Newbie 960 - Game Over

[ToG]

@Equinox,

Found a fault in your Graph, IKID did vote for you yesterday.

[Equinox]

@Equinox,

Found a fault in your Graph, IKID did vote for you yesterday.

Ah, whoops. Thanks for catching the error. I'll go fix that now. I'll also update it, which I haven't done for the past week or so. :S

[Equinox]

I also seem to have missed a large chunk of page 21.

You told me day 1 that you would start looking into mb53s and my play a little bit more. As I do now not have any clear scum targets I would be happy to defend either his or my play.

I was going to, but I'm going to focus for now on NomDePlume and Skill006.

It's interesting, though, that you're not accusing anyone or mentioning any reads. Are you still on the same reads you had yesterday, or have things changed and you haven't mentioned it?

in my previo9us games, the doc obs protects the cop so he gets 1 check at least? i just thought that was pretty obvious guess not

Well, Memnon died, so it wasn't so obvious; not to mention I know of cases where the protection went somewhere else. I had to ask to make sure.

[I Am Innocent]

I know we are still waiting on NDP's Doc CC, but I think we need to keep this game moving forward in the meantime. If he CC's, we have 1 of 2 targets. If not, we are back to the drawing board. Here are my thoughts, though I do admit to not doing a full re-read as I am preparing for a sale of my house/move here in the near future...

ToG, Sotty, NDP. I got town reads on these three D1 and not much has changed. A lot of people have suspicions on NDP, I just don't see it and would love if someone could put together the full case against him. He seems to be playing a very similar game to my last with him. Sotty I am keeping an eye on. She seems very certain Andrew is innocent. I obviously don't see it. Plus insinuating some of us were trying to get Andrew lynched early D2 when in fact we wanted information that would give reasons not to lynch him just feels off. Still, as the evidence stands right now, I will not be voting these three players.

That leaves my top 3 suspects

1) Andrew. I stated my main case earlier. Also note that he had made 1 whole vote D1, which could be considered an OMGUS vote on a now confirmed innocent. Still, with the Cop dead, Andrew is the only player we could confirm a townie if we nab a Roleblocker, which would prove there is a Doctor. With that I do not think I am voting Andrew unless we get to LyLo or more condemning evidence comes forward.

**************

2) Skill. She made one vote D1, for Memnon, an easy wagon to climb on. When imkingdavid and Andrew were at L-1 & L-2 respectively, she did not vote. As a matter of fact at one point she still suggested a lynch of Memnon. How nice would that be, kill the Cop so she could take out a more experienced player at night?

Well, I'll just say that I'm not a cop. I'm kind of doubtful of memnon's claim. I'll unvote though:

unvote

Even so, if we can't come to an agreement on who else we should lynch by deadline we may have to resort back to memnon (especially if nobody counter-claims).

Her disappearance for 52 hours right around the Andrew claim and ikd lynch seemed to convenient as well. "I'm sorry guys, I can't believe I completely forgot about this game >.> For a couple of the more important days too." Yeah I can't believe it either.

3) Equinox. I go back and forth on her. She is all over the place, yet part of me is okay with that. It helps create pressure, plus a ton of trails that will make it an easy trail back to Equinox as the game moves on, if she is indeed scum.

As it stands right now, my vote for D2 will be Equinox or Skill. Right now the evidence points more towards Skill.

vote: Skill006

[Sotty7]

I took the weekend away from the game in an effort to get better and what have you. Still feeling sick today, but I am improving. I haven't read any posts from my last but expect me back and fully participating by tomorrow at least.

[Skill006]

Be back in a couple of hours to get to IAI's post. Hopefully I'll have more time today to look through some of the thread.

Good to hear you're getting better, sotty

[Skill006]

Her disappearance for 52 hours right around the Andrew claim and ikd lynch seemed too convenient as well. "I'm sorry guys, I can't believe I completely forgot about this game >.> For a couple of the more important days too." Yeah I can't believe it either.

I'm sorry if you don't believe it either, but I was being honest. I mean, I rarely actually 'forget about the thread,' something in my day always reminds me that I should post, or at least check the thread. That was one occasion where it completely slipped my mind.

Skill. She made one vote D1, for Memnon, an easy wagon to climb on. When imkingdavid and Andrew were at L-1 & L-2 respectively, she did not vote.

I'm sorry, but I can't get myself to vote someone who I don't think is scummy, and I didn't find either of them scummy. I don't know if I would have had the guts to vote them had I even been there for deadline, since I tend not to vote, even in a no lynch situation.

Here is a game where I had the same problem (I was townie, by the way). The link leads right to the post outlining my 'crimes'.

As a matter of fact at one point she still suggested a lynch of Memnon. How nice would that be, kill the Cop so she could take out a more experienced player at night?

All I was thinking at the time of that post was that power roles' usefulness is kind of overexaggerated, so I wouldn't really mind lynching him, since I still honestly thought he was scum.

[Skill006]

With all that being said,

@mod: Can you please replace me?

I really hate to do this to all of you, but my play is going to get disgustingly lazy (even moreso than it already is) and I don't think I'll be able to keep up with the game with everything going on right now. Summer just isn't a good time for me to play mafia.

[inHimshallibe]

With all that being said,

@mod: Can you please replace me?

I really hate to do this to all of you, but my play is going to get disgustingly lazy (even moreso than it already is) and I don't think I'll be able to keep up with the game with everything going on right now. Summer just isn't a good time for me to play mafia.

No problem, Skill006. Have a fun summer, and do come back when you have the time.

In other news, NomDePlume has encountered circumstances warranting replacement as well. I'm already working on that.

[andrew94]

With all that being said,

@mod: Can you please replace me?

I really hate to do this to all of you, but my play is going to get disgustingly lazy (even moreso than it already is) and I don't think I'll be able to keep up with the game with everything going on right now. Summer just isn't a good time for me to play mafia.

too pro, playing the replacement card now

[Equinox]

What part of Skill006's post feels "too pro"?

Replacing out is a null tell. Once you leave the game like that, whatever happens in the game is no longer your responsibility; in addition, replacing out is usually an indication of something in real life, not game-related. Not sure what you're trying to say there with the "replacement card."

[Equinox]

...bad habit of mine, not going backwards from new posts. ~_~

Hope everything goes well, Skill006!

Get well soon, Sotty7!

Sotty I am keeping an eye on. She seems very certain Andrew is innocent. I obviously don't see it.

On the other hand, Sotty7-scum doesn't benefit from this adamant refusal to lynch andrew94, nor would Sotty7-scum benefit from any changes of opinion regarding andrew94 later in the game. Not worth the IGMEOY, IMO.

With that I do not think I am voting Andrew unless we get to LyLo or more condemning evidence comes forward.

The first part makes it sound like you are going to lynch andrew94 in LyLo. I'm not comfortable with this statement. (I think I know where you're going here, but I'm still uneasy with the implication.) Second part is fine.

Back to twiddling my thumbs until people come back to the game.

[ToG]

With all that being said,

@mod: Can you please replace me?

I really hate to do this to all of you, but my play is going to get disgustingly lazy (even moreso than it already is) and I don't think I'll be able to keep up with the game with everything going on right now. Summer just isn't a good time for me to play mafia.

too pro, playing the replacement card now

Does this mean that you think she is scum ?

When did you change your opinion about her ?

Why don't you suspect NDP if replacing out means scum for you ?

[Equinox]

ToG, your Day 2 posts have mostly revolved around the doctor claim and setup speculation, and your larger response doesn't speak of any stances either way except for the focus on andrew94. Why are you focusing on andrew94?

[I Am Innocent]

Sotty I am keeping an eye on. She seems very certain Andrew is innocent. I obviously don't see it.

On the other hand, Sotty7-scum doesn't benefit from this adamant refusal to lynch andrew94, nor would Sotty7-scum benefit from any changes of opinion regarding andrew94 later in the game. Not worth the IGMEOY, IMO.

I see what you are saying but that 1) implies they are not teammates and 2) ignores a LyLo situation. In a LyLo situation, scum can pile on after others vote, so no need to worry about a change of opinion.

In all actuality, I really do keep an eye on everyone. Just the recent Sotty stuff made me a little uneasy, that is all.

With that I do not think I am voting Andrew unless we get to LyLo or more condemning evidence comes forward.

The first part makes it sound like you are going to lynch andrew94 in LyLo. I'm not comfortable with this statement. (I think I know where you're going here, but I'm still uneasy with the implication.) Second part is fine.

Don't forget it takes more than one person to lynch...

With that said, I don't think we should strategically talk about who we may or may not want to vote for/lynch in future days. My earlier point being, if Andrew is still alive in LyLo, his Doctor claim should not automatically be believed.

[Sotty7]

Thank you for the well wishes. Feeling a lot better now.

I don't see anyone even remotely suggesting an andrew94 lynch. Not sure why you're focused on that.

It was just the impression I got from both you and IAI's tone towards Andrew and how you are demanding he claim who he protected. Are you saying that you don't want an Andrew lynch?

1] Teaching condition? It is widely accepted though out the site that set up speculation is scummy. So what are you talking about here?

Interesting. I've never had an objection to doing setup analysis. You're the first for me.

How many games have you played and do you have an up to date wiki?

Set up speculation AKA IIOA. It is pretty standard scum tell and has been for some time. Like I explained earlier, talking set up allows the scum to look busy and proactive while not actually scum hunting. We could sit here and talk about possible sets ups right up until the deadline and nothing will really be done. Also scum already

know

the set up so they could be easily running rings around everyone, polluting the town with bad information. Talking set up only helps the scum. There is no viable way, in newbie games at least, where it helps the town.

= = = = =

I think set up analysis

early in a day is not scummy

. It sets the parameters on who one should or should not vote for, which could have a big impact on the number of scum we are able to lynch. Especially if you think Andrew may be scum which I do.

lol well, you can underline it all you like, you're still wrong. Unless you are playing in a complicated theme game IIOA is scummy always. Tell me why Andrew is scum without talking about the set up.

We have three confirmed townies who voted for Andrew: Memnon, Ren and imkingdavid.

So? Confirmed townie doesn't mean auto right. Plus, didn't most of the game vote Andrew at one point or other? I don't like the use of “confirmed townie” phrase. It's trying to lend weight to a poor argument. I find it scummy.

Andrew was asking about power roles early on to Ren. He claimed at L-2. If there are two goons, he would have had a pretty good idea no CC was coming as the Cop already came forward.

Andrew talking about power roles and claiming one doesn't make sense to you? Are you saying that Andrew, who is still calling the scum “wolves” has spent time looking over the set ups and realized he could fake claim doc? You are uber reaching here.

If there is no CC, I agree Andrew is off limits today. But note if Andrew is off limits today and he is scum, we now have a 1 in 6 chance of hitting the other one.

Appeal to fear. (This is also scummy for those keeping score.)

Sotty I am keeping an eye on. She seems very certain Andrew is innocent. I obviously don't see it. Plus insinuating some of us were trying to get Andrew lynched early D2 when in fact we wanted information that would give reasons not to lynch him just feels off.

I'm not 100% on Andrew being innocent. I just think that what we have seen from him doesn't point to scum. Pretty much exactly like your opinion with Nom. You don't get the scum reads from him like I don't with Andrew. Why is this okay for you and not me? Also I explained why I thought you were trying to lynch Andrew plus you said yourself you find him scummy so it looks to me as if I was right, about you at least.

With all that said I do like your Skill vote, that is probably the best reasoning I have seen you post today.

= = = = = =

@the speculation we just had at the start of the day
I think that a setup speculation is pretty useless and a player should never be lynched on any setup speculations. I don't find it scummy or townie only useless.

Useless, yet you went on to speculate about the set up

anyway

. Why?

= = = = =

I'm going to do something I don't normally do.

Unvote

I'm wavering on Equinox she feels like a pro town force at times but her actions make me ick. This is one case were I think I need to look into the meta of a player to really figure this out. Add on top of that we have two replacements coming in and my sickness has put me out of touch with this game. I will have to take some time and either re-read or at least do some ISOs.

So yeah I'm up in the air and working to fix that ASAP.

[I Am Innocent]

Set up speculation AKA IIOA. It is pretty standard scum tell and has been for some time. Like I explained earlier, talking set up allows the scum to look busy and proactive while not actually scum hunting. We could sit here and talk about possible sets ups

right up until the deadline and nothing will really be done

. Also scum already

know

the set up so they could be easily running rings around everyone, polluting the town with bad information. Talking set up only helps the scum. There is no viable way, in newbie games at least, where it helps the town.

This was directed at Equinox but I would like to comment on a couple of things:

1) Thanks for the link. I have been accused of Chainsawing someone in another game. Now I know what they are talking about...

2) Once again, I'll underline. I don't think anyone was trying to talk setups til the deadline. At least I wasn't. Tis a shame that Skill bailed out, she would tell you a strategy that Deer and I came up with in Newbie 950. Yeah it involved a lot of set up speculation, but our strategy almost all but guaranteed us a win. So once again, I will disagree with you that talking set up at the beginning of the day is scummy.

As Newbie 950 demonstrates, you are 100% wrong in your last two sentences above.

I think set up analysis

early in a day is not scummy

. It sets the parameters on who one should or should not vote for, which could have a big impact on the number of scum we are able to lynch. Especially if you think Andrew may be scum which I do.

lol well, you can underline it all you like, you're still wrong. Unless you are playing in a complicated theme game IIOA is scummy always.

Points addressed above. Once again, Newbie 950 is case in point why you are wrong.

Tell me why Andrew is scum without talking about the set up.

Yes I could do that, but I cannot tell you why it is not in our best interest to lynch Andrew prior to LyLo without talking about the set up.

We have three confirmed townies who voted for Andrew: Memnon, Ren and imkingdavid.

So? Confirmed townie doesn't mean auto right. Plus, didn't most of the game vote Andrew at one point or other? I don't like the use of “confirmed townie” phrase. It's trying to lend weight to a poor argument. I find it scummy.

I agree it doesn't mean that it is auto right, but it also should not be ignored. Obv disagree that it is a poor argument.

BTW, you are right that every player slot except yours and NDP has a vote on Andrew at some point.

Andrew was asking about power roles early on to Ren. He claimed at L-2. If there are two goons, he would have had a pretty good idea no CC was coming as the Cop already came forward.

Andrew talking about power roles and claiming one doesn't make sense to you? Are you saying that Andrew, who is still calling the scum “wolves” has spent time looking over the set ups and realized he could fake claim doc? You are uber reaching here.

Why the claim at L-2? I still don't believe I have seen an answer to that.

Sotty I am keeping an eye on. She seems very certain Andrew is innocent. I obviously don't see it. Plus insinuating some of us were trying to get Andrew lynched early D2 when in fact we wanted information that would give reasons not to lynch him just feels off.

I'm not 100% on Andrew being innocent. I just think that what we have seen from him doesn't point to scum. Pretty much exactly like your opinion with Nom. You don't get the scum reads from him like I don't with Andrew. Why is this okay for you and not me?

My opinion of NDP is that I don't see him as scummy and I said I don't see myself voting for him D2. Your take on Andrew is more than just a statement of innocence and a reassurance of no vote that way. You are defending him to no end. Like I said earlier, it is noted.

Also I explained why I thought you were trying to lynch Andrew plus you said yourself you find him scummy so it looks to me as if I was right, about you at least.

Right in that I find him scummy? Yes. Right in that I think we should lynch him D2? Nopers.

[Equinox]

It was just the impression I got from both you and IAI's tone towards Andrew and how you are demanding he claim who he protected. Are you saying that you don't want an Andrew lynch?

If I had my way, andrew94 would be dead before LyLo. Given the situation as it is right now, however, I do not want to lynch him because what I'm getting from him is an anti-town feel, but not a scum read.

How many games have you played and do you have an up to date wiki?

Wiki is up-to-date. 3 completed games.

The instances where I did do setup analysis can be found in 940 and 945; neither instance was met with opposition. I wish I pushed the analysis + scum slip more in 940, and I did it wrong in 945 (...which was embarrassing >_>).

That said, point taken that setup analysis is anti-town.

EBWOPreview:

I have a comment regarding the L-2 claim, but I'm going to wait for an answer from andrew94 first.

[I Am Innocent]

Ahhh, memories...(from Newbie 950)

And even more rolefishing? Crazy.

Doc, do not claim!

Here's what will happen:

1. We leave vezo alive, lynch until we either find the last scum or end up in lylo or if he gets to L-1.

2. If there is a doctor revealed, either through an L-1 claim or an NK, then we know vezo is legit. That's a confirmed townie right there.

3. If no doc is revealed and we get to lylo, then they'll ask for the doc to claim. If neither person claims doc, vezo is scum. If someone does claim doc, then the doc will have to decide in lylo.

But, the doctor should not come out. Asking for that just puts more suspicion on you - you're an SE, after all. You can't use the noob excuse.

Agreed, Doc should not claim until LyLo.

There is 0 benefit to having the doc claim right now.

If we did ask for a doc claim now, the only good thing that happens is if no doc comes forward, we know vezo is lying and we lynch him.

But many bad things can happen, like a doc comes forward, but then gets killed N2 (and cop blocked N2), and then N3 the cop dies. We get to D4 with 0 confirmed innocents.

We get the same benefit if we wait until LyLo to ask for the Doc claim if trying to determine vezo's innocence is legit or not. If no doc claim happens, you lynch vezo. If a doc claim happens, you have 1 confirmed innocent (the Doctor), who has a 50/50 chance at a win.

I plan on rereading the thread in the next few days, and will present my choice for the lynch.

My thoughts:

1) If there is not a doctor, we are guaranteed the win.

2) If there is a doctor, we need to keep him/her hidden as long as possible.

We now uncovered two people who both claim vanilla townie. I don't think strategically we should uncover anymore D2, esp since I like Deer believe one of these two players to be the remaining scum. We still have two mislynches left, so strategically we are better off choosing between these two people and making it harder for the scum to find the doctor...

Please, in the future, nobody hammer without giving a chance to claim. That is just not good play at all.

As for fuzzy/reality, I think I am still leaning towards fuzzy. Lord B lurked early, I called him on it, and then he played consistently. fuzzy lurked early, was prodded, answered the prod in about 3 hours, and now he is here full time it seems. I wonder if fuzzy suggested the early lurking to Lord B as newbies seem to shoot themselves in the foot in these games.

Factor in the L-2 drama during RVS and the vote out vezo D2, I am leaning towards fuzzy and will keep my vote there for now.

[andrew94]

i dont get the above post



replacement card=
ppl1;lynch ppl2
ppl2: sup i gotta go replace me pls

ppl3,4,5,6 ok ok we cant kill replacement etc etc etc
replacement ppl 2:sup reading throught blh blah blah
3 days later:

ppl2 is WOLF
GG

[ToG]

i dont get the above post



replacement card=
ppl1;lynch ppl2
ppl2: sup i gotta go replace me pls

ppl3,4,5,6 ok ok we cant kill replacement etc etc etc
replacement ppl 2:sup reading throught blh blah blah
3 days later:

ppl2 is WOLF
GG

I don't think that anyone is that cheap... Maybe I am just too naive but I don't think anyone would use a that tactic. It does not mean that the person replacing out is not a wolf, hence everyone with the exception of Equinox and Andrew94 have gotten replaced. It is just a null tell.

[Equinox]

ToG, your Day 2 posts have mostly revolved around the doctor claim and setup speculation, and your larger response doesn't speak of any stances either way except for the focus on andrew94. Why are you focusing on andrew94?

ToG, address this concern, please.

[I Am Innocent]

Skill's last day in the game:

Be back in a couple of hours to get to IAI's post. Hopefully I'll have more time today to look through some of the thread.

Good to hear you're getting better, sotty

She asked for replacement three hours later.

Her disappearance for 52 hours right around the Andrew claim and ikd lynch seemed too convenient as well. "I'm sorry guys, I can't believe I completely forgot about this game >.> For a couple of the more important days too." Yeah I can't believe it either.

I'm sorry if you don't believe it either, but I was being honest. I mean, I rarely actually 'forget about the thread,'

something in my day always reminds me that I should post

, or at least check the thread. That was one occasion where it completely slipped my mind.

First underline means she usually checks daily. Second underline implies it slipped her mind once (one occasion). Yet it was over 52 hours/2 days, so it obv slipped her mind to check daily more than once. Subtle contradiction.

Skill. She made one vote D1, for Memnon, an easy wagon to climb on. When imkingdavid and Andrew were at L-1 & L-2 respectively, she did not vote.

I'm sorry, but I can't get myself to vote someone who I don't think is scummy, and I didn't find either of them scummy. I don't know if I would have had the guts to vote them had I even been there for deadline, since I tend not to vote, even in a no lynch situation.

No lynch = scummy. Plus it is noted the continued lack of stance/voting on her part.

As a matter of fact at one point she still suggested a lynch of Memnon. How nice would that be, kill the Cop so she could take out a more experienced player at night?

All I was thinking at the time of that post was that power roles' usefulness is kind of overexaggerated, so I wouldn't really mind lynching him, since I still honestly thought he was scum.

A Cop's usefulness is "kind of overexaggerated"?!? Even if you thought he was scum, there was another one out there. And his lies would have been bound to catch up to him as the game went on and he continued to survive. Suggesting a lynch of Memnon D1 was and is still scummy. No way around that.

I continue to like where my vote is.

[Sotty7]

This was directed at Equinox but I would like to comment on a couple of things:

1) Thanks for the link. I have been accused of Chainsawing someone in another game. Now I know what they are talking about...

2) Once again, I'll underline. I don't think anyone was trying to talk setups til the deadline. At least I wasn't. Tis a shame that Skill bailed out, she would tell you a strategy that Deer and I came up with in Newbie 950. Yeah it involved a lot of set up speculation, but our strategy almost all but guaranteed us a win. So once again, I will disagree with you that talking set up at the beginning of the day is scummy.

As Newbie 950 demonstrates, you are 100% wrong in your last two sentences above.

There is no such thing as 100% wrong! But I am willing to admit that both you and Equinox are just committing newb tells not scum tells. We could argue all day about how IIOA is scummy regardless of the time of day but it would get us nowhere. At this point I am willing to put a pin on it and move on. When I get a hot minute I will check out newbie 950.

Yes I could do that, but I cannot tell you why it is not in our best interest to lynch Andrew prior to LyLo without talking about the set up.

You know this sentence contradicts itself...Right?

I agree it doesn't mean that it is auto right, but it also should not be ignored. Obv disagree that it is a poor argument.

BTW, you are right that every player slot except yours and NDP has a vote on Andrew at some point.

Okay lets try it this way.

Can you A) explain to me why the fact confirmed townies voted for Andrew is something we shouldn't ignore?

And B) Tell me why your point above isn't diluted extremely by the fact everyone but two players have voted for him at some time.

Andrew was asking about power roles early on to Ren. He claimed at L-2. If there are two goons, he would have had a pretty good idea no CC was coming as the Cop already came forward.

Andrew talking about power roles and claiming one doesn't make sense to you? Are you saying that Andrew, who is still calling the scum “wolves” has spent time looking over the set ups and realized he could fake claim doc? You are uber reaching here.

Why the claim at L-2? I still don't believe I have seen an answer to that.

You have, he answered you I remember. You might not like the answer however.

It is also noted that you didn't actually answer my question.

My opinion of NDP is that I don't see him as scummy and I said I don't see myself voting for him D2. Your take on Andrew is more than just a statement of innocence and a reassurance of no vote that way. You are defending him to no end. Like I said earlier, it is noted.

No, you are missrepping me. We have the same stances, you have defended Nom about as much as I have defended Andrew, why is it different? I have nowhere,

absolutely nowhere

stated with 100% confidence

that Andrew is town which you seem to be implying here. (I even underlined it for you!)

Right in that I find him scummy? Yes. Right in that I think we should lynch him D2? Nopers.

But from my POV you can surly understand why I would think you wanted him lynched today. You have since moved onto Skill, but at the time you were focused on him.

I see your newbie 950 quotes, but I will have to look though that game as to gauge the context.

Also another good post on Skill and I am half tempted to join you in voting that player slot right now. But I will further sit on my vote until I have had the time to check the meta and read the game again. Also my gut is tripping on you. I will say though, if the Skill player slot flips scum, you probably aren't her partner.

As a side note,

I will have limited access over Sat/Sun/Mon coming up.

My parents will be visiting so I am not sure how much time I will have to post. I will try and check in on the game once a day though.

[andrew94]

limited access?