Mini 973: "Bawhston" Brawl (WHAT A WIN!)

[InflatablePie]

If for some ungodly reason he does not flip scum, I have a feeling I'll get lynched next, since him and I are the two prime suspects today. Also, Hoopla says if I am town, then fitz is scum; I assume her logic is working the other way around as well, so I know one person who would vote me in that case.

But that would leave us with a team of MS/Oso FMPOV.

[havingfitz]

For what it's worth...below is the number of times the players in the 2nd column mention other 'suspects' across each row. This is only up to the last lynch (though the post totals are for the entire game). Ex. GP mentions IP 3 times, Slepz/dsister/MS 17, Hoopla 7 times, etc. I would assume unless there was some serious bussing going on that scum would tend to avoid scum. I included Hoopla myself to be objective.

FMPOV the 2 remaining scum are within IP, Oso and MS. I know I was on to MS yesterday, but looking at these numbers lead me to think MS might not be scum. Everyone is bringing him up fairly evenly. I think Oso and IP basically avoiding each other the entire game is telling coupled with GP's lack of attention their way.



I would prefer an IP lynch before I would an Oso lynch...but that is where I currently think the remaining scum are.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

If for some ungodly reason he does not flip scum, I have a feeling I'll get lynched next, since him and I are the two prime suspects today. Also, Hoopla says if I am town, then fitz is scum; I assume her logic is working the other way around as well, so I know one person who would vote me in that case.

But that would leave us with a team of MS/Oso FMPOV.

The point I was trying to make, was:

What does it matter what he flips? How would that be indicative of

my

alignment in any way shape or form?

...Or am I missing something here?

[Oso]

Whether we are in a 4:2 situation right now or not, I think it is the smart play to assume that we are. Worst case scenario the whole thing.

Right now, I see it this way.

Nikanor-Confirmed Town.

Myself (yes, I am putting myself in here), Hoopla and Midnight Sorrow in 'Unconfirmed, but most probably town'. I'd be surprised if Hoopla or MS flipped scum at this point.

That leaves the remaining scum, at least in my opinion, in the Inflatable Pie and/or havingfitz pair. Simply by a process of elimination.

But we have enough time here to take our time. So I agree that doing a speed vote/lynch without discussion is a bad thing.

[edit before submit, havingfitz posted during composition]
@ havingfitz. To answer your concern about my lack of mentioning IP as a scum candidiate, until I eliminated those I had reason to think might be town, IP hasn't really shown on my radar all game. The only reason he is there now is because of elimination. Nikanor,Hoopla and MS all are registering to me as town.

The reason I voted Gwynplaine yesterday was because I had changed my focus after blowing the call on TBM so badly, I quit scumhunting so much and seriously started looking for folks who might still be town. Aside from a very few posts (one of which I quoted) he hadn't really done much to help town.

Nik is a confirmed cop, at least from my thinking, Hoopla has been contributing very well almost the whole game and it seems she is legitimate town doing it. Midnight Sorrow (via slepz) gets a 'gut feeling' town stamp from me. Elimination leaves you and IP. If we had more candidates, I doubt IP would be very high on my list even now.

[InflatablePie]

The point I was trying to make, was:

What does it matter what he flips? How would that be indicative of

my

alignment in any way shape or form?

...Or am I missing something here?

Nik is "confirmed town", Hoopla is town, Oso is most likely town. So that leaves you and fitz. I would like fitz lynched today. He will flip scum, then we lynch you. Sound good?


No one answered me, so I will repeat myself: what are everyone's thoughts of a no lynch here? On one hand we have to no lynch eventually and this might narrow down suspects, but on the other hand we lose an opinion (and probably confirmed town in Nik).

[Nikanor]

No lynch is bad. I enjoy living.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

^lmao xD

[Midnight's Sorrow]

Nik is "confirmed town", Hoopla is town, Oso is most likely town. So that leaves you and fitz. I would like fitz lynched today.

He will flip scum

, then we lynch you. Sound good?

Sounds too much like a scum slip...or my eyes need checked. One of the two. -shrugs-

I very much think that both of you are scum. You more likely. Either one sounds good.

No lynch is bad I think. If only because I don't think it matters that we go one more night like that. The scum will most likely kill nik, and we will be none the wiser from it, because we quote on quote "already knew it". So yeah, No lynch is a bad idea.

[InflatablePie]

Just wondering.

Not a scum slip by any means. I'm just confident, that's all.

[havingfitz]

Having said that, this worries me too - a post by fitz early on Day 3 before the massclaim;

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element. TBM and Furry on Nikanor (may they rest in peace) coupled with the quick vote on TBM by Nik before TBM could claim...and not providing any case on TBM after waiting for me to provide mine.....has Nikanor atop my scum list.

Vote Nikanor

Nikanor is virtually confirmed town now, and at the time was probably considered a main suspect - which is a double-edged sword really. Despite looking as if scum are forcing a mislynch on a townie, it's also understandable when you consider the general suspicion around Nikanor at the time. I think the key to this post is how he disregards suspicion of me, and hastily pushes elsewhere, as if the mind just suddenly changes so liberally.

I already addressed this yesterday:

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element.

You could have assumed this yesterday. Why did this sudden change of heart come about today?

I didn't really give you much thought yesterday as I carried my D1 vote/suspicions over to D2 up through his lynch.

As I said...it was not a sudden change on D3. You only came up once iirc as an afterthought on D2 as the focus for most people, including yourself, was TBM. After two completed days tbh your claim had faded a bit due to the scummy play of others. It's still in the back of my mind and I'll be pissed if you wind up scum but I'd rather focus on 2 out of 3 (IP, Oso, MS) than 2 out of 4.

---

Question though: if we're in MyLo, would a no lynch today be a plausible idea at all? If it really is 4:2, then a no lynch would eliminate one player, making things easier to narrow down. It would most likely be Nikanor (iirc, everyone but Nik/Hoopla claimed vanilla, meaning no doc), but with a roleblocker alive our cop's powers are limited. Plus, if we are somehow in 9:2:1, that means right now, we have 5:1 - if we lynch scum, we then have to no lynch to lylo. Either way, we have to vote no lynch, the question is if we do it today or tomorrow. If Hoopla's theory is correct (or even if it isn't), it seems the smarter move to NL today, but I'm not sure how you guys treat MyLo here on MS. Of course, we can still scumhunt today and attempt to peg scum, so let's continue.

How does this logic help anyone other than scum? If we no lynch and the assumption is Nik would be the NK, then we are still in the position of having lynch scum from myself, IP, Oso, and MS...but without a confirmed townie to help in the hunt. Agree NL might be the way to go tomorrow but it gets us no where today (IMO).

[InflatablePie]

I have more experience on EM than in forum mafia, if that explains things. <_<

[Hoopla]

If for some ungodly reason he does not flip scum, I have a feeling I'll get lynched next, since him and I are the two prime suspects today.

Except for the bit about it being mylo. I'm surprised you're this careless to not know there won't be any other lynches if we're wrong today - but then again, Epicmafia solves that riddle.

[Hoopla]

I already addressed this yesterday:

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element.

You could have assumed this yesterday. Why did this sudden change of heart come about today?

I didn't really give you much thought yesterday as I carried my D1 vote/suspicions over to D2 up through his lynch.

As I said...it was not a sudden change on D3. You only came up once iirc as an afterthought on D2 as the focus for most people, including yourself, was TBM. After two completed days tbh your claim had faded a bit due to the scummy play of others. It's still in the back of my mind and I'll be pissed if you wind up scum but I'd rather focus on 2 out of 3 (IP, Oso, MS) than 2 out of 4.

Yeah, I know it's sort of a rehashed question. I suppose my point was this time that I'd unearthed a better motive for you to do this - and that was because if scum-you could get a mislynch Day 3, you wouldn't need to worry about the PGO problem any more.

I don't think it's a major point, mostly something that is playing on my mind.

[Hoopla]

Hey Oso, would you say at the moment you more favour a havingfitz lynch?

[Oso]

@Hoopla. At the moment, I'd say yes.

I'm currently re-reading both fitz and Inflatable Pie in iso and then referencing those posts to posts that prompted their responses so that might change as I work my way through that. It's taking a while and I have confused myself several times as I have about half a hundred tabs open at the same time.

But I can guarantee, barring some major, unforseen change, I am not going to vote Nikanor, you or MS. So it is down to either fitz or IP.

[InflatablePie]

If for some ungodly reason he does not flip scum, I have a feeling I'll get lynched next, since him and I are the two prime suspects today.

Except for the bit about it being mylo. I'm surprised you're this careless to not know there won't be any other lynches if we're wrong today - but then again, Epicmafia solves that riddle.

Hey, I have a few games on and offsite under my belt, I just used to play EM from about September to March-ish. And haven't reached a mylo situation in any of my games, so...

My confusion in

that

quote is just me being an idiot. ._.

[yabbaguy]

Despite it being typically closed, the mob has found a way up to the top of The Hancock's 60-story high observation deck. Someone may be about to literally meet their downfall.

That sounds like a stupid catchphrase for a game show.

Vote Count:

Not Voting: havingfitz, Hoopla, InflatablePie, Midnight's Sorrow, Nikanor, Oso

Deadline: 7/9 @ 8 PM GMT-4. No Lynch occurs if this elapses.

[havingfitz]

I don't have any reason to not have my vote out. As mentioned in my player references post I have dropped MS to the bottom of my three suspects (IP, OsO, MS) and as I believe Nikanor and am believing Hoopla....

VOTE: InflatablePie

[yabbaguy]

Sending massprod (sans havingfitz). A preemptive strike for some, but seeing as its 3 hours early at most, and I won't be awake by then, I'm doing it now.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

Vote:IP

I think this needs to happen. D:

[Nikanor]

Oh man I got prodded.
I don't think the IP lynch "needs to happen". Why do you think that, MS?

[Oso]

Prod received. Weekend busier than I thought it would be. Will post sometime Monday at the latest.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

I say "I think this needs to happen", becuase in my PoV, its either IP or HavinFitz for our scum.

Oso has played a very Pro-Town game to me, and I can't find much to make me suspect him of being scum.

You claimed Cop nik, which considering the circumstances sounds believable to me. So your most likely

not

scum.

And I have no idea what kind of player would have the balls to claim PGO in their first post in the entire game, except a Townie. Something that makes me believe that Hoola is telling the truth and therefore not scum. Has played a pretty Pro-Town game as well.

So you can probably see why I am voting IP with this Right?

[InflatablePie]

Prod received. Whoops.

I think Nik meant, why are you voting me over fitz, since everything's narrowed down to me/you/fitz (and technically Oso).

Could be wrong, though.

[Hoopla]

Sending massprod (sans havingfitz). A preemptive strike for some, but seeing as its 3 hours early at most, and I won't be awake by then, I'm doing it now.

I stated I would have limited access until Tuesday, but I have a little bit of time now for a post or two. I'd still prefer to wait until then so I can become surer in my opinions, but InflatablePie is likely where I would rest my vote.