A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[LimMePls]

That being said, yes we must assume the scum have fake claims

Why must we?

Because it would be foolish to blindly accept every claim given. The best position is a skeptical position. What is the alternative?

[Mikujin]

2) If Richard is town, we can't say for certain Ser Loras will use his vig kill, and if he does, use it on CMAR. If Renly is its own faction, they may save it for later use

Your suggesting richard be town\truthfull and the kill goes to an avenging scum?! Okaaay

...

Presumably whoever gets this vig, if true+town, will deliver it on an appropriate target like CMAR, as i stated previously. All you seem to do is raise pointless objections in your last posts. Whats your plan exactly?

I'm not making any assumptions. You said if Richard dies, CMAR also dies, which implies that

you

think he's town, and that

you

think his vig will avenge him by hitting CMAR (supposedly scum). There's a reason I said those were hypotheticals.

[Rifka Viveka]

More succinctly, lynching CMAR will only lynch CMAR, but a richard lynch will both lynch richard and kill CMAR, or just hit scum

Hello, reading comprehension please. Its a small overview of some of the possible outcomes if he is fakeclaiming, trueclaiming,etc. Obviously if the richard lynch hit a lying scum, that would be an excellent result. I mentioned this original as a hypothetical vs hypothetical example, so im not sure if your being obtuse on purpose or what

[xvart]

That being said, yes we must assume the scum have fake claims

Why must we?

Because it would be foolish to blindly accept every claim given. The best position is a skeptical position. What is the alternative?

I'm not sure I really buy this answer. Being foolish and blindly accepting claims is irrelevant to the assumption that the moderator provided fake names to scum.

I said fake claim cause I thought he was scum with CMAR. After what axel said I come to think I might be wrong.

No; you said obvious fake claim, which is independent of other people and their alignments.

FYI - I will have Limited Access from Friday, June 25th through Thursday, July 1. I will be on a cruise for my anniversary and I plan on signing on occasionally to stay caught up, but won't be posting a ton.

xvart.

[LimMePls]

I'm not sure I really buy this answer. Being foolish and blindly accepting claims is irrelevant to the assumption that the moderator provided fake names to scum.

There are two possibilities: Scum have fake claims and scum do not have fake claims. If they do not have them, then believing they might only makes us look skeptically at claims. This isn't hurtful. If they do have them but we operate from an assumption that they don't, this could be disasterous. The only logical position to hold is to assume fake claims.

If that still isn't good enough, well the scum in the AGoT mini had them. No reason to assume differently here.

I don't want to spend our last ~12 hours arguing about this, but are there ever any theme games like this that don't have scum fake claims? Aren't they kind of mandatory to prevent mass name claims from breaking the game?

I support the Richard lynch because if we leave him around we're just going to have to argue about this every day. If he showed absolutely any sign of being pro-town I'd feel differently, but he shows every intention of playing scummy for the rest of the game and hiding behind his claim. I support the CMAR wagon as well. I will be watching this thread closely, and if it is between a no lynch and CMAR, I will move to CMAR.

[Percy]

I also think scum would be very reluctant to shoot Richard. That's win/win to me. We get a vengeance kill or a confirmed townie for the game.

I don't see how Richard not getting NKed confirms him as town.
(Also, I agree with you about SSBF-scum, but I have my own reasons for suspecting him as well.)

Because it would be foolish to blindly accept every claim given. The best position is a skeptical position. What is the alternative?

The alternative, of course, is that Raivann made it up - that the scum don't get fakeclaims, only fake

names

, like in the mini (unlike what you said - this is the "third" possibility). A fakeclaim assumption means that lying in a claim simply involves cutting and pasting what a mod wrote, and I doubt Eddard would be bastard enough to give fakeclaims that contradict actual townie roles; but if scum are given names and have to come up with their own roles, we can look for contradictions.
The fact that you leap to this conclusion is (mildly) concerning to me; I do understand your point, though.

Still pondering where my vote should go. Is everyone voting Richard thinking along the same lines as my plan?
I dislike strategic/tactical lynching, it often leads to disaster, and I'm not feeling Richard-scum as strongly as I'd like - more like Richard-VI... Sticking with my vote for now. CMAR has been "reading" these past eight hours. I sure hope he has eight hours worth of content to show for it
Also, I haven't discounted putting my vote back on Raivann. Claiming and then buggering off is scummy,

especially

when people start looking for a new lynch.

[Rifka Viveka]

Id like to see drippereth and benmage post before the deadline instead of hiding under their stones

[LimMePls]

The alternative, of course, is that Raivann made it up - that the scum don't get fakeclaims, only fake

names

, like in the mini (unlike what you said - this is the "third" possibility). A fakeclaim assumption means that lying in a claim simply involves cutting and pasting what a mod wrote, and I doubt Eddard would be bastard enough to give fakeclaims that contradict actual townie roles; but if scum are given names and have to come up with their own roles, we can look for contradictions.
The fact that you leap to this conclusion is (mildly) concerning to me; I do understand your point, though.

Oh, when I said fakeclaims I only meant fake names. I was unaware that mods give out full fake claims. Do mods actually do that? The only fake claims I've seen in any games I've read or played in have been just a name. I guess it is conceivable that they only have fake names, that is what I meant.

[LimMePls]

Also, I haven't discounted putting my vote back on Raivann. Claiming and then buggering off is scummy,

especially

when people start looking for a new lynch.

Then you should feel comfortable voting Richard, cause that is exactly what he did, only he's been doing it for like a week or two now, not just in one day. He is the definition of claiming and then buggering off.

[LimMePls]

@MOD: Can we get a vote count and precise ETA to deadline? Is the countdown timer on page 1 still valid given the extension to the deadline?

The original Day 1 post's timer was not, but now is, correct.

[Eddard Stark]

24 Hours til Deadline.

There will be no lynch unless 14 votes are reached.

Vote count 1.25: The

"Don’t kill him here!" "Don’t kill him anywhere"

votecount

.

Lynch Count

Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) -

Unsight

CryMeARiver (10) -

Hasdgfas, MacavityLock, RichardGHP, xvart, Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL , Raivann, Mikujin, Percy

Drippereth (1) -

Budja

Budja (2) -

Drippereth, Mina

Raivann (5) -

Locke Lamora, julienvonwolfe, Thor665, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Benmage

RichardGHP (5) -

LynchmePls, Rifka Vivieka, Danakillsu, I Doubt It, Vezokpiraka

Not voting to Lynch (2) - CryMeARiver, Kinetic

With 26 alive it takes 14 to lynch.

The deadline for today's lynch is

10:00pm EST on Thursday the 24th of June

. You can view a countdown to the deadline

here

.

[julienvonwolfe]

I would loooooove for SSBF to be the lynch for the day but apparently my ideas don't get steam unless they're restated with 5 times as many words like Julienvonwolfe did here.

I also think scum would be very reluctant to shoot Richard. That's win/win to me. We get a vengeance kill or a confirmed townie for the game.

Right, now that it looks like we're not lynching Raivann let's go for SSBF. We've got 24 hours, that's time, and there's a much better case on SSBF than on CMAR. (Reacting stupidly to claims seems to be in CMAR's meta since he did it to both Richard and Raivann, who based on their behaviour cannot both be on the same team, and so I don't think CMAR's reactions to claims can be counted as scummy.)

UNVOTE: Raivann
VOTE: Super Smash Bros. Fan

[danakillsu]

Dana wrote:
I agree with the reasons given by others that his claim is probably not true. If he flips town, we'll know that Raivann is probably scum. If he flips scum we'll know that Raivann is probably town.

Your flip conjecture here ignores the possibility of a multi-scum environment or Raivann as a potential SK. Any reason for that?

No. I just didn't think about it in that complex a way. But when I say "Raivann is probably scum" that should be read to encompass SK's. And as far as I know it all still holds true if there are multiple scum factions.

Is there anything Pro-Town about this statement? It’s at best childish. If you are serious that you think that Percy is mis-representing you or outright lying in his statements regarding you why don’t you demonstrate it yourself, with “proof”?

Perhaps not from your view, but I refuse to let Percy rule the town and just honor any baseless accusations he may make with a full-blown defense. Nobody should believe him anyway if he gives no proof, so there's really no reason to take the time to disprove anything he says. Besides, it would be really hard to simply disprove his assertion that I am scum, probably impossible, since there's nothing to disprove.

Solid catch there. @dana - any comment on this assessment?

Yes. It no longer applies. You may quote me on that.

Potential vig targets: CMAR, Richard, danakillsu, vezo

What one post gives you a scum read on me?

[hasdgfas]

I would loooooove for SSBF to be the lynch for the day but apparently my ideas don't get steam unless they're restated with 5 times as many words like Julienvonwolfe did here.

I also think scum would be very reluctant to shoot Richard. That's win/win to me. We get a vengeance kill or a confirmed townie for the game.

Right, now that it looks like we're not lynching Raivann let's go for SSBF. We've got 24 hours, that's time, and there's a much better case on SSBF than on CMAR. (Reacting stupidly to claims seems to be in CMAR's meta since he did it to both Richard and Raivann, who based on their behaviour cannot both be on the same team, and so I don't think CMAR's reactions to claims can be counted as scummy.)

UNVOTE: Raivann
VOTE: Super Smash Bros. Fan

Do you really think a lynch count can be reached on him in that time?

[Drippereth]

I changed my mind in the shower.

I'll be out all day, and there isn't enough time before the deadline to make

two

moves like this.

The Richard vote was a trap for only one person. I think this vote will be much more informative.

Unvote

Vote: Budja

Hey, guys! We have about thirty-six hours before the deadline, and Budja is now a lynch option again. Who's willing to change back to the player they actually suspected?

GOODPOSTING.
I DID MENTION HOW TOWN MINA IS RIGHT?
How hard the Klee/Budja wagon has been to build is disturbing.

The Raivann vig claim and Richard vig enabler vigclaim settup redundancy argument I dunno. Doesn't convince me about anything.

Why are all the votes shifting to someone who is most probably town?

This is idiotic.

RichardGHP shouldn't be lynched just because apparently Ser Loras can vig someone on his behalf. He should live so the scum have to waste a nightkill on him.

GOODPOSTING
I MENTIONED THAT UNSIGHT IS WONDERFULLY TOWN TOO RIGHT?

[Drippereth]

ANYWAY
I will be here to switch to CRY or whoever at deadline.

BUT

CAN YOU ALL BE MAGICAL AND SWITCH OVER TO BUDJA???
IT CAN BE DONE IN 24 HOURS!

[Drippereth]

Oh yeah, way offtopic, but Kinetic is prob scum.

[Drippereth]

Something about Percy is wierding me out but I don't know what.
Bleh, look into it later.

[LimMePls]

Something about Percy is wierding me out but I don't know what.
Bleh, look into it later.

His inconsistency about claimers vanishing and the two role claims in general is weirding me out. He says that Raivann claiming today and then "buggering off" is scummy and might be a reason to keep his vote on Raivann, but Richard claims like two weeks ago and "buggers off" ever since then, but he says we shouldn't lynch Richard because his claim is provable. Isn't a vig claim from Raivann provable too?

[LimMePls]

^^Just ISO'd Percy and I'm wrong, he wasn't the one that said we shouldn't lynch Richard because his claim was unprovable. He said that we shouldn't lynch him because if Loras is his scum buddy, then his claim deprived his scum buddy of his safe claim. This is still a good point.

My concern about his inconsistency on claimers who "bugger off" is still valid though.

[julienvonwolfe]

I would loooooove for SSBF to be the lynch for the day but apparently my ideas don't get steam unless they're restated with 5 times as many words like Julienvonwolfe did here.

I also think scum would be very reluctant to shoot Richard. That's win/win to me. We get a vengeance kill or a confirmed townie for the game.

Right, now that it looks like we're not lynching Raivann let's go for SSBF. We've got 24 hours, that's time, and there's a much better case on SSBF than on CMAR. (Reacting stupidly to claims seems to be in CMAR's meta since he did it to both Richard and Raivann, who based on their behaviour cannot both be on the same team, and so I don't think CMAR's reactions to claims can be counted as scummy.)

UNVOTE: Raivann
VOTE: Super Smash Bros. Fan

Do you really think a lynch count can be reached on him in that time?

Sure... though I will switch my vote to ensure a lynch if necessary and people, for whatever reason, don't want to lynch SSBF.

[Percy]

OK, I've had a long think, and I'm sticking with my CMAR vote. Whilst I would love to see a SSBF wagon, I don't think we have nearly enough time to get one to a lynch by tomorrow. Also, CMAR is high on my list of suspects and is very close to a lynching, which I'm happy about.

@LynchMePls

: I stand by what I originally said with Richard, and it applies as well to Raivann. Keeping them alive to test their claims is the best play. I

do

think that Richard and Raivann are equally "worthy" of lynching for their behaviour after their wagons; the difference is that I had a gut town read of Richard before the claim and found his claim to be believable, whilst I had a gut scum read of Raivann before the claim and find his claim merely plausible. I certainly don't want Raivann to become the new Richard in terms of content generation.

dana hasn't answered my case, and refuses to look at the evidence I have provided. I've provided quotes and commentary on his shifting and convictionless opinions, yet he dismisses it all.

To evaluate my case for yourself (which I think everyone should do), first look at the way dana goes after Kleedrac earlier today. When you have an idea of what dana did with that scumread, go and look at the way dana behaves during the Raivann wagon - I've already outlined how his opinions on the slot changed from hypotheticals to actuals, and qualifications of the read / case material was dragged out of him. Now for the punchline - look at what happened when it looked like it was coming down to a choice between Raivann and CMAR, when he elected to not participate in the Raivann wagon and instead say he was happy to jump on CMAR's wagon to prevent NL. Pressure forced dana to claim that he had

always

had a strong scumread on Raivann (a contradiction in itself), but this is not what his actions indicate anywhere today.

His all-out-denial, no-engagement approach to my case is desperate and unpersuasive.

If I'm alive tomorrow, my votes will be going on dana and SSBF.

[Budja]

unvote

Day 1 should never go on for this long. My analytical skills are shot today and everything I read seems to flow together making zero sense. fun. [/excuses]

Richard's claim is believable. Doesn't fit in my mind as a fakeclaim/scum-role. Not interested in lynching him.
Def. not sure re. Raivaan, is this game likely to be NK heavy flavourwise?
Gut says Raivaan scum, but vig is a bit of a risky fakeclaim.

Hypocritical, but from what I see, lynching a more useless townie seems the best choice with deadline .

vote CMAR

From what little I have comprehended:
xvart is town
The "strong" scum connection between Raivaan/CMAR isn't.
vezo is scummy.
I suspect (meta) that SSBF's playstyle makes his read scummier, need to look properly.
Percy's dana/Raivaan scumlink = interesting

[vezokpiraka]

Richard wagon is not moving but this should end in a lynch

unvote
vote CMAR

[Locke Lamora]

Unvote; Vote: CMAR

Raivann is scummy as hell but clearly not going to happen. I still think Richard's claim has no bearing on his alignment, other than being aligned with Renly. I particularly don't get this:

I also think scum would be very reluctant to shoot Richard. That's win/win to me. We get a vengeance kill or a confirmed townie for the game.

So if Richard is part of another scum faction, but scum are reluctant to kill him, how does that provide us with a confirmed townie?

Vezo, why are you posting with a different account?