Mini 980 - Trader Mafia (Game Over)

[SaintKerrigan]

@ AGM: Of course I was rolefishing. Why is that scummy?

[Andrius]

...
Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum is

only

taking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There is

definitely

a 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)
...

33%? If there are 2 scum on each of the scumteams, then there's 4 scum in 10 players.
So everyone has 10%. Why am I 33% likely?

[Fishythefish]

I dislike SK's play here. I think Almaster has it right; if you know a PR as town, why bother saying "You are a PR. Agree with me or die!"? I can see no town motivation for this play, particularly as SK's belief is that this has marginal impact on Andrius's alignment.

FoS: SK

@SK: is there nothing you can draw from your information about what role and what alignment Andrius has? Please think hard about this.

It should be noted that there are 10 players in this game, and 4 of them are scum. So if you think 2 of 5 PRs are scum, being a PR is a total nulltell.

[zoraster]

Please note that the current bids were incorrect. I'm not sure why, but the automated thing I have set up didn't work. i'm checking into it. If you got a PM telling you what yours assets are, that's the correct result.

I've updated it by hand for now. Sorry for the confusion.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I was belittling your "case".

No, you weren't. How can you belittle my "case" when you're still pretending not getting it?

Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum is only taking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There is definitely a 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)

In other words, you're pulling numbers out of your ass because if you had done it properly, you wouldn't have obtained the conclusion you wanted. My methodology is provably correct.

Also, I'm pursuing other targets by using my vote. I have plenty of reason to unvote. Kiss my ass.

Yeah, Zang is clearly a better vote.

[SaintKerrigan]

If I have other things planned in my mind, that's for me to know and to enact.

So people have absolutely know idea what I'm getting at (or they claim they don't). Let's try this again, in the Dummies! version.

- Andrius has confirmed himself to be a power role
- Before the last purchase, there were six living power roles (we will be working with this from hereon down)
- Because of monetary factors, it's safe to assume that there's one role per person
- Two of the six power roles are definitely scum: Nightkill and Inv. Immunity
- Since two of the six power roles are definitely scum, we get a 2/6 (33%) chance (excluding all other factors) that Andrius is scum
- In my opinion, at least one of the other power roles is also in scum hands
- I also don't think that Andrius was the one to purchase Inv. Immunity
- This completely removes one of the power role options from consideration
- Of the remaining five, one is definitely scum, and I believe that at least one of the other power roles is also scum
- This now makes a 2/5 (40%) chance that Andrius is scum
- All of this is just based on PR speculation. This does not include any other suspicions I might have of Andrius.

Meanwhile, I'm going after other people who are sitting quietly on the sidelines and aren't doing Jack (pun fully intended) while this great debate rages on. This means you, Zang/NS.

Someone let me know when SPS' "case" stops being attempts to provoke a bitchslapping contest, please. Thanks.

Fishy, equating like percentages from different statistics does not make things null in any way whatsoever.

[Zang]

But right now you're MY special lurker. See earlier accusations of not saying much other than going after Jack, etc.

Well, at least I'm trying to contribute instead of just posting mindless comments like "Bidding is so interesting" and "The font size is huge".

Which reminds me

##Vote: Nobody Special

[Fishythefish]

@SK: your conclusion at the end of your analysis is that Andrius is 40% likely to be scum. The baseline probability of someone being scum in this game is 40%. That means that your information says nothing about his alignment. It's nonsensical to call this a "suspicion" of Andrius.

Why did you out Andrius as a PR? I can't see what you were hoping to achieve.

[SaintKerrigan]

@ Fishy: Believe what you will, then.

[Fishythefish]

This is not a matter of opinion.

If you have 10 players in a game, and it's known that there are 4 scum and 6 town. It's known that 2 of the scum are PRs, and three of the town are PRs. Then it is an objective fact that having a PR is a nulltell. How could it possibly reflect on that player's alignment, when the chances that he is scum have not changed?

Regardless, I still want an answer to my question: what did you hope to achieve when you demanded that Andrius claim he was a powerrole?

[SaintKerrigan]

Regardless, I still want an answer to my question: what did you hope to achieve when you demanded that Andrius claim he was a powerrole?

If I have other things planned in my mind, that's for me to know and to enact.

[Fishythefish]

##vote: SK

You wanted Andrius to claim his abilities, without anything that said he was scum. There are scum motives for that, and no town motives that I can see. The mention of possible future plans is not enough for me.

[SaintKerrigan]

*claps gleefully and grabs more popcorn*

[Andrius]

##vote: SK

You wanted Andrius to claim his abilities, without anything that said he was scum. There are scum motives for that, and no town motives that I can see. The mention of possible future plans is not enough for me.

+

*claps gleefully and grabs more popcorn*

=

I don't understand why Kerrigan's gleeful.

[SaintKerrigan]

Not going to be on Mafiascum much today for RL reasons. Just thought you ought to know.

(Posting this in all my games.)

[Andrius]

Its too quiet in here.
We need some people.

[Fishythefish]

Agreed.

@mod:

could we get some prods please? You don't seem to have any prod/replace rules, but I reckon farside, Zajnet and easjo all need them.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

We need

some

more people voting SaintKerrigan.

Fixed!

[Zajnet]

...
Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum is

only

taking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There is

definitely

a 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)
...

33%? If there are 2 scum on each of the scumteams, then there's 4 scum in 10 players.
So everyone has 10%. Why am I 33% likely?

My god the math is all screwed up by everyone except maybe Fishy. Everyone has 40% chance of being scum because of the 4 in 10 thing. Not 10%. Not 33%.

[Andrius]

...
Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum is

only

taking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There is

definitely

a 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)
...

33%? If there are 2 scum on each of the scumteams, then there's 4 scum in 10 players.
So everyone has 10%. Why am I 33% likely?

My god the math is all screwed up by everyone except maybe Fishy. Everyone has 40% chance of being scum because of the 4 in 10 thing. Not 10%. Not 33%.

I fail so hard there.

[zoraster]

Day 2 Vote Count

Nobody Special ( 1 ) Zang,
farside22 ( 0 )
Zang ( 1 ) SaintKerrigan,
SaintKerrigan ( 3 ) Steam-Powered Shovel, AlmasterGM, Fishythefish,
Zajnet ( 0 )
easjo682 ( 0 )
Andrius ( 2 ) Zajnet, Nobody Special,
Fishythefish ( 0 )
Steam-Powered Shovel ( 0 )
AlmasterGM ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 3 ) farside22, Andrius, easjo682
Total Votes ( 10 )
Deadline: June 25th at 23:00 EDT
With 10 total votes, 6 needed to lynch.

A couple of prods out and I'm looking for a replacement for farside who had to back out.

[AlmasterGM]

Back.

Regardless of how the math works out, what SK did was still scummy because he didn't draw any implications from it. If he was like, "claim now" and then used that claim to draw a conclusion, then it'd be fine, but nothing like that happened. For all effective purposes, we are still at square one with Andrius, except now the scum know he bought a PR.

[SaintKerrigan]

AGM assumes too much, methinks. Answer me this: why are the things I've done regarding Andrius scummy?

For the rest of you, aside from my recent shenanigans, why am I scum? (Steam is not free to answer this question because I already know he is a shut-down hypertunneling townie. Kinda reminds me of Cyberbob in Mini 934, eh Steam?)

[Fishythefish]

@SK: you are scum because of your recent shenanigans. I have no read on the rest of your play.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Steam is not free to answer this question because I already know he is a shut-down hypertunneling townie. Kinda reminds me of Cyberbob in Mini 934, eh Steam?

I totally am free to answer the question. You might not want me to, but you can't impugn my right of free speech.