Mini 973: "Bawhston" Brawl (WHAT A WIN!)

[q21]

Vote Nikanor

For all the same reasons I was voting him yesterday, in addition to hammering someone he seemed not to think was scum (and who turned out not to be). Given that two of our dead townies agreed with this read I'm happy to stick with it.

[havingfitz]

MS, how do you think we should go about doing well without doing a massclaim?

Scumhunt of course~

Vote:HavingFitz

You were second on my list, and scummy besides. -shrugs- No hard feelings dude

I don't mind your vote but it would be nice if you gave some reasoning other than pushing a policy lynch. Is that all you have to warrant a vote on me?
I guess it's more than what you had on TBM when you voted him though.

A quick ISO of you shows you really haven't done much of anything so far in this game. Other than back a mass claim...with the provision that its the right thing to do. So PC of you. Too bad I'm voting Nik or you'd have my vote.

[yabbaguy]

A compass is intricately engraved in the ground beneath the feet of the mob members, with each one interestingly standing on one of the eight cardinal and intermediate points of it. Literally, they must now choose which direction to take to get an infiltrator lynched.

Vote Count:

5 to lynch

Nikanor (2): havingfitz, q21
havingfitz (1): Midnight's Sorrow

Nonvoters: Nikanor, Hoopla, Oso, Gwynplaine, InflatablePie

Deadline: 6/30 @ 6 PM GMT-4. No Lynch occurs if this elapses.

InflatablePie hits prodding range in about 30 minutes.

[Oso]

Well, I haven't quite finished a re-read yet (having trouble finding the time to be able to read and think at the same time, during the week) but here are some thoughts that have occurred to me while trying.

Worst case scenario 3:1:8 and we mis-lynch today, then Mafia wins tomorrow morning as we come out tomorrow with a 3 Town : 3 Mafia balance.

This presupposes that there is no Pro-Town killing/protective roles out there.

A Vig or Doctor could quite naturally prevent that.

Better case scenario 2:1:9. Mis-lynch today means tomorrow starts with 4 Town : 2 Mafia.

The point of all that above? Hoopla's idea of a mass-claim is starting to sound better to me. If we are in a 3:1:8 setup with no Town killing/protective PRs, then we

HAVE

to lynch right today.

Granted, there are roles out there that can alter the above if their players use them properly but since I'm going to go ahead and use the worse case scenario and assume that any killing/protective roles the town have are going to be ineffective during the night. A Mass RC isn't a bad way to go, in my opinion, as it opens the door to counter-claims and post re-analysis based on claimed roles.

I'm going to hold off voting right now because, in all honesty, I'd rather have the RCs as additional info before committing my vote to anyone at this point. Especially in light of how wrong I was about TBM's alignment.

[Nikanor]

Well I'm just going to claim right now, since I'm probably going to be pushed to L-1 eventually anyway.
I'm a cop. I got a town result on q21 night one and no result on havingfitz last night.

[InflatablePie]

Sorry guys, I spent one night too long at my girlfriend's house.

Catching up now.

[InflatablePie]

Seems I haven't missed much. I have no problem with a massclaim. Shall we set an order or anything like that? Assuming everyone's alright with doing this.

@Nik, may I ask what prompted you to scan q21?

[Nikanor]

q21 was scummy, and I figured he'd be the best "confirmed townie," so to speak, because he has the capacity for usefulness.

[Oso]

Hoopla has already claimed as has Nik.

If we presuppose that Nik is true claiming, then I'd suggest that q21 claim next if we are going to go for the mass-claim. As to the rest, I'm not sure except to say that I personally have no problem giving my RC anywhere in the order though.

[Nikanor]

q21 is town, unless I'm insane. I suppose there is a mafia roleblocker who blocked me last night, meaning there shouldn't be a mafia godfather unless the town is overpowered.

[Nikanor]

Oh, I forgot where I was going with that.
Basically, if we're MCing, I don't think that q21 should claim.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

RC:Vanilla Townie

After a warm welcome to Beantown, I was told I have no ability other then my vote during the day. How exceptional!!

[yabbaguy]

Recognizing multiple players are claiming roles in-thread, I remind you that if you are ever in doubt as to the legality of a role paraphrase, you privately ask me first.

Vanilla PM is the exception since I put it in the opening post.

[InflatablePie]

Claim:

[havingfitz]

Hoopla...in your database of game setups...how often are there Cops included in games with SKs and or PGOs? Though my vote is on Nik...barring a counterclaim I am inclined to believe him.

Which if I am to continue believing Hoopla's claim leaves the, assuming, three remaining mafia members to be within this group: Midnight's Sorrow, Inflatable Pie, Oso, and Gwynplaine. Which would also be the order I would suspect them.

Unvote

I will vote Midnight's Sorrow once the MC is over assuming nothing contradicts Nik's claim.

[havingfitz]

Oh...and I'm vanilla townie.

[Gwynplaine]

Vanilla townie here as well. I have other thoughts but I'll wait until everybody's claimed. Which is Oso and q21 at this point, unless I missed something.

[yabbaguy]

For what it's worth, InflatablePie actually was never prodded. I was expecting to do it when I came home, then he posted in the interim.

Meanwhile, Hoopla receives another prod now.

[Oso]

Vanilla townie here as well. I have other thoughts but I'll wait until everybody's claimed. Which is Oso and q21 at this point, unless I missed something.

I think you are correct. Q21 and myself and I'll fix half of that now.

Claim:

Vanilla Townie

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: PGO
Nikanor: Cop
Oso: VT
havingfitz: VT
InflatablePie: VT
Midnight's Sorrow: VT
Gwyplaine: VT
q21: ?

With Nikanor clearing q21, I'm very inclined to believe his claim. Two town PR's against four anti-town roles almost confirms them as town, because this is the minimum threshold you could possibly go to balance-wise in such a set-up. It's possible that we're playing in a 2:1:9 set-up, but cops don't usually fit that set-up. At the moment, I'd prefer q21 not to claim unless he has significant information that can improve lynch odds today. He is almost certain to town, and I'd rather use him as a trump card as opposed to making him claim now. I trust q21 has the capacity to deem the risk versus reward of claiming in this scenario.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla...in your database of game setups...how often are there Cops included in games with SKs and or PGOs? Though my vote is on Nik...barring a counterclaim I am inclined to believe him.

The introduction of the PGO role to Mini Normals is a more recent enterprise, although I only remember seeing 2-3 Mini Normal games with the PGO role - they're slightly more common in Large games, but even then, variants like Bomb and Supersaint are still used more often. So, any data involving that role is far too small a sample to gauge anything. Cop + SK is a far more usable piece of data - here is what I've found in 3:1:8 set-ups;

72 games

63 with a Town Cop
9 without a Cop

Normally this would be jarringly conclusive evidence for the existance of the cop, but these statistics lie a little bit. From Mini 44 (where the records start) to about Mini 350, 3:1:8's were the most common set-up, which was a time-frame where cop was almost universally used, not just in 3:1:8's, but in all set-ups. It's only been the last 2-3 years where role variety has given mods enough options to avoid using cops and even doctors. For reference, here is the data dump;

Mini 64 - Cop
Mini 82 - Cop
Mini 85 - Cop
Mini 97 - Cop
Mini 101 - Cop
Mini 108 - Cop
Mini 113 - Cop
Mini 124 - Cop
Mini 128 - Cop
Mini 133 - Cop
Mini 145 - Cop
Mini 149 - Cop
Mini 153 - Cop
Mini 159 - Cop
Mini 161 - Cop
Mini 166 - N/A
Mini 184 - Cop
Mini 187 - Cop
Mini 192 - Cop
Mini 201 - Cop
Mini 203 - Cop
Mini 209 - Cop
Mini 211 - Cop
Mini 217 - Cop
Mini 229 - Cop
Mini 235 - Cop
Mini 242 - Cop
Mini 254 - Cop
Mini 255 - Cop
Mini 262 - Cop
Mini 275 - Cop
Mini 280 - Cop
Mini 295 - Cop
Mini 297 - N/A
Mini 301 - Cop
Mini 307 - Cop
Mini 308 - Cop
Mini 342 - Cop
Mini 355 - Cop
Mini 358 - Cop
Mini 391 - Cop
Mini 414 - Cop
Mini 441 - Cop
Mini 451 - Cop
Mini 462 - Cop
Mini 474 - Cop
Mini 499 - Cop
Mini 501 - Cop
Mini 504 - Cop
Mini 506 - Cop
Mini 545 - Cop
Mini 553 - Cop
Mini 564 - N/A
Mini 585 - Cop
Mini 592 - Cop
Mini 608 - Cop
Minvitational 8 - Cop
Mini 618 - Cop
Minvitational 10 - N/A
Mini 662 - N/A
Mini 716 - N/A
Mini 722 - Cop
Mini 725 - Cop
Mini 735 - Cop
Mini 745 - Cop
Mini 781 - N/A
Mini 784 - Cop
Mini 802 - Cop
Mini 842 - N/A
Mini 844 - Cop
Mini 851 - N/A
Mini 905 - Cop

It's quite visible to the eye, the dwindling use of the 3:1:8 set-up. The gaps between numbers get larger and larger, whilst the gaps between N/A's for cops shrinks and shrinks. It's still weighted toward a cop being in a 3:1:8 set-up, but it's hard to determine the true chance based purely on stats, because the recent trend makes up only a small portion of the sample size.

A more convincing piece of evidence for Nikanor is from a balance perspective. The games without cops in this set were significantly offset with other power, such as trackers, watchers, vigs, gunsmiths, usually with 3-4 town power roles. I think you can get away with balancing 3:1:8's with only 2 town power roles, but they would need to be strong. And cops are strong.

Our scum team lies in the pool of vanillas.

[Hoopla]

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element.

You could have assumed this yesterday. Why did this sudden change of heart come about today?

[Hoopla]

Oh, and Gwynplaine is scum by the way;

Vote: Gwynplaine

[InflatablePie]

I think I'm gonna go with fitz, personally. This recent post in particular has caught my eye, as he seems to get angry at MS for voting him, then proceeds to deflect suspicion on to MS. I don't like this. Then there's this where his "sudden change of heart" on Hoopla seems odd, as well as the cheesy "RIP TBM/Furry" comment - and this is funny because he was the first vote on TBM the day of his lynch. These two posts are from today - I don't have much time at the moment to look back at all of his posts. I'll just leave this here:

Vote: havingfitz

I like MS as an alternative - mostly because I can barely remember one of Gwyn's posts and I highly doubt Oso is scum. So for the four 'nillas, I'd go fitz > MS >= Gwyn > Oso.

I'll check Gwyn out in ISO when I get the chance, so I can make a more definitive stance on the middle two.

[Oso]

- snip -

At the moment, I'd prefer q21 not to claim unless he has significant information that can improve lynch odds today.

- snip -

Strongly disagree here. The rest of the thread has claimed, best to get his as well. It's not like scum is going to be able to use his claim to eliminate a safe claim.