ugh, could you make a quick recap as to what to watch for? I am unwilling (read: lazy) to read trough and come to conclusions on my own.I suggest everybody read newbie 128.
I think barbarians might have "investigation protection" instead of doc protection on their units. Also, Vigkill might be overkill in a barbarians hand, so that one is most probably replaced with some other power, too.What about barbarians developing stuff (they almost certainly will have a faster tech tree than us, or get better units than us at each stage).
...
I'm assuming that he's spent more time polishing up this game.
No, that is not true. By that logic only 10 people would be needed for a sure scumcatch, and the rest could rest/advance/build. However many players you put on, you will never reach 100%. Its like throwing a dice 6 times and saying its sure that you got a 6er. (Because every throw has a 1/6 chance of being 6). It simply not how probabilities work. My calculation is the correct way to do it.But the percentage across the entire town is a simple addition
Any suggestions on these? I had the impression earlyer that EmpTyger might be one, but he pretty much cleared himself by now.Or even just pick the people we think are scummy
What? You think a disagreement on a breaking-nonbreaking issue is sign for scum? It is not, so why should he voted for one?if he didnt want to break the game he should have voted for one of the people sugesting it
There were quiet a few poeple disagreeing and a few agreeing with it, yet they did not brake into a vote-the-opposition fest, I understand the logic behind why you think he should have voted, but seeing as others have also not voted I dont think that was very scummy either. Except for the lurking.Vismaior - i think roland, if he strongly disagreed with the breaking of the game he could have shown his disproval by voting the person who is giving it. insteaded he lurks and keeps a random vote.
Been there, done that. And a godfather, no less, too.I've always wanted to lynch a lurker on day 1.
What? I dont think 3 before lynch is that small a margin. Even with 4 scums, there is chance that 1 or 2 are already on the bandwagon, so no real threat to swinkee yet. Tough I agree that we should wait for a claim.There seems to be a whole lot of nothing building on swinkee. Lurker voting I'm all in favor of, but suddenly 7 of 10 needed? I smell barbarian hordes... which aren't "fun" in my world.
Could you explain that?I dont think scum will dare to vote swinkee off, before he appears to claim.either swinkee is scum or there are some DEFINITE scum late onto that bandwagon.
Me too, but killing off a lurker is better than nothing, and deadline+people not actieve=bandwagon to avoid a nolynch, at least thats what I learned in math class.I would much rather prefer to lynch Thok than swinkee.
The thing is that double investigations cancel out by the chance of no investigation at all. So yes, it was counted for.But have you figured in double investigations into your equation?
There. 40% success rate, because of all horsemen. My math is correct, I do not fuck up 2 times.Let:
I = total innocent
G = total guilty
T = total town (T = I + G)
P = probability of success
s = chance of success for 1 townsperson on a given night
S = chance of success for all townspeople on a given night
The chance s of success for 1 townsperson is given by s = P * G / T
Thus the chance of 1 townsperson failing is 1 - s
The chance that every townsperson fails is (1 - s)^I
Thus the chance S of at least one townsperson succeeding is given by S = 1 - (1 - s)^I
With the 16:4 setup, I = 16, G = 4, T = 20, and letting P = 40%:
s = 8%, S = ~74%
If not to increase chances of finding scum, what is the benefit of coordinated investigations?The math is correct in that blind vs. coordinated doesn’t increase the chance of success, but that’s not the benefit for coordination
We might consider killing off the plague...Oh my God ! Dybeck has caght the BJite. Careful, it may be contagious...
If it spreads, that would be devastating.... 
Yes, I`d love to. No problem, we have time.If you want me to go into more detail, hold in mind that you're asking for a 4000-word post. It'll take time for me to write it up and time for you to read it
Simply put, if you actually WERE town and HAD upgraded, you would know that you don't receive your results until the next night begins.
Not paying much attention, eh, Puzzle?, I would ask that you wait until HezL clarifies
What are you talkin about? d8P already votes EMPTyger...Meanwhile, I don't understand why d8P doesn't want us to lynch someone if they're a barbarian. And one too many WHAT? Unvote: Bamboomancer, Vote: EmpTyger.
I always topught EmpTyger as protown mainly of his reasoning earlyer. I screwed up my math and then he corrected me to a wrong formula. Im not sure if it was intentional tough. Altough the "simple addition" technique he proposed was so blatantly false that even I figured out that one. Might have been an honest mistake. The thing that bothers me is that scum would have been better off supporting my wrong numbers, so the correcting me thing speaks in his favor. Given the raw power of an allcop town, scum might decide to take a gamble, even when sacrificing their own.My plan might arguably gain knowledge for scum, but at the cost of sacrificing 2 scum, one of who would be seeming extremely innocent given the level of suspicion I directed at Thok. And possibly more than 2, since mafia would not have had a chance to coordinate before my proposal was done.
