Mini 973: "Bawhston" Brawl (WHAT A WIN!)

[Hoopla]

Ah, in case my first point in my previous post isn't clear - havingfitz mentions several times Midnight's Sorrow is almost certainly town, then his summary pins him as a suspect....two posts later.

[Hoopla]

You are right on your assumptions 2 and 3. You are wrong on #1, which interestingly enough, you do not have at 100%. You know your role...Nik is confirmed through no counter...so why isn’t #1 100%?

Because cops don't always exist in Mini Normal games, so the lack of counterclaim isn't confirmation in any way. The end of this post pretty much sums up my feelings for Nikanor. There is no way the town has just me as the only power role against 3-4 scum. I've never seen a Mini Normal with only one town power role in a game with at least 3 anti-town players - this is in 300+ games. So it is exceedingly unlikely that myself or Nikanor are fakeclaiming. We just wouldn't have enough power.

You've pretty much sacrificed any chance of a draw now with this recent attack on me, though.

[yabbaguy]

Nikanor prodded again.

[Oso]

@ Nik and Hoopla

Here

- snip -

I think Midnight Sorrow and Oso could potentially be unwittingly bussing without the knowledge that it leads to an endgame where they can't win. I make this assumption on the basis that they are new players and may not understand the function of my role in endgames - in any case, they should check out the link I provided as it explains the mechanic of my role and if I survive.

- snip -

One thing I can agree with in that is that yes, in the beginning of the game I didn't understand the role. Until this game, I hadn't even seen a PGO claim in any of the off-site games I have played in before coming to mafiascum. Only a few roles that I can only guess that were based off that basic role. One thing all those games off-site did was nail in my mind that a defensive killer preempts all kill attempts on them. Hence the confusion I had when I made this post and this post

The first post shows that I was trying to use the claimed Vig (who turned out to be the SK) to confim a PGO or at worst, kill a liar. The second, where I quoted the wiki article, asks for clarification as even after reading it, I wasn't going to assume the PGO wasn't preemptive even though the article didn't explicitly say so. Hoopla answered me and explained why my understanding of the role was off. No one contradicted or clarified her answer so I took it at that point that was how the role worked. Now unless you think I was deliberately lying in that exchange about my knowledge, then I ask you to consider this.

If Hoopla is correct, then I am scum because my inexperience with mafia (a wrong assumption in itself, I am simply new to the MafiaScum site) has caused me to help get my team into a situation that we can't get out of. So, with my inexperience with mafia in general and the PGO in particular I must also be dense enough to have first made an attempt to get the PGO confirmed first?? Before hosing up my play so bad I helped back my team into an unrecoverable corner?

Remember, if I'm scum, I have to know that that Hoopla's PGO stands a pretty good chance of being true but even knowing that I went ahead and tried to get an un-NKable townie confirmed thus making her unlynchable as well?

I'ma have to go retake the I.Q test. I think maybe a relative paid someone off so I got a higher score than I was supposed to. If I was scum and thought the PGO was unNightKillable, the last thing I (or anyone else who had a thinking capacity greater than a turnip) would do is push to have anyone confirm her.

You can't have it both ways really there Hoopla. Either I am so unfamiliar with the role and how to play mafia in general, that I helped back my team into a corner after having tried to confirm the one player at that point that would have guaranteed she never would be lynched. Or that I lied about my knowledge and tried to 'Forrest Gump' my way into getting someone not-mafia to try and kill you so the we wouldn't have to. Or, as a final thought, maybe you do think I am really that dumb and that poor of a player and I did both.

That where Hoopla's logic chain has it's flaw at least in today's discussion. She is basing on the premise that the 'Oso' part of the poor fitz/Oso team has let my unfamiliarity with the PGO role and game get them into trouble while ignoring evidence in the thread that shows the opposite, Namely that while I am unfamiliar with the role I did attempt to use another role to confirm her claim based on the knowledge of the role as I understood it before it was explained to me.

If Hoopla is right, I am unfamiliar enough with the role (and she's right, I was) that I tried to use my erroneous understanding of a PGO to get her confirmed. That is town. If not then I lied about my knowledge. That is scum. The problem here is that Hoopla is basing her attack today based on her perception of my abilities and my (lack of) understanding on PGO role and not on the fact I might have lied about that knowledge and thus keeping me in her pool of suspects and eligible for being scum for the wrong stated reasons.

I am unconfirmed to the vast majority of the town. I am confirmed with fitz as I have used my alignment to make a call on his alignment and he knows I am telling the truth just as I know he is. That's where Hoopla is getting the fitz/Oso team. This breaks that. I may have been lying in my knowledge of the role and was trying to get Hoopla VIG killed and am basing my knowledge of calling fitz town based on my being scum and he's not on my team. Or I didn't lie about my knowledge of the PGO role and tried to confirm Hoopla's claim in the only way i could think of and I know fitz is town because he didn't hammer me when he had the chance. Hammering an exposed townie is something I think scum would have almost have to do at this point in the game.

Hoopla has arrived at the conclusion that I'm scum based on flawed logic or the assumption that I am just really stump dumb and therefore hasn't eliminated me from her pool of elimination suspects. fitz, as I see it now, gets the 'guilt by association' from that and the fact that Hoopla hasn't eliminated him from her pool of suspects for other stated reasons. Get right with the fact that I am not scum, at least not for Hoopla's stated reasons and fitz gets a stamp of 'Town' leaving us right back at IP/MS.

[InflatablePie]

Wall of text after wall of text, and all you guys really do is say the same thing. Oso says fitz is town because... he's town, and fitz does the same to Oso. Hoopla keeps saying she thinks MS is town so the votals lead to fitz/Oso and I agree. I assume MS agrees with Hoopla since he's voting as such.

Oso, what you don't realize is that this scumteam theory is supported because fitz did not hammer you, not to mention the constant calling each other town thing. As opposed to me getting three votes from the unconfirmed.

I didn't see Hoopla's quote as an insult to your intelligence and think you might be overreacting.

[Oso]

Ok, Inflatable. Re-read my last post and tell me what you think of my referencing those first 2 posts after the quote.

Was I lying about my reasons for thinking that sicking a Vig on Hoopla was a good idea, but a bad play based on not understanding the role? Or an outright lie to kill the PGO so Hoopla could be gotten out of the way without a mafia loss and I used supposed ignorance to cover it up?

If you think that I am lying and that I did understand the role, how is it that Hoopla was able to catch the MS/Oso "possible bussing" because of inexperience/not understanding" Granted anyone can make a mistake but do you think in a team of three people (the assumption that everyone is going on at the moment and one I happen to agree with), that somewhere along the line at least one of them would have gamed it out into the endgame and figured it out and discussed it with their partners? Assuming that three people collectively made that big of a mistake is beyond reason. It is very remotely possible in my opinion but so close to zero that my belief is that option shouldn't even be considered by any thinking person. And I certainly wouldn't base any real assumptions off of it.

For that work, you'd have to assume that Gwynplaine, fitz and myself all managed to miss it.

Hoopla was right in the fact that I am inexperienced as far the role goes and I made a mistake with it. But that mistake came on day 2 when I made an assumption that we could prove Hoopla as a PGO. Why? Because I had no one else to discuss what I thought it meant with anyone other than in thread during the daytime, not by missing the fact that it would be a bad move to have 1 scum/1 PGO in the endgame.

[havingfitz]

OK...brief access in a cool pub in BFE. Drinking a Warsteiner and checking to see if the game has been lost. Not yet thankfully.

I guess the "less is more" approach just isn't cutting it anymore .-.

@Fitz:

I have had and still do have opinions in this game, and have stated thus, albeit sometimes somewhat loosely. Yet like most things, they are fickle and change with the winds(posts).

There's one thing I'm most certain on, though, and that is that Hoopla is telling the truth about her PGO claim. I don't think scum would do what she did in her first post like that, for the simple fact that it would probably have backfired more often then not, and wouldn't be that much more optimal then just playing the game as is. Hoopla seems to be a optimal kind of gal to me, and I don't think she'd claim something like that in the beginning because of that. Plus, going against my hatred of Meta, because this seems like one of those times it's needed, I went and checked the games in where she fake claimed, and tbqh I don't feel the same..'air'...about her claim in this one that I felt seeping off those ones in the other games. I feel this one is genuine.

Also, I'd like to ask why the hell other people flipping scum makes me one by association...wtf? From where my point of view is looking at, I don't think that's even possible. Sorry.~

MS...why don't you take your vote off Oso and give your position a rethink. If you are in fact town...think over the different combinations that make sense and give this game the consideration it deserves. What makes you certain Hoopla is telling the truth? Because she says so? Great. That was easy. What is your gut's record btw? How do the combinations work out if I am telling the truth (which I am btw)?

@Hoopla....what does me mentioning MS could be/definitely is/might be/whatever I said be town have to do with it? Things change as new information comes to light or as new probabilities come into view. I am not 100% sure you are scum....but the fact you are not even willing to consider MS and IP as scum leads me to believe you are not considering it because you want this game over and you are IP's partner. From what I have seen of your play I have a good amount of respect for your game (warsteiner speaking) and if you were in fact town, I do not think you would have a blind eye to all the options.

Also...answer this...why at this point in the game should anyone consider your PGO claim any more valid than a town claim? They shouldn't. At this point in the game you are on the same level as all of us...except for Nik. Who you do not want to proclaim 100% town, yet make the point it would be ridiculously unlikley that there would not be a town PR (with or without your claim being valid)...yet you don't give Nik and you the 100% seal of approval.

How many games only have a cop as the lone town PR? Assuming there are no others.

Also...your coming off of my wagon is null as you left it in frustration when the rest of the players began to focus their votes elsewhere.

I stand by my opinion...the lasst two scum are either MS and IP or Hoopla and IP.

IP is the common scum so he needs to go. If you are telling the truth with your claim hoopla then unvote and give it a think.

IP 100% scum. MS or Hoopla even at 50/50.


Back in 24 hrs....fingers crossed.

- Town

[InflatablePie]

Okay, I'm sick and have a headache from hell and tried reading your posts Oso, but I'm still so damn confused. I really don't get what either of you are going on about.

I'll comment on it tomorrow unless you're lynched by then or unless I'm feeling better later. k?

fitz's post is full of AtE though - anyone with eyes can see that.

[yabbaguy]

The door to the observation deck is locked. Nobody could have gotten in without the key.

Once again, the mob's escape from law enforcement has been facilitated. Who helped this time?

Vote Count:

4 to lynch

Oso (3): Hoopla, InflatablePie, Midnight's Sorrow
InflatablePie (2): havingfitz, Oso

Not Voting: Nikanor

Deadline: 7/9 @ 8 PM GMT-4. No Lynch occurs if this elapses.
Still Prodding: Nikanor (PM picked up)
havingfitz's LA recorded.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla....what does me mentioning MS could be/definitely is/might be/whatever I said be town have to do with it? Things change as new information comes to light or as new probabilities come into view. I am not 100% sure you are scum....but the fact you are not even willing to consider MS and IP as scum leads me to believe you are not considering it because you want this game over and you are IP's partner. From what I have seen of your play I have a good amount of respect for your game (warsteiner speaking) and if you were in fact town, I do not think you would have a blind eye to all the options.

Because it was two posts and two hours later. You kept on filling your post with assurances MS is town, then suddenly concluded he is a candidate. You're strawmanning me completely - I have considered a lot of different scenarios. I led the Gwynplaine wagon yesterday counter to the popular MS-wagon, I stopped your wagon and started an IP wagon today, and then stopped that again when it became clear Oso was scum. My opinions have shifted in a very transparent manner, and I've always made the rationale behind my decisions clear. You're the one that continuously flipflops without reason - just look at the way you handle my claim.

Also...answer this...why at this point in the game should anyone consider your PGO claim any more valid than a town claim? They shouldn't. At this point in the game you are on the same level as all of us...except for Nik. Who you do not want to proclaim 100% town, yet make the point it would be ridiculously unlikley that there would not be a town PR (with or without your claim being valid)...yet you don't give Nik and you the 100% seal of approval.

Aren't you the one decrying my role-claim? You're upset that people are believing my claim and I shouldn't be confirmed or seen town from it. Okay, fair enough. But you then can't use my claim to incriminate me either, if you want to judge a player without taking role into consideration. You need to say why my play (not my role) is suspicious - if you can only rely on my role to incriminate me, you accept that you can judge a player based on role, and thus open up the possibility of people seeing me as town from my claim.

I never proclaim 100% for anything other than my own innocence. It is extremely likely he is a town cop (and you agree), so I don't know why you keep mentioning this.

How many games only have a cop as the lone town PR? Assuming there are no others.

In 2:1:9's and 3:1:8's (the only possible set-ups we're in), it has happened ZERO times. It has also never happened that a single town power role has existed. There has always been

at least

two, which should be enough to confirm myself and Nikanor. The only time a game has existed with less than two power roles is in a 2:10 game, which isn't relevant to us here. If you want the data for the 2:1:9 and 3:1:8 games, I'm more than happy to dump it if you want to double check, but I can assure you there have been no games with just one power role in those set-ups.

I'm town. If you don't think my role confirms me (or should be a factor at all), then pick apart my play and tell me why I'm scum. Why would I lead a Gwynplaine wagon over MS on Day 3? Why would I set-up an InflatablePie lynch and then destroy it? Your answer to these questions can't be that I am scum with both. So, why would I sacrifice an easy scum win just to fool you further?

[Hoopla]

If Nikanor doesn't get in here soon, I'll be a little ticked off.

[InflatablePie]

I read that like 5 times and still don't know what Oso is trying to say. I feel stupid.

[Hoopla]

I read that like 5 times and still don't know what Oso is trying to say. I feel stupid.

That's what craplogic is designed to do. Don't feel bad.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

MS...why don't you take your vote off Oso and give your position a rethink. If you are in fact town...think over the different combinations that make sense and give this game the consideration it deserves. What makes you certain Hoopla is telling the truth? Because she says so? Great. That was easy. What is your gut's record btw? How do the combinations work out if I am telling the truth (which I am btw)?

While I haven't posted much, why do you assume that I haven't given this game the 'consideration it deserves'?

That's not fair.

There's only so much a man can say, when most if not all have already been said(See walls of text for clarification please~), before he starts sounding like a parrot. In which I

really

don't like to do.

What makes me certain that she is telling the truth? Well...maybe because she hasn't torn me to shreds like she could have if she was scum? I mean, honestly? I don't know where people are getting 'strong' Townie vibes from me I haven't played all that well in this one, and for that I apologize greatly.

As for my "gut's record', its pretty good, but by no means completely accurate. Even I'm not fool enough to think its all that great, but it tends to be right from a 75% to upwards of 90% of the time, especially if I don't listen to it . I always find that odd. -shrugs-

From my point of view at the beginning of this phase, it was either you, IP, or Oso that was the Mafiosi, and all the assorted pairings that go with those three names. I've had my opinions on who might be the scum, but several posts in have changed my PoV on those stands greatly.

I think Oso is who we need to lynch today. Enough said.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

Also...is it just me? Or do I smell Fitz trying to make the votes go his way on the case that maybe Oso is the RB??

Or am I reading into things to much??

[InflatablePie]

It's possible. And, it makes sense.

I guess we'll have to wait for Nik before we find out, though.

[Nikanor]

Sorry, I'm here.

I don't see how fitz and Oso can be scum together. They've been voting together for practically the entire game. If they are scum together, I'm going to be seriously weirded out by the cross-buddying they've been doing all game.
Another thing that would really freak me out would be if Oso and MS are both town, because that would mean that Gwyn was lynched by a wagon full of townies.

This day looks like its conclusion has already been determined anyway, so I have no reason to draw out this day any longer, even though I feel kind of dickish dropping out of nowhere after being prodded to drop a hammer.
OH WELL. HERE GOES NOTHING.

Vote: Oso.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

*crosses fingers*

[Oso]

I'd have to get out the sheet I have buried somewhere to get the exact game count, but that finally breaks my streak. Over 40 (43 if I'm remembering right) games played at various places on the interwebz, and this is the first time I have ever been lynched.

[Nikanor]

Ohhh, that sounds like a scum flip!
*Gets all giddy*

[Oso]

The smiley is for what I have been told on other sites "You can't call yourself a real mafia player until...(whole list of conditions)," and then ".....until you have been lynched at least once and you have won as an SK." This checks the "having been lynched" off. Now all I have left is winning as an SK. Probably take a while as in all those games only was SK once. I got killed by a newbie playing playing a Vig. He claimed, "someone who found scum one day one has to have had inside information." Apparently, I was too townie

But I am one step closer to being a true mafia player according to that list.

[Nikanor]

Nooooooooo.
So you're town?

[Oso]

Ain't saying one way or another. I'm dead remember? As a ghost I lost all memory of this game until it's over.

It's in yabbaguy's hands now.

[Nikanor]

Damn you ghosts. You always make noise when I'm trying to sleep, but when I actually want you to say something you're silent! So unreliable.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

^lmao xD