Mini 961: Insane Asylum II: GAME OVER :O!

[farside22]

magnus: Do you think SC is scum at this point? I notice you talked in your last post about questioning his claim. Do you think or have you seen scum claim and then mess up on a claim before?

[Haylen]

@Haylen: Are you voting for SC because you believe he honestly slipped?
Have you ever seen someone scum slip when claiming before?

Yes. I wouldn't be voting for him otherwise.

I've slipped up myself as scum when claiming, many times on IRC if that counts.

[farside22]

@Haylen: Are you voting for SC because you believe he honestly slipped?
Have you ever seen someone scum slip when claiming before?

Yes. I wouldn't be voting for him otherwise.

I've slipped up myself as scum when claiming, many times on IRC if that counts.

Somehow I don't doubt that.
You have anyone else on your scum list? If so who?

[Glork]

Unvote
Vote: Ellibereth

Please claim, Elli. You are now at L-2.

FoS: Glork

Start convincing me that you're not trying to get as many people as possible to claim if you don't want me to vig you.

Not as many as possible. Two. There are some things I'm working out about this game, and so the claims are helpful.

You're more than welcome to try to vig me if you'd like. I don't think either of us can guarantee that it will work.



I am currently considering the possibility that the scums have an Insane Doctor who does their kills, and that Elli is a Mafia Nurse who will do the killing once his scumbuddy is dead and gone.

The implications of such a belief are a little awkward, though. I'm not sure if that belies a two-person scumgroup, if there's a Backup Nurse or something (very unlikely, IMO), or if it's possible to put the scums in a position where they won't actually be able to kill anyone.




One thing is certain. I do believe that Coug thinks he's a Vig, and I do believe that Elli is a Nurse of some kind.

Unvote

while I think.

In the meantime, Tar's "lock on" bothers me. Maybe it's because I've only bothered to breadcrumb a very minor aspect of my role, and I see his post as an excuse to lash out at someone who he can paint as being scum for what he will pose as suboptimal town play.

[UncertainKitten]

The ???th "Not Found" Vote Count

"404 Not Found"

Mod Note: This votecount could not be accessed.

1. magnus_orion (0)
2. StrangerCoug (5): SocioPath, Iecerint, DrippingGoofball, Ellibereth, Haylen
3. SocioPath (1): Yosarian2
4. farside22 (0)
5. Glork (0)
6. Yosarian2 (0)
7. Tarhalindur (1): Dramonic
8. DrippingGoofball (0)
9. Haylen (0)
10. Iecerint (0)
11. Dramonic (0)
12. Ellibereth (4): Tarhalindur, farside22, magnus_orion, StrangerCoug

Not Voting (1): Glork

Ellibereth is at L-3
StrangerCoug is at L-2

Prod Clock (New): Off
Players still needing to respond to prod: No One

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is in 4 days at 3:00 PM EST, Monday, May 24th, 2010

[Glork]

By the way, Coug, slinging around threats to Vig people is probably not a good idea. The more you do it, the more likely it is that someone is going to claim to try to save themselves from your prospective (and possibly sane) Vig attempt. So while you're giving me a telling off for pushing for a second claim, I don't think you're considering the implications of your own threats and requests.

[UncertainKitten]

Dramonic has been prodded. I am pleasantly surprised to see he is the ONLY one that needed to be prodded

[dramonic]

Activity on my part will pick up once I'm done with my last final!
(which is tomorrow morning)

[Haylen]

Good Luck, Dram! I have an end of year exam tomorrow too.

Have a good Luck bite

*bites*

[Tarhalindur]

Unvote
Vote: Ellibereth

Please claim, Elli. You are now at L-2.

FoS: Glork

Start convincing me that you're not trying to get as many people as possible to claim if you don't want me to vig you.

Not as many as possible. Two. There are some things I'm working out about this game, and so the claims are helpful.

You're more than welcome to try to vig me if you'd like. I don't think either of us can guarantee that it will work.



I am currently considering the possibility that the scums have an Insane Doctor who does their kills, and that Elli is a Mafia Nurse who will do the killing once his scumbuddy is dead and gone.

The implications of such a belief are a little awkward, though. I'm not sure if that belies a two-person scumgroup, if there's a Backup Nurse or something (very unlikely, IMO), or if it's possible to put the scums in a position where they won't actually be able to kill anyone.




One thing is certain. I do believe that Coug thinks he's a Vig, and I do believe that Elli is a Nurse of some kind.

Unvote

while I think.

In the meantime, Tar's "lock on" bothers me. Maybe it's because I've only bothered to breadcrumb a very minor aspect of my role, and I see his post as an excuse to lash out at someone who he can paint as being scum for what he will pose as suboptimal town play.

Let me put it to you this way, Glork: I'm a Day Mason (unconfirmed - otherwise it would be broken, considering I have FOUR mason partners). Ellibereth is one of those partners, and failed to mention that he is a Mason.

I also doubt the Nurse claim - it's slightly more plausible than normal, but in that case we might have to deal with a scum group with multiple kills per night. (Of course, if my guess that the setup is Dethy-inspired holds up...)

[Iecerint]

I'm surprised that SC wasn't hammered in the interim there. It probably would have appeared relatively blameless. May point to scum already being on the wagon, or to SC being scum.

[magnus_orion]

magnus: Do you think SC is scum at this point? I notice you talked in your last post about questioning his claim. Do you think or have you seen scum claim and then mess up on a claim before?

I don't think I've ever seen scum mess up their own claim before. Nothing comes to memory. I've seen lies be revealed by word choice (like claiming to be a "one-shot vig", when someone else was a "one-bullet vig").

I'm not liking coug at all right now, but for some odd reason, I feel I should be hesitant. Let's call it gut, I guess. (if I were to have to assign a reason to it, I'd guess that it feels too unnatural a slip-up, and the wagon built too quickly)

However, I am really disliking the "nk-immune" part of the claim. Not the claiming of it, but it just sounds too... "guaranteed", I suppose. In this game, I don't like the idea of
"all kills that target player X fail", because the game is inherently twisted, and that's extremely definite.
I also have reason to cast doubt it from my own role, but its not absolute and I'd like to avoid further partial claiming.

I didn't notice Eliberith's claim until glork started talking about it, and I'm not sure about the nurse claim. Something bugs me about that too.

Maybe I'm over-speculating, but I'd think that there would only be nurses in this game if there were not any doctors at all. Also, it seems to be phrased weird. "The sanity of the first doctor that dies"

Taken at face value (which, come to think of it, may not be the best idea), this implies the existence of multiple other doctors I'm inclined to believe that scum aren't the only players that can kill, though I'm not necessarily saying I feel confident in coug's claim. However, if the possibility of multiple deaths in one night exists, which seems reasonable to me that there could be multiple doctor deaths in the same night, if there are multiple doctors. If this were indeed the case, it would create an issue in the event that several doctors were to die simultaneously. Perhaps UK would use some resolution system to determine who died "first", and beyond that some sort of "first-come, first-serve" sort of thing, but it still seems odd.

*shrug* I want to give this more thought, tbh, but those are my feeling as of now.

[farside22]

I'm surprised that SC wasn't hammered in the interim there. It probably would have appeared relatively blameless. May point to scum already being on the wagon, or to SC being scum.

What about what Tar just claimed? Why would someone claim nurse but not claim mason?

[Iecerint]

He simulposted with me, so I hadn't seen it. They might do so because the masons haven't been outed yet. Is Tar implying that the masons all claimed to one another already or something?

Since Tar's statement came so far after SC started being at L-1, I don't think that affects the plausibility of my statement.

[Iecerint]

Also, since MO already posted, Percy messed up his fakeclaim in that Nouns mafia game I already posted.

[farside22]

He simulposted with me, so I hadn't seen it. They might do so because the masons haven't been outed yet. Is Tar implying that the masons all claimed to one another already or something?

Since Tar's statement came so far after SC started being at L-1, I don't think that affects the plausibility of my statement.

I see it differently. I feel scum are on SC's wagon out of fear at this point and are pushing for the lynch.
When I see two people jump at voting SC for saying I'm NK immune to being questioned by magnus and stating I'm worried about being killed it's damning and I think Haylen is the only one I can understand where she is coming from.
I need to see something I have a gut feeling about something.

[Glork]

I'm not liking coug at all right now, but for some odd reason, I feel I should be hesitant. Let's call it gut, I guess. (if I were to have to assign a reason to it, I'd guess that it feels too unnatural a slip-up, and the wagon built too quickly)

You should trust your gut here. Coug's behavior is a pretty clear indicator that he believes his role. The hyperaggressive kill threats, while not generally a good idea, are a pretty distinct protown tell. I don't see myself wanting to lynch Coug at any point, unless it becomes apparent that there is an SK in the game. Then I will reconsider.


Elli, please ask the mod what happens if two doctors die in the same phase (for example, if two doctors are killed N1). Report your findings to us.



There is a very good chance that, at the height of the CougWagon, at least two scums were voting him. I like Iece's reasoning on why he didn't get hammered. That nudges the Socio pendulum back towards the "scum" side for me once again.

[Iecerint]

I see it differently. I feel scum are on SC's wagon out of fear at this point and are pushing for the lynch.

I think that entails seeing it the same way. ^^

Though I am leaning slightly toward the alternative possibility.

[farside22]

I see it differently. I feel scum are on SC's wagon out of fear at this point and are pushing for the lynch.

I think that entails seeing it the same way. ^^

Though I am leaning slightly toward the alternative possibility.

Sorry. I was reading your view as SC scum and scum on his wagon already.
Why are you still voting on SC?

[Iecerint]

There are three possibilities:

1. SC was not hammered because he is scum and his scumfriends want to lynch Elli.
2. SC was not hammered because there are already too many scum on his wagon, and they didn't want a full house, or there was already a full house. (So, 2+ scum on the wagon.)
3. SC was not hammered because people just sort of weren't online. (A reach on its own IMO)

I'm still voting SC because I think "1" is simplest given vibe + some behavior inconsistent with his claim. The only thing going for "2" is that he had crumbed vig a bit.

[Iecerint]

PLZ SHOW THE ERROR OF MY WAYS.

[Glork]

PLZ SHOW THE ERROR OF MY WAYS.

Coug's behavior is a pretty clear indicator that he believes his role. The hyperaggressive kill threats, while not generally a good idea, are a pretty distinct protown tell. I don't see myself wanting to lynch Coug at any point, unless it becomes apparent that there is an SK in the game. Then I will reconsider.

luv u

[Iecerint]

So your argument is that the crumbs outweigh everything else?

[Glork]

Not the crumbs themselves. Scums falsecrumb enough that it's silly to put absolute faith in them.

Coug's "convince me that you're not just claimfishing or I will vig you" post is really what convinced me. In my experience (no, I can't cite specific examples of players/games, this was ages ago), when a player claims Vig and then starts flinging threats, he is protown. I think that Coug's threat to me was very genuine, so he really believes that he can Vig. Whether he can get through the sanity mechanics of this game and actually kill me is another matter entirely, but when he threatened me, he definitely believed himself capable of killing me.

[Glork]

EBWOP:

he definitely believed himself capable of

vigging

me.

Fixed.