Nachomamma8 wrote:Equinox wrote:
Nachomamma8, you just skimmed it, didn't you?
A real cop would've picked that pile to pieces;
instead, you just looked and decided that a couple of isolated paragraphs could be made to look like coaching. Scummy cop ran out of ideas!
First off, this is blatant misrepresentation. I was going to bed in a few minutes (like I said DIRECTLY in the post), which means that of course I'm not going to plunge into any indepth analysis. And in response to the bold, if you want me to pick apart your padded case, I gladly will.
Fine, I missed that part of your post. I did not intend any misrepresentation.
Nachomamma8 wrote:Equinox wrote:
a. Today's lynch was most likely Nobody Special. If Nobody Special had claimed cop instead, it would have appeared very dubious, no matter if it was true or false. He had played scummy in the game, which was why he had suspicion on him in the first place, so it would have been very difficult for Nobody Special to prove that he was really cop.
Okay, let's assume that I am scum with Nobody. Nobody Special claiming cop would've outed the real cop, thus giving me knowledge of the setup and telling me whether I could falseclaim doctor or not. If no cop counterclaimed, there still would be a pretty good chance that Nobody could push a lynch through on the simple principle of him being an uncounterclaimed PR. So, me claiming cop in the beginning means that there's a chance that I'm going to get counterclaimed and lynched, leaving NS in a 3 person LyLo which he has virtually no chance of surviving.
1. You're assuming we even have a cop. Oh, wait. You
are
the cop.
2. On the contrary, I'd argue Nobody Special would have the same amount of difficulty, if not more, than you. We're at a point in the game where both real and fake cops would claim; therefore, we have to examine every claim and counterclaim. Furthermore, we're in a semi-open setup, so Nobody Special will still face difficulty pushing a lynch even if he was a real cop. Nobody Special has not been playing this game in a townish manner.
3. Yes, you claiming cop was a greater risk, assuming you're in his scum team. I did acknowledge that move would potentially reveal both scum on Day 3. However, the amount of risk for such a maneuver does not discredit its possibility.
Nachomamma8 wrote:Equinox wrote:
However, with great risk comes great benefit, and this lies in the unexpectedness of Nachomamma8's claim.
You talk about this amazing benefit of me claiming cop as scum, but you don't actually explain it... You realize this, right?
Do I have to explain it?
I'm not speaking of benefit as in you getting a benefit right this moment. I was speaking in terms of risk-to-benefit. If someone puts in $50 and wins the horse bet, he's not going to get as much as the guy who puts in $500 and wins. By the same token, the guy who puts in $50 won't lose as much as the guy who puts in $500 in the event he loses.
You took a big risk coming out as cop. I've acknowledged the risk is high whether you are town or scum. The benefit I'm talking about in this instance occurs only if you successfully convince Haylen and Thor665; if I lose this LyLo, your faction is secured victory, since Nobody Special has no chance of winning the following LyLo.
From my perspective, you are scummy cop, which means mafia will win this game if you win this argument. If that's not a big prize (benefit) from a big gamble (risk), I don't know what is.
Nachomamma8 wrote:Equinox wrote:
If
Nobody Special
succeeded in convincing you
or
Haylen that I was scum based on night investigation, then town would lose the LyLo, and both scum would emerge scot-free. Great benefits, indeed.
Why do my changes make the benefit anything less?
I am not working from the assumption that Nobody Special would have succeeded because he has zero chance in hell of doing so. His play does not suggest PR play; his play suggests scum play.
However, I'll humor you.
The benefits do not change if Nobody Special claimed cop and successfully convinced at least one townie to his side. The problem I see here is he is not the one claiming cop. He's claiming doctor, and he's failed at it. Therefore, this argument is void.
Nachomamma8 wrote:Equinox wrote:
It is easier for town to believe Nachomamma8 than Nobody Special. Perhaps you two will have some reservations with the claim, but Nachomamma8 has been playing well in this game. I'd gotten town reads from him for most of the game until hohum flipped town; I would not be surprised if both you and Haylen did as well. A Nachoscum8 cop claim would go a lot better than a Nobody Special cop claim, despite the risk.
This is pretty useless. It's easier for town to believe me as opposed to NS because I am the cop, and he isn't...
Of course you would say that.
I'll say this again, and I don't care what role you really are: It's easier for town to believe you because you had played like town. Nobody Special had not.
I find it odd you brushed off the fact that I, as well as Haylen and Thor665, actually did read you as town at least once in this game. But then again, I'm scum, and you don't need to read the words of condemned scum.
Nachomamma8 wrote:Why bring #1 and #3 up? They just make your case look longer.
I'm covering my bases. Got a problem with it?
Nachomamma8 wrote:Now, let me expand on the coaching point. For the first bolded, you said that voting for you would make Thor and Haylen become more suspicious of me, then you said that it would be "the best move for Scummy Special". If you were trying to infer that riding the fence would be the best move for NSscum if he was partner, then I'm not following your logic. If NS suddenly voting you makes ME look scummy, then why wouldn't NS suddenly voting me make you scummy?
You're the one claiming cop. Of course, if Nobody Special had indeed followed me on my word and immediately voted you, you'd have had an easier time convincing town that I was scum and Nobody Special was my partner.
Too bad Nobody Special screwed up. Or was that your plan?
Objectively speaking, it was the best move for Nobody Special because he would not immediately implicate his scum buddy if he rode the fence first. His hesitation here has given Thor665 pause; unfortunately, Thor665 is certain that Nobody Special is the buddy, but Thor665 still cannot make a decision as to which one is town and which one is scum. It's the best move for Scummy Special to ride the fence.
Back to the "painfully obvious" point, I will cede that I failed to mention that it would be obvious Nobody Special was scum if he sided with me. Neither vote would have saved him. The important part is shifting suspicion to either Equinox or Nachomamma8, which I just covered.
Nachomamma8 wrote:For the second bolded, that one shouldn't be hard to figure out. You're telling NS that his fence-sitting is making him look scummier, hell, you even tell him who he should be voting! If that's coaching, then I don't know what is...
Misrepresentation. I am not telling him who to vote. I am telling him that riding the fence is negating his doctor claim.
It looks like I get to explain further, so I'll reference that bolded part again:
Equinox wrote:By all accounts, Nobody Special should not be riding the fence unless he believes there are two liars in this game.
Nobody Special is doctor who was blocked on Night 1. Nachomamma8 is un-CCed cop. Equinox, Haylen, and Thor665 have all denied being cop. If Nobody Special is riding the fence, by logic, he must believe the following two things:
1. You are lying about your cop claim.
2. Equinox, Haylen, or Thor665 are lying about not being cop.
This is how I came to the conclusion that Nobody Special "believes there are two liars." It is impossible for Doctor Special to not believe your cop claim without believing both of the above things.
I love to overexplain, so I'll explain #2 further.
Equinox is obviously not cop. If I was cop, I would have immediately counterclaimed against you either when you initially asked for CCs or later when you posted your investigation. Therefore, it is not possible for Equinox to be lying about not being cop.
Haylen cannot be cop. This is where I cease logic and instead use meta. Haycop, as an experienced IC, would know better than to not counterclaim cop when you initially asked for counterclaims. Further, Haycop would know better than to not counterclaim when you listed your investigations. Therefore, it is not possible for Haylen to be lying about not being cop.
Thor665 cannot be cop. Again, I will use meta. Thor665 was a cop in the past, so he would be familiar with what the cop's responsibilities entail. As an experienced SE, Cop665 would know better than to not counterclaim cop at either scenario you presented. Therefore, it is not possible for Thor665 to be lying about not being cop.
Nobody Special, as doctor who chose, initially, to not trust your cop claim, must believe in the possibility of at least one of the three cops I just posted. However, any of those three being cop is impossible, and this does not require much consideration. Therefore, Doctor Special should not have ridden the fence.
By initially denying the possibility of Nachocop8, Nobody Special is confirmed, in my mind, as mafia.
Nachomamma8 wrote:There's no way I'm hammering; I'm not 100% sold on NS and I don't want to lose.
You're flailing.
Nachomamma8 wrote: I can't help but think that there's a possibilty that we're dealing with a Thor gambit here. But why now, why didn't Thor fake-counterclaim me before, why doesn't he just vote me... Gah.
I thought you already dismissed Thor665 as my possible scum buddy. Why have you pulled him back into the mix?
So meta to judge me, eh? As noted above, I do not believe my vote is impulsive - from my position it is logically obvious and I have explicitly stated why.
