Open 212--Hard Boiled Mafia (Game Over)

[Confucius]

Disagree. If she was feeling too pressured to play, her last post would not have addressed everything against her. The fact that she responded to everything while requesting replacement in the same breath tells me that she knows she can respond, but that she just doesn't have time right now to do so.

Assuming we don't have any No-Lynches, here is best case to worst case scenario:

Scenario One

: Lynch Correctly, Vig Correctly = Town Win

~ 10% chance

Scenario Two

: Lynch Correctly, MisVig, Lynch Correctly = Town Win

~ 10% chance

Scenario Three

: Mislynch, Vig Correctly, Lynch Correctly = Town Win

~ 10% chance

Scenario Four

: Lynch Correctly, MisVig, Mislynch = Town Loses

~ 20% chance

Scenario Five

: Mislynch, MisVig = Town Loses

~ 30% chance

Scenario Six

: Mislynch, Vig correctly, Mislynch = Town Loses

~ 20% chance

Overall, scum have a 70% chance of winning this game. I do not think scum would replace out under such circumstances. If we have a No Lynch, scum's chances only go up.

[farside22]

There's also my view on this. I know I'm town. I know with no counter claim that confus is town.
That leaves chauc, pie, mmm and havingfitz.
I believe that reading Deer and pitt that havingfitz was more then likely investigated (would you agree or disagree at this point?)
That leaves me with 3 players.
I already see the biggest connection with Semi/MMM and Chauc over any other connection in the game.
Second connection would be MMM/Pie just all the back and forth with Pie and I dont' think MMM said much to anything to hito and Ray frost pushing on him but nothing more could be scum bussing. With all the replacements on Pie it's hard to get a good grasp on the standing. Would RayFrost buss his partner? I know I have seen him do it before.
The only person who I see thought MMM was scum is currently voting me. I dont' see that changing and I dont' see MMM getting lynched even though I believe he is more likely scum. Once he flips it's clear Chauc or Pie is scum at that point.
Since MMM seems to getting town points for being nothing more then OMGUS to people I will vote the next possibility in my mind as his scum partner in Chauc.

[Pie_is_good]

Agree with Confucius that chau's replacing is not a mark against.

Agree with farside about chau, obviously, but it doesn't make a difference if one of MMM/havingfitz can't be convinced.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

So, both of you think that CC.com and SOG were busing D2? What makes you think that?

[Jeffcole1]

Vote Count 3.10:

farside22 (3): Confucius, havingfitz, Mysterious Mystery Man

chauchaudotcom (2): farside22, Pie_is_good

Not Voting (1): chauchaudotcom

[Pie_is_good]

So, both of you think that CC.com and SOG were busing D2? What makes you think that?

I've answered this - the fact that cc pointedly avoided conflict with everyone who she didn't vote/wind up voting for, except that SOG was the only exception to this rule.

Why do you think they weren't bussing?

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

Because there was no reason for them to get into a big exchange. Normally, busing is done so that you do not look scummy for ignoring a bandwagon on your partner. The only reason I see for them to have gotten into all that is that CC.com expressed suspicion of farside22. Furthermore, there's no "DIE SCUM DIE" in their exchange, at least not from CC.com's side. It's just a lot of back and forth that's really convoluted. That doesn't look like busing to me.

[farside22]

I would say they were distancing each other and using that arguement as a ruse. One flips scum who would look at the other with a argument like that.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

But neither were expected to flip scum. I don't see any reason for busing.

[Jeffcole1]

Vote Count 3.11:

farside22 (3): Confucius, havingfitz, Mysterious Mystery Man

chauchaudotcom (2): farside22, Pie_is_good

Not Voting (1): chauchaudotcom

[havingfitz]

I would feel a lot worse about the immediate backing of a farside lynch if I didn't already find CC scummy (so it seems entirely possible that MMM/havingfitz are legitimately town pointing fingers at farsidescum).

Anyways, Vote: chauchau. A farside lynch wouldn't be the worst thing in the world come deadline but I'd prefer this..

Pie...still feel this way?

Mod...when is the deadline?

[Pie_is_good]

@MMM: People bus unprovoked all. the. time. That way it's harder to detect connections between scum if one of them dies. The fact that you're interpreting the SOG/chau bickering as clearing of chau is yet another demonstration of why unprovoked bussing is sometimes a good idea.
To reverse the question: why do you think chau was willing to engage in voteless bickering with SOG but not others?

@havingfitz: Yeah, I'm still willing to hammer farside when the time comes. To be honest, I'm losing patience - I don't get the feeling MMM is willing to change his mind no matter what I say - so at this point I'm basically waiting for a replacement. And to answer your question:

Current Deadline: Sunday, May 30, 2010, at 8:00 PM forum time

[havingfitz]

Damb...9 more days.

yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn..........

Hopefully the replacement won't take too long to find.

[farside22]

But neither were expected to flip scum. I don't see any reason for busing.

I have seen scum distance before. It bit me in the ass in another game.
This was with kise and SL. Anyways they started to attack each other day 3 in the game so when there was one scum left everyone thought about the attack and declared the scum town at that point.

[Pie_is_good]

To be absolutely clear about how I'm willing to vote:

Chauchau > HF > farside > MMM > NoLynch

Confucius and myself, of course, being out of the question.

So anyone seen any good movies lately?

[farside22]

So anyone seen any good movies lately?

I saw the critic tear apart the new Shrek movie. It gives me pause to not see it. Loved the new Iron Man movie but still liked Terance Howard better then what's his name as Tony's friend. The villian in the movie was played perfectly and I'm a sucker for Samn Rockwell.

[Confucius]

Note

: I am going to be V/LA in a couple days for possibly a week or so. I will probably get some intermittent internet access, but nothing reliable.

~

farside22, suppose we lynch you and you come up town. Who would you propose I vig, knowing that a misvig outright loses the game?

Now suppose we lynch chauchaudotcom and she comes up town. Who would you propose that I vig, knowing that a misvig outright loses the game?

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

IMO, in the unlikely circumstance farside22 flips town, CC.com should be vigged. The most popular scum theories seem to be:

farside22 and Pie_is_good

farside22 and Mysterious Mystery Man

chauchaudotcom and havingfitz

chauchaudotcom and Mysterious Mystery Man

So, if farside22 is town, we should all be able to agree CC.com is scum.

So anyone seen any good movies lately?

I saw the critic tear apart the new Shrek movie. It gives me pause to not see it. Loved the new Iron Man movie but still liked Terance Howard better then what's his name as Tony's friend. The villian in the movie was played perfectly and I'm a sucker for Samn Rockwell.

SCUM DAYTALKING!!!!!!

[Jeffcole1]

Vote Count 3.12:

farside22 (3): Confucius, havingfitz, Mysterious Mystery Man

chauchaudotcom (2): farside22, Pie_is_good

Not Voting (1): chauchaudotcom

[farside22]

Note

: I am going to be V/LA in a couple days for possibly a week or so. I will probably get some intermittent internet access, but nothing reliable.

~

farside22, suppose we lynch you and you come up town. Who would you propose I vig, knowing that a misvig outright loses the game?

Now suppose we lynch chauchaudotcom and she comes up town. Who would you propose that I vig, knowing that a misvig outright loses the game?

If you decide to lynch me and I flip town you should vig either chauch or MMM. I'm pretty certain they are scum.

If chauch flips town (which is hard to see at this point in my view) then it's MMM/Pie that are the scum team.
The math is pretty simple in my view based on who I feel is town.

[Mysterious Mystery Man]

Hold on, how do get that I'm scum with Pie? As I see it, the fact that not only has Pie not hammered you, but has actively avoided your lynch this whole time means that either he's scum with you, or he's town.

[Confucius]

I think this needs to be said:

Pretty much everything everybody does

today

(Day Three)

should not

be used to determine who is partnered with who. Scum are well aware at this point that all they have to do is have

one

scum survive, not both.

The fact that Pie_is_good has not hammered farside22 tells us pretty much nothing. What if he is just hoping for a No Lynch (which is worse for the town than a mislynch)? What if he is partners with farside22? What if he is trying to look town by not pushing for a mislynch? What if he is just waiting for deadline to come so he has a "reason" to change his vote?

[Pie_is_good]

Speculation that I'm trying to sneak in a No Lynch is dumb and will be put to rest when I do not, in fact, let the day end in a No Lynch.

Unsure why chau/farside is not considered as an option. My pairing order is roughly:

chau/havingfitz
chau/farside
farside/MMM
farside/havingfitz
chau/MMM
havingfitz/MMM

[Jeffcole1]

Vote Count 3.13:

farside22 (3): Confucius, havingfitz, Mysterious Mystery Man

chauchaudotcom (2): farside22, Pie_is_good

Not Voting (1): chauchaudotcom

[Confucius]

Still here, still voting, mostly waiting on a replacement.