Open 212--Hard Boiled Mafia (Game Over)

[Confucius]

So (shamelessly stealing pie's way of outlining) I have...

(MMM, Pie) + (far, fitz)

Shouldn't you logically be voting for farside22, then, if you think havingfitz was PittBunny's Night One investigation target?

[Confucius]

Semioldguy - He attacked ythan pretty hard core and McGriddle but doesn't seem to have any imput for the start of the day. I can't say he's been really scum hunting. The biggest case he had was on ythan and question McG.
So far feels under the radar. Needs to start posting more content. Right now null read.

Reading this over, I have a hard time understanding how after writing these lines, you come to a “null read.” By Day Two, you were well aware that both Ythan and McGriddle were town. semioldguy had attacked both of them nearly exclusively. Worse, you couldn't even say he looked like he was legitimately scum-hunting. And not only that, but he was “under the radar” and “needs to post more content."

It seems that when players who are now confirmed town were "under the radar" or not "posting enough content" for your liking, it was scummy (see: your iso-reads on evilsnail and ortolan), but when applied to semioldguy it doesn't so much as make you lean scummy.

Vote: farside22

.

farside22, who do you think is town?

[Pie_is_good]

Pie wrote:
-Due to Confucius's post just before yours, I don't actually want you lynched.

Reason?

I find MMM town, but if Confucius was planning on unconditionally vigging him if he survived the night, I would be willing to lynch MMM to give Confucius a better-informed decision. However, Confucius stated that he could very well change his mind, so my premise is moot and so I would like to not lynch MMM.

(MMM, Pie) + (far, fitz)

This implies that far/fitz can't be a scumteam. Why? Or is that just a mistype?

[havingfitz]

(MMM, Pie) + (far, fitz)

This implies that far/fitz can't be a scumteam. Why? Or is that just a mistype?

It also implies that MMM and Pie can't be a scum team...which is where I'm leaning. So like Pie said, why?

[havingfitz]

OK...I maintain my suspicions towards MMM and have a hard time understanding why he is not garnering more attention. That said...everyone has an opinion and as there are more town than scum...if a predominance of players think MMM is not high enough to lynch today....so be it. We need 4 to get a lynch so there needs to be a consensus among town or we need to get scum to bus.

Earlier in D3 I said I was considering farside town. On further review I am bumping farside up a bit. And since the trend for the day is to provide groupings....here’s mine. I think the scum are (MMM or chau [leaning heavily MMM]) and (farside or Pie). Though to be honest...if MMM were to flip town, in addition to my jaw hitting the floor, I would be inclined to consider both farside and Pie higher than chau.

So my suspects in order are MMM, farside, Pie, and chau.

The main reason for chau and farside essentially swapping spot with each other is due to assessing the votes, along with farside’s switch from MMM to evil on D2 without any reason...other than MMM suddenly being less suspicious. I am of the mind that D1 and D2 wagons in general are more likely to not have entire scum teams on them. Some scum are going stay off the wagons in order to give them plausible deniability in the aftermath of their desired mislynches.

As I am content to consider Confucius confirmed town, and not including myself, I view the D1 and D2 votes as thus:

The D1 wagon had MMM, Pie/hito/RF, and chau (and semi). Therefore I think there is only one scum amongst MMM, pie and hito, and through elimination...this leaves me with farside as the other scum, which is supported by...

The D2 wagon which had farside and pie (and semi), which through elimination (and everything else I have brought up earlier) leaves me with MMM as scum.

In summary...I’d be up for a vote on either MMM or farside. I would hope Confucius would vig either the remaining person of this pair...and if that did not hit scum...I would be looking firmly at pie (that made me laugh after I typed it). I would not risk a two post LYLO town loss and vote pie immediately (which has happened to me in the past)...but it would take a good bit of convincing to sway me from chau to pie if that ended up being the D4 roster. Hopefully our D3 lynch and the vig’s shot tonight will end the game with a town win.

I would keep my vote on MMM but as I consider Confucius confirmed town and his vote is one of the four required, I’ll join him.

Unvote, Vote: farside

[farside22]

Semioldguy - He attacked ythan pretty hard core and McGriddle but doesn't seem to have any imput for the start of the day. I can't say he's been really scum hunting. The biggest case he had was on ythan and question McG.
So far feels under the radar. Needs to start posting more content. Right now null read.

Reading this over, I have a hard time understanding how after writing these lines, you come to a “null read.” By Day Two, you were well aware that both Ythan and McGriddle were town. semioldguy had attacked both of them nearly exclusively. Worse, you couldn't even say he looked like he was legitimately scum-hunting. And not only that, but he was “under the radar” and “needs to post more content."

It seems that when players who are now confirmed town were "under the radar" or not "posting enough content" for your liking, it was scummy (see: your iso-reads on evilsnail and ortolan), but when applied to semioldguy it doesn't so much as make you lean scummy.

Vote: farside22

.

farside22, who do you think is town?

I have seen town and scum attack someone hard core. For me tunneling on someone is not scummy. I could give you links to my own tunneling as town and people surmising that I'm scum because the player was town.
During that read I didn't feel I had a enough info from Semi to judge.
Ort was actively lurking as well as evil saying little to nothing of value. Plus I thought Evil and MMM scum together in my analysis.

As for who I think is town right now I only see confusion as town.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

Willing to switch my vote to farside22 for a lynch. How long until deadline?

[Confucius]

Deadline is not until May 30.

farside22, if you were forced to proclaim a second player as town (not including yourself), who would it be?

[farside22]

Deadline is not until May 30.

farside22, if you were forced to proclaim a second player as town (not including yourself), who would it be?

havingfitz based on the breadcrumb I see from Deer/Pitbunny

[Confucius]

farside22, that leaves three possible pairings from your perspective:

{Pie_is_good with chauchaudotcom}
{Pie_is_good with Mysterious Mystery Man}
{chauchaudotcom with Mysterious Mystery Man}

Which pairing do you find to be the

least

likely?

[Pie_is_good]

Farside was tragically born without an opinion. The doctors did everything they could.

I would feel a lot worse about the immediate backing of a farside lynch if I didn't already find CC scummy (so it seems entirely possible that MMM/havingfitz are legitimately town pointing fingers at farsidescum).

My case on chauchau should be up by tomorrowish, maybe?

[farside22]

farside22, that leaves three possible pairings from your perspective:

{Pie_is_good with chauchaudotcom}
{Pie_is_good with Mysterious Mystery Man}
{chauchaudotcom with Mysterious Mystery Man}

Which pairing do you find to be the

least

likely?

Tough call. Frankly I can see chauchaudotcom/MMM with his back and forth day 2 calling her town to saying she could be scum then day 3 saying he thought it was bussing from the start. Which was a lie. I could see this as weak bussing from scum.
Based on the replacement issue with Pie where Ray finds MMM scum to hito saying he was unsure to pie declaring him town. It's a mixed bag of WTF.
As for pie/Chauch. Ray didn't say much to chauch and focased all on MMM. hito just did an analysis with little interaction with anyone.

I would say I could see chauch/MMM scum team the most out of the three combo.

[Pie_is_good]

Yes, but I asked which was the

least

likely.

[farside22]

Tough call.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

Frankly I can see chauchaudotcom/MMM with his back and forth day 2 calling her town to saying she could be scum then day 3 saying he thought it was bussing from the start. Which was a lie.

Where...

[farside22]

MMM quotes:

chauchaudotcom: Looks smart town.

chauchaudotcom: Town read, seems smart. The one confusing thing is how relatively little attention she's given to mindgamer, despite his being her number 1.

I gotta say, havingfitz's 428 makes it look like he's buddies with evilsnail. As for the third scum, I think it's got to be either CC.com or semioldguy, but for the life of me I can't be sure which one.

Reading CC.com in ISO, and I found a few problems. She starts day 2 by voting havingfitz, since he's mindgamer's replacement, but then questions semioldguy. It starts with a casual 'what are you thinking', but then most of her posts are responding to his. I also don't like her disinterest in havingfitz's weak vote on her, and I'm wondering about a scum team. Given the fact that they either are or were voting for each other, they don't really seem to be questioning one another. Looks like distancing.

Flip flipping in the very next post

I'm currently undecided on CC.com, it will depend on my read of semioldguy. If he looks scummy, CC.com will look better, and vice versa. As it stands now, I see no reason to exclude CC.com from suspicion. I don't like how she switched from mindgamer to semioldguy so suddenly.

Suddenly oh wait day 3 scum partner is next. Backtrack, backtrack.

No counter-claim or cross-vote from me. I need to review the game, particularly the interactions between chauchaudotcom and semioldguy. I voiced the suspicion earlier that they were scum busing, and it's a more likely possibility now.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

I don't know how those quotes contradict each other. The fifth quote was taken from the middle of an ISO read, when I had yet to make up my mind on the SOG/CC.com issue, and wasn't contradicting the fourth quote, which was the results of my previous ISO read. As for the sixth, I was wrong to say that I said they were busing, but I thought I had mentioned it. Again, all my reads were altered by the kills and claim between D2 and D3, as I'm sure were everyone's.

[Jeffcole1]

Vote Count 3.4:

farside22 (2): Confucius, havingfitz
Pie_is_good (1): Mysterious Mystery Man

Not Voting (3): chauchaudotcom, farside22, Pie_is_good

[Confucius]

I would keep my vote on MMM but as I consider Confucius confirmed town and his vote is one of the four required, I’ll join him.

Let me make this clear.

We have over two weeks to get a lynch. Right now, I want you voting

your

top suspect, and

not

simply who you think you are most likely to get a lynch on.

When we get closer to deadline, then we can worry about actually getting a lynch.

[havingfitz]

I would keep my vote on MMM but as I consider Confucius confirmed town and his vote is one of the four required, I’ll join him.

Let me make this clear.

We have over two weeks to get a lynch. Right now, I want you voting

your

top suspect, and

not

simply who you think you are most likely to get a lynch on.

When we get closer to deadline, then we can worry about actually getting a lynch.

If you feel you are in a position to dictate our actions then you should realize you are in a position to get the lynch you prefer...regardless of who our top suspects are. If I was able to lynch one person and did not have to rely on others to make it happen...I would lynch MMM. But putting my vote on him does no good if you aren't on board with it.

ATM...unless other information comes to light...I am considering chau lowest on my list of suspects behind MMM-farside-pie. We are in a position to eliminate all three of those people depending on what your vig action is tonight. And actually...depending on who your top three suspects are....you might not even be the NK since tonight will be the last chance you get to use your vig ability. Therefore...it is probably best if you refrain from expanding beyond your top two suspects. For now, mine are MMM and farside. Happy with either one.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

I would keep my vote on MMM but as I consider Confucius confirmed town and his vote is one of the four required, I’ll join him.

Let me make this clear.

We have over two weeks to get a lynch. Right now, I want you voting

your

top suspect, and

not

simply who you think you are most likely to get a lynch on.

When we get closer to deadline, then we can worry about actually getting a lynch.

I'd say farside22 is my top, but I'm hesitant to put her at L1 without the go-ahead from the rest of you.

[Jeffcole1]

Vote Count 3.5:

farside22 (2): Confucius, havingfitz
Pie_is_good (1): Mysterious Mystery Man

Not Voting (3): chauchaudotcom, farside22, Pie_is_good

[Pie_is_good]

Having one of those Life > Mafia moments that you read about but never think will happen to you. Content either ~midday tomorrow, very late the next day, or sometime after that.

[Jeffcole1]

Normally, I would post a vote count here, but since there's only been one post since the last one (shame on you all...), there's not much point. Consider Vote Count 3.6 identical to 3.5.

[Pie_is_good]

Case against chauchau:

There's a pattern in chau's iso - with very few exceptions, she only overtly comments on people she suspects. Content directly related to other people is 100% questions. Then she votes Mindgamer and starts commenting on him. Then she starts commenting on MMM and votes him shortly after. Day 2 she spends much more time defending her own actions, but the pattern holds - with the exception of her bandwagon du jour

and an exchange with SemiOldGuy day 2

, all potentially-aggressive action towards other players is phrased as a question.

This indicates that CC is paying a fair amount of attention to her public image, which is scummy. The fact that her rule was only broken for SemiOldGuy (exception: McGriddle, briefly, early in day 1) compounds this: CCscum wouldn't be worried about antagonizing scumbuddy SOG.

More minor points against CC:
-Day 1, she didn't comment at all on the Nick wagon until one day before deadline (and even then, the comment was "I don't understand the Nick Wagon, can someone explain it?"). Indicates that she was using her MMM suspicion to avoid having to take a stance on anything else.

Also, I'll retract my point about a post rate jump for CC; I think I misinterpreted a post rate decrease by everyone else as a post rate increase by her.

Anyways,

Vote: chauchau

. A farside lynch wouldn't be the worst thing in the world come deadline but I'd prefer this.