I think the vig-directing plan is flawed. I'll point out my reasoning:
Assuming the claim is true, it is quite likely that scum has some powerrole to counteract this, because unlimited vig is debatably one of the most powerful, game-changing roles the town can have. Think Roleblocker, Bus-Driver, Redirector - if any of these roles exist (or essentially any scum role that has the ability to manipulate), then our results will be flawed, as scum can direct traffic or frame someone for the next lynch based on what they stop/change at night. And it is a real possibility it could happen.
But lets look at it from all the possible angles. I'll even include the possibility of me being scum to create an objective post, from the eye of the onlooker;
1)
Hoopla Scum
,
Jacob Town
Well, if this is the case, you should hardly be trusting what I say. So, I'll try to dispute this possibility by being as logical as I can in my position, and showcasing what could happen if this was the case. This is a troubling scenario for town, as my claim, whilst not being universally believed, is quite close to it. Jacob killing me (or any other variant) would be a favourable outcome in this circumstance.
But as I explained before, the likelihood of a manipulation role is quite high (especially in conjunction with a vig). To help accentuate my point, I checked through the last 40 Closed 3:9 Mini Normals, and 25 of them contained a Mafia Roleblocker/Jailkeeper, which is stark odds when you're entrusting a direction style plan to prove/disprove someone.
In this instance, if the town decided to direct Jacob to me, I surely would use my team roleblocker to counteract this ploy (if one exists). If the town were to decide to direct the kill on someone town, surely we would leave him be and reap the favourable benefits of a double town kill. Even though this would prove Jacob's killing ability, there would still be grave concerns about him possibly being a SK.
This is the only real scenario where directing the vigilante kill makes sense. However, it is hampered by dim odds of this being the mix of alignments between I and Jacob, and also the reliance on there not being a scum manipulation role. I hardly think this is a worthwhile chance, and I'm not just arguing this because I am a possible candidate.
Even jacob suiciding is prone to scum manipulation. Assume, safely, that scum has a roleblocker, would it not be in their interest to block a vigilante suicide? They get the glory of killing a townie elsewhere Night 1, set-up a Jacob mislynch tomorrow and get through to Day 3, quite likely untouched, which might I remind you would be mylo.
2)
Hoopla Town
,
Jacob Scum
From my biased perspective, this is the likeliest scenario, although I expect convincing the rest of you should remain harder. The worry with directing the vig kill in this instance is there isn't a kill to direct. Ordinarily we would assume the result of only one kill going through should prove Jacob as scum, but it is not even close to doing so. One night kill could mean that Jacob isn't a vig, but it also could mean scum have a roleblocker and we're in scenario 1, it could mean scum are no-killing to use Jacob's kill and incriminate him at the same time. Or it could be any other number of potential role interactions or gambits.
The bottom line is, one-kill tonight, especially if myself and Jacob are alive tomorrow is a detrimental situation. As it means we're in the same situation as today, but having settled for a sub-optimal lynch yesterday, and then the loss of a townie at night. This is a real possibility if we go down the route of directing the vig kill, and I believe this is a more damaging scenario than any benefits that could be gleaned from this plan.
We've a far better chance of succeeding if we take a risk today on Jacob, or myself, if need be (although I could never endorse this from a personal perspective).
3)
Hoopla Town
,
Jacob Town
Possible, but unlikely. It's been said before, but this would be chaos in a Mini Normal. I've seen some swingy Mini Normal set-ups before, but I think yabba is sensible enough not to go down that route.
In the unlikely situation this is true, scum would be licking their chops with delight, getting rid of one (or two) of the powerroles that could prove most damaging to their success.
4)
Hoopla Scum
,
Jacob Scum
Well, this would have to be an extremely adventurous gambit to go for such distancing. But if this scenario is true, how can you go wrong with lynching one of us today?
There remains plenty of other options if you include the possibility of a SK, but listing all those combinations would be time consuming and I doubt people would read them. Suffice to say, myself and Jacob do have claims decently suited to a would-be SK, and if so, going with the vig-directing plan is likely to fail. We must assume that SK's in Mini Normal's (and in general) are likely to have at least one-shot-bullet protection (possibly unlimited). I don't have the data on this, but it's rare to see a Vanilla SK.
This provides another obstacle in any directing plan, as the introduction of a possibly BP player improves the odds of a one-kill night, which yields no information if we're both alive.
In conclusion, I'm of the opinion we should be lynching one of myself and Jacob, as there is a real chance one of us is scum, or (seemingly) worst-case scenario, a SK. We have no real reason to stall with frivolous plans rife with possible manipulations. Seriously, it won't be a positive result for town.
