Mini 961: Insane Asylum II: GAME OVER :O!

[Iecerint]

Scum are experts at that, too, ye know.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: Before your fix.

[UncertainKitten]

The Fourteenth "Oh Desire" Vote Count

"OH DEEEEESSSSSIIIIIIIYAAAAAAAAAAAAAH~"

Mod Note: What? Jimang is fabulously insane. There is no other explanation.
This is proof. I don't know why this exists but it is astounding.

1. magnus_orion (0)
2. StrangerCoug (5): SocioPath, Iecerint, DrippingGoofball, Ellibereth, Haylen
3. SocioPath (1): Yosarian2
4. farside22 (0)
5. Glork (0)
6. Yosarian2 (0)
7. Tarhalindur (1): Dramonic
8. DrippingGoofball (0)
9. Haylen (0)
10. Iecerint (0)
11. Dramonic (0)
12. Ellibereth (4): Tarhalindur, farside22, magnus_orion, StrangerCoug,

Not Voting (1): Glork

Ellibereth is at L-3
StrangerCoug is at L-2

Prod Clock (New): Off
Players still needing to respond to prod: No One

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is in 4 days at 3:00 PM EST, Monday, May 24th, 2010

[magnus_orion]

so, iecerint, you think number 1 of your possibilities is most likely.

1. SC was not hammered because he is scum and his scumfriends want to lynch Elli.

However, while this justifies your vote of SC, it also begs the question: who are SC's scumfriends that want to lynch Eli?
Me? Farside22? Tarhalindur?
Your implicit suspicions are more intriguing than your overt one atm.

[Iecerint]

UK, I thought you were talking about this.

@ MO, "want to lynch Elli" doesn't necessarily imply "are currently voting Elli." Given that "1" is correct, my best guess for scumfriends would be Tar and dram. I'm not convinced that that kind of speculation is very productive before a flip, though.

Uh...no

[magnus_orion]

Oh, don't worry, forcing people to take positions and define them well is very productive, especially when it really matters.

"want to lynch Elli" doesn't necessarily imply "are currently voting Elli."

Ok, why not? Why would scum avoid voting to lynch Elli at this point?

my best guess for scumfriends would be Tar and dram.

Wonderful. Dram is bussing then?

Interesting. Please, explain these reads in greater detail. I do believe you haven't commented on tar since game start. Have you commented on dramonic at all?

[magnus_orion]

ebwop: just realized dramonic replaced slicey. Practically irrelevant though, iecerint hasn't talked about slicey either. My request for explanation remains, although I do acknowledge the tar-vote by slicey doesn't mean much.

[Iecerint]

If it's a condition where a given player being scum meant that there weren't enough scumfriend-able players to make a scumteam (as you implied), then it is a decent exercise. I have illustrated that that condition is not met IMO. Going the extra step and trying to independently evaluate all probable n by x by x scumteams without flip information is unlikely to be very efficient, though. I was just preempting you.

Tar voted SP, then moved to SB(=Elli). He only HFoS'd SC when SC followed him to SB upon being put under pressure for the SP suspicion. This is highly consistent with Tar-SC scumfriends IMO.

Slicey/dram is a non-entity slot, so no, I haven't said anything about him. He's the 3rd scumfriend by PoE, mostly. The Tar vote is RVS-tier. Also, while it's true that dram's activity was about half as great the 19th as before (consistent with having an exam), he still managed to post 10 times in 6 distinct games. So I could see his lower priority in this game being an attempt to finish with his vote on a scumfriend without being implicated in either legitimately bussing a scumfriend or contributing to a mislynch. But that's a weaker proposition -- his inclusion is mainly PoE.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: Looks like one of those games is one he's modding. So that makes it 9 posts in 5 games as a player.

[farside22]

Glork: If you believe SC is what he claims why are you defering back to SP lynch. There is a split wagon going on.

[magnus_orion]

If it's a condition where a given player being scum meant that there weren't enough scumfriend-able players to make a scumteam (as you implied), then it is a decent exercise. I have illustrated that that condition is not met IMO. Going the extra step and trying to independently evaluate all probable n by x by x scumteams without flip information is unlikely to be very efficient, though. I was just preempting you.

I'm not sure I follow, the use of the word "it" in the first sentence is confusing me.

Tar voted SP, then moved to SB(=Elli). He only HFoS'd SC when SC followed him to SB upon being put under pressure for the SP suspicion. This is highly consistent with Tar-SC scumfriends IMO.

what leads you to form this opinion?
You present his vote on SP as a strong statement, when, in fact, he said he was unsure, and simply going with "the best lead at the time" (or something along those lines).

Slicey/dram is a non-entity slot, so no, I haven't said anything about him. He's the 3rd scumfriend by PoE, mostly. The Tar vote is RVS-tier. Also, while it's true that dram's activity was about half as great the 19th as before (consistent with having an exam), he still managed to post 10 times in 6 distinct games. So I could see his lower priority in this game being an attempt to finish with his vote on a scumfriend without being implicated in either legitimately bussing a scumfriend or contributing to a mislynch. But that's a weaker proposition -- his inclusion is mainly PoE.

Excellent. I was worried that you were just going to say he was lurking, and you basically just picked a lurker at random, but if it was process of elimination, I would love to see the details.

[Glork]

Glork: If you believe SC is what he claims why are you defering back to SP lynch. There is a split wagon going on.

I'm not deferring to a Socio lynch. I'm trying to figure out exactly where I want to go with this. Why do you ask?

[farside22]

I had assumed by this comment you were deffering back to SP as a possilbe lynch for the day

There is a very good chance that, at the height of the CougWagon, at least two scums were voting him. I like Iece's reasoning on why he didn't get hammered. That nudges the Socio pendulum back towards the "scum" side for me once again.

After your switch to Elli being at L-2 to claim I'm just watching which way you go and if you are going to push for another claim by the end of the day.
Also Are you basing this view on SP because how he's played or do you believe there is an Elli/SP connection?

[Iecerint]

So, if I were like GLORK IS SCUM, but it was very improbable that there were enough people to pair with Glork to make a traditionally-sized scumteam because of various things, then talking about scumfriends D1 would be a legitimate exercise to indicate that Glork was probably non-scum. But I've pointed out plausible SC scumfriends, so that condition is not met.

Uh, that's a pretty default reading of his play IMO given SCum. Also, I don't think I really present his vote for SP as a strong statement; I just state it. Alsoalso, I could just as easily ask why Tar lampshading wagoning and so forth (implicitly) makes SC-Tar less probable. I don't think it affects it either way.

I didn't do anything too scientific. I did it all after you asked me to (i.e. in a few minutes). This was the whole process:

1. I doubt anyone would be bussing when an SB is still in sight. (A possible exception is Haylen, who joined the lynch just after SC's dubious pratfall, but this was still meh.) So I decided to look elsewhere.
2. Then I looked at the SB wagon and ruled out you and farside because you have +town points atm.
3. Tar didn't have any town points, so I glanced through his iso and found that it was highly consistent with SC-Tar.
4. dram remained. Lonely vote on a presumed scumfriend and lower priority on this game from him sealed the deal.

HOWEVER, I gotta say that I totally forgot about the Leech/Yos slot. He wasn't on UK's VC on this page, which is what I used to evaluate players. So that's also a possibility. Haven't checked him.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: 2nd paragraph is about Tar. When an SB

lynch

is still in sight. Edits didn't go through.

[Glork]

I had assumed by this comment you were deffering back to SP as a possilbe lynch for the day

There is a very good chance that, at the height of the CougWagon, at least two scums were voting him. I like Iece's reasoning on why he didn't get hammered. That nudges the Socio pendulum back towards the "scum" side for me once again.

After your switch to Elli being at L-2 to claim I'm just watching which way you go and if you are going to push for another claim by the end of the day.
Also Are you basing this view on SP because how he's played or do you believe there is an Elli/SP connection?

If I were feeling an Elli/Socio connection, I'd just be voting Elli. My suspicions of Socio are due to his own posting, especially with the relatively recent revelation that Coug is probably protown. I was merely commenting that he's still on my radar.

I don't know where I stand. I know that probably sounds silly, especially coming from me, but I don't have a good grasp of who is scum. I've identified about four people whose play seems demonstrably protown, but that's not helping me arrive at a lynch decision for today.

It doesn't help that the Dram slot, and the Leech/Yos slot has done nothing, and that the Haylen slot -- while she has posted since replacing in -- has failed to make an impression on me one way or another.

[farside22]

While Haylen isn't giving me OMG she is town vibes like others. She was one of the few I felt best explain her vote and reasoning I found more sound then Elli or DGB. It's the one of the big reason's for me that I'm not jumping to SC.
At worst I could see SC as a serial killer with that type of role but more then likely people will be looking at him in so far as kills.
At best SC is what he claims and scum are scared of a vig in the game.
Also there is only 1 game where I saw scum given a vig in a game and that was pyp. Despite RB concerns and WIFOM aside that SC could use if scum I'm not overjoyed at those on the SC wagon.

[magnus_orion]

But I've pointed out plausible SC scumfriends, so that condition is not met.

Then, right now, you believe that the most likely scum group (if SC is scum), right now, is,
Tar-SC-Dram

correct?
Your top suspects, then, are
SC
Tar
Dram
in some order?

[Iecerint]

If SCSK, SCSK would be dead already.

If scum is afraid of vigSC, that scum is probably Haylen, unless you're implying they picked up on the crumbs.

[Iecerint]

@ MO, no, positing connections and positing "top suspects" are totally different things. For example, I would not support a lynch on either Tar or dram unless someone produced a principled case and showed why they were scummy independent of SC. That's why I don't think building a house of cards with scum connections D1 is a very productive exercise.

[Iecerint]

I'd probably maybe support a lynch on Elli if it came down to it, even though I've defended he and SB all game except for just after he replaced in. I suppose he's my other "top suspect" as such.

Also, I have a crush on Elli and consequently have a slightly irrational desire to refrain from killing him.

[magnus_orion]

But "yes" to the first question?

[Iecerint]

Having just read through Leech, yep, I think that's most plausible given SCum. Namely, Leech and Tar and SC all voting SP is a bit extreme.

[farside22]

If SCSK, SCSK would be dead already.

If scum is afraid of vigSC, that scum is probably Haylen, unless you're implying they picked up on the crumbs.

We do have the lurkers who haven't voted or are replacing in the game and haven't said anything either.

[Iecerint]

^ That's @ the first bit, I guess?