Mini 961: Insane Asylum II: GAME OVER :O!

[Corvuus]

yes.

Haylen claims to be a doc and to have protected me (farside) so I am thinking maybe I should just claim and we can decide whether to mass claim later. The only concern is that I would REALLY want SC dead as perhaps his kill may go through Doc protection.

Corvuus

[UncertainKitten]

The Thiry-Fifth "<Insert Flavor here>" Vote Count

"<Insert Quote Here>"

Mod Note: Yeah, back to fail votecounts. Maybe I'll start getting into paraphilias?

1. magnus_orion (0)
2. StrangerCoug (2): Corvuus, Dramonic
3. SocioPath (1): Tarhalindur
4. Corvuus (0)
7. Tarhalindur (0)
9. Haylen (2): SocioPath, magnus_orion
11. Dramonic (1): StrangerCoug

Not Voting (1): Haylen

Prod Clock (New): Off
Players still needing to respond to prod: No One

Extension Votes: magnus_orion

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is in 7 days at 8:00 PM EST, Saturday, July 3rd, 2010

[Corvuus]

Well, at this point, perhaps it is best if I do claim.

I am a cop (specifically mentions I have no idea regarding sanity).

When I replaced in, I got my role and my night actions. The "facts" of my role/investigation lead me to make several conclusions and PoE.

My first night action was to investigate SC on night 1. I got a guilty result. NO ONE else say anything about this until SC responds to why I got a guilty result. I have various thoughts on why Farside picked SC. I'll post it after SC responds.

For the second night action... Farside was either away and didn't submit a night action in time or didn't care because they believed Haylen regarding the "lockdown"/block all. Either way, Farside didn't submit an action. It was randomized so I investigated Sociopath. The interesting part is that I got "no result".

Short version: This leads me to believe that there WAS a lockdown (block all) and I won't vote for Haylen as this seems consistent with the claim and most likely town leaning. I also believe Farside had a similar shift when this occurred.

There WAS a kill however. Haylen's response to the pressure was that there might be a superkill or something that goes through lockdown. This would imply a SK type role.
Oh hey, look, there is SC-SK. Perhaps he has been submitting kills ALL game and there were docs/blocks going on.

Based on my limited reading through, Tar strikes me as scumhunting/pro-town, Haylen's claim, role, etc. makes me inclined to believe Haylen is pro-town.
I am cop (no nightkill immunity or anything like last time) so that leaves 4 players left. Magnus, Sociopath, Dramonic and Strangercoug. SC is most likely SK in my eyes due to the kill going through the block. 2 scum are left. I have to read more (Sociopath is hard to read, or at least interpret) while Dramonic and magnus have been various amounts according to what I see so far.

So I said PoE Dramonic in a somewhat arbitrary way. It could be Magnus or Sociopath or any combinations therein according to my role and read.

I do think 100% that SC must die today though.

Corvuus
p.s. what I meant regarding optimizing and safest play is... if I died tonight without saying anything, lose the investigation/clearance of haylen. If I don't claim, we lynch SC, then it might have resulted in auto-town win depending on tomorrow investigation and sanity result. I don't really trust cop results that much (especially in a insane asylum) but I think the importance of clearing Haylen, existence of superkill/SC might be enough to edge town forward.

[Corvuus]

edit by way of post:

I no longer support mass claiming. If people think it can give town more info then maybe. If you are a role with a power and you got "no result" as well then you should consider Haylen/my claim.
C

[StrangerCoug]

The fact you are bulletproof makes it so you can't be nightkill. Add to that the fact you gain NKs when people attempt to shoot you down and I'm sorry but you're pretty much stronger than the average SK.

That's only true if I manage to draw multiple kills a night.

When I read one of your posts SC (like, "I forgot we had dead scum"??!!) I wonder why you are still alive since you are one of the most consistently scummiest players I have ever seen.... regardless of your role. This makes applying logic to you strange and difficult because you don't necessarily optimize your play at all or seem to be aware/remember details. It is your style regardless of how much i hate it ;P.

Don't be so quick to say that I'm a slop—I actually play reasonably well as Mafia.

My first night action was to investigate SC on night 1. I got a guilty result. NO ONE else say anything about this until SC responds to why I got a guilty result. I have various thoughts on why Farside picked SC. I'll post it after SC responds.

If your claim is correct, then I would say that if farside22 did not make a serious misplay on investigating somebody with a claimed miller-like ability, she was doing a sanity check:

Also, now that Tarhalindur reminded me, there's a miller aspect to my role, too.

Modified as in I investigate the opposite I normally do to any given sanity cop.

[Corvuus]

The fact you are bulletproof makes it so you can't be nightkill. Add to that the fact you gain NKs when people attempt to shoot you down and I'm sorry but you're pretty much stronger than the average SK.

That's only true if I manage to draw multiple kills a night.

I'm not sure I am clear with what you mean here. You are saying that you only gain "charges" if you draw multiple night kill actions towards yourself? From who? Scum, doc, SK? how could you be the target of multiple night kills.

When I read one of your posts SC (like, "I forgot we had dead scum"??!!) I wonder why you are still alive since you are one of the most consistently scummiest players I have ever seen.... regardless of your role. This makes applying logic to you strange and difficult because you don't necessarily optimize your play at all or seem to be aware/remember details. It is your style regardless of how much i hate it ;P.

Don't be so quick to say that I'm a slop—I actually play reasonably well as Mafia.
[/quote]
I've been re-reading and you make this point before as well. That if you 'were' SK/mafia, then you would be playing much much "better". That how you are playing now is 'proof' that you are not an anti-town role? This doesn't make sense to me.

My first night action was to investigate SC on night 1. I got a guilty result. NO ONE else say anything about this until SC responds to why I got a guilty result. I have various thoughts on why Farside picked SC. I'll post it after SC responds.

Yes, I believe it was a psuedo sanity check depending on what you really are. That is another reason why I would like to lynch you ;P. If you flip something identifiable then my investigation ability might be more trust worthy.

Corvuus
P.S. do you believe my claim? Haylen's claim?

[Corvuus]

Hmm...

Glork was a miller cop. Tar is claiming miller with an ability to flip cop investigations.

Millers are described as flipping the sanity of the investigation done on them... a lot to screw around with investigations.

In Insane Asylum 1, we had 2 cops (with NK resistance) , 2-3 millers, death miller, Godfather.

Here we have proven miller cop, psychologist doc (doc who can kill by accident?), and claimed miller/investigation flippers plus this cabal/talking thing? plus a 'lockdown' global roleblock (on a sane doc) plus a potential SK?

Ok... this is kind of messed up ;P.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SC: Is your 'millerness' a one time thing to investigation or does it permanently affect investigation ability of that person?

Corvuus

[StrangerCoug]

The fact you are bulletproof makes it so you can't be nightkill. Add to that the fact you gain NKs when people attempt to shoot you down and I'm sorry but you're pretty much stronger than the average SK.

That's only true if I manage to draw multiple kills a night.

I'm not sure I am clear with what you mean here. You are saying that you only gain "charges" if you draw multiple night kill actions towards yourself? From who? Scum, doc, SK? how could you be the target of multiple night kills.

Anybody with a kill ability.

When I read one of your posts SC (like, "I forgot we had dead scum"??!!) I wonder why you are still alive since you are one of the most consistently scummiest players I have ever seen.... regardless of your role. This makes applying logic to you strange and difficult because you don't necessarily optimize your play at all or seem to be aware/remember details. It is your style regardless of how much i hate it ;P.

Don't be so quick to say that I'm a slop—I actually play reasonably well as Mafia.

I've been re-reading and you make this point before as well. That if you 'were' SK/mafia, then you would be playing much much "better". That how you are playing now is 'proof' that you are not an anti-town role? This doesn't make sense to me.

It doesn't make sense to you because that's not why I made the slop comment. Put more clearly, my Mafia record is better than my town record. What you're talking about is my defending my claim. Do you think that I am scum trying to get myself killed? If so, does my counterattacking DrippingGoofball make any sense to you?

Yes, I believe it was a psuedo sanity check depending on what you really are. That is another reason why I would like to lynch you ;P. If you flip something identifiable then my investigation ability might be more trust worthy.

Corvuus
P.S. do you believe my claim? Haylen's claim?

Yours I'm still trying to work out, but leaning yes; Haylen's no.

I still think the focus should be scumhunting, but if I must meet my demise before endgame, sucks to be me.

[Corvuus]

ok.

i've been trying to take notes and crunch through this whole neighbor/cabal/talking thing and trying to understand what one part of my role even means.

It doesn't help that people are misreading/misinterpreting their roles either.

So if someone could post a summary of what we know in terms of FINAL claims, that would be great.
--------------------------

SC: Do you have the ability to kill someone right now (dayvig?). Do you have the ability to kill someone tonight?

Corvuus

[StrangerCoug]

I cannot dayvig and I'm checking with the mod whether I can kill tonight.

[magnus_orion]

SC: Is your 'millerness' a one time thing to investigation or does it permanently affect investigation ability of that person?

can you answer this please, SC?

[StrangerCoug]

SC: Is your 'millerness' a one time thing to investigation or does it permanently affect investigation ability of that person?

can you answer this please, SC?

It's unclear in the role PM, but I think it's one time.

Additionally, I'm still at zero, so I cannot kill tonight.

[Corvuus]

So you are claiming that you didn't kill last night as well then correct?

Humoring me for a moment; I claim to have gotten a "no result" and Haylen did a "lockdown" and there was no talking at all due to lockdown (proving him to some extent regarding his ability, not necessarily his alignment).

In this case, how do you think the kill occurred? A Superkill that went through "role block" or something else?

Corvuus
p.s. I won't be around at all tomorrow until late afternoon/evening.

[StrangerCoug]

In this case, how do you think the kill occurred? A Superkill that went through "role block" or something else?

Your guess is as good as mine as far as I am concerned.

[magnus_orion]

SC: Is your 'millerness' a one time thing to investigation or does it permanently affect investigation ability of that person?

can you answer this please, SC?

It's unclear in the role PM, but I think it's one time.

Additionally, I'm still at zero, so I cannot kill tonight.

coug's telling the truth about being a miller. Or something that has the same sort of abilities anyway.

Eh, alright, looking at what we know now, massclaim couldn't hurt, I guess, but I'd like to go last.

[SocioPath]

SC: Is your 'millerness' a one time thing to investigation or does it permanently affect investigation ability of that person?

can you answer this please, SC?

It's unclear in the role PM, but I think it's one time.

Additionally, I'm still at zero, so I cannot kill tonight.

Meaning SC the SK is not a threat by any means.

[dramonic]

Somebody hasn't been paying attention I see.

[dramonic]

She's NK immune
If we mislynch, she also "becomes" lynch-immune, because then we are in LyLo.

How do you rid yourself of someone that cannot die Socio?

[StrangerCoug]

She's NK immune
If we mislynch, she also "becomes" lynch-immune, because then we are in LyLo.

I am male.

[SocioPath]

She's NK immune
If we mislynch, she also "becomes" lynch-immune, because then we are in LyLo.

How do you rid yourself of someone that cannot die Socio?

WELL GEE. LET US FIND OUT.

7 alive.
Worst case scenario:

2 more mafia:

Today, lynch town.
1 NK. (Going with town doesn't NK either.)

5 alive. LYLO
lynch, mafia.
1 NK. (Also no doc protects.)

3 alive: 1 mafia, 1 BPSK, 1 town.
lynch SK, mafia wins.
lynch town, SK wins.
lynch mafia...DRAW.

IF SK = NO KILLS. Then a 1 v. 1 endgame would end in a draw.
THIS IS WORST CASE.

I've seen many games end where a BP and a scum (or other similar scenarios, check MD) would be the last 2 in the game and it would draw.

But if either:
A. There is 1 mafia left.
OR
B. We lynch mafia TODAY.
THAN
SK CANNOT WIN REGARDLESS.

IF 2 MAFIA
THAN
LYLO TOMORROW IS GUARANTEED IF WE LYNCH SC REGARDLESS, BECAUSE CHANCE OF HIM BEING MAFIA IS CLOSE TO 0%.

[dramonic]

You know, if you look at your theory, I don't see the place where "town wins" is written.

about
A. Doubt it
B. and tomorrow too.

[Corvuus]

just got back.

I don't believe the whole charged based thing. If anyone thinks Haylen/"roleblock all" was a lie/can prove it then I might consider the possibility of SC-SK being charged based and 'potentially harmless'. Otherwise, I see no reason to believe SC-SK is harmless at all. He could be doing superkill that went through roleblock, he could be anything. Letting a self-proclaimed NK immune vig/SK player with questionable alignment into endgame.... is just full of town-fail.

----

I don't know if people haven't been around but there are literally no comments on my claim at all? In the first Asylum game, the 'claiming' in day 3 was the major turning point of the game... i'm kind of surprised that there is no discussion or comment at all. Are people just hedging their bets to see what happens?

Corvuus

[SocioPath]

You know, if you look at your theory, I don't see the place where "town wins" is written.

You know, if you look at your lynch-SC plan, I don't see the place where "town wins" is written.

[Tarhalindur]

Summary of claims so far:

Fullclaims:

StrangerCoug

(NK immune, investigation miller, gains 1 charge per kill that targets him, may use a charge to kill another player, ability to post in thread at night)

Dramonic

(ability to post in thread at night and no other abilities)

Haylen

(Doctor (sanity unknown), member of the Cabal with associated ability to daytalk in Cabal QT (note to self: find who introduced Cabal terminology in thread - if they're not on the Cabal themselves they may need to be hanged), 1-shot global roleblock (but kill occurred on roleblock night); personally suspect sanity is Naive, though Sane is possible if a superkill exists)

Tarhalindur*

(Doctor (confirmed sane by N1 result), investigation miller, member of the Cabal with associated ability to daytalk in Cabal QT, 1-shot ability to reverse cop sanities globally for one night)

Partially claimed:

Corvuus

(Cop (sanity unknown but not Naive), ability to post in thread at night, unspecified confusing third ability (needs to elaborate))

magnus_orion

(unspecified role but likely investigative of some type given behavior)

Unclaimed:

SocioPath

(unknown role, though I have my suspicions)

Dead:

Yosarian2

(Psychologist (specifics unknown), member of the Cabal with associated ability to daytalk in Cabal QT; personal suspicion is that his main ability switched a player's sanity to Sane but learn target player's sanity is also possible)

Ellibereth

(Nurse (gains doctor ability and sanity of first doctor killed), member of the Cabal with associated ability to daytalk in Cabal QT)

Glork

(Cop (sanity unknown), protection Miller, ability to post in thread at night; personally suspect Sane and a 1-shot ability to flip doctor sanities globally for a night)

DrippingGoofball

(Mafioso, Doctor (sanity unknown), member of the Cabal with associated ability to daytalk in Cabal QT; personally suspect sanity Paranoid (if SCSK and/or Haylen insane) or Naive)

Iecerint

(presumably ability to talk in thread at night and no other abilities)

* -technically wasn't fullclaimed before this, but since I'd claimed everything else anyways...

Notes:
- In an act of boneheaded stupidity, I failed to notice a couple of days ago that a) Mostly Vanilla Townie was listed in the opening posts and b) more importantly, Iecerint ALREADY FLIPPED MOSTLY VANILLA TOWNIE. This is a HUGE point against dramonic - possibly equivalent to being preemptively counterclaimed from the second he claimed knowing that UK borrowed my concept of the token lynchbait vanilla (ala Suzumiya Haruhi/Mind Screw 1 and 2) in past games. I'll need the last two claims to be sure, but dramonic is likely scum; if Haylen is not Mafia, he's likely our superkiller.
- I'd really like to see SocioPath's claim, mainly because if he claims what I think he will I've probably all-but-broken the setup in half.
- One of {Corvuus, magnus_orion, Haylen} is likely Mafia; Haylen can be removed from this list if dramonic is Mafia.
- As things currently stand, one of {dramonic, Haylen} is almost certainly Mafia.
- We can either all-but-guarantee that Mafia loses or guard against the possibility of StrangerCoug being bulletproof SK with at least two kills (the scenario that results in a Prisoner's Dilemma for town tomorrow barring a successful protection), but not both.

Everyone but especially SocioPath: I've run the numbers on SCSK possibilities.

The worst-case scenario requires that StrangerCoug be SK with bulletproof and at least two kills (unlimited is more likely - in fact, if StrangerCoug is SK I'd say it's probable he's lying about having a limited number of kills) and runs as follows:

Day 3 lynch any player other than SC.
Night 3 Mafia and SC both choose to kill.

Here are the permutations OTOH:
1) If the Day 3 lynchee is town and both N3 kills target different town players, then one of the following happens:
1a) Mafia fulfills win condition Day 4 (most likely in case of 50% win condition)
1b) Kingmaker (no lynch results in either Mafioso and last townie dying Night 4 for likely SK victory or the last townie getting doublekilled Night 4 for the Mafia victory, SC lynch results in Mafia win, Mafia lynch should result in SK win)

2) If the Day 3 lynchee is town, {a N3 kill is stopped, SCSK and the Mafia kill the same player (doublekill)}, and the player who dies N3 is town, one of the following happens:
2a) Day 4 begins as 2-2-1 Kingmaker assuming reasonably optimal kills.

3) If the Day 3 lynchee is town and SCSK crosskills a Mafioso overnight, one of the following happens:
3a) If the Mafia kill N3 fails, Day 4 begins as 3-1-1 LyLo and Town can chainlynch the last Mafioso and the SK for the win.
3b) If the Mafia kill N3 succeeds, Day 4 begins at 2-1-1 Kingmaker endgame assuming reasonably optimal kills.

4) If the D3 lynchee is Mafia, one of the following happens:
4a) If either kill fails OR SCSK and the Mafia both kill the same player, Day 4 begins as 3-1-1 LyLo and proceeds as 2a.
4b) If SCSK crosskills the second Mafioso, Day 4 begins as either 3-0-1 or 4-0-1 (depending on success of the Mafia kill) and we lynch StrangerCoug ftw.
4c) If the Mafia and SCSK both succesfully kill different players, Day 4 begins as 2-1-1 Kingmaker endgame assuming reasonably optimal kills.

Note: If SCSK has exactly two kills then an endgame draw is possible depending on his win condition (since he cannot finish all town). If SCSK has one kill then 2-1-1 is NOT Kingmaker but rather LyLo (assuming we're not dealing with a variant win condition such as "be one of the last three players alive"): Town must lynch the last Mafioso Day 4 and then lynch StrangerCoug the next day.

The scenario we lose by lynching SC today (barring surprises from claims):
1) We lynch dramonic today.
2) If dramonic flips a role other than superkiller, we lynch Haylen Day 4. Otherwise, we lynch one of {Corvuus, magnus_orion}.
3) We lynch one of {Corvuus, magnus_orion} Day 5 (this choice is trivial if we already lynched the other Day 4 and the game is still ongoing; if not, I'd currently lean towards Corvuus pending m_o claim).

This loses if StrangerCoug is SK but should result in at worst a 50% chance of losing if he is town, and at best an autowin. (Yes, SocioPath has been left off the lynch list; I'll explain why I did so after I see what he claims.)

Unvote, Vote: dramonic

, but I don't want to lynch until fullclaim is done.

I'd prefer SocioPath/magnus_orion to claim in that order.

[SocioPath]

Well, my claim will likely throw a wrench into your plans, Tar, as I doubt your setup speculation breaking has determined my role.

I am a Psychologist.

What I do is change sanities, in a cycling order:
Paranoid becomes Insane, Insane becomes Sane, Sane becomes Naive, Naive becomes Paranoid.

Also, as a passive effect, I am immune to sanity changes.

N1 I chose to not target anyone.

N2 was the RB night, so I didn't bother to send in any action.
Which in turn randomized my action.
Which I randomly targeted myself.
I assumed I was RB'd anyways, but I was told I wouldn't know whether or not if I was RB'd, as the nature of the role doesn't get results.

My role is fairly useless though, until after claims and santies are figured out...unless I just wanted to fuck with people.
But potentially making a useless role into a usable one keeps it from being too worthless.