on it other than asking Richard "has being a douche worked for you in the past")

7 is saying the bv case is built on fairy dust (farside quoted that in 1610)

8 is still saying the bv case is flimsy.

9 is saying that scumtells aren't scumtells and scum lurk (like he is); yet bv getting wagoned seems to be the best thing going for the game at the moment.

12 goes back to say that he hasn't seen much wrong from bv (so town, and therefore the wagon isn't good for the town; or that's what should logically follow)

18 is a slight defense of bv; and questioning sera on if he thinks bv is getting bussed or not

20 has a quote from bv saying that dybeck is pro-town (one way meta based); unfortunately this can go either way (Obviously I feel bv thinks that he's done in for and is trying to take firm stances

21 has the first emotion that I really feel from dybeck. It's more of an omgus tone to Sando questioning dybeck about his stances in the game.

24-25 attacked boberz (strongest attack of the game)

27 takes somewhat of a step back when questioned about what he thinks on boberz (the main questioned post of 24-25 is now doesn't "enlighten us to boberz alignment")

but in 28 he votes for boberz anyways.

through 36 he goes back and forth with boberz, saying we need to lynch him tomorrow (d2). Let's actually see what happened then!

41 defends pom's claim as absolute truth

42-43 has "confusion" over a hider and "something isn't right with the claim" (expressing distrust)

but in 44 we shouldn't lynch Pom.

(45 agrees with boberz that the way Pom claimed made her look like scum)

47 votes Sando (no reason)

but in 49 votes for faraday. Actually, in 49 it brings up something that no townie would ever think of (especially not with the level of thought that dybeck put into the game otherwise) and does read like inside information:

I'm going to hazard a guess at the setup. I wonder whether when town power roles choose to use a night action, scum have the option of using the same night action against town.

Unusually canny for somebody who attacked lurkers and didn't follow through on suspicions from day to day... In fact, I'd almost bet that this is exactly the way the game works; which is why strong modes haven't been used. If you applied this to one of the vig kills; that would bring it to a lylo d4 (worst case scenario) which (if true) essentially confirms a 5 player scumteam.

With that last post; I'm gonna end right there as I don't see dybeck-town ever thinking of something like that; so it'd have to be inside information.

[curiouskarmadog]

gone this weekend.

[dybeck]

With that last post; I'm gonna end right there as I don't see dybeck-town ever thinking of something like that; so it'd have to be inside information.

Why would dybeck-scum share this information with you?

Have you thought any of this through?

[dybeck]

didn't follow through on suspicions from day to day...

Hold this thought.

I completely understand that this is the usual way of things and I expect bv310 to bite the dust for this reason. It's hard to believe that boberz is exhibiting some superior skill by unvoting - seems more like a preemptive positioning.

And

definitely

this one.

We'll talk again. You'll like this.

[Javert]

1.)

I've read through Amished again, and I am going to retract my suspicion of him from earlier. My thinking that he was trying to scumhunt one particular group was largely spurred from my thinking that he was only trying to analyze the Porochaz kill and no others. Since the premise was wrong, I cannot really reach the conclusion.

Also, Amished, I did see your request, and I will try to get to it within the next few days.

2.)

I am really not persuaded by the latest posts calling Seraphim town. If you look at Seraphim's posts in isolation, literally well over half of his text this entire game was taken up by Day One. (To be fair, Days Two and Three were not as long as Day One, so maybe this is to be expected.) But Seraphim definitely has not had the same energy to his posts.

I am really not liking that Seraphim's go-to defense: when he actually starts getting a serious wagon on him today, he points to the fact that he pushed the bv310 wagon on Day One. This is far too reminiscent of a large game I played recently where a player's first defense against attacks was that there was an innocent result on him from a Sane Cop.

Just like I told that player (who turned out to be the Mafia Godfather), I have already given this defense its due deference.

The fact that Seraphim pushed the bv310 wagon does not make him town, just as an innocent investigation does not make a player town. I do not think Seraphim's play matches the play of a townsperson who led a successful lynch on Day One. Rather than being energized from a triumph like I would expect, he seems to have deflated.

Seraphim's play today in particular

does

match the play of somebody who is trying to ride through the game based on the fact that they led a scum-lynch. And I don't like it. I was willing to forgive one mistake today (when Seraphim “forgot” about NickF227 being a possible counterwagon), but it is stretching my goodwill to forgive a second mistake (when Seraphim “did not know” he had put Espeonage at L-2).

It feels like Seraphim is skating, and when you skate, you sometimes slip on the ice.

3.)

That aside, I will need to spend some time reading over these latest giant posts that have opinions on everybody. They are a lot to digest.

4.)

To those not voting: please explain why are not voting, or else vote for somebody.

[Espeonage]

I wasn't woting because at the time I had no idea where my head was at.

Anyway the last few posts have convinced me.

Vote: Seraphim

I found myself not really agreeing too much with his 1607. The last bit looks like a major bus to me. Saying he has suspicion and a case without actually putting his vote down. Just to add to the mass of points in his casefile.

[Seraphim]

Dude, I did put my vote down. And you think I'm bussing dybeck...?

WTF?

Javert, I'm 'deflated' because I've had RL issues including lots of testing and lots of homework leading up to aforementioned testing. I am done with testing. I am ready to game on again. Is there any specific point you would like me to address?

[Espeonage]

Sorry. I checked the vote count not your post.

Vote stands though.

[Jahudo]

I think Sando was actually trying to get dybeck lynched on day 1, or at least tie him to BV with statements like these:

Dybecks claim that the BV case is wishy-washy etc is classic attempt at derailing.

Dybeck seems to be consistently trying to undermine the wagons without actually providing an opinion on the wagonned people. I'm not sure exactly why, but one thing I can't fathom is why town would do this.

And when Sando downgraded his suspicion:

Dybeck - In case this wasn't obvious, Dybeck was basically me just calling him out on some fairly bad arguments. I still think they were bad, but he's been a lot better since.

I think that was more about him not finding support for a dybeck wagon. Dybeck really didn't change in that timeframe, from what I could see. Dybeck made a case for boberz that Sando disagreed with in his only mention of boberz here:

Boberz looks pro-town to me, the case seems pretty weak. Interesting that people will jump on people like Boberz and BV for floundering and not scumhunting, yet completely clear Richard of it.

dybeck and Richard, two of Sando's suspects, had made the case so I think it was more about getting them lynched than saving boberz.

I don't see dybeck as being a scumbuddy to Sando. I'll look over the dybeck cases next, but Espy is still a good lynch.

[farside22]

Jav: I'm not voting till I have a clear idea who is scum today.
I'm of the belief right now that if Dybeck isn't scum then bobz is and vis versa. I do not see them as scum together.
Also on your views with Sera. I had the same thought of scum bussing hard on their scum partner day 1 to earn town cred and that is why I will always have one eye firmly on Sera most of the game.
I have 3 more players to look at that I'm suspicious of in iso and then I will have my vote done with my top 3 scum suspects.

[Ojanen]

dybeck is totally not on my scum list.
Sando was highlighting him as a mislynch prospect imo. Look up my iso from today.

I don't understand this at all:

Actually, in 49 it brings up something that no townie would ever think of (especially not with the level of thought that dybeck put into the game otherwise) and does read like inside information:

I'm going to hazard a guess at the setup. I wonder whether when town power roles choose to use a night action, scum have the option of using the same night action against town.

Unusually canny for somebody who attacked lurkers and didn't follow through on suspicions from day to day... In fact, I'd almost bet that this is exactly the way the game works; which is why strong modes haven't been used. If you applied this to one of the vig kills; that would bring it to a lylo d4 (worst case scenario) which (if true) essentially confirms a 5 player scumteam.
With that last post; I'm gonna end right there as I don't see dybeck-town ever thinking of something like that; so it'd have to be inside information.

I just don't see this argument at all, especially with you using so certain rhetorics about it. It's really really bizarre.
Why would you say that strong modes haven't been used?

17) Ojanen (replacing DocPotter) - I think what suggests to me most that she's town is the fact that she brought up that farside is confirmed town. Scum try to deal with confirmed town and if OJ is scum, she'd say something and make that a priority target. Two other night-kills later and farside is alive? I'd go with OJ town.

Even if you had forgotten it, farside=very probable town due to Pom hiding behind her is such a simple and evident fact that I don't get your read on me based on that. I specifically would have killed her if I were scum for reason x or what are you saying?

20) Albert B. Rampage - lead a lynch on two scum and counterclaimed one to seal the deal. No way in hell.

Do you really think Albert was leading the lynch on bv?
Why did you just sadface a bit ago me finding ABR more town than you?

Your earlier stance is this

iii) I have no idea if dybeck is scum with anybody. The only time I ever see connective tells is when it's obvious that one scum is attacking one person for something, but giving a pass to a scummate for doing the same thing (lurking, or active lurking is an obvious example). I've always been better off with scumhunting by finding solo-"tells" than connections; so I just make a case based on the person that I'm attacking. It both yields me better results and doesn't allow for scum distancing or buddying which I have a hard time discerning.

yet your dybeck case reads mostly as connective tells, especially regards to bv. Why?

[boberz]

Have not been able to log in for the last day and a bit. Will post tomorrow. morn.

[dybeck]

Just realised that there is a massive flaw in my logic regarding my reasoning for voting Albert.

So I'm going back to Plan A.

unvote, vote: Faraday

Now that I'm not scum again, I'd encourage everyone to reread Faraday in iso and find a good reason to lynch him.