Mini 973: "Bawhston" Brawl (WHAT A WIN!)

[havingfitz]

The game has started?

Vote Furry

for being scum iiirc in everygame I've been in with him.

[havingfitz]

Everyone target Hoopla tonight

gg

Tonight? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm......

Unvote, Vote xRECKONERx

[havingfitz]

Herm. Never been in a game with a PGO before. Let alone someone claiming PGO second post.

My head says policy lynch. My heart gets eaten by WIFOM.

unvote, Vote:Hoopla

I don't have a comment on the claim ATM as I have not played with a PGO before either. I'm not sure what the benefit was to town of such an early claim. Does a PGO only impact the people who try to kill or does the PGO also impact people who make any kind of contact (such as investigative or protective contact)? I lean towards there being more benefit to scum fakeclaiming PGO (especially so early in the game) than town legitimately claiming it.

Is lynching the PGO a standard policy lynch? Why...isn't the PGO a town affiliated role?

Unvote

since we appear to have moved on from RVS.

Real vote TBD.

[havingfitz]

Tempted to vote Slepz.

Tempted....?

---

Still not sure what the benefit of the early PGO claim was. I can only see an early PGO claim being beneficial to non-town roles. If Hoopla is town...the claim prevents pro-town roles from touching her at night...but it also gives scum a smaller field of players to look for other PRs and prevents them from visiting her. If someone can explain how an early PGO claim helps town I would be happy to consider...but for now, it seems scummy to me.

Vote Hoopla

[havingfitz]

That's an impressive list of BS Furry.

1) My RVS is over when I decide it is. RVS was over for me when I unvoted. And no comment was made on the PGO claim because I was not sure what to make of it...had not yet formed an opinion.

2) Correct...you do not get it. It was a joke response and based on 1) (i.e. I was still considering it the RVS) was perfectly acceptable. And you are calling me out for "continuing to take up space instead of contribute" after only two posts in what was arguably RVS? That is BS.

3) How is my statement scummy either way? I'm not sure what to make of the claim and am leaning towards it being more beneficial to scum. And that is scummy either way? WTF? Do you have info on the claim that warrants we all listen to you?

4) Asking a question on PGO policy lynching in response to someone bringing it up is "more fishing" for it? That's ridiculous. You are really working hard to fabricate valid points...and to no avail.

5) Are those Furry's Rules? Other than RVS (see my first two votes) I don't put votes on people unless I suspect them and am willing to lynch them. The unvote was me exiting the RVS stage without a preferred/real alternative. Which after further consideration has changed.

[havingfitz]

WTF is with the Hoopla wagon? Are we all taking crack now?

Unvote. Vote: havingfitz.

These bandwagon hoppers need to go. Also, havingfitz accuses Furry of bullshitting, which should be considered scummy by any player, but doesn't vote for Furry, and sticks with a Hoopla vote for reasons I will never fully understand.

WTF is the problem with a Hoopla wagon? If people suspect her they should vote her. And why say bandwagon hoppers need to go immediately after hopping on my bandwagon...do you need to go? Furry's 'case' on me does make me a little leery of him but not enough to move my vote.

havingfitz, meanwhile, just jumps on the Hoopla wagon after gaining some votes with no further explanation to his unvote. This was also after Hoopla voted fitz - countervoting always twitches my scumdar a bit.

What does 'just jumps....after gaining some votes' mean? I gave my reasoning with my vote and the fact it came after Hoopla's vote on me (with no reason whatsoever....what does that do to your scumdar?) can't be helped. I was not going to refrain from a Hoopla vote just because she had placed one on me...which BTW came after I had expressed the opinion her claim was more beneficial to scum than town.

I tend to not take anything at face value in mafia unless it can be proven somehow. As I've mentioned...I have not played a game with a PGO before and after further consideration I am not prepared to to accept a claim that can not be confirmed and provides such an umbrella of protection. I don't know when the best time to claim PGO is but to come out so early in the game seems off to me.

@ all - Do most PGO's claim immediately? Is it standard practice?

In addition, fitz's unvoting for the same reason as Oso can also be seen as him trying to blend in with what others are doing, kind of supported by his BW vote of Hoopla.

The same could be said for your (and nikanor's) criticisms and votes on me. I.e. your point is worthless.

---

No town roles attempting to use a protown action kill themselves by targeting the PGO this way...

I realize this...you are basically paraphrasing what I say in the comment you are quoting. To be clearer...if there any

other

reason for the PGO to claim...especially right from the start. As mentioned...I see more benefit to scum than town with an early PGO claim.

On that note...if a PGO was on the verge of getting lynched and claimed...would it save them?

You dont ignore the growth forming on your arm because you dont know what it is. Also RVS *should* end as soon as anyone makes a non-random move, since at that point information exists. Also zero opinion or just little opinion?

This isn't an episode of House. It was a claim I needed to digest and I was in "game start w/ perfunctory RV vote" mode.

Greater than zero but less than absolute certainty.

Yeah thats basically it. Also why joke as if the role actually exists if you are still unsure about the role existing?

Huh? My joke response was a RV on xRECKONERx for saying let's all lynch Hoopla 'tonight'...which is when scum do their actions (ie at night)...hence the RV. It had nothing to do...still...with the PGO RC.

Either way related to the previous points of you having an existing opinion on the claim. You use a whole lot of roundabout talk in coming to the conclusion that he is faking the claim. What are your basic opinions on miller claims?

Where do I use roundabout talk? In trying to better understand the rationale/benefit of a PGO claim? Is gaining a better understanding of the pros/cons of a game event a bad thing? I have never played with a miller, and since it has no bearing on this game due to different role dynamics (ie actions involving millers don't result in the death of others)...why does it matter?

Why do you want to know if a lynch is policy or not unless you are interested in persuing it? I see no real town motivation in wanting to know if its standard to policy lynch a PGO before trying to push one.

Because I have not played with the role and therefore/in addition have not seen the role considered as a target for policy lynching before. Curiosity. Self improvement in the game of mafia. If asking a simple question about policy lynching in response to someone else bringing it up is such a scumtell...what would the motivation be for scum to ask the question? Perhaps I'm just not familiar with the role and the policy lynching aspect of it and wanted more info. As for the fact I currently have a vote on Hoopla...call it what you will: OMGUS, a policy-lynch vote, whatever. The fact is I feel better not believing the claim and putting a vote on her than I do putting blind faith in the fact she is telling the truth.

IIRC games ive seen you in, you normally have a vote out. Votes are awesome though. Unless something major is happening you should always have a vote out.

If I feel a game is out of RVS and I don't have a strong suspcion I will unvote without placing a new one. And I do normally have a vote out...and I do.

@Furry...what is your take on xRECONERx. He appears to have ignored the PGO claim intially as well and has done a much better job of "continuing to take up space instead of contribute" than the two RV post you called me out for.

[havingfitz]

InflatablePie...in post 40 I was undecided....which is

why

I didn't place a vote.

Hoopla...your suspicions towards me amount to nothing more than OMGUS reasoning and the dreaded policy lynch fishing is a load of crap. I was asking for clarification. If (attn Furry) people want to consider my vote on you a policy lynch I guess they can. I'm voting you because I think it is more beneficial for scum to make the claim and along the lines of what Slepz said...I would rather take a chance of lynching an anti-town player making a gambit or mislynching a PR that really does town no good and will only fester suspicions throughout the game than take a chance of mislynching potentially more beneficial PRs. And by lynching you first...if you are telling the truth...we aren't making things any easier for scum because I doubt they would be targetting you in the first place. Your claim has essentially narrowed the field for them (assuming your claim is real).

Nikanor....nothin is wrong with a havingfitz BW if there are valid reasons (which I do not think there are). My point was you called out people for bandwagonning in the same post in which you yourself jump on my bandwagon. That seems a bit a contradiction...which I find suspcious.

Oso...how are you tying me to RH?

xRECKONERx...Why do I annoy you? You should postmore content or else Furry will not be happy.

[havingfitz]

@All

Sorry, I am only just keeping up what with exams and the such like anyway.

I cant quite get out of my head that Oso is scum and Fitz is his partner?

I dont know..

No you don't.

Based on the time you have put into the game I can understand this profound and insightful analysis. Bravo. Your exams are in for a thrashing.

[havingfitz]

InflatablePie...in post 40 I was undecided....which is

why

I didn't place a vote.

Yes, but in 40 you also said that the claim was more beneficial to scum. And you only voted after Hoopla voted you...

This is what I said, "I lean towards there being more benefit to scum fakeclaiming PGO (especially so early in the game) than town legitimately claiming it."

...which is not quite as firm a stance as your satement that I said the claim "

was

more beneficial to scum." Which was a stance I took later (when I voted) and explains the unvote without a vote (i.e. due to my uncertainty at the time on an appropriate vote recipient).

So it is policy. Why did it take you so long to push policy? What is your view on Miller claims? What would be your view on a page one VT claim?

Show me where I have called my stance "policy". Is the fact you continue to color my vote a policy vote the basis for your voting me? If it is...isn't that essentially policy lynching people who push policy lynches (which I am not but you are accusing me of). Asking questions related to the previously unknown to me concept of policy lynching PGOs and actually pushing for a policy lynch are two different things. As I have never pushed "policy lynches" before...accusing me of doing so now is totally unfounded. I have given my reasoning for suspecting/voting Hoopla, and on the basis of policy lynching is not one of them.. Interesting to note the one previous time I was accused of pushing a policy lynch was when I was town being accused by scum. Coincidence?

I've already responded to your miller question.

A page one VT claim would strike me as odd and therefore capture my attention in a negative light. But I would not view it as negatively as I would/do a page one PGO claim.

What do you think the right decision is if you were dealt the hand of PGO?

I consider claiming it a little like insurance - you can run the risk that no town PR's will hit you, and they might not. You might be lynched, or NK'ed by anti-town faction first, and that is a positive result. But if it goes wrong, it really goes wrong and I have the power to wipe out multiple town PR's, which has the ugly image of looking like 3rd party/mafia if I were to then claim. Claiming Day 1 prevents the best and worst case scenarios, which is more beneficial to town when the worst case scenarios are more powerful/likely than the best case scenarios.

Policy lynches contribute to town losses in the long run, because they are based on policy as opposed to any genuine scumhunting. It means at best, the lynch will be random (that is if you assume scum isn't the ones pushing policy lynches), and when you only have three mislynches in a Mini Normal, it hurts a lot if you're wrong. You should be able to assess my play and find things I am doing to be more town or scum motivated, rather than just policy.

See Policy statements to Furry above.

If I was a PGO (having never been one or played with one) I would probably keep it closehold unless I was in danger of being lynched. I'm not sure when or if I would claim it but I am pretty confident it would not be to start off a game.

As I've already stated, in what I am sure is not an all inclusive break down, I see it benefitting scum more than town because if the claimer is town and telling the truth:

- Keeps other PRs from touching you at night

(Good for town)

- As long as you are alive it continues to cast suspicions on validity of your claim and motives behind the early claim

(IMO bad for town)

- I don't think it improves your chances of staying alive any more than town players who have not claimed

(Null advantage)

- Keeps anti-town roles from touching you at night

(Bad for town)

- It tells scum who you are and allows them to look elsewhere for other possible PRs.

(Bad for town)

Whereas if the claimer is an anti-town role fakeclaiming:
- Keeps town PRs from touching you at night

(Bad for town)

- It forces town PRs to look elsewhere for other possible anti-town...however...the advantage of narrowing the field for town to affect anti-town with their night actions is less (assuming 2-3 remaining anti-town roles) than anti-town's advantage mentioned above in finding town PRs.

(Bad for town)

- As long as you are alive it continues to cast suspicions on validity of your claim and motives behind the early claim

(IMO bad for town)

- I don't think it improves your chances of staying alive any more than town players who have not claimed

(Null advantage)

Taken as a whole...I see the PGO claim to be overall more beneficial to scum which is why I am voting you. Not on policy....because I think your claim was scummy. Additionally...the fact it has not gotten more support tends to make me think scum are supporting it.

[havingfitz]

EBWOP...last line above should read:

Additionally...the fact a Hoopla wagon has not gotten more support tends to make me think scum are not supporting it.

[havingfitz]

Online time has been at a premium this weekend due to RL commitments. Will try to post this evening (tomorrow morning at the latest).

[havingfitz]

Show me where I have called my stance "policy".

Just because you don't call it that doesn't mean the rest of us can't.

You're voting for Hoopla based only on her roleclaim. You don't seem to be considering her other posts at all. This makes me think you'd be voting for anybody who'd claimed PGO in their first post, regardless of who they were or what else they posted. That may not be a policy lynch by your definition, but arguments against policy lynches easily double as arguments against your position.

I come in, catch up and I'm about to post that fitz IS calling for a policy lynch despite what he calls it... and everyone and their mother beats me to it.

Notice that to make this explanation of why Hoopla's RC means she should be lynched you didn't actually have to mention her name. Not once. This indicates that your reasoning has nothing to do with Hoopla's play other than the fact of her RC. It is, in essence, an explanation of why all early Day 1 PGO claims should be lynched.

Whether you're willing to admit it or not, what you are advocating is a policy lynch of Hoopla.

You should be able to assess my play and find things I am doing to be more town or scum motivated, rather than just policy.

Just because some people consider my suspicions towards Hoopla a policy lynch doesn’t make it one. Per the wiki,

A policy lynch is an argument for the lynch of a player that may be advanced

not because the player is found to be particularly scummy,

but because the player's bad play will hurt the town later on.

I find Hoopla scummy based on the timing of her claim and because IMO, a PGO claim is more beneficial to scum than town, as outlined in post 122.

Re: GP’s comment above, I have considered Hoopla’s others posts and I find her vote on me without reason and her inclination to suspect/vote anyone who suspects her to be scummy. Her entire game so far is based on OMGUS. Other than what I would assume is a pressure vote on Oso, all her votes have been on people who have voiced suspicions or voted her. Her player analysis backs that up.

Essentially her opinions are:

- Furry: she likes because he believes her claim.
- Gwynplaine: Read has improved since he attacked Slepz (who btw is voting Hoopla)
- Me of course:

havingfitz

He is my pick for lynch today. He's dropped the most information about his alignment than anyone else, and I am liking the personnel in favour of this lynch, which makes me feel better about it. He initially didn't respond directly to my claim, which I interpret as a loose scum team. I imagine town players would be dazzled/confused/intrigued enough to comment on it, whereas ignoral of such a detail indicates belief, but is not sure how to react to it.

Fishing for the policy lynch is his biggest crime - it's as if he's testing the waters for supporters of a Hoopla wagon without getting his hands dirty himself. His opinions have slowly morphed towards policy lynch, even if he doesn't recognise it as that.

I’m your pick because I’m voting you. As mentioned above...you like the people who suspect me. You somehow interpret my lack of immediate opinion on your claim as part of a ‘loose scum team’ (whatever the he|| that means) which btw would lump me with Oso and xRECKONERx who also passed over immediate opinion. Then you go on to hypothesize the people ignoring your claim don’t believe you. I don't know if that would apply to everyone (Oso and xRECK appear to at least) but in my case you are correct...I don't believe you. Then you go on to claim my biggest crime is fishing for the policy lynch....which I never did. And I have no problem getting my hands dirty...hence my vote on you. [sarcasm]I like your conviction on my wagon though.[/sarcasm]

- InflatablePie: Doesn’t know where he stands so she can’t formulate an opinion on him.
- JacobSavage: Same as InflatablePie.
Has posted next to nothing. His first actual 'content' post, if you can call it that, was uninformative and didn't take any major stances, or even reference any of the major events. Need to hear a lot more from him soon, though.
- Nikanor: Similar to the last two...Nik hasn’t posted much. But the big difference is Nik is voting me and is against a Hoopla wagon. Hoopla verdict on Nik? Guess. Yep...

(*)

”Liking his play so far” and “Probably town from my perspective.”
- Oso: “Started out poorly, ignoring my claim” but she “can't help get town vibes from his play.” I think the deal sealer here is Oso’s claim that “Anyone with a vote on Hoopla at the moment is at the top of my list scum candidates.”
- q21: No real stance I believe because she’s not sure where he stands.
- Radical Hijinx: Didn’t like RH initially but as he focused on others and seemed to back away from his Hoopla suspicions, her opinion of him seems to have improved.
- Slepz: A vote for Hoopla says it all...as evidenced by her recent (without accompanying reasoning) vote on Slepz.
- xRECKONERx: Didn’t like xRECK’s start (ie ignoring her claim and joking about lynching her) but her opinion of him has changed as it became obvious he was joking.

The Moral....if you suspect Hoopla...she suspects you. (At lease that appears to be her policy)

[havingfitz]

Oops, forgot to respond to the first bit by fitz. What I meant to say was that if fitz finds me suspicious, he should make it more clear in the wording of his posts. I've never once caught a vibe that fitz found me suspicious until he said it outright.
Also, here I must include the necessary "If you think I'm suspicious then vote me biatch."

It’s not my problem reading comprehension escapes you. In post 77 I questioned your bandwagon vote on me (which was in the same post you proclaim bangwagon hoppers need to go). Then I later say I found the contradiction I pointed out in post 77 suspicious...and that’s not clear enough?

When was I supposed to tell you I found something you did suspicious? Before you had done anything I found suspicious? BTW, you still never answered my question to you in post 77.

And I'll vote for you when you're at the top of my list. Right now your just in the top four or five.

[havingfitz]

Three more votes on Slepzlurkerscum.
Gwynplaine, would you be opposed to changing your vote over to Slepz today?
fitz, how about this: I'll answer your question when you vote Slepz. Sound fair?

It would sound fair if I got the feeling Slepz was scum, which I don't. Though if I voted him Hoopla might like me. I do get the feeling scum is railroading him. Plus I'm sure your response would be unsatisfactory.

[havingfitz]

Slepz is lurking. So he needs to die. End of story.
Vote Slepz for Mafioso 2010.

Lurking? Is that that policy lynch thing again? What about JacobSavage...is he a lurker? Or xRECKONERx...he's lurking...actively. 22 posts and he hasn't said a thing. Right now if Hoopla was modkilled I would have my vote on xRECK.

[havingfitz]

JacobSavage has gone from suspect due to lack of contribution to scummy for his recent contribution. The only way I would vote for someone I thought was town was if I was scum. My suspcions towards Hoopla remain...but there is no b/w support for her ATM and JS's recent terrible play bumps him to my top spot.

Unvote, Vote JacobSavage

[havingfitz]

Unvote

Since JS' claim is at least in some way confirmable I'm willing to give that a chance. However...since he could still fairly easily be (as someone else mentioned) SK or mafia...I'm not ready to color him town by any means. I'm not sure dictating who his target tonight is the best move as if he is telling the truth...scum could tailor their play tonight to discredit the claim...most obviously by not submitting a scumkill. But I'm not sure how to get around that. I lean towards Slepz being town so I for one would not support his lynch at this time or his targetting by JS.

Also, I really don't understand this post by TBM:

Considering we have a vig (I find his claim highly belivable) and a lurker I'm agianst lynching Slepz. Instead we have JS kill him tonight (I don't trust JS to use his gun responsibly if left to his own devices) thus making sure we get the best possible value from our vig and we don't waste our lynch today.

Thoughts?

You're against lynching Slepz because he is a lurker (it actually appears he has just bailed to me) but you want JS (if we are to believe his claim) to vig Slepz. WTH? How does that make sense and how is that not wasting what is in essence...the same as a lynch by directing JS towards someone you are against lynching?

Question to all...is there any reason mafia would not want JS dead tonight? If he is telling the truth this could potentially be our one shot at using his PR.

I think the TBM post above is very scummy and I think a better course of action would be

Vote TheButtonmen

and have JS vig Hoopla. JS is probably gone anyway tonight so targetting Hoopla is no great loss. Especially when they, IMO, have both given cause to a great deal of suspicions with their D1 play.

Next on my list besides Hoopla would be xRECK for his continued and blatant active lurking.

[havingfitz]

@ Furry - As I have focused on both of them today it would be easy to say I think they are both scum. I'm not sure though. I think one of them definitely but JS's claim has muddied things for me. If he is telling the truth though he is a prime target for the NK so as I pointed out earlier....and as Hoopla elaborated on...I think the best solution would be for JS to target Hoopla tonight and go for the lynch of whomever is next highest on everyone's list's (which for me is TBM).

[havingfitz]

@fitz and TBM - What would you say if I say im nearly 100% sure one of you two are scum?

Consider the fact I was voting TBM at the end of D1 (http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 23#2292923)...I would say you have a good chance of being correct. Unless TBM is not scum in which case you would be wrong. Still not buying the Hoopla claim though her current vote on my eoD1 target gives me pause. If TBM were to flip town it would reinforce my suspicions towards Hoopla (though I'm confident Hoopla would have no problem bussing as well).

[havingfitz]

@fitz and TBM - What would you say if I say im nearly 100% sure one of you two are scum?

I would say I'm not a fan of publicly making pairings like that.

How is listing two people one thinks could be scum a bad thing?

@fitz and TBM - What would you say if I say im nearly 100% sure one of you two are scum?

Consider the fact I was voting TBM at the end of D1 ...I would say you have a good chance of being correct.

Lulwhut; how does you voting me mean anything in that context?

Uhhh...Furry is saying he is fairly certain one of us is scum. As I was voting you D1 (i.e. think you are scum)...it is relevant in the context of his question.

Where was I......Oh.

Vote: TBM

[havingfitz]

v/LA until Thursday night.

Won't have internet access unless I drag the laptop down to the nearest wifi spot. I.e. I might get a chance or two to check in.

[havingfitz]

Still v/LA. Checking in for a few minutes and not seeing anything worth commenting on other than I'm surprised by the fact TBM has not been lynched yet. wtf?

[havingfitz]

Still v/LA. Checking in for a few minutes and not seeing anything worth commenting on other than I'm surprised by the fact TBM has not been lynched yet. wtf?

And why, precisely are you so eager to speedlynch TBM.

Do my comments indicate the desire for a speedlynch? How would you define 'speedlynching?'

Not so much that I am eager as I am surprised he is still around. When I went v/LA it appeared momentum was going that direction (and still is with his current L-1 positon). Whether it is speedy or not...I support it because I think he's scum.

[havingfitz]

Shyte.

Mod...feel free to delete one of my double posts.

Done.

[havingfitz]

I'm advocating a 'speedy lynch;' you think a lynch is premature at this point.

It's RL day 10. When would you feel more warm and comfy with a lynch taking place?

BTW...TBM's post 402 above seems like he's given in. I did not see a claim anywhere either. Can we hammer him now Q? Huh? Can we, can we (we being anyone not currently on the TBM wagon {attn: Nik}).

[havingfitz]

That was a rather scummy post, havingfitz.
I'm still going to wait for TBM to claim before I hammer.

What was scummy about my post? The fact I’m questioning Q21's inference that I'm supporting a 'speedy lynch' and that a lynch at this time is premature? How is disagreeing with those opinions scummy?

I can see Hoopla/TBM. fitz is also a bit scummy in his latest post, but he doesn't exactly fit in well with those two. Maybe fitz/TBM, but not Hoopla/fitz or even all three - I don't think there would be two scum bussing one - this is of course, assuming the setup is 8:3:1.

Actually, Hoopla/fitz pairing might work if there's three scum, if one is on the Nik wagon or something. But they're both pushing/voting for TBM so it's unlikely IMO.

So you are linking me to the two people I have focused on the majority of the game? Brilliant.

Yo Fitz mind laying out why you think I'm scum?

I just went back and ISO'ed you and you never actually did; just kept saying your happy with your vote.

@The People Wanting Me To Claim:

Gimme until Fitz answers m'kay?

Uh...I gave my reasoning with my initial TBM vote. And other than the fact I have maintained my vote on you....what are you basing this,

’ just kept saying your happy with your vote’

comment on?

The background on my suspicions towards you is the link I just provided coupled with higher suspicions I had on D1 of JacobSavage and Hoopla. JS' claim put me off his wagon and Hoopla’s D1 wagon, along with a potential D2 wagon, have not had any traction. Therefore, I'm continuing my support of your lynch instead. If I had to choose between you and Hoopla I would prefer Hoopla for all of the D1 reasons I provided. Unfortunately, as already stated, she has stayed under the radar D2 and is not getting the attention I think she still deserves.

In addition to the comments I made when I placed my vote on you, I also find you suspicious for your reaction to Furry’s question to both of us (which I explain with my D2 vote on you) and the votes you place on Q21 (TBM ISO 15) and Nik (TBM ISO 25) which both came without any reasoning I can uncover.

[havingfitz]

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element. TBM and Furry on Nikanor (may they rest in peace) coupled with the quick vote on TBM by Nik before TBM could claim...and not providing any case on TBM after waiting for me to provide mine.....has Nikanor atop my scum list.

Vote Nikanor

[havingfitz]

MS, how do you think we should go about doing well without doing a massclaim?

Scumhunt of course~

Vote:HavingFitz

You were second on my list, and scummy besides. -shrugs- No hard feelings dude

I don't mind your vote but it would be nice if you gave some reasoning other than pushing a policy lynch. Is that all you have to warrant a vote on me?
I guess it's more than what you had on TBM when you voted him though.

A quick ISO of you shows you really haven't done much of anything so far in this game. Other than back a mass claim...with the provision that its the right thing to do. So PC of you. Too bad I'm voting Nik or you'd have my vote.

[havingfitz]

Hoopla...in your database of game setups...how often are there Cops included in games with SKs and or PGOs? Though my vote is on Nik...barring a counterclaim I am inclined to believe him.

Which if I am to continue believing Hoopla's claim leaves the, assuming, three remaining mafia members to be within this group: Midnight's Sorrow, Inflatable Pie, Oso, and Gwynplaine. Which would also be the order I would suspect them.

Unvote

I will vote Midnight's Sorrow once the MC is over assuming nothing contradicts Nik's claim.

[havingfitz]

Oh...and I'm vanilla townie.

[havingfitz]

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element.

You could have assumed this yesterday. Why did this sudden change of heart come about today?

I didn't really give you much thought yesterday as I carried my D1 vote/suspicions over to D2 up through his lynch.

Why the vote on Gwynpaine. Curious since of the four scum candidates I have remaining after the PGO claim and the cop + results (MS, IP, Oso, GP), he's last on my list.

Midnight Sorrow's previous weak vote on me coupled with her current, even greater, weak vote comes across as an opportunistic pile-on to Gwyn and solidifies the vote that I said earlier this day was heading her way.

Vote: Midnight's Sorrow

[havingfitz]

*clenches fist*.....-.-......D:< IM NOT A SHE!!!! ARRRRRRRRGHH! GET IT RIGHT!!!!

Sorry...maybe they'll reinstall the gender symbols.

[havingfitz]

For what it's worth...below is the number of times the players in the 2nd column mention other 'suspects' across each row. This is only up to the last lynch (though the post totals are for the entire game). Ex. GP mentions IP 3 times, Slepz/dsister/MS 17, Hoopla 7 times, etc. I would assume unless there was some serious bussing going on that scum would tend to avoid scum. I included Hoopla myself to be objective.

FMPOV the 2 remaining scum are within IP, Oso and MS. I know I was on to MS yesterday, but looking at these numbers lead me to think MS might not be scum. Everyone is bringing him up fairly evenly. I think Oso and IP basically avoiding each other the entire game is telling coupled with GP's lack of attention their way.



I would prefer an IP lynch before I would an Oso lynch...but that is where I currently think the remaining scum are.

[havingfitz]

Having said that, this worries me too - a post by fitz early on Day 3 before the massclaim;

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element. TBM and Furry on Nikanor (may they rest in peace) coupled with the quick vote on TBM by Nik before TBM could claim...and not providing any case on TBM after waiting for me to provide mine.....has Nikanor atop my scum list.

Vote Nikanor

Nikanor is virtually confirmed town now, and at the time was probably considered a main suspect - which is a double-edged sword really. Despite looking as if scum are forcing a mislynch on a townie, it's also understandable when you consider the general suspicion around Nikanor at the time. I think the key to this post is how he disregards suspicion of me, and hastily pushes elsewhere, as if the mind just suddenly changes so liberally.

I already addressed this yesterday:

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element.

You could have assumed this yesterday. Why did this sudden change of heart come about today?

I didn't really give you much thought yesterday as I carried my D1 vote/suspicions over to D2 up through his lynch.

As I said...it was not a sudden change on D3. You only came up once iirc as an afterthought on D2 as the focus for most people, including yourself, was TBM. After two completed days tbh your claim had faded a bit due to the scummy play of others. It's still in the back of my mind and I'll be pissed if you wind up scum but I'd rather focus on 2 out of 3 (IP, Oso, MS) than 2 out of 4.

---

Question though: if we're in MyLo, would a no lynch today be a plausible idea at all? If it really is 4:2, then a no lynch would eliminate one player, making things easier to narrow down. It would most likely be Nikanor (iirc, everyone but Nik/Hoopla claimed vanilla, meaning no doc), but with a roleblocker alive our cop's powers are limited. Plus, if we are somehow in 9:2:1, that means right now, we have 5:1 - if we lynch scum, we then have to no lynch to lylo. Either way, we have to vote no lynch, the question is if we do it today or tomorrow. If Hoopla's theory is correct (or even if it isn't), it seems the smarter move to NL today, but I'm not sure how you guys treat MyLo here on MS. Of course, we can still scumhunt today and attempt to peg scum, so let's continue.

How does this logic help anyone other than scum? If we no lynch and the assumption is Nik would be the NK, then we are still in the position of having lynch scum from myself, IP, Oso, and MS...but without a confirmed townie to help in the hunt. Agree NL might be the way to go tomorrow but it gets us no where today (IMO).

[havingfitz]

I don't have any reason to not have my vote out. As mentioned in my player references post I have dropped MS to the bottom of my three suspects (IP, OsO, MS) and as I believe Nikanor and am believing Hoopla....

VOTE: InflatablePie

[havingfitz]

Quick post since we are at L-1 on Oso.

Nikanor

...please hold off on hammering Oso for a bit.

I'm trying to get my thoughts around actions/posts from the last day or so along with Hoopla's analysis. As the next lynch is most likely the end of the game for you and possibly the end of the game period...it would be prudent to think things over. It would be good to get your parting thoughts and to hear what Oso has to say on the sudden turnaround too.

Plus...I’m trying to resolve all the possibilities in my head as well and that takes awhile.

If I’m on board with an Oso lynch after I have pondered what to do I will at least give you and Oso the opportunity to post thoughts.

I’ll try to post my opinion in the next few hours.

[havingfitz]

A lot of action/flopping over the last day or two. Pardon this post as it is my rambling thoughts on the current state of the game. From my perspective (town that is)...as I have mentioned before, I’ve been focused on (IP, Oso, and MS) containing the last two scum because I believe Nik 100% and I’ve chosen to believe Hoopla.

If Hoopla is telling the truth with his PGO claim and the draw scenario is in play...then either scum did not realize it (and if I’m being perfectly honest...I did not realize 1 scum and 1 PGO=draw) and Oso or MS were bussing IP OR IP is town and Oso and MS are the remaining two scum.

Then we have Hoopla’s vote on Oso and highlighting of the draw scenario followed by quick votes by MS and IP on Oso...which would once again indicate scum bussing scum (with the now obvious realization by all of the draw possibilities) unless MS and IP were scum together. So one way or another...scum had to be bussing scum...unless MS is scum in which case either wagon has the potential to not include bussing.

The fact I was leaning primarily towards IP and Oso as the last two scum based on my post references analysis would mean they have both bussed each other on the recent wagons...the latter with the knowledge it would result in a draw. So that has me thinking perhaps Oso and IP are not where we need to look.

However...if IP and Oso were both town...and Hoopla and MS were the remaining scum...then Hoopla could have easily dropped a hammer on IP and that would have been game since we would have gone into the next day 2-2 (ie scum win). So....Hoopla and MS are definitely not both scum.

What if Hoopla was fakeclaiming as some (raising hand) though on D1? Could Hoopla and IP be scum? IP was up to L-1 for a short time and only the absence of Nik potentially saved him from lynching. If IP and Hoopla were scum...and Hoopla wanted the game to be over now (ie earn a mislynch) rather than face another day of deliberations following an IP lynch...she (Hoopla) would not want to see IP get lynched and pulling out the draw card along with a rediect of the bandwagon would be the perfect play to bring the game to it’s end.

Possible combos FMPOV with valid PGO claim:

Oso + MS -- don’t see this being the case with MS’ current vote putting Oso on the brink of a lynch
Oso + IP -- don’t see this being the case with IP’s current vote putting Oso on the brink of a lynch
MS + IP -- only option that avoids a draw and secures a scum win.

In summary...if the PGO claim is legitimate, MS and IP are the scum.

A search of a few minis where Hoopla was scum show some creative claims (miller and FBI agent) so I think a PGO would be par for the course. Unusual. Most people not sure how to deal with it.

With that in mind, possible combos FMPOV with fake PGO claim and therefore no concerns about a draw:

Since a fakeclaim by hoopla would indicate she was scum I will only look at combos involving her:

Oso + Hoopla -- ruled out due to Hoopla passing on the IP vote in what would have secured a win for Hoopla + Oso.
MS + Hoopla -- ruled out due to Hoopla passing on the IP vote in what would have secured a win for Hoopla + Oso.
IP + Hoopla -- Only possible option with a PGO fakeclaim.


Apologies if the post doesn’t flow well...it was typed as the thoughts came to mind.

---

tl/dr..... the last two scum are either MS and IP (assuming Hoopla’s claim is true) OR IP and Hoopla.

IP is the common deneominator in both scenarios. My vote stays on IP and I would urge the remaining townies to follow suit.

[havingfitz]

MS...if you are town (which I believe after Hoopla's last two posts) please take your vote off Oso and do a little reading to form your own opinion.

Nik...I don’t know where you have gone but since your next post could very well be your last, please vote IP.

Nik & MS -- I’m certain IP is scum and after Hoopla’s last two posts I’m confident she has been playing us. Look at her meta...she is a very good player as anti-town. She is in the habit of coming up with creative fakeclaims that are extremely unlikely to be countered and therefore only proven with her lynch.

I have given her a pass the last two days because her play IS good but as she mentions in the quote below...the process of elimination forces me to reconsider her and it is a good fit.

The thing about Oso is that he's seemed protown for most of the game, so I am finding it hard to see him as scum.

Yes, I agree muchly, but it has got to the point where logical process of elimination cases supersede behavioural tells. He has played a good game, I think, but I am ~80% sure he is scum.

Here are those assumptions with how strongly I deem them to be true;

1) Hoopla and Nikanor are town (99%)
2) Midnight's Sorrow is town (75%)
3) InflatablePie and havingfitz aren't scum together (85%)

I know many on this site have a tendency to exaggerate their certainty, but I feel these percentages are as accurate reflection as I can get. Midnight's Sorrow being town is the shakiest of them all, but I still very much doubt he is scum based on Gwyn's interactions and votes toward him. I've made numerous posts outlining this so I won't elaborate further - it is open to debate though. With the third assumption, this is based largely on their play today, and again I have addressed this multiple times.

Lets say I am right on all of those assumptions, it means Oso

must

be scum with one of InflatablePie and havingfitz. I deem this likelier than one of my assumptions being wrong, which is why I think it is the correct lynch today. If you're opposed to an Oso lynch, you must deem one of my assumptions to be wrong, or to be less likely than Oso being scum.

You are right on your assumptions 2 and 3. You are wrong on #1, which interestingly enough, you do not have at 100%. You know your role...Nik is confirmed through no counter...so why isn’t #1 100%?

Then we have Hoopla’s vote on Oso and highlighting of the draw scenario followed by quick votes by MS and IP on Oso...which would once again indicate scum bussing scum (with the now obvious realization by all of the draw possibilities) unless MS and IP were scum together. So one way or another...scum had to be bussing scum...unless MS is scum in which case either wagon has the potential to not include bussing.

He tries to use the scum bussing argument here also, but it doesn't take into consideration a Fitz/Oso team, so it's a rather useless summary. With InflatablePie getting to L-1, it is a much bigger difference as all three non-confirmed players were on it. The rest of havingfitz's post is equally illuminating - scrambling to bring me back into consideration again knowing the scumteam has been pinned. This was one thing I was quite wary of, Oso and havingfitz were both very much agreeing with me, believing my claim as long as I was off-track, but have flipped (at least fitz has) as soon as my radar has fixed on scum. I think this also coincides with them now realising a draw is their only possible result and is a natural scum tactic to either discredit me, or make me less trustworthy.

Scum bus as you are well aware of and I know you have done it before (ex. the mini you fake claimed FBI agent). I did not consider an HF/Oso team because I know I am not scum. I realize other townies have no way of confirming the fact I am town (except for Oso now that I have failed to hammer him) but that is what gives me my current gamesight. Equally...there is no way any town can know your PGO claim is true. There is absolutely no way for us to know or confirm short of your lynch that your claim is true. We are at the point in the game where the combinations are limited and there is no reason for you to not be considered...other than a claim that is one of the least likely to be countered. And you fit very nicely into a scum team with IP. Also...you don’t take into consideration an Hoopla/IP team so all of your previous arguments present a ‘rather useless summary.’

Nik and MS....take a look at Hoopla and IPs recent exchanges and see if you can pick up on what I see as very much a Hoopla coaching effort. Iirc you have both been fairly suspicious of IP and of a mind that Oso was town. If your guts have been right and Oso was (IS) town...how would the scum team options fit? Read mine and Oso’s recent posts to see it laid out.

Hoopla...how does a Hoola/IP team fit? In regards to your comment on an HF/Oso team not being considered....that would be one of the combinations that would fit a scum team. Just not from my (and now Oso’s) POV.

I hope the rest of the town sees how obvious the scumteam of Oso/havingfitz is becoming. Surprisingly (or perhaps not), they've both come to conclusions that the other is town, which is exactly the sort of the tactic the scumteam must adopt in this situation.

Nikanor, hammer when you're ready.

Nice appeal Hoopla. On par with mine to Nik and MS. Perhaps we have both come to the conclusions the other is town because it’s true. The fact a reasonable, cool player like you doesn’t want to consider that possibility speaks volumes to me of your affiliation.

tl:dr—Nik and MS...move your votes to IP. He is the play today. What reason, other than her word, do you have to believe Hoopla’s claim. She has a history of fakeclaiming and she is a very good player. Think it over before you (Nik) hammer Oso. A mislynch = a scum win.

[havingfitz]

Simply put, the only scumteams I can (or could) see was InflatablePie/Oso or havingfitz/Oso, which made Oso the rational choice. It became quite obvious to me that you/fitz weren't scum together, and with a strong town-read on Midnight, it was a rather elementary decision. The only way we fail is if either of those two assumptions is wrong - which I don't think is likely.

Individually

, I think you were the scummiest player, but I couldn't find anyone to realistically pair you with once you received the three votes on yourself, which was a critical point in my decision swinging to Oso. At this stage of the game, you need to abandon behavioural tells and gut feelings if they can't be paired up with someone else. Process of elimination by ruling out potential pairs is a very potent tool in endgame. I'm rather confident it is Oso/fitz, and if I'm right I hope they don't feel too aggrieved, as they were boxed in by circumstances that were difficult to predict. It sucks when that happens as scum.

You conveniently left out the option where we fail because we believed your claim. Agreed...the process of elimination is a very potent tool and there is absolutely no reason for you not to be considered in that process of elimination.

Mod

/all...I am travelling for work this morning and not sure what my internet options will be. I expect I'll find a way to access but just in case I don't...

I will have limited access until Friday evening GMT.

[havingfitz]

With that in mind, possible combos FMPOV with fake PGO claim and therefore no concerns about a draw:

Since a fakeclaim by hoopla would indicate she was scum I will only look at combos involving her:

Oso + Hoopla -- ruled out due to Hoopla passing on the IP vote in what would have secured a win for Hoopla + Oso.
MS + Hoopla -- ruled out due to Hoopla passing on the IP vote in what would have secured a win for Hoopla + Oso.
IP + Hoopla -- Only possible option with a PGO fakeclaim.

Just having a quick check in before I take off and noticed a typo...EBWOP:
The second option above should have read:

MS + Hoopla -- ruled out due to Hoopla passing on the IP vote in what would have secured a win for Hoopla + Ms.


And to reiterate!

tl/dr..... the last two scum are either MS and IP (assuming Hoopla’s claim is true) OR IP and Hoopla.

IP is the common denominator in both scenarios. My vote stays on IP and I would urge the remaining townies to follow suit.

[havingfitz]

OK...brief access in a cool pub in BFE. Drinking a Warsteiner and checking to see if the game has been lost. Not yet thankfully.

I guess the "less is more" approach just isn't cutting it anymore .-.

@Fitz:

I have had and still do have opinions in this game, and have stated thus, albeit sometimes somewhat loosely. Yet like most things, they are fickle and change with the winds(posts).

There's one thing I'm most certain on, though, and that is that Hoopla is telling the truth about her PGO claim. I don't think scum would do what she did in her first post like that, for the simple fact that it would probably have backfired more often then not, and wouldn't be that much more optimal then just playing the game as is. Hoopla seems to be a optimal kind of gal to me, and I don't think she'd claim something like that in the beginning because of that. Plus, going against my hatred of Meta, because this seems like one of those times it's needed, I went and checked the games in where she fake claimed, and tbqh I don't feel the same..'air'...about her claim in this one that I felt seeping off those ones in the other games. I feel this one is genuine.

Also, I'd like to ask why the hell other people flipping scum makes me one by association...wtf? From where my point of view is looking at, I don't think that's even possible. Sorry.~

MS...why don't you take your vote off Oso and give your position a rethink. If you are in fact town...think over the different combinations that make sense and give this game the consideration it deserves. What makes you certain Hoopla is telling the truth? Because she says so? Great. That was easy. What is your gut's record btw? How do the combinations work out if I am telling the truth (which I am btw)?

@Hoopla....what does me mentioning MS could be/definitely is/might be/whatever I said be town have to do with it? Things change as new information comes to light or as new probabilities come into view. I am not 100% sure you are scum....but the fact you are not even willing to consider MS and IP as scum leads me to believe you are not considering it because you want this game over and you are IP's partner. From what I have seen of your play I have a good amount of respect for your game (warsteiner speaking) and if you were in fact town, I do not think you would have a blind eye to all the options.

Also...answer this...why at this point in the game should anyone consider your PGO claim any more valid than a town claim? They shouldn't. At this point in the game you are on the same level as all of us...except for Nik. Who you do not want to proclaim 100% town, yet make the point it would be ridiculously unlikley that there would not be a town PR (with or without your claim being valid)...yet you don't give Nik and you the 100% seal of approval.

How many games only have a cop as the lone town PR? Assuming there are no others.

Also...your coming off of my wagon is null as you left it in frustration when the rest of the players began to focus their votes elsewhere.

I stand by my opinion...the lasst two scum are either MS and IP or Hoopla and IP.

IP is the common scum so he needs to go. If you are telling the truth with your claim hoopla then unvote and give it a think.

IP 100% scum. MS or Hoopla even at 50/50.


Back in 24 hrs....fingers crossed.

- Town

[havingfitz]

Since we are still playing it looks like two scum left goes out the window as does my D4 thoughts which were based on a 3 mafia team.

Looks like a make-up of mafia-goon, mafia-RB, SK, Cop and dare I say it....PGO. I'm back on the PGO bandwagon as I doubt there would be no other town aligned role other than the cop facing an SK and a mafia RB.

@Hoopla...I was adament the remaining 2 scum were either you and IP or MS and IP. Disregarding your claim and leaning towards you based on your unwillingness to even consider the MS and IP pairing and the fact that if you were town...you are a good enough player to give all the options consideration. Still not sure why that wasn't the case, but as evidenced by Oso's flip...two of the three of you got D4 wrong.

@IP...why, if I was scum...would I be soooo adament that Oso was town and fight for other options rather than just join the wagon?

FMPOV, scum is IP or MS. Need to go back and look over votes/etc but I am still leaning towards IP based solely on the basis on MS and GP's interactions.

[havingfitz]

@fitz: Because defending a townie makes you look town; simple. Scum know who is what alignment, so they can use that to make themselves seem town by lynching their buddy (bussing) or defending a townie.

And now you're back over to believing Hoopla's claim. AGAIN. It must feel nice to change when it's convenient, eh?

When is changing your mind not convenient? Are we locked in on suspects the moment we start suspecting someone? Do you still think Oso was scum?

And lynching town can get you one step closer to winning when you are scum.

I didn't think Oso was scum based on the pairings I came up with which were based on there being 2 scum left. Not sure what I would have came up with if I had been considering the fact there was only one scum left. That may have put Oso back into consideration for me but it's OBE now. But considering Oso town (which iirc most people were up until D4), even taking my flawed logic into account, is more suspect than voting for town?

If people think there was not scum on Oso's wagon then idk what to say. I know there was since I'm the only one left who wasn't on the Oso wagon.

A no-lynch would make the most sense but is there any reason to think there will be a corresponding NK?

At this time I'm good with a no-lynch or IP vote. I am not thinking MS is scum based on his interactions with GT. With only 2 scum I think it is even less likley MS busses GT so hard.

Soooo...no-lynch or IP. I'll hop on either wagon.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: No lynch

[havingfitz]

I believe I know what I'm doing here.

Vote: fitz

Voting this early in lylo may be dangerous, but I've already come to the conclusion that Hoopla is not scum.

I've already presented what I think is a good case on fitz - even though Oso did not flip scum, fitz was EXTREMELY opposed to Oso's lynch, even though it would eventually happen due to Hoopla's place on the wagon, along with myself and MS switching (Hoopla herself being very influential; Nik's vote was just a matter of him getting in the thread). He knew Oso was town and switching so suddenly would condemn him, so he defended Oso - when Oso flipped town, he could say "I told you so".

I believe I have made other points during the days as well, I'll look back for those if needed. More content/arguing to come later, promise.

Your case sucks because it's based on scum trying to make town look bad. I'm too tired to post any content right now (late night out) but will tomorrow if the game is still on. I'm town Hoopla. If there is anything in IPs 'case' on me that you need clarification on let me know. I'll make my case on him asap. Until then.....VOTE: InflatablePie

[havingfitz]

Busy weekend so posting is at a minimum. Started a reread and am posting some thoughts as I go along.

I see IP is the last person to join the game. The fact the game started on a Friday and his first post was the following Monday isn’t necessarily the scummiest thing in the world; however, the fact that he was active on the site that same weekend and did not even bother with an introductory post or hey…I’ll be commenting soon, is in hindsight..very scummy. Waiting to see how thing are progressing and pick your route.

I find his initial suspicion/vote (post 57) on me interesting as he bases it on the fact I unvoted (like Oso) and points out that this was first brought up by Hoopla. Then a few posts later (#62) he adds meat to his vote with some ridiculous comment about not explaining my unvote further (and btw…at the point of the game that IP has entered…I did have a vote out…on Hoopla). Why do I need to explain an unvote further that is no longer even in effect? He accuses my Hoopla vote of being countervoting (despite the fact I had expressed doubts about the PGO claim pre-Hoopla’s vote on me) and makes no comment about Hoopla’s vote on me made with absolutely zero reason. Then in the very next post (#63) accuses me of trying to blend in because of my unvote (ridiculous) and my ‘BW’ vote on Hoopla….despite the fact he was displaying the same ‘blending in’ with his suspicions of me (initially brought up by Hoopla) and his ‘BW’ vote on me.

tl;dr

- IP is purposefully late to enter the game and finding others suspicious for actions he is committing as well. IP is scum.

---

Further on Hoopla says,

Town doesn't know if I am truthful or not, though. Scum does.

Which provides ample information for early on D1, because scum's natural position will be somewhere from in the middle to pro-policy lynch, because they cannot afford to keep me alive. havingfitz and possibly someone like q21 are good character models for what I expected from scum, and would make delicious D1 lynches (from my perspective).

If at any point in this game I have acted like I’m certain you are truthful I’d like it pointed out to me. Especially on D4 (which I have yet to reread) when under the assumption we were in a 3 scum game and had 2 remaining…you had to be considered. IP on the otherhand with the knowledge your claim was legitimate choose to attack the most townish player in the game (Oso) and cast suspicions on the person who did not think the most townish player in the game was scum. Instead…IP chooses to ignore the people who had just mislynched town. Sure…don’t give me a clean pass, but why ignore (FIPPOV + the realization there is only one scum left in the game) the possibility that either MS or Hoopla are the last scum?

Will continue read and post more later. But feel free to hammer IP at anytime and win the game Hoopla. Also…feel free to ask questions. IP is scum.

[havingfitz]

@Hoopla...I'm in GMT and I'm liable to be on anytime between 2am and 6pm E.S.T. (work and family permitting).

[havingfitz]

I’m still finding time slots to do back reads but few comments on recent posts....

Why is it everytime go into 3-way lylo, the other player needs to repeatedly say PIE IS SCUM and use AtE?

This isn’t relevant to this game...but has this actually occurred? And is this quote also an AtE? How many games have you made it to the last three and were you town or scum in them?

First of all fitz, Day 1 started on a Sunday morning (for me). Now, point out my posting elsewhere on the site. I might have been making quick posts in Furry since that game was the one that had been going on longest at the time. Likewise, I am posting in this one more than my other game(s). Keep in mind that I also have a work schedule (usually a lunch shift or double shift on Sundays), real life plans (although rare) and had 4 games going on at one point during this game. I'm not seeing me entering the game late as a scumtell. =/

I still stand by my comment IP is suspicious in that he was the last person to get into the game despite having posted ~5 times over the weekend (Sat-Sun...not just Sunday). If Hoopla needs links to actual posts you made I can certainly provide them but it is as easy as looking at your post history and checking the dates. It’s ridiculous that you require proof...while keeping the possibility that you did post...when it’s a fact you posted onsite the Saturday and Sunday following the start of this game (which started on a Friday) ...but failed to post in this game until Monday. This IMO is you staying out of the early crossfire and getting your bearing straight on who you can target in alignment with the suspicions of others.

He accuses my Hoopla vote of being countervoting (despite the fact I had expressed doubts about the PGO claim pre-Hoopla’s vote on me)

This is the only part I remember of your accusations right now - you never took a firm stance in that post. You said you were leaning scum, but the way it was phrased, you could have came back to it and said "Hey, I said I wasn't completely sure" and flipped completely, depending on what your options were at the time. I've done that as scum before, iirc, although maybe not in the same situation.

I did take a firm stance towards Hoopla for a good part of D1 and have maintained a certain level of Hoopla suspicion until today. How could I not? All I had was his word. I did not have a firm stance between my RV unvote and Hoopla vote as I needed to consider Hoopla’s PGO claim and whether it was more likely to be scum or town. Having never played with a PGO before, I needed time to determine my position. As different possibilities have come to light I have suspected almost everyone in this game...including Oso. The fact I thought Oso was town on his last day was based on the fact I thought there were still 2 scum left and the different combinations of voting and player interactions FMPOV ruled Oso out. These different combinations did not rule out the other players (IP, MS, or Hoopla).

Have you expressed any suspicions towards Hoopla throughout this game or have you been content to consider him town? And if so...why? Town have no idea Hoopla is telling the truth. Scum would at a minimum know Hoopla wasn’t scum...and therefore be more inclined to believe the claim.

---

Hoopla...good point on the familiarity with 9-2-1 set ups. I do not recall any of my ~20 games being this type of set up hence my train of thought on D4.

[havingfitz]

@IP...I'll concede on the last to post issue. I did not catch that the game actually opened Sunday afternoon.

Also, I think your reply to Hoopla also covers you on the knowledge of a 9-2-1 set up; however, I see Hoopla's reprimand of you for not realizing the game was in mylo actually points to another example of you having knowledge of how the game is set up.

If for some ungodly reason he does not flip scum, I have a feeling I'll get lynched next, since him and I are the two prime suspects today.

Except for the bit about it being mylo. I'm surprised you're this careless to not know there won't be any other lynches if we're wrong today - but then again, Epicmafia solves that riddle.

While town is still under the assumption there is a 3 scum team in the game and we are at 4-2, ie a mislynch = gameover, you lay out a situation where a mislynch doesn't end the game. Despite having just mentioned all of the possibilities (including mylo) a few posts earlier. And your response is basically your play on another site and that you are an idiot. I'm sure you did feel like an idiot after a slip like that.

Also, as I read through...your vote on Oso seemed to be very convenient. It comes after Osotown provides his analysis of the game and puts you at L-1 and after you have mentioned several times how much you believe Oso is town and can not see him being scum.

Also...I continue to see you cozying up to Hoopla throughout the game. With the realization that (barring her lynch, which had not gathered any traction throughout the game) you would need Hoopla's vote on whomever you faced in Lylo there would be more incentive for you to align yourself with her than be continually suspicious (aka uncertain).

Last, while lamenting the fact you are called scum everytime you go to Lylo (AtE) may not have any bearing on this game or your alignment...I find it interesting that you bring it up when the only other time you have been in this situation you actually were scum. So maybe people only call you scum in Lylo when you are scum?

[havingfitz]

Oh, and it's just funny how you suspected Hoopla, then thought she was town on the massclaim day (Gwyn lynch day too IIRC), then thought she was scum when you were sure it couldn't be Oso (and agreed with Hoopla on MS's interactions with Gwyn - lol), then switched back at mylo.

I don't recall ever proclaiming Hoopla town. I may have been resigned to put her in a town category at different points of the game (such as now) based on how strong my suspicions of others were...but until yesterday I have never discounted the possibility she was scum.

Again like I stated, you said that Hoopla would be more suspicious if TBM flipped town here.

What is your point? I'm basically saying that Hoopla's voting the same person I am gives me pause for thought but does not completely rule her out in my mind due to the potential for bussing (assuming TBM had been scum).

By the way, this post saying he finds Hoopla to be town, which goes against what he was talking about above also has what I believe to be an unnecessary comment that caught my eye: "TBM and Furry on Nikanor (may they rest in peace) ". Might be nothing major to some, but it's in the same vein of congratulating the doctor in my eyes.

I don't recall calling Hoopla town. But whether I called Hoopla town or not...what does my indecision about her alignment indicate? Other than I was undecided throughout the game on whether or not to believe the PGO claim? If my rest in peace comment comes across as scummy I don't know what to tell you. Just stating the obvious.

Oh, and again looking back through ISO, this is more of fitz deflecting suspicion back on to an attacker, except in a much harder and more obvious way this time.

Why is this a problem? I tend to suspect people who vote others (myself included) without providing any rationale whatsoever.

Also...as the topic of game set up tells has been on the agenda today...

This post where you mention an 8:3:1 set up as being only an assumed set up is quite insightful. Considering you made it weeks before Hoopla lays out the odds against the game being a 9:2:1 set up which you provide as the reason (ie defense) for questions Hoopla brings up in Post 654 and the basis for your knowledge of that set up. Ie. IP only knew of the 9:2:1 set up because Hoopla mentioned it....even though he (IP) alludes to a set up other than 8:3:1 much earlier in the game.

Whereas I'm still in 3 scum land weeks later and up until the Oso mislynch does not result in endgame.

tl:dr

- IP has shown an understanding of the game set up and a willingness to believe/pander to Hoopla throughout the game whereas I have been off the mark for the majority of the game and been uncertain of anyone's alignment except for Oso on D4...especially Hoopla's who I have suspected thoughout the game until D5/6. I have also consistently operated under the assumption there were three scum until it was blatantly obvious that wasn't the case (ie D5).

[havingfitz]

Hey fitz, are you online now?

Off and on. ?

[havingfitz]

No vote here.

[havingfitz]

That said...why risk a self vote and not just vote IP. If you were wrong and I was scum....voting yourself would have had the same result as voting IP.
If you have been playing us you have gone the extra (unnecessary) mile here on Day 6.

Now get rid of that self vote!

[havingfitz]

I must say Hoopla...after ~8 hours of this self vote gambit I'm tempted to vote you as this feels like some sort of mindscrew.

However; Since you've had the chance since yesterday to end the game if you are scum, I'll still assume you aren't scum and that your computer was struck by lightening right after you self voted.

I hope you were not injured in the lightening strike and are able to crawl to the nearest internet access point before IP gets off work or wakes up, etc., and comes in to finish town off.

[havingfitz]

Whew....only had time to do a quick read this morning before work and what a surprise that was.

As hard as I tried to get Hoopla lynched D1 I'm obviously glad it worked out in the end. Luckily no one else really supported her lynch.

@Hoopla...why didn't you just vote IP after I no voted you at L-1? Were you still unsure or did you just want to make a grand exit? What if IP had hammered while you were offline/sleeping and yabba ended twilight before you had a chance to vengekill? BTW...a bomb/vengeful townie is not a role I have ever played with so that never entered my mind. Waiting ~8 hours for Hoopla to unvote last night was definitely interesting.

@Oso...how was IPs comment the day you died so telling?

One of the most interesting games I've been in. Good job Hoopla...many thanks to yabba for taking the time to mod and create flavah...and I told you...IP is SCUM!