Mini 954 ~ Mafia at the 11th Hour (Game Over!)

[Jahudo]

@ToD: Why did you vote so quickly?

I ask this because you replace into alot of games, but typically only vote after you've made a case on someone. Here's some examples:

You made a case before voting in this game: Mini 937, where you were town.
Here you voted as you gave your player reads, Mafia 104, and you were town.
In Legacy of the Ancients Mafia you were town and first voted when you had a case ready.
And don't forget Korlash Town, another town performance where you made a case then voted, but not before.

On the flipside, you voted before the case in this game: Mafia 102, where you played as scum.
But that's the only scum game I've seen you replace into, so maybe there's another explanation?

[Herodotus]

@Jahudo: A cursory look at your links says that your comments are correct.
Were you in any of those games? (I don't see you as a player.) If not, what prompted you to check so many of ToD's games? Have you looked into his playstyle during a previous game together? (Or are there any other ongoing games you're both in?)

@Porkens: it's fine if you don't have data to back that up, since it's false. But can you point to any place you've said that before? I have trouble believing you really think that.

[Porkens]

Herod; you're talking about the replacement thing?

I'm pretty shocked by your reaction here. Are you saying that you think I'm lying about what I believe? What purpose would that serve?

I don't know that I've ever written it down in those words before.

Can you show me that I'm wrong? Has there been any data collected to disprove what I said? Why are you so confident that it is flat "false"?

[Jahudo]

@Jahudo: A cursory look at your links says that your comments are correct.
Were you in any of those games? (I don't see you as a player.) If not, what prompted you to check so many of ToD's games? Have you looked into his playstyle during a previous game together? (Or are there any other ongoing games you're both in?)

The only time I saw him was in Vi's Mafia Jailbreak, but he was NK'ed before he really got to posting.

It was actually my lack of familiarity with his game that made me want to read into him a little bit. I'm not sure yet if he really sees me as suspicious, or if he just liked VP's case on me for its own merits.

[dramonic]

2 days left of shitty contribution from me and then exams are over and I'm free to waste my complete day reading up on my games!

[Herodotus]

@Porkens: I didn't have much time when I was writing that, and I misremembered this thread as talking about replacements rather than last-to-confirm. So I mistakenly believed that someone had taken a sample and proved the idea false.
I don't think anyone has ever researched the question before. IMO, lurking and then not being replaced is a scumtell, but flaking or requesting replacement is just an issue of being unable to continue due to real life.

but that list was supposed to represent the sum of the case against me. The fact that it wasn't added to is what prompted me to say "is that the best you have?"

Are you saying that your post 557 summarized the case against you? Because I don't think it did that.

@Jahudo: I can't recall seeing you discuss players' past games before, so I wondered if you had more experiences with ToD. It looked like there might be some OMGUS in your response to ToD's vote.

@Dramonic: good luck for your exams!

[Trumpet of Doom]

(

WARNING:

wall-o-text)

Okay, I think I've figured out what it was with Jahudo and the AwesomeWagon that was bugging me.

By the time Jahudo got on the Nik-wagon, Nik had: tried to lurkerhunt VPB (who'd posted twice on p1) while ignoring people who hadn't posted (which Jahudo asked about); voted Percy for "taking a long time to read a three-page thread" when there were any number of alignment-nonindicative reasons (again, which Jahudo pointed out); and tried to start a wagon on Seraphim with weak reasoning. So he knew that Nik was doing a fair amount of scummy stuff. And yet the vote post looks like this?

Also of note in that 2nd link is the fact that this exact situation played out. There were multiple promises of posts and then days would slip by before we heard from him again. Had the Mod been in attendance, prods would've been sent.

Interesting. It looks like Nikanor is misleading the town here:

What Percy did is exactly what I have a tendency toward doing as scum: posting "Oh, I'll catch up!" and then not actually catching up until I get prodded again. If you want, I could give about five or six examples where I do this as scum.

Make room on the awesome wagon!

unvote;
Vote: Nikanor

Not that trying to mislead the town isn't scummy, but that's the reason he uses to vote? And be fourth on the wagon, so that if it went from there straight to lynch, there would be three people on the wagon before him and three people on after him (in other words, he'd be right in the middle of the wagon)? Looks to me like "hmmm, I've been expressing suspicion of my scumbuddy so that I can hop on his wagon if it looks like it'll be the one to go to lynch, and hey, he's just digging deeper and deeper. I think I should get on this wagon now while there's still room."

@Trumpet: What about VPB's case was solid? All of it? Maybe VPB addressed what I did that rubbed you the wrong way.

All or most of it, yeah - I remember reading some of his posts and thinking, "yeah, that's fairly incriminating, why is he still alive?" Iso 42 and 47 were the big ones. And he didn't mention what I just put up at the top.

And being replaced is a scumtell? LOL.

FWIW, I've heard something similar before - I think it was "the same player slot being replaced

repeatedly

is a scumtell" (which seems like it would make sense if the average player enjoys being town more than being scum); the only evidence I have off the top of my head is my modded game, Open 185. The only player slot replaced more than once was scum.

I went back and looked at his most recent post and realized that I had read it wrong. Originally, I thought he was saying these were his initial impressions coming off of a Nik Iso.

He's actually saying that these are hi sfull conclusions from reading the full thread.

I can now get behind a Pom/ToD Wagon.

@ToD: Is this correct?

Yes. On my read, the only person I found obvscum was Nik - I didn't even have to look at the OP to figure out he was scum - and Jahudo was my strongest gut read of the still-living players.

@ToD: Why did you vote so quickly?

I wanted to get people to take another look at you and what had been said about you before. Evidently I failed.

You made a case before voting in this game: Mini 937, where you were town.

I don't really think that's a good example, actually: The only reason I waited to vote there was because there was still a chance that someone would claim something to clear DS. And if you'll notice, the case was on someone else - DS was essentially caught scum at that point. I'll concede the other three, though.

On the flipside, you voted before the case in this game: Mafia 102, where you played as scum.
But that's the only scum game I've seen you replace into, so maybe there's another explanation?

Gee, thanks for reminding me of that game - I'd been trying my hardest to forget it ever happened (not one of my more exemplary performances). One explanation I can think of is small sample size - I have three scum games total on this site, and two of them were my first two games here (Newbie and Mini 709, both of which I also replaced into) - so if I were to say 102 shows anything, it shows that I need a bunch more scum experience.

The only time I saw him was in Vi's Mafia Jailbreak, but he was NK'ed before he really got to posting.

...by you, no less. So this debate right now over my play is really OGML's fault, if you get down to the root cause.

(Explanation for those who don't know: In Mafia Jailbreak, I replaced OhGodMyLife-VT fairly late in D2. N2, Jahudo-SK killed me because he thought OGML was a PR. My logic is then that if Jahudo had killed someone else, he might have gotten to see some of my town play.)

I'm not sure yet if he really sees me as suspicious, or if he just liked VP's case on me for its own merits.

I do see you as suspicious - it was mostly gut at first (with a thought of "hmm, I need to take a closer look at this at some point"), then VPB codified it. Does that clear things up?

[Porkens]

@Porkens: I didn't have much time when I was writing that, and I misremembered this thread as talking about replacements rather than last-to-confirm. So I mistakenly believed that someone had taken a sample and proved the idea false.
I don't think anyone has ever researched the question before. IMO, lurking and then not being replaced is a scumtell, but flaking or requesting replacement is just an issue of being unable to continue due to real life.

but that list was supposed to represent the sum of the case against me. The fact that it wasn't added to is what prompted me to say "is that the best you have?"

Are you saying that your post 557 summarized the case against you? Because I don't think it did that.

@Jahudo: I can't recall seeing you discuss players' past games before, so I wondered if you had more experiences with ToD. It looked like there might be some OMGUS in your response to ToD's vote.

@Dramonic: good luck for your exams!

What would you add to the summary?

[Vi]

Vote Count XXXIX:

- Mafia is an exam too!

Porkens (L-

2

) ~ Herodotus, Percy, Jahudo, dramonic

Trumpet of Doom (L-3) ~ VP Baltar, d3x
Percy (L-4) ~ Porkens
Jahudo (L-4) ~ Trumpet of Doom

Minimum (L-5)

Battery Power:

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(41%)

[Jahudo]

Not that trying to mislead the town isn't scummy, but that's the reason he uses to vote?

You're ignoring that I was on d3x first and his defense changed my opinion of both him and Nikanor. What about my posts leading up to my Nikanor vote didn't indicate I was investigating d3x above everyone else? And that it was d3x's case that made me look at Nikanor at the time of my vote.

That's what caused my vote to be the 4th one. You don't seem to have evidence of any other reasoning.

Also, with a lack of ToD scum games, I don't feel confident saying he is more likely to replace in as scum and think about voting first.

So....... Porkens lynch?

[Percy]

Checking in, will have a proper catch-up post done soon, my new computer arrives today!

[Porkens]

Not that trying to mislead the town isn't scummy, but that's the reason he uses to vote?

You're ignoring that I was on d3x first and his defense changed my opinion of both him and Nikanor. What about my posts leading up to my Nikanor vote didn't indicate I was investigating d3x above everyone else? And that it was d3x's case that made me look at Nikanor at the time of my vote.

That's what caused my vote to be the 4th one. You don't seem to have evidence of any other reasoning.

Also, with a lack of ToD scum games, I don't feel confident saying he is more likely to replace in as scum and think about voting first.

So....... Porkens lynch?

for what reason other than general wagoneering?

[VP Baltar]

Good to see d3x came around. Any other takers on the ToD wagon? Now is the time to get serious if you're doing it. However, ToD going after Jahudo hard has me a bit confused. I had seen the potential for buddies between them, but now I could be wrong unless they are distancing (a possibility in its own right given how inevitbale the Porkens lynch is feeling).

In the meantime:

Yes, being replaced I believe is a scumjtell (no data to back that up)

...no?

Can you show me that I'm wrong? Has there been any data collected to disprove what I said? Why are you so confident that it is flat "false"?

Lots of town players replace out. You can't really call it a scumtell if town does it as well. I have no clue why you feel replacing is scummy in general. You most certainly have to look at things on a case by case basis to determine if it's a viable scum move. In hero's case, I'm less certain than I was yesterday. Cobalt lurking is something I saw as a scumtell, but he has apparently flaked the site (at least from what I've seen) so replacing doesn't really say much of anything.

So....... Porkens lynch?

This may be best. This game is stagnating hardcore and I feel people aren't going to let it go or discuss much else until it happens. I think Porkens' frustration is reading kind of genuine at points, but there are also valid points against him, so it could be faked I suppose. Unless I get strong support for ToD soon I will be switching my vote over so we can move ahead.

[Vi]

Vote Count XL:

- Hardcore Stagnation

Porkens (L-

2

) ~ Herodotus, Percy, Jahudo, dramonic

Trumpet of Doom (L-3) ~ VP Baltar, d3x
Percy (L-4) ~ Porkens
Jahudo (L-4) ~ Trumpet of Doom

Minimum (L-5)

Battery Power:

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(31%)

[Trumpet of Doom]

Not that trying to mislead the town isn't scummy, but that's the reason he uses to vote?

You're ignoring that I was on d3x first and his defense changed my opinion of both him and Nikanor. What about my posts leading up to my Nikanor vote didn't indicate I was investigating d3x above everyone else?

How far back do you want me to go? Your first post that even mentioned d3x was iso 10, in which he was suddenly your top suspect. (For reference, your Nik vote was in iso 12.) In iso 10, you have 5 different paragraphs, only one of which is related to d3x. (And iso 11 looks like backtracking some on the "not giving reads" that you brought up in iso 10, just as a bit more for why you're scum.)

And that it was d3x's case that made me look at Nikanor at the time of my vote.

My issue with that is that if someone posts a reason for voting in the vote post, I tend to assume that's the only reason they're voting. It's one thing if the post or action in question is lynchworthy on its own, but I'm having trouble seeing the attempt to spin his meta as actually crossing that line. Nik had by that point done a decent number of scummy things, so your only mentioning one seems... off, to say the least. (I'd be fine if there'd been a sentence like "combine that with X, Y, and Z, and...")

That's what caused my vote to be the 4th one. You don't seem to have evidence of any other reasoning.

I'd say the fourth vote is fairly good for distancing scum: It's not too early (so if it doesn't go anywhere, your buddy's not really pissed at you), but it's early enough to give you potential town cred for being on your partner's lynch while not being too obvious about "ooh, I need to be on this scumlynch!"

So....... Porkens lynch?

Hmmm...

both

my top suspects (Hero, Jahudo) are on this wagon? I don't think I like it all that much, actually.

[d3x]

@PorkWagon- Are you guys against the ToD Wagon? Do you find both viable Lynches for the Day?

@Pork- What are your thoughts on ToD?

[Porkens]

He wins points with me for not being on my wagon (OMGUDS ?), and for being against Herod.

He's not just going along - it would have been super easy to just jump on my wagon (see Herod).

He did replace in, so that's probably a mark against him (if I'm trying to be consistant) BUT it's not like Sera who promised a reread and then quit.

BUUUUUUUUUUUT probably since he's one of the few people not on my ass out of sheer laziness, I have some fuzzy feelings for him today.

So, I like him today, but I don't want to say that he's certainly town.

[Jahudo]

I can compromise on a ToD lynch. Its possible either/both Pom and Porkens were looking for the next mislynch after SOG's lynch was well in hand. I don't see how either of them came to the conclusion that he was town, and neither really pushed to save him.

How far back do you want me to go? Your first post that even mentioned d3x was iso 10, in which he was suddenly your top suspect. (For reference, your Nik vote was in iso 12.)

What's wrong with suddenly in this case?

In iso 10, you have 5 different paragraphs, only one of which is related to d3x.

That's all I needed to say at that point. Hearing from d3x about the other players was Step 2.

(And iso 11 looks like backtracking some on the "not giving reads" that you brought up in iso 10, just as a bit more for why you're scum.)

I don't see what you're talking about?

My issue with that is that if someone posts a reason for voting in the vote post, I tend to assume that's the only reason they're voting.

Most people on this site aren't like that.

I'd say the fourth vote is fairly good for distancing scum: It's not too early (so if it doesn't go anywhere, your buddy's not really pissed at you), but it's early enough to give you potential town cred for being on your partner's lynch while not being too obvious about "ooh, I need to be on this scumlynch!"

From what I can tell, you've only played in 1 mini game where scum got lynched on day 1. That was Korlash Town, where the 4th vote was made by a townie. So where does this theory come from? Because I've heard variations and don't believe any are really reliable until you take in the unique circumstances of each wagon.

[Vi]

Vote Count XLI:

- Night is starting to set in...

Porkens (L-

2

) ~ Herodotus, Percy, Jahudo, dramonic

Trumpet of Doom (L-3) ~ VP Baltar, d3x
Percy (L-4) ~ Porkens
Jahudo (L-4) ~ Trumpet of Doom

Minimum (L-5)

Battery Power:

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(22%)

[VP Baltar]

Any other takers on the ToD wagon. Last call.

[Jahudo]

@ToD: What do you think of everyone else in the game? Who is your second suspect?

[Trumpet of Doom]

I had a nice long post written up, and then my browser decided to freeze on me. Let's try it again:

How far back do you want me to go? Your first post that even mentioned d3x was iso 10, in which he was suddenly your top suspect. (For reference, your Nik vote was in iso 12.)

What's wrong with suddenly in this case?

I'd have imagined your top suspect would have been one of the people you were asking questions to or about in iso 8 or iso 9. Having it instead be someone whose existence you hadn't even acknowledged until then seems... off, for lack of a better word.

In iso 10, you have 5 different paragraphs, only one of which is related to d3x.

That's all I needed to say at that point. Hearing from d3x about the other players was Step 2.

The question was, "what about [your] posts leading up to [your] Nikanor vote didn't indicate [you were] investigating d3x above everyone else?" The amount of space you dedicated in iso 10 to everyone else relative to d3x definitely doesn't indicate it.

(And iso 11 looks like backtracking some on the "not giving reads" that you brought up in iso 10, just as a bit more for why you're scum.)

I don't see what you're talking about?

I think my issue is that it looks to me like you were going from "asking questions and not giving reads like d3x is doing is scummy" in iso 10 to "it was fine when you were asking questions to two of the three players you were asking questions to" in iso 11.

My issue with that is that if someone posts a reason for voting in the vote post, I tend to assume that's the only reason they're voting.

Most people on this site aren't like that.

Eh, perhaps. I sense that having a long, drawn-out argument over this will just be more trouble than it's really worth anyway.

I'd say the fourth vote is fairly good for distancing scum: It's not too early (so if it doesn't go anywhere, your buddy's not really pissed at you), but it's early enough to give you potential town cred for being on your partner's lynch while not being too obvious about "ooh, I need to be on this scumlynch!"

From what I can tell, you've only played in 1 mini game where scum got lynched on day 1. That was Korlash Town, where the 4th vote was made by a townie. So where does this theory come from? Because I've heard variations and don't believe any are really reliable until you take in the unique circumstances of each wagon.

Here's the logic I used. If you disagree, feel free to point out where.

Scum want to look like town.
One viable way for scum to look like town is to be on lynches of scum and off lynches of town.
Thus, if scum realize their partner will be lynched, it is tactically advantageous to be on their wagon.
If they try to get on too late, then depending on how they do it, town might end up looking at them in the next couple of days and saying "oh, he knew this wagon was going to be a scumlynch and wanted to be on it early."
Therefore, scum don't really want to get on their partner's wagon too late.
However, if you get on your partner's wagon too early, you're making the lynch a sure thing when it might not otherwise have been, and your other partners (including the wagonee, if the lynch ends up not happening) will be mad at you. (I learned this the hard way - Mini 709, linked above, had me try to bus my way to victory and fail miserably.)
Therefore, scum don't really want to get on their partner's wagon too early.
So if it helps scum to be on their partners' wagons when they're heading to lynch, but not to get on too late or too early, it would help most to get on somewhere towards the middle.
With 7 to lynch, 4 is not just "towards" the middle, it

is

the middle.

So your being fourth on the AwesomeWagon, while perhaps not a scumtell per se (because it's entirely possible for a townie to happen to be fourth on a scum wagon), isn't exactly a point in your favor either.

@ToD: What do you think of everyone else in the game? Who is your second suspect?

My second suspect is unchanged from who it was at the bottom of post 614. My logic for why Hero is my suspect is expressed in 586, but to reiterate:

Nikanor's post 227 says his top three suspects are Pom (=me), VPB, and Seraphim (=Hero). I strongly suspect that there is one scum in that group, and even more strongly that there is one scum not in that group. Of the set {me, VPB, Hero}, I know I'm not scum, and I have a solid town read on VPB and a weak scumread on Hero. So I think if there is, in fact, scum in that group, it's probably Hero. And since I think there's scum in that group, I think Hero's probably scum.

Of the other players:
Percy: seems town.
dramonic: fitting the town meta I have on him, though I've never seen him as scum.
d3x: seems town.
Porkens: not a strong read either way. On the one hand, I do kinda see where the wagon on him is coming from. On the other, my scumread on Jahudo is relatively strong, and Jahudo and Hero are both on his wagon, so I'm inclined to see Porkens as town.

[Percy]

IMO, lurking and then not being replaced is a scumtell, but flaking or requesting replacement is just an issue of being unable to continue due to real life.

There was a lot of talk about this in Gonzo mafia; turns out that replacing out can be a sign of scum, but I'd only really believe it if someone ragequit after someone made a case against them.

for what reason other than general wagoneering?

Look, Porkens has been doing a lot of dismissing and oversimplifying the case against him, so I'm going to tap out why I think Porkens is scum.

1. I didn't like his D1 play. I know people are willing to discount this on a meta basis, and I do see some merit in that. However,
2. There was some weird Porkens voting shenanigans going on which I noted earlier. Note here that he is voting for the TM slot there, then votes dramonic, then jumps on and off the Nikanor wagon before jumping back on again.
3. His turn-around today with regards to SOG feels like scum capitalising on a mislynch.

However, my scumread of Porkens isn't as strong as it used to be.

@VP Baltar

: What do you think of Trumpet of Doom? I can see you didn't like Pom, but why should I join you on your wagon?

For the record, Trumpet reads gut town to me. I like his case against Jahudo; I also think Jahudo is scummy. In particular, I think Cobalt was town, and with me saying that I was unwilling to hammer Cobalt, it makes a lot of sense for scum-Jahudo to switch his vote from Cobalt to semioldguy when I had to come in and do the hammering. Looking back on that switch, it seems very poorly reasoned to me, and makes more sense as a scum move trying to secure a townie mislynch.

He also backed out of the Hero suspicion (despite declaring Porkens and Hero scum early on today via PoE) by using the same ideas I had earlier, but somehow strengthened due to the townflips. I don't follow the reasoning well enough to see why it's a compelling point today, but wasn't like that yesterday.

Finally, his "willingness to compromise" on a ToD lynch also feels like a scum move. This is kinda like his "competing wagon" comments about VP Baltar earlier in the game. Jahudo feels far more like scum playing the town than like town doing honest scumhunting.

Unvote, Vote: Jahudo

.

[Jahudo]

This is an interesting development. I now think ToD is town, so forget what I said about switching votes. We need a Porkens lynch.

I'd have imagined your top suspect would have been one of the people you were asking questions to or about in iso 8 or iso 9. Having it instead be someone whose existence you hadn't even acknowledged until then seems... off, for lack of a better word.

The question was, "what about [your] posts leading up to [your] Nikanor vote didn't indicate [you were] investigating d3x above everyone else?" The amount of space you dedicated in iso 10 to everyone else relative to d3x definitely doesn't indicate it.

You thought I should've prodded a lurker on page 3? That's a reach.

The people I talked to in ISO's 8 and 9 were things I needed clarification on, because what they said wasn't entirely clear but at that time I wasn't thinking they'd be scummy. With d3x, it looked like active lurking, which I thought was suspicious, and I felt I wasn't misreading the lack of information so there was nothing to clarify.

Therefore, scum don't really want to get on their partner's wagon too early.

So in short, you just made up a bunch of stuff that sounds logical but really amounts to random odds unless you take in the specifics of that wagon.

Scum will place their vote on a buddy whenever they think is best to their overall survival. The middle has its pros and cons like any other spot. Trust me, bussing is my gimmick. If I could do it as town, I would.

In particular, I think Cobalt was town, and with me saying that I was unwilling to hammer Cobalt, it makes a lot of sense for scum-Jahudo to switch his vote from Cobalt to semioldguy when I had to come in and do the hammering. Looking back on that switch, it seems very poorly reasoned to me, and makes more sense as a scum move trying to secure a townie mislynch.

Um no. As I recall you were unwilling to switch so I had to compromise so we wouldn't get a no lynch. And we don't know that Cobalt/Hero is town, though I'd bet he is town.

He also backed out of the Hero suspicion (despite declaring Porkens and Hero scum early on today via PoE) by using the same ideas I had earlier, but somehow strengthened due to the townflips.

Where did you have the same ideas?

I don't follow the reasoning well enough to see why it's a compelling point today, but wasn't like that yesterday.

Seriously? SOG and DDD were still alive yesterday. I thought Nikanor might've been buddying Tony to DDD (or less likely DDD to Tony). Once I knew both were town, it was clear he was waiting for the loser to emerge and become the mislynch.

Finally, his "willingness to compromise" on a ToD lynch also feels like a scum move.

I've said from the start that BOTH Pom and Porkens looked bad for their SOG "town read". Its just that Porkens has done other things I think are bad, whereas that's the only thing I have against Pom.

[VP Baltar]

What do you think of Trumpet of Doom?

Honestly, the Jahudo case does seem in earnest and is muddying my read of that slot (as I implied earlier). I like some of his points against Jahudo, as they're fairly close to my own issues. Others (such as vote reasoning) are a bit blah, but I kind of like that he was willing to back off of that in his last post. That seems town reasonable. I can also agree with him in the one scum in {VPB, Hero, ToD} pairing considering I had a scum read on the other two slots at various times.

On the other hand, I don't have much experience with To'D (I think there was one game, but I can't recall specifically, perhaps one I hydra'ed with Amished in), so I don't know how good he is at "faking it".

All in all though, I could definitely get down with a Jahudo lynch today as a middle ground. At first the Porkens wagon seemed quite good, but the way people just pushed it and then went quiet bothers me a bit. Too much complacency for such vast support of it.

On the other hand, why are you open to another lynch suddenly Percy? You've been pushing Porkens pretty hard all day without much care elsewhere. Was it just ToD's case that changed your heart (even though you do still say Porkens is scum and there is wagon support there)?