Mini 234: Astuto-Umore (Finished!)

[Yosarian2]

Ok, what's with all the fast random bandwagoning everyone's doing? Is that supposed to be a good idea?

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian: why not? (We meet again! )

Heh...yes, we do.

Well, a rapid random bandwagons seems to be an unusual move this early in day one, at least here on mafiascum, and I am interested in knowing why it is happening. Meta-game reasons, game-theory reasons, stratagy reasons, or just "because day 1 is boring"? Or just total randomness?

On another topic, based the night scene, I suspect that Coran was town, because he was discribed as a "local", and it sounds like the mafia is an outside group.

[Yosarian2]

Well, a rapid random bandwagons seems to be an unusual move this early in day one

It may be a bit fast, but an initial random bandwagon is pretty much standard operating procedure. The only thing that really prevents it is if someone has info Night 1.

(shrug) I don't know...it seems like bandwagons based on some minor thing that someone thinks is a scum tell around page 4 or 5 are more common then truly random bandwagons. It just seemed worth commenting on.

CA: Well, I can't argue with that, Stoofer IS always scum.

[Yosarian2]

Seriously,

unvote: Stoofer

,

vote: CA

. More a feeling, but his last post seems to me like scum trying to add something trivial to the discussion: "Safe to say he's not a vigilante." And I also don't think he is a cop, doc, tracker, etc. Why would you say he isn't a vig?

I think you read his post wrong. He said that it's "safe to say that it's not a vigilante", when talking about the double kill we had last night; he wasn't speculating on anyone's role, he was speculating on what happened last night.

However, now that I think about it, it is a little strange. CA, why are you so sure that one of the kills on Coren last night wasn't a vig? There are several people I know of who would vig killed Coren night 1 given half a chance.

[Yosarian2]

Why are we rushing a lynch based on so little at this point, this early in the game? Don't get me wrong, he's just as likely as anyone else to be scum, but this whole "let's just lynch someone because day 1 never goes anywhere anyway" is just throwing away an entire day for no good reason. If anyone pulls the lever here, this early, on page 4 of the game without any real useful discussion at all for the town having happened on day one, and CA then turns out to be a townie, I will be very unhappy with them.

If we have a more discussion, look in some other directions, and no better target appears, we can lynch CA eventually, but right now I don't think this kind of rush towards a lynch is helpful for the town's chances.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, in this case, you're going to have to give more detail then that, Fritzler. Phoebus came out of yesterday looking like a good guy, I think, and we're not going to lynch him based on some vague hints.

[Yosarian2]

Well, that's interesting, but rather vague. So you're voting for him becuase he crossed the bridge today but not yesterday?

[Yosarian2]

The way he acted during the lynch of CA yesterday tends to make me doubt that Phoebus is scum. So

vote:polarboy

, because if you're telling the truth, then one of them must be scum.

[Yosarian2]

Erm, yes, I knew that. (sigh)

unvote the dead person, as if it mattered

.

Still, let me ask you one question, so I can test your ability. Did you see me cross the bridge either night?

[Yosarian2]

I will confirm that I did made a night choice at least one of those nights.

[Yosarian2]

vote fritzler

I don't believe him.

So, you think his whole play today was some kind of crazy gambit to get Phoebus lynched? Fritzler is an agressive player, but I really don't think it's very likely that scum would try a gambit like that on day 2; if we has just all taken Fritzler's word and lynched phoebus on the spot based on some vauge hints of night information, and phoebus had turned out to be a good guy, fritzler would probably have been lynched the next day. With the scum already down one member, I can't imagine that would be a good trade for them at this point in the game.

[Yosarian2]

It says what town I'm in in my PM.

On the other hand, we do know there are at least some townies in Umore, becasue according to the death scene Polarboy was from Umore.

I know the cat is out of the bag for a lot of you, but everyone should probably stop giving away what town they're from, because that'd make it easier for the mafia to make kills without crossing the bridge, which we don't want.

[Yosarian2]

All right. By my count, that's 4 votes on Draygn_mage, when it's 5 to lynch.

fos:draygn_mage

.
Call that a "might turn into a vote soon" fos. DM, if you want to defend yourself, or roleclaim, or anything, the time to do so is now.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, you're right. In that case

vote:dragyn_mage

I just don't like his play today.

[Yosarian2]

How would crossing the bridge night 1 confirm not mafia people? It'd just show who had night actions and targeted someone from the other town; there might be other scum with night actions.

[Yosarian2]

I don't know, but wouldn't it be a good idea to post our locations?

No. Did you read my last post?

If the mafia knows where all the townie's locations are, then, assuming the mafia has members in both towns, they'd be able to kill whoever they wanted every night without ever having a scum cross the bridge by just sending the scum who's already in that town to do that kill, which would reduce the value of Fritzer's information role to almost zero.

[Yosarian2]

WHY ARE PEOPLE STILL CLAIMING THEIR TOWN????

Anyway, if you're a citizen of astuto, and if the death scene showed that Polorboy a dead town memember from Umore, then why did you think that all the town was on one island and all the scum was on the other?

[Yosarian2]

Hmmm...well, that messes me up, I was all ready to get on and vote for fishbulb first thing today, I really though he was scum.

Could someone outline the arguments against ollo for me, please? I'm not sure I really understood the reasons for that attack yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) Alright, my analysis of the game so far.

There's only been one kill per night, so we're most likely dealing with just one scum group; most common would be a 3 person mafia.

Based on how the CA wagon went day 1, I think that following people are probably not scum with him.

Phoebus : agreed with CA attack early, but didn’t vote for him right away. Voted CA in post 63. Attacked by CA. CA did a weird unvote on Phoebus later; the way he did it makes me pretty sure that his earlier vote for Phoebus wasn't an attempt to distance himself from him. I think he is also a good guy.

Fritzer: used claimed role based informaiton to finish the CA lynch. Very strong role-claim day 2. Probably a GG, although I'm not completly sure.

Kerplunk: Attacked CA post 33, was pretty consistant with attacking him later. I think he's a good guy.

Coolcab also voted for CA. I'm not as sure about being a good guy as I am about the people above, however, because of the timing of his vote; I think he could be a scum who was smart enough to get the bandwagon.

The people who weren't on the bandwagon were me, Ollo, and Mr. Stoofer. From my point of view, Ollo and Mr Stoofer are both strong suspects right now. I doubt Ollo and Mr Stoofer are scum together, because of the way they've been attacking each other, so at this point, I would guess that one of [ollo+Mr Stoofer] is scum, and that whichever one of the two of them is scum, they are probably scum with someone who was on the CA bandwagon, quite possibly coolbot.

[Yosarian2]

Interesting. Just as I was posting that, Coolbot simulposted...with a defense of Ollo. I like my theory even lot more now.

vote:coolbot

FOS:Ollo

[Yosarian2]

All right, sounds good to me.

unvote:coolcab

,

vote:ollo

.

[Yosarian2]

All right, let me try again then.

vote:ollio.

There seems a direct contradition between his roleclaim and Stoofer's investigation, so it seems probable that one of them is lying. And I don't really buy Ollio's claim, either.

[Yosarian2]

All right, let me try again then.

vote:ollio.

Lol. Try again.

And I'll

vote: olio

myself because it is the right thing to do.

(laughs) Heh...yeah, that's what I meant.

vote:olio

just to be sure

[Yosarian2]

Go town!

Yeah, I did kill Coolbot last night, so at least I did something right. I did make a big mistake, though; I guess I should have claimed yesterday, because I got an innocent result on Phoebus night 2 I never got a chance to share, and that almost cost us the game.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, very cool set-up.

One question...aren't there a lot of possible end-game scenerios where the troll can't win, and the game ends in a draw?