Newbie 961 - Game Over - Town Victory

[CSL]

As you approach the town square, you see a burnt house, and AurorusVox's body. With one dirtbag left to go, you get ready to start the day.

AurorusVox, Civilian, Returned to ashes Night 2...

It is now Day 3. With 5 alive, 3 will lynch.

Deadline is July 18th, 2010, @ 7:00pm EST

[youngminii]

Post deleted upon request ~ CSL

[youngminii]

Okay ignore the above post, I'll fix the formatting here.
WBWOP:


Sup everyone, I'm the new replacement and I'm new to online Mafia, but I've played in real life a lot. After reading a bit, it looks like most of us are replacements.

Anyway, here are my thoughts on the game so far.

As of right now, we know that there's only one scum and 4 Townies left.

Now we know that me=weird was a scum, and I'm quite sure you'll agree that I am definitely not scum, based on Doubtful's actions.

Let me begin my analysis of the pages so far. Here is a quote from Quoi:

I've just finished my first run-through of the game, and these are my first impressions:

As of mid-page 4 Doubtful's so-called sensitivity seems to me like possible scum getting frustrated or inflamed for being at L-2, a reaction which I've found to be especially frequent in players new to the site.

Alternatively, on the same page, shadow2222 does look a bit shady with his blatant refusal to answer Doubtful's questions. I do believe also that Doubtful wouldn't have pushed this scumtell on shadow as much as he would if they were both scum, so I'll continue to try and decide which of these two is scummier.

Vox is correct in pointing out that StillAwesome is lurking severely.

As I finish Page 6, I start to notice some people who seem to be jumping around from lurker wagon to flaker wagon to lurker wagon a bit too much for my tastes. These people are Me=Wierd and my predecessor, Skunkape. Me=Wierd of course also ends up on the Zajnet BW.

Zajnet ought to be lynched for trying elusive vagueness in his 11 June post where he says, without any further elaboration, "nice misrep on those quotes". He is clearly trying to buy time.

It seems that the two players that would be worse of if startransmission were still here are Me=Wierd and Doubtful.

Wierd/Doubtful scumteam looks better and better with neither of them voting for the other throughout the entire game.

Let's go ahead and VOTE: Me=Wierd for contributing less than Doubtful.

Nobody is stupid enough to vote off their only scum teammate when there are still 5 Townies left. It's suicide, unless you're some pro trying to do some retarded 'get everyone's trust' technique. Hence we can assume Quoi is a Townie.

Now let's bring our attention to Unloved.

First, a quote by me=weird:

My thoughts on UnLoved:
Asks what to do. Usually newbie scum who aren't quite sure what to do.
I don't get the unvoting thing. How are we supposed to get discussion if people unvote their random-votes?
Lurking is where people are up to date on everything, and could make a post, but don't. Looking at posts is not lurking. It is called reading the thread. Scum clumsily trying to explain supporting lurking?
RVS is for generating discussion about you? Most people don't like that because it means people think they're scum.
What does the difference between defensive and overly defensive have to do with someone being aggressive? There's a word for that. It's called irrelevancy.
Lurking isn't grounds for a policy lynch, it is a scumtell.
After pretty much not mentioning zaj at all, he looking for a way zaj couldn't be scum. Right after a wagon forms on zaj.
We need to find the other scum too, but not partnered with zaj, rather with you.
You don't know? Make theories!

In answer questions:

1: Yes.

1.1: UnLoved, because of the above.

2:
I believe that the scum may have killed him to set me up. A: I'm mafia(I'm not), and killed him because he was suspicious of me. Or what happened, B: See last sentence. Hence, WIFOM.

3: This one(at the top) by Karma.

I will be happy with this.
VOTE: UnLoved

Again, it is ridiculous to try and point fingers at your only scum teammate, and so it is unlikely (more likely than Quoi) that Unloved is scum.
Also, you will have noticed Unloved and me=weird go through this huge quoting war which makes Unloved even more innocent.

At this point in Day 2, there are no 'wagons' formed yet. Only these two votes have been cast (except more Karma which I will come to later in the post).

Now we have Porochaz. Granted, he didn't post too much but at this point there were 6 Townies and 2 scum. There were 2 votes on Unloved and one vote on me=weird. Porochaz could have

easily

turned the tides of the voting bandwagon and voted for Unloved to protect me=weird, but instead he balanced out the vote to 2-2. While he did not post much content, it's pretty clear that he isn't scum.

By process of elimination, this leads us to Karma. Let us begin analysing Karma's play.

Page 6, Karma enters and creates a bandwagon against Zajnet. He uses recycled information, pretending to have found Doubtful innocent through analysis. See here:

A quote by STM at 10:02am, 9th of June

Doubtful His early posts I covered pretty well already. The defensiveness over his RV and his noticing of the RV pattern itself I've addressed. After answering my questions he FoS's Shadow for "not interpreting Zajnets vote" (and I should make clear what "the game" is... I know I'm likely missing the obvious). This bit confuses me, I'm not sure why Shadow not interpreting a vote is worthy of suspicion. Then comes a semi-post by post of me, where he considers my RV to be eccentric for not being 100% random, and declares me to be town. I respond to this post later. After answering Shadow2222s ridiculous question with a no, he moves his vote to Unloved. He points out that it puts Unloved at L-2, but seems to feel that because of the low activity it's the best vote. But he bolsters his vote with a semi-post by post of Unloved where he criticizes Unloved's voting and his comments on lurking. The following posts are where my ignorance of what this "game" is hurts me. More arguments follow about the RVS, which lead to an FoS of Zajnet. You all read this stuff for yourselves, but I will say that I like the tone of Doubtful here. He's engaging people, being vocal about his positions, and is active. For his efforts he soon finds himself at L-1, where he claims VT. He gives some last opinions on people in the game, and votes Shadow2222 which I appreciate as his lynch was very possible. I also appreciate his comment on it not being a "give-up" post. All in all, his response under pressure gives me a warm feeling. Doubtful is very low on my scumdar currently, and I find his bandwagon very interesting.

Now, a quote by Karma at 10:15am, 11th of June, right after he joined.

The Doubtful wagon is the most interesting thing that's happened this game. I will thusly analyze it.

Here he attacks Doubtful for not understanding the RVS. To me, Doubtful's confusion just came off as newbish, a null tell. You jumping down his neck for it is an obvious example of taking advantage of an easy target.

He jumped on the bandwagon of people finding Doubtful's bandwagon interesting (that's a complicated sentence). He knew Doubtful was going to be seen as innocent and now creates a new bandwagon on Zajnet. He comes off sounding like an experienced player, probably in an attempt to intimidate us newbies. He continuously pushes for the lynching of Zajnet.

Now when Zajnet is finally lynched, Karma acts shocked. Isn't this counter intuitive as scum, you say? I know this might sound WIFOMy but he predicted that no one would suspect him because of his all in. I mean, why would scum do such a thing? To look truely innocent.

Now people are starting to shift their focus onto me=weird and Unloved (as stated earlier in this post). Doubtful creates a bandwagon on Unloved which Karma jumps on without any hestitation. Now guess who the next person to jump on the bandwagon is. That's right, me=weird. Now Unloved and me=weird start having their argument and unfortunately, Doubtful goes V/LA. But that doesn't affect the situation at all.

Karma keeps repeating that he's sure Doubtful is a Townie:

This is personal preference and probably should be some sort of MD thread, but I really don't think talking about town reads is scummy. Antitown could be argued, I guess, but I again disagree. Whenever I play scum, I can tell who the towniest people are. It's really quite obvious. I have NEVER (on this or my alt) been in a scum QT where one of us said "oh, x listed y on their townlist, so let's kill y." It's always "y is really protown. Let's kill him."

Anyways, I'm confident doubtful is town and I'm not afraid to say it. If you want reasons, ISO his D2 posts.

There are two reasons for this.
One, it is fairly obvious to everyone in the game that Doubtful is innocent. This makes him (me) an extremely strong influence in the game, as one 'confirmed' Townie is so strong against only two scum (now one).
Two, Karma almost certainly knew me=weird was going down. That would make Doubtful even more powerful, and by continuously showing his support for Doubtful, he could gain a great ally.

This might be a good time to point out that at the fourth VC of Day 2, it looked like this:

The Fourth Vote Count of Day Two

Me=Weird (3) Quoi, AurorusVox, Porochaz
UnLoved (2) Karma, Me=Weird

Not Voting: UnLoved, Doubtful

With 7 alive, 4 will execute

That VC alone raises suspicion on Karma even without any of the information provided in this post. He obviously didn't want to vote for me=weird after everyone else as that'll be seen as jumping on the bandwagon.

My proposal is simple. Vote Karma. If he dies, we still have 3 Townies and a scum, and one of those Townies may in fact be a Doctor. There will be a night kill (unless the Doctor is successful) and there will be 2 Townies and a scum. Barring any form of analysis, the chances of Townies winning is pretty solid at the moment.

Sorry for my wall of text but I love this game

Vote: Karma

[CSL]

The First Vote Count of Day Three

Karma (1) youngminii

Not Voting: UnLoved, Karma, Porochaz, Quoi

With 5 alive, 3 will execute

Deadline is Sunday, July 18th, at 7:00pm EST. Currently, Karma will be executed if deadline were to hit now.

[Karma]

Whoa, a big wall. I'll get to it in the morning, but what you're proposing is based mostly on the notion that I was trying to defend M=W. That is simply not true - I was basically V/LA due to a horribly busy finals week the week the M=W wagon went down. And I was waiting for a claim, and if it was a VT claim, I would've dropped the hammer. Using POE like that completely eliminates any possibility of bussing, which I'm pretty sure happened.

P.S. I'm an alt - I'm not trying to "trick" you into thinking I'm an experienced player.

[youngminii]

Probably shouldn't have used the word trick, but it's all the same.

I never mentioned that you were trying to

defend

M=W, just that you weren't attacking him. I think it's you, so I wrote up a post that explains why I think there's a better chance of you being scum than anyone else.

[Porochaz]

Im still angry at the events that transpired and I think its worth going through M=W's posts but wont until later

[youngminii]

Let me do that for you, Porochaz.

By page 6, stillawesome (Karma's predecessor) hasn't replied in 6 days.
Now, me=weird realises that his teammate scum has been gone for a long time and so votes for stillawesome

out of the blue.

@STM: You said that Post 19 specifically had expressed your stance, not that you had expressed your stance. Needless to say, post 19 didn't express your stance. Is it bad to vote someone for not posting when they said they would? However, I am thinking you're slightly townish. The vote was mostly pressure, but now I have a new time to expect it, so I'll take it off.
Just now I wrote:
Is it bad to vote someone for not posting when they said they would?

With that,
Unvote, Vote: StillAwesome

If stillawesome is lynched and revealed to be the mafia, me=weird gains all the credit for starting the bandwagon.

Also on page 6, you'll see me=weird pleading with the mods to bring back his scum friend.

StillAwesome: Please post! You said you would have a "nice, juicy post tonight" a week ago!! Actually, MOD: PLEASE PROD STILLAWESOME IT'S BEEN A WEEK SINCE HIS LAST POST

Then, stillawesome was replaced by Karma who, upon realising the situation, immediately directed all attention to Zajnet. As I mentioned before, me=weird jumped on this bandwagon. Take a look for yourself and tell me that this isn't suspicious in any way.

Hmm. A case on Zaj. Actually, scratch that. A good case on Zaj. Good enough for me to vote him. But I'm still suspicious of Skunk!! Speaking of which,
Mod: Prod on Skunkape?
Unvote, Vote: Zajnet

Doesn't give a reason, doesn't give any content, just follows his fellow teammate.

[youngminii]

Also, this is ridiculous. 5 people left in the game and nearly 24 hours after Day 3 began, only three people have posted? With two of those three people not even having posted any content?
I mean, fair enough the deadline for Night 2 was supposed to be more than a week away, but this is still ridiculous.

[CSL]

Ok, everyone who hasn't posted received a prod at the start of the day (Remember those end of night PMs?)

UnLoved's V/LA has ended yesterday, so she should post by tomorrow evening. Quoi is being replaced, unless he posts in time.

And youngminii is correct. It agitates me. You all just lost a day. Deadline is now a day earlier. (Saturday, July 17th, 2010, @ 7:00pm EST)

I will be more forgiving during the holidays (July 2nd-7th will be the days where I'll be forgiving for not posting)

@ youngminii: Deadline for night phases are 3 days, or 72 hours

[Porochaz]

can you give the exact date of the deadline?

[Quoi]

youngminii, you're ignoring Karma's response that your argument rules out bussing.

[youngminii]

Usually when people are bussing, they don't start the bandwagon on their fellow scum. They might if it was blindingly obvious, but at the time it was fair game whether or not me=weird was one. When you started the me=weird bandwagon, it was out of nowhere and while giving the appropriate content, you could have just as easily pointed towards someone else if you and he were both scum.
While I can't really give a reason for Unloved, I feel as if the huge arguments and the quoting with Unloved being on the defensive doesn't quite cut it as bussing. I mean, there are more effective methods rather than two scum going on an all out argument.

Now I have absolutely no way of denying that Porochaz may have been bussing. In fact, he'd be second on my scummy list, but Karma has a LOT more pointing towards him being scum. Here's how I see it. If we assume Porochaz wasn't bussing, then all the evidence points towards Karma. If we don't, then most of the evidence still points towards Karma.

Also, I'll repeat one of the points from my last post.

@STM: You said that Post 19 specifically had expressed your stance, not that you had expressed your stance. Needless to say, post 19 didn't express your stance. Is it bad to vote someone for not posting when they said they would? However, I am thinking you're slightly townish. The vote was mostly pressure, but now I have a new time to expect it, so I'll take it off.
Just now I wrote:
Is it bad to vote someone for not posting when they said they would?

With that,
Unvote, Vote: StillAwesome

Did someone say bussing?

[Karma]

I agree that Quoi is probably not scum. Porochaz, on the other hand, probably is. His bussing (and case) consisted of basically telling M=W he was wrong in terms of mafia theory. He was upset at the self-hammer, most likely because he didn't want to see his scumbuddy go down like that. While I see where you're coming from, minii, you're misguided here.

If we assume Porochaz wasn't bussing, then all the evidence points towards Karma. If we don't, then most of the evidence still points towards Karma.

I don't understand this.

vote: Porochaz

[youngminii]

Pretty much what I'm saying is, Porochaz is less suspicious than you.

Here's my list of reasons why I think lynching Karma is a good idea.
1. I already said that Porochaz is on my second scummiest list because everyone else 'seems' innocent, so you jumped on and accused Porochaz too.
2. A quick look at your profile and posting history (we're allowed to do that right?) shows that you really don't have the time to juggle all the games you're playing. Most likely you've become half-hearted or at the very least, less enthusiastic about this game. As scum, while you don't want to lose, you just don't have the time to write up any juicy content so you half heartedly defend yourself.
3. Even

IF

, and that's a big if imo, you were simply a VT and Porochaz was the real baddie here, it'd still be 2 VT against 1 scum during Day 4. Assuming one of you two are scum, that's a guaranteed win. Obviously I'm not telling you to vote for yourself 'cause that's just stupid, but this is more towards everyone else.

[Karma]

Meh, I see your point. I don't have time to deal with this game, honestly. Shit, I guess if you want to lynch me today and lynch porochaz tomorrow, that's fine. It all works out to a town win. I don't see any chance that Quoi or you is scum. And I totally forgot about unloved. Ehhh it's iffy between unloved and poro.

[youngminii]

Hmm.. How about this.

1. I've played 5 games, won 4/5 of them.

2. My favorite role to play is scum. But I've only been scum once in my past games.

3. I don't feel anything about policy lynches, as in most of my games, we have not needed to do that. Let's hope this game doesn't become inactive enough for us to policy lynch. Lurking can be good, or bad. It's always good to lurk a little if you haven't posted in a while. Otherwise, someone could misread posts and say something wrong.

4. Uhh, I don't see much else to do in the beginning of the game, so I'm all for RVS.

Unloved's favourite role is scum. His level of activity hasn't been that great. If I were in my favourite role, I'd be checking the game quite often. Now this doesn't cross off the possibility of lurking, which is evident:

Last visited:Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:33 am

So clearly, there's been at least some lurking going on by Unloved, especially recently. But as said in the quote, he doesn't think that lurking is wrong if you've been V/LA, as he has. Wouldn't it be funny though, if he IS the scum and simply didn't post so that we could kill each other off? Very WIFOM but it's just some food for thought.

That said, remember the accusations between Unloved and me=weird? Well if that really was bussing, then why in the world would he do this:

V/LA until Sunday. Just to let you know.

This is right when me=weird was at L-1. Why wouldn't he just finish him off? I mean, maybe that was to hide the fact that he's scum (combined with me=weird's suicide) but that level of play is a bit higher than someone that's only played 5 games in their life, and especially only one being scum.

All in all, less suspicious than Porochaz.

Also, I think this would be a great time for a doctor to claim, if there is one. (I'm aware that the scum can try and claim but this still seems like the best route for now).

[youngminii]

Motherf* my quoting is horrible.

Fixed.

[Karma]

I don't think the doc should claim. Just gives the scum an obvious NK.

[youngminii]

I'm sorry, is the doctor not allowed to protect himself?

[Karma]

No.

[youngminii]

I suppose that's better balance wise. Well I guess I can't really do anything but wait for the others to say stuff.

[CSL]

Quoi replaces Quoi.

julienvonwolfe replaces UnLoved.

I needed a lot of replacements this game. I hope you all don't experience this when you all are mods. It's annoying!

[youngminii]

Wow how weird, everyone's a replacement
Also, I think you made a typo on who replaces Quoi.

[CSL]

Quoi beat julien, so Quoi retains his spot. However, UnLoved timed out at the same time, so julien took her spot instead.