Mini 945: Mafia in Bawlmer - GAME OVER

[Netopalis]

Yeah, I think it's time for a massclaim.

VT here.

[Cyberbob]

Sure. Bob could be claiming vig falsely, when the kill was actually the mafia's factional kill which he used.

Playing your hand a bit too hard there bro.

Vote: Netopalis

[StrangerCoug]

Vanilla townie.

I call BS on the vig claim. As I think MacavityLock said (and if not, I'm adding to him), we do not have evidence of more than one kill, vigging is risking giving the game to the Mafia, and for Cyberbob to be correct requires the extremely unlikely event of the Mafia missing three kills in a row.

His vote reason is crap, also. Basically cracking under the pressure.

Vote: Cyberbob

[Ythan]

Not to call you idiots but unvote idiots.

[Netopalis]

Yeah. Seriously. We're in LYLO.

[Cyberbob]

for Cyberbob to be correct requires the extremely unlikely event of the Mafia missing three kills in a row.

Nope, just the one of the mafia missing their kill on Nights 2 and 4. Which is not completely out of the question given that Ythan is both a protector and a roleblocker.

Are you sure you're feeling OK? That was quite the error - sure you're not getting a bit desperate at all?

Unvote

[Cyberbob]

We basically have a 2/3 chance to hit scum if we were to completely blindly lynch one of ML, Netopalis or SC. I like those odds, and I wouldn't mind betting that it's a Neto-SC scumteam; ML doesn't like my claim either, but he makes the same points I probably would in his shoes whereas Netopalis has been working the sly insinuation angle while SC has been fairly frothing at the mouth.

Re risking the end of the game: Yeah, I did and it was quite a tough decision not only to pull the trigger but also to pick xvart. Still, I figured that I had a pretty good chance at hitting scum and even if I didn't the small remaining playercount would give us a decent chance of Ythan preventing the mafia kill with his own role.

[Netopalis]

We basically have a 2/3 chance to hit scum if we were to completely blindly lynch one of ML, Netopalis or SC. I like those odds, and I wouldn't mind betting that it's a Neto-SC scumteam; ML doesn't like my claim either, but he makes the same points I probably would in his shoes whereas Netopalis has been working the sly insinuation angle while SC has been fairly frothing at the mouth.

Re risking the end of the game: Yeah, I did and it was quite a tough decision not only to pull the trigger but also to pick xvart. Still, I figured that I had a pretty good chance at hitting scum and even if I didn't the small remaining playercount would give us a decent chance of Ythan preventing the mafia kill with his own role.

Really don't like this post. It seems like he's singling ML out not for what he said, but for the political value of it. Not sure why. Either he's trying to get ML on his voting side or he's trying to set ML up for a better game after he's lynched. Or he could actually be telling the truth, but who mentions that in Mafia?

[StrangerCoug]

Unvote

, if only for sanity's sake.

[StrangerCoug]

EBWOP:

for Cyberbob to be correct requires the extremely unlikely event of the Mafia missing three kills in a row.

Nope, just the one of the mafia missing their kill on Nights 2 and 4. Which is not completely out of the question given that Ythan is both a protector and a roleblocker.

Are you sure you're feeling OK? That was quite the error - sure you're not getting a bit desperate at all?

Are you asleep? Nobody's kill went off Night 3.

[Ythan]

Can we get top two suspects from everyone? I'm sure you won't mind if I go last.

[Ythan]

Let me rephrase that. Can we get SC's top two suspects, then those of his number one, and so on.

[StrangerCoug]

Cyberbob and Netopalis in that order.

[Ythan]

Bob, top two suspects in order.

[Cyberbob]

Netopalis, then SC.

Are you asleep? Nobody's kill went off Night 3.

Given that that post would have been made at about 4am IIRC (give or take), I could very well have been.

[Ythan]

Neto, you're up.

[Netopalis]

Cyberbob, then ML. Followed closely by SC, but unfortunately, it's unlikely that we'll get a third lynch.

[Netopalis]

Wait a minute. Ythan, can we get a full list of your jailkeeping targets?

[Ythan]

I've done so. Do you want them compiled?

Also it's ML's turn by default.

[MacavityLock]

Sorry about the emergency V/LA. I've been trying to sort through everything, and here's a nice long post for people to digest.

----

First, let's examine possible pairings based on claimed night actions.

From my perspective, the possibilities are as follows:

Cyberbob/SC - Cyberbob-scum successfully killed N2 & 4. SC-scum tried to kill on N3, which Ythan successfully prevented.
Cyberbob/Neto - Cyberbob-scum successfully killed N2 & 4. One of the scums tried to kill SC N3.
Cyberbob/Ythan - They've been playing a long con, trying to set me up for N2 & 4, and probably SC too for N3. Chose to not kill on N3.
SC/Neto - 3 missing kills, all prevented by Ythan. Ythan targeted killing SC-scum N3 and successfully prevented scum from killing me N2 & 4. Unlikely!
SC/Ythan - Chose to No Kill 3 nights in a row. Impossible.
Neto/Ythan - Impossible. See SC/Ythan.

Analysis results: Ythan can't be scum unless Cyberbob is also. Cyberbob is likely to be scum, and for Cyberbob to not be scum, Ythan had to target either the killer or the killee correctly 3 nights in a row. SC is right is his analysis.

Nope, just the one of the mafia missing their kill on Nights 2 and 4. Which is not completely out of the question given that Ythan is both a protector and a roleblocker.

Then, what happened on N3? Does your 639 recant this?

For completeness sake, I'll include the pairs including me. Obviously, I'm biased, so feel free to check my work.

ML/Cyberbob - Cyberbob-scum successfully killed N2 & 4. One of the scums tried to kill SC N3.
ML/SC - 3 missing kills. Ythan targeted killing scum N2-4.
ML/Neto - 3 missing kills. One of the scums tried to kill SC N3.
ML/Ythan - Impossible. See SC/Ythan.

Results: ML/Cyberbob is approx. equivalent to Cyberbob/Neto. ML/SC and ML/Neto are approx. equivalent to SC/Neto, unlikely based on correctly targeting killer or killee 3 times in a row. ML/Ythan result is the same; Ythan can't be scum without Cyberbob also being scum.

By the way, crunching the numbers, if Ythan jails completely randomly, that's (2/9)*(2/7)*(2/6) = 2.1%. Even if you bump up those probabilities because your gut reads feel right, it's still going to be unlikely.

----

Second, it's role-claim time. I'm a cop. My investigations are as follows: Over N1, I investigated Sidekick/Ythan and received an Innocent. Over N2, I attempted to investigate Cyberbob, and received a No Result. Over N3, I investigated Dizzle and received an Innocent. Over N4, I attempted to investigate xvart, and again received a No Result.

I believed Ythan's roleclaim right away because I had already gotten an Innocent on him and it fit so well: I got blocked N2, when he claimed to block me. You're damn right I don't want your blocking me to get me lynched today, Ythan; it's LYLO and I don't want to lose.

----

Now, let's go back to the possible pairings. Ythan's got the Innocent, which leaves any pair with Cyberbob, Neto, and SC. Given the Miller in the game, I've been worried about a Godfather also being in the game, which could potentially be Ythan. Even given that, Cyberbob/Ythan only works if Cyberbob is some sort of RB and Ythan is a Godfather taking credit for Cyberbob's blocks. That, or Ythan is some sort of super RB-and-GF scum. Both are unlikely, made even more unlikely by the fact that they would have had to choose to No Kill N3. So, we're back to the triple.

Cyberbob/SC and Cyberbob/Neto strike me as far more likely than SC/Neto. It's the difference between Ythan correctly jailing once and Ythan correctly jailing 3 times. Given that, it makes sense to lynch Cyberbob-scum today and worry about SC vs Neto tomorrow, with more results. (If I'm dead, Ythan can clear someone as not the killer. If I live, I can provide a result, unless Ythan blocks me again. Etc.)

Play-wise on Cyberbob, he's still been on every mislynch, his backing off of DC on Day 1 still doesn't look great, and as I said, a townie vig shouldn't have killed last night for fear of ending the game.

I'm really close (like 97.9%) to voting for Cyberbob, though that Neto/SC pairing still bothers me.

[Ythan]

Love the post, no, if you had to give a simple top two suspects?

[Ythan]

That should say now, not no, so that I don't look like a dick.

[MacavityLock]

Cyberbob #1 obviously. Based on my recent read from yesterday I'd say Neto is #2.

[Ythan]

StrangerCoug-Cyberbob/Neto
Cyberbob-Netopalis/StrangerCoug
Netopalis-Cyberbob/MacavityLock
MacavityLock-Cyberbob/Netopalis

Everyone except Bob had him listed as number one. Bob has Neto, who everyone else other than he himself has listed as number two.

[Netopalis]

And your pairings?