Right. Here's what I think I can safely say:
Facts
- On Day 2, the scoreboard was:
Executive 1st
Judiciary = Legislature 2nd
I.e. d3x was on a different number of points.
- Last night, my faction successfully transmitted a track to Chronopie.
- On each of the last two nights, my faction has used at least one other ability (on N1, one of these abilities ended up targetting RC).
- I have exactly one partner. I'm betting that applied to all the points factions - so Shotty is alone and d3x has one partner.
What I am happy to rely on as true, though it comes from others
- Shotty and d3x have claimed truly. They transmitted abilities very similar to my track, so very likely they are genuine.
- The scoreboard today is given to us by two players. It almost has to be real:
Executive 1st
Judiciary = Legislature
- The Executive sent a watch to Plum.
- The Legislature sent a rolecop to DGB.
What I think is likely to be true
- Since Shotty and d3x are wrong/lying about being on 0 points when I scoreboarded, it's a very good guess that one of them was on 0, and the other wasn't.
- It's pretty likely that I
was
on 0 points at the beginning of day 2. There is some possibility i was either above or below that, but it would need a rare chain of events (the nature of which would give away my role, so you will have to take my word on that). So I surmise that, most likely, Shotty and I were tied on 0 points, with d3x on positive points. This says something about the alignment of, I'm guessing, d3x's partner's target.
- Having said that, I see no motivation for Shotty and d3x to be lying. It's been pretty well demonstrated that holding back information about night actions as other is understood by the town (I think the town has done well in that respect). The most likely reason, I'd guess, would be that they weren't protown, and performed an action which is obviously antitown.
- Either way, we can be certain that Shotty and I scored the same number of points in the last day/night cycle. Which is interesting, because my faction scored -x for yesterday's lynch, where x is 1 or 2. Shotty scored nothing for it. So I certainly outscored Shotty last night, by exactly x points. With the information I have, and ruling out DGB-town, this points strongly to:
DGB other (hostile or non-hostile), Chrono town.
If Chrono is mafia, it would need serious lying on Shotty's part, and some epic losing of points - this seems inconceivable. If Chrono is other, then DGB is certainly scum, but this would need another rare event to have happened.
I'm pretty good at dealing with the possibilities in a situation like this. I'm conferring with my partner as well. Even though I can't share some of the finer details of my reasoning (for fear of outing other night actions and/or my partner), I'd strongly advise you to take this analysis as true insofar as you trust me - I'd be extremely surprised if I was missing anything.
What I think should be done
- d3x's partner needs to speak up in their QT (or here) - likely he has the information to condemn or clear a player. Can someone compile a list of proddable people and get prods on them (I'll do it some time if noone else does)?
- Massclaim is a good plan. My partner has lied/will lie about their role.
- I favour not being shot in the face by Troll. I think I've been pretty helpful to the town whenever that's been possible. Since there's a decent chance d3x is actively lying about his actions, I'd favour shooting him as the most likely of the three of us not be basically protown. Of course, Troll is right not to be shooting until we've sorted out everything we can.
- There's almost certainly more questions I could answer without giving too much away. Feel free to ask me anything that occurs.
TL;DR: most likely DGB is other, and Chrono is town. Significantly less likely, but still possible, is DGB scum and Chrono other.
