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Post Post #475 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 4:09 am

Post by Hoopla »

Oso wrote:
Hoopla wrote:- snip -

At the moment, I'd prefer q21 not to claim unless he has significant information that can improve lynch odds today.

- snip -
Strongly disagree here. The rest of the thread has claimed, best to get his as well. It's not like scum is going to be able to use his claim to eliminate a safe claim.
Well, you're very wrong. Because unless you think Nikanor is fake-claiming, q21 is town.

The only benefits that come from q21 claiming is that we clear another player, or incriminate someone else as scum. If he can't do that now, he should not claim. He may have a role that has an ability to take away the certainty of scum's actions at night (read: roleblocker, doctor, 1-shot-vig, redirector etc.) - that is an advantage not worth parting with for no gain.

Tell me the benefits of q21 claiming. Saying he should claim because everyone else did isn't a reason.
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Post Post #476 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 6:25 am

Post by Oso »

Hoopla wrote:Tell me the benefits of q21 claiming. Saying he should claim because everyone else did isn't a reason.
I'll reserve further comment until we hear from q21.
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Post Post #477 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 6:28 am

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Oso wrote:
Hoopla wrote:Tell me the benefits of q21 claiming. Saying he should claim because everyone else did isn't a reason.
I'll reserve further comment until we hear from q21.
I'll take it there is no benefits then.
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Post Post #478 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 6:40 am

Post by Oso »

Don't make assumptions simply to give your brain a workout. My comment means exactly what it says, I reserve any further comment on the subject until we hear from q21. No more, no less.

After I know that, I may or may not take up the argument again.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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Post Post #479 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 7:12 am

Post by Hoopla »

Oso wrote:Don't make assumptions simply to give your brain a workout. My comment means exactly what it says, I reserve any further comment on the subject until we hear from q21. No more, no less.

After I know that, I may or may not take up the argument again.
No, you've expressed an interest in wanting a claim from q21, and then 'strongly disagreed' with my rationale opposing the idea. To strongly disagree must mean you have some pro-town reasoning behind why q21 claiming is more beneficial than him not claiming. If your logic is one that required reservations, you shouldn't have been asking him to claim in the first place.

I don't know if you're just biding your time, or you actually have a good reason for him to claim, but I'll eagerly await your comments. I dislike the clause at the end of your post, because I don't think you have a say whether or not the argument comes up - you have to explain why you strongly disagreed with me.
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Post Post #480 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 7:33 am

Post by Oso »

No I don't. If you think the reason that I did that is scummy, then by all means, convince the rest of the thread that is so and have me lynched. But I certainly don't have to explain my reasoning to the person who first advanced the idea of a mass claim and then tries to stop it one short of an actual mass claim. q21 is the only person right now that has the standing to object to his RCing as I see it.

The mass claim was suggested, he voted Nik, and as far as I can see he may not even have been on since since the MassRC sort of spontaneously happened. I modified my position after I thought on that. If he claims, argument over. If not and he advances good reasons why he feels it is not in the town's best interest for him to RC, I'll take those into consideration before I decide to continue my argument or not.
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Post Post #481 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 7:37 am

Post by Nikanor »

And Oso races onto Nikanor's suspicion list at the speed of light!

I think that Gwynplaine is the most likely candidate to have picked up my coptells and roleblocked me.

Vote: Gwynplaine.
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Post Post #482 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 8:00 am

Post by Hoopla »

Oso wrote:No I don't. If you think the reason that I did that is scummy, then by all means, convince the rest of the thread that is so and have me lynched. But I certainly don't have to explain my reasoning to the person who first advanced the idea of a mass claim and then tries to stop it one short of an actual mass claim. q21 is the only person right now that has the standing to object to his RCing as I see it.

The mass claim was suggested, he voted Nik, and as far as I can see he may not even have been on since since the MassRC sort of spontaneously happened. I modified my position after I thought on that.
If he claims, argument over. If not and he advances good reasons why he feels it is not in the town's best interest for him to RC, I'll take those into consideration before I decide to continue my argument or not.
I don't think I find you scummy for this, because you sound sincere in your arguments, but your logic is flawed or we understand each other differently, and I am trying to point out why, so the town doesn't make a suboptimal move. For those following this debate, Oso's second paragraph (see bolded) pretty much sums up his position in my mind, and I will counter that.

You say that
he
needs to advance reasons why him not claiming is beneficial for the town, and if he claims, that's fine. Usually in a game, the two options all players have at all times is claiming and not claiming. Claiming once done, isn't reversable. Not claiming is. Therefore one 'claiming' must provide reasons why it is more protown for her to claim than stay quiet.

And I think I know how this misunderstanding started. You're operating under the guise that since we are massclaiming, this is now the functional, default option that
reverses
the 'claiming/not claiming' option. Claiming now becomes the default in a massclaim, and you must provide reason against this not to claim. Right? I'm not misrepresenting you here?

When you consider what massclaim aims to do - hopefully confirm people as town or scum, or at least give hints either way on your own (or others) alignment, it doesn't make sense for q21 to claim, because we have already confirmed him as town. I think I followed this logical path without really acknowledging it in my arguments. So, unless he can give reasonable insight into anyone elses alignment from his role information, there is no reason for him to claim, because we gain nothing.
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Post Post #483 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 8:38 am

Post by Oso »

Think for a second Nik (no sarcasm intended there). Before Q21 even makes a comment on whether he wants to RC or not we already have 2 people who are against it in some way. You and then Hoopla.

You yourself raised the fact that there is a possibility you are a flavor cop here:
Nikanor wrote:q21 is town,
unless I'm insane
. I suppose there is a mafia roleblocker who blocked me last night, meaning there shouldn't be a mafia godfather unless the town is overpowered.
Now my main problem with him not even being asked to RC is that he avoids any comments that might reflect on your sanity. You may be a straight cop with no sanity issues but if you are insane or naive, then perhaps a clue to that is in how q21 chooses to justify his not RCing if he, in fact, chooses to not RC.

[edit before submit, Hoopla posted while I was composing this]


@Hoopla. I think you pretty much hit on the head. The default is "claim under pressure or claim when you can do the most good for your side" and the requisite suspicions attach to both. With the Mass-Claim, the default flip/flops. Not claiming then automatically becomes suspicious as do those who support a non-claim. Justifying a non-claim becomes almost a prerequisite.

@All Players.
Granted, I believe the odds of Nik being a flavor cop are low. Maybe even low enough to be dismissed out of hand. Part of this is playstyle, I have never been comfortable with mass-claims but have seen how they can be beneficial on occasion (this was one of them, the usual methods aren't working) however, I have never been comfortable with a person being exempt from it without at least justifying why they should be exempt. The player themselves justifying it, not relying on others in the thread to make the argument for him.

And for the Mass RC to be a bit more structured to avoid this type of situation and accomplish what Hoopla said here:
Hoopla wrote:-snip-

When you consider what massclaim aims to do - hopefully confirm people as town or scum, or at least give hints either way on your own (or others) alignment, it doesn't make sense for q21 to claim, because we have already confirmed him as town. I think I followed this logical path without really acknowledging it in my arguments. So, unless he can give reasonable insight into anyone elses alignment from his role information, there is no reason for him to claim, because we gain nothing.
Unfortunately, there is plenty of fodder in the thread now where he can pick and choose reasons not to claim without having to think of any on his own and, again unfortunately, they are all reasons he would use if he were town so there is no way to differentiate between an honest response and a contrived one.

That was one of the reasons I hoped he would post before we got in too deeply. It cuts both ways here.

Town: He uses many of the same reasons advanced and they are honest reasons, but tainted now because of previous discussion.

Scum: He has plenty of usable excuses that bear up under scrutiny and avoids mistakenly pulling a boner that may have some indication, however unlikely that it is, that Nikanor is not a sane cop.
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Post Post #484 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 8:48 am

Post by Oso »

Double post.

I re-read and may have been unclear in what I am trying to say. I am less interested in the RC's of the Mass Claim as I was more interested in if anyone objected to giving and RC and what their reasons might be for not RCing.
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Post Post #485 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 9:13 am

Post by Midnight's Sorrow »

It's bettween Fitz and Gwyn for em as the scum. Since Nik says Gwyn may have more tendency to have picked up his cop-tells, and I beleive Nik to be said cop, Ima trust him on this~

Unvote
Vote:Gwynplaine
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Post Post #486 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 9:54 am

Post by q21 »

Firstly

Unvote


He claimed early and therefore appears to not be worried by a possible counter-claim, it also doesn't seem like he was trying to force one. He got my alignment right, ie he didn't make the attempt to frame me and get mislynch and possible victory on the spot. And yes, that means I'm town and he's sane.

As for a full RC, I don't think I will. At this point the town knows I'm town; any more information than that would, I think, help the scum more.

Finally, I apologise for the low activity. I have a deadline on Tuesday and probably won't be able to make a more than a post or two a day until that's pasted. Thereafter a reread is in order to decide where to stick my vote. Gwyn or fitz look best, but that's just from memory and I'm not trusting enough of that memory to vote on it. Also, still not 100% certain on Hoopla's claim.
"I can't not give mad props to the murderbot 9000 that was q21." - Spyrex, after Scummies Invitational 2010.

You know those times when you wish you could think of something really funny or interesting to say, but just can't?... Yep, this is one of those times.
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Post Post #487 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 10:14 am

Post by havingfitz »

Hoopla wrote:
havingfitz wrote:I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element.
You could have assumed this yesterday. Why did this sudden change of heart come about today?
I didn't really give you much thought yesterday as I carried my D1 vote/suspicions over to D2 up through his lynch.

Why the vote on Gwynpaine. Curious since of the four scum candidates I have remaining after the PGO claim and the cop + results (MS, IP, Oso, GP), he's last on my list.

Midnight Sorrow's previous weak vote on me coupled with her current, even greater, weak vote comes across as an opportunistic pile-on to Gwyn and solidifies the vote that I said earlier this day was heading her way.

Vote: Midnight's Sorrow
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Post Post #488 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 10:19 am

Post by Midnight's Sorrow »

havingfitz wrote:
Midnight Sorrow's previous weak vote on me coupled with her current, even greater, weak vote comes across as an opportunistic pile-on to Gwyn and solidifies the vote that I said earlier this day was heading her way.

Vote: Midnight's Sorrow
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Post Post #489 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 10:28 am

Post by havingfitz »

Midnight's Sorrow wrote:*clenches fist*.....-.-......D:< IM NOT A SHE!!!! ARRRRRRRRGHH! GET IT RIGHT!!!!
Sorry...maybe they'll reinstall the gender symbols.
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Post Post #490 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 11:29 am

Post by Hoopla »

I have some pretty damning evidence against Gwynplaine here guys. Here are the vote counts from the first two days. I've gone to the liberty of greening the name of Nikanor, q21 and Hoopla on these vote counts, as we are all quite likely town. If you want to debate this with me, do it now, because I am making assumptions based on this information.

Page 8 Vote Count:


Slepz (5):
xRECKONERx
,
JacobSavage
,
Nikanor, Hoopla
, Gwynplaine
TheButtonmen
(3): Oso,
q21
, InflatablePie
Hoopla
(2): Slepz, havingfitz
Gwynplaine (1):
TheButtonmen


Nonvoters:
Furry


Page 9 Vote Count:


Slepz (5):
xRECKONERx
,
Nikanor, Hoopla
, Gwynplaine,
JacobSavage

TheButtonmen
(3): Oso,
q21
, InflatablePie
JacobSavage
(2):
Furry
, havingfitz
Gwynplaine (1):
TheButtonmen

Hoopla
(1): Slepz


Page 10 Vote Count:


JacobSavage
(6):
Furry
, havingfitz, Gwynplaine,
xRECKONERx
,
q21, Hoopla

Slepz (2):
Nikanor
,
JacobSavage

TheButtonmen
(2): Oso, InflatablePie
Gwynplaine (1):
TheButtonmen

Hoopla
(1): Slepz


DAY 2


Page 13 Vote Count:


TheButtonmen
(4):
Hoopla
, havingfitz, Oso, InflatablePie
dsister (2):
Nikanor
, Gwynplaine

Nonvoters:
q21
, dsister,
TheButtonmen, Furry


Page 15 Vote Count:


TheButtonmen
(4): havingfitz, Oso, InflatablePie, Midnight's Sorrow
Nikanor
(2):
q21, Furry

Hoopla
(1): Gwynplaine
InflatablePie (1):
Hoopla

Midnight's Sorrow (1):
Nikanor

q21
(1):
TheButtonmen


Final Vote Count:


TheButtonmen
(6): havingfitz, Oso, InflatablePie, Midnight's Sorrow,
Hoopla, Nikanor

Nikanor
(3):
q21, Furry, TheButtonmen

Midnight's Sorrow (1): Gwynplaine


Looking at the vote counts on Day 1, we've really got a lot of names filled in now. The Page 8 count showcases the first time Gwynplaine makes a 'tilt' vote in this game. A vote which pushes one into the probability of being lynched or forced to claim. It's quite a safe vote from a scum perspective too, as there has been no other mafia there, so there isn't the fear of being tied with other scumbuddies. I'm becoming increasingly confident Midnight is town if Gwynplaine is scum, mostly because Gwyn constantly pushes this wagon throughout the game.

Most damaging to Gwyn is the Page 13 vote count. Just look how scum-driven that Buttonmen wagon is - three unconfirmed players all in a row. There is almost no way from a probabilistic and behavioural perspective that all of these players are scum. Scum would have had to
specifically
plan to jump on in a row like this as some sort of bizarre distancing, and I cannot see those three players doing that. It is quite rare to see a scumteam put all their eggs in one basket and go back to back on the same wagon (especially early), and I've only ever seen it once in a Large Normal in an experienced scumteam that deliberately planned for it. I've talked about this before, but scum have a collective conciousness that subliminally registers their partners suspicions, and have tendancies to err towards a 'good cop/bad cop' mentality. It's a subconciousness sort of distancing, because they fear being linked too easily with one another. Very often when a big topic or large wagon forms, scum will be very careful to differ from at least one of their partners.

This heavily incriminates Gwyn - because he is on a rival wagon, and if my theory about Midnight being town is right, it pins two scum on the Buttonman lynch, which is what I expect. I'm very confident that Gwyn is scum, and am currently favouring havingfitz/InflatablePie as his teammates.

I hope everyone takes a look over these voting patterns though, because they are quite illuminating.
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Post Post #491 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 11:40 am

Post by Hoopla »

InflatablePie wrote: I like MS as an alternative -
mostly because I can barely remember one of Gwyn's posts
and I highly doubt Oso is scum. So for the four 'nillas, I'd go fitz > MS >= Gwyn > Oso.

I'll check Gwyn out in ISO when I get the chance, so I can make a more definitive stance on the middle two.
Here's another good reason. He is the definition of 'flying under the radar'.
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Post Post #492 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 11:41 am

Post by yabbaguy »

Suddenly, out of the corner of their eye, the mob catches that same old woman from Day 1 approaching Long Wharf distantly. She isn't in any hurry, and doesn't seem very concerned. It's probably just a coincidence she's here. She's probably just enjoying the scenery.


Vote Count:


5 to lynch

Gwynplaine (3): Hoopla, Nikanor, Midnight's Sorrow
havingfitz (1): InflatablePie
Midnight's Sorrow (1): havingfitz

Nonvoters (now alphabetically sorted): Gwynplaine, Oso, q21

Deadline: 6/30 @ 6 PM GMT-4. No Lynch occurs if this elapses.
Buttons in the opening post should work now.
Last edited by yabbaguy on Sun Jun 20, 2010 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #493 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 12:02 pm

Post by Oso »

Pending a few things I'm going to go back and look at as a check to a faulty memory, I am going to go ahead in my mind put Nik and q21 into confirmed town. This is the point in the game for me that I have to start making definite choices based on what is there to see rather than what might be there, if that makes any sense.

Hoopla, I still don't like the early RC but, in all honesty even despite our recent disagreement, I don't see anything that screams scum or even indicates it (although, I wouldn't mind knowing what that seemingly bizarre series of posts were yesterday). So I am putting her and Midnight Sorrow in the 'most probably town' category in my head. Midnight Sorrow gets there mainly based on slepz D1 play. I'll explain that one in detail if anyone wants. Basically, I don't see a call for 'policy lynch' in his posts. It is close to the line but I think Midnight Sorrow inherited a bad rap for that.

So that leaves Gwyne, Inflatable and fitz (and myself, of course). Hoopla's points on Gwyne's voting patterns are compelling once pointed out.

I'll make a vote and reasons for that vote once I go back and check some things.
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Post Post #494 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 12:21 pm

Post by Midnight's Sorrow »

I honestly don't like how Gwyn has been trying to make people slip up. Hoping that people make contradictory posts, and jump on it like its hot! hot! hot!!

Scum mostly do this in my limited experience, for it certainly makes for an 'easy' target. Town doesn't like liars caught in a lie, and therefore would jump on said person with out much hesitancy involved. One of the reasons why I stuck my vote on TBM. I don't like it when people do that, especially when their obvious about it. Something of which Gwyn is being obvious about today, and the reason my vote is sticking where its at now and for always. Plus, add the
very
illuminating evidence that Hoopla produced(I keep forgetting that there's evidence in VCs :( silly me?), and your set with 100% unadulterated scum on a rope~
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Post Post #495 (ISO) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 2:18 pm

Post by Oso »

I'm going to go ahead and

Vote:Gwynplaine


Gwynplaine: (This is in addition to what Hoopla pointed out about his voting pattern) He hasn't had one solid reason for a vote or a vote change during the whole game. Early in the game, this can be overlooked as there just isn't that much info out there but as the game progresses, reasons should be given, cases made, patterns pointed to. Gwynplaine hasn't done this. The only valid reason I can find that he gave for a vote is here:

[Posts don't seem to be numbered any more. Here is the link http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p2291602]
Gwynplaine wrote:How does that help the town? You're not helping to find scum. You've said that you're willing to lynch town and follow scum-led bandwagons. You're making plans based on the assumption that the person you're voting for is town. You've also said that you could be a lot more scummy, but frankly I don't see how.

vote: JacobSavage
1 out of 7 votes (excluding the first which I always throw out because of the usual RVS confusion) that has what I would consider a valid reason.

InflatablePie: Still not sure mainly because of Here and Here.

Granted, in hindsight, his suggestion would be have been not the best, we would have lost a possible PGO at the benefit of of the SK suiciding on her and there was no real way to ensure JS would have killed Hoopla but the idea was sound just not optimal. Unless InflateablePie is a good actor, my impression was that he was trying to use JS in such a way that would be either completely good for town or at least a wash as far as balance goes. The caveat here here being that InflatablePie does seem a bit spastic in his voting patterns but not enough to point at him on that alone.

fitz: Same argument as for Midnight Sorrow basically with the exception that I still believe that there was at least one scum on the D1 Hoopla vote. Too good a chance that an early claim like Hoopla's could be pushed into a quick-lynch. If Hoopla true cliamed, one townie down that could only be killed safely by lynching. If Hoopla false-claimed then town cred for being in on the vote. Of the two who are still alive that were on that vote, Midnight Sorrow still comes off better in comparison in my opinion.
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Post Post #496 (ISO) » Mon Jun 21, 2010 6:25 am

Post by InflatablePie »

I ended up working a double shift and passed out once I got home. x_x

Hoopla's case with the votals is a convincing one. And a fitz/Gwyn team would make sense, since fitz seemingly isn't willing to vote for Gwyn at the moment. Although to be fair, I'm not on the Gwynwagon either, so I can see how she'd pick me as a possible partner, too.

Although, on the other hand, Gwyn has picked up a lot of votes very quickly. This is most likely due to the fact that all these people think Gwyn is scum, but it's worth noting if Gwyn flips town.

I'll wait for a defense before (possibly) casting the hammer.
If you don't know how to lie, then how do you know when you're being lied to?

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Post Post #497 (ISO) » Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:26 am

Post by Gwynplaine »

Huh. I went from zero votes to L-1 since the last time I logged in. Now that everybody's drinking the Hoopla Kool-Aid this may be too little, too late, but here goes.

The whole vote count thing is just daft. I don't see the significance of the two facts that a.) at one point in the game I voted the same way a couple of confirmed townies (and a couple people who are probably townies) voted and b.) at another, completely different point in the game I didn't vote the same way a bunch of people whose alignments have yet to be confirmed. I especially don't see how that reflects on my alignment at all. I mean, yes, if you start by assuming that certain players are scum, then you can construct a scenario where their votes match some kind of scummy agenda, but outside of some very unusual corner cases there is no set of votes for which you couldn't do that. You could use pretty much the exact same logic that Hoopla uses against me against, say, Oso or havingfitz.

So there's that. Nikanor is voting me because ... I'm the only one who's smart enough to have spotted his coptells? I'm flattered, I guess, but you're giving me way too much credit. What coptells, by the way? Did you deliberately breadcrumb?

Midnight's Sorrow is voting me because ... he's just doing his usual "tagalong"/"me too" routine.

And Oso's voting me because he thinks I didn't give reasons for some of my earlier votes. I thought I did, though it's true I usually didn't say "I'm voting X because of 1, 2, and 3," but it should be clear in looking back at my posts why I voted the way I did. I also find that it can be useful to not to spell out specific reasons and then see how the person reacts. People can sometimes reveal a lot by how they defend themselves. Not that it matters now, but if you're wondering about any of my earlier votes, ask me and I'll explain it to you.

---

So there's that. Now I'm gonna vote for somebody and,
pace
Oso, give my reasons for my vote as clearly as I can.

VOTE: Midnight's Sorrow

... because Slepz used his few posts mostly to sow Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, and because Midnight Sorrow has been so cautious and noncommital, following along with others' reasoning and almost never advancing a case of his own. (For example, consider the fact that other than MS's first vote on havingfitz, which lasted for all of two posts, nobody in that spot has ever put the first vote on anybody.)
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Post Post #498 (ISO) » Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:18 am

Post by Hoopla »

Fitz or Pie, you can bus your buddy now - there's no way back from here for him. Whoever hammers we'll let live tomorrow....maybe.
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Post Post #499 (ISO) » Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:25 am

Post by q21 »

Deadline got pushed to Thursday... which is good because I need the time and bad because I won't have time to reread properly before such an effort is, I think, too late to make a difference to this day. So...

Vote Gwyn


Hammering on gut is not normally my style... but I'm in that kind of mood today...
"I can't not give mad props to the murderbot 9000 that was q21." - Spyrex, after Scummies Invitational 2010.

You know those times when you wish you could think of something really funny or interesting to say, but just can't?... Yep, this is one of those times.

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