Newbie 958 ~Game over!

[Shadow Dancer]

I did not really breadcrumb, it's something I normally don't do any way. But look at this post, specifically about the last but one paragraph where I kindof break up DTM's case against LC and basically say it's all meaningless.

[Shadow Dancer]

I think chances for that are 25% (and as an RB he would likely not have counterclaimed).

Errrr, this looks like a slip. If you were really a Cop, you'd know that the chances for a Roleblocker would actually be 50%.

50& that there's one and 50% that brian is it --> 50%²= 25%, simple, eh? And where would be the slip, it's a semi-open setup, every one has the same chance to calculate that. In fact scum of course knows if there's a roleblocker and who it is.

[Incognito]

Ah, that's your math. Either way, I'm still leaning towards thinking you're scum. That one post that you pointed me to did sort of break down DTM's case against LC, but you still never really leaned any direction on him (town or scum). In fact, in that post, you pretty clearly called

brianj

of all people town, which is more what I would expect you to say about LC if you really did investigate him as innocent. It just doesn't make sense. When you compare all that to brianj's actions Today where he's consistently attacked you and asked for people's opinions of you, it seems like a pretty clear choice between who's likely the real Cop and who isn't.

Anywho, since deadline's right there and this really seems like a no-brainer, I'm gonna go with this for the hammer -

vote: Shadow Dancer

If he does manage to flip Cop and I'm not around for Tomorrow, you guys should know who to go after.

[Zachrulez]

Brianj/incog scumteam

You heard it here first.

[Incognito]

I don't at all see how you could believe SD's claim, Zach. Have you read all of the interactions that happened during Day 2?

[Coach Travis]

At least now if SD is in fact as he claims, we have a guaranteed scum lynch day 3, so I'd say our odds are looking good right now:No matter what happens, we catch scum today or tomorrow.

[Zachrulez]

Shadow Dancer

Only thing that bothers me is his weak claim. I'd have expected a cop or doc claim from mafia to provoce a premature counter claim from town... But mafia doesn't go by a book "things mafia should always do in this and that situation"... Scum hunting would be way too easy then...

...Okay. Seriously, I do not like the risky game you justed played. In fact, I am still not convinced of your claim yet since this is multiple setup, something which implications that everyone should recognize seriously. Few questions for now:

1) Why do you specifically consider my type of play "anti-town"?

2) Even if we trust you, what other viable alternative lynch target are there? Note that though I agree Zachrulez vote change was kind of half-heartedly supported, that single behaviour is not enough to warrant him a lynch over the rest.

That does not at all look like the words of a cop with a guilty on Shadow Dancer.

[Zachrulez]

Anyway, I should probably shut up until the flip is posted lest I risk looking really stupid if Shadow Dancer actually does flip scum.

[brianj]

Because I tried to get one more investigation in before revealing myself. Either way, it's needless debate now since the lynch has occurred. I already submitted in my action, so I'll really be leaving for today.

[Equinox]

...

I woke up this morning to a cop claim. I didn't want to deal with it, so I went off on my merry way and left it until afternoon. Well, now it is afternoon... I skim back a few pages, and joy of joys, we have a cop counterclaim

and

a counter-investigation.

Unvote

For the record, I'm going to lynch one of the cops because one of them is a lying scumbag, but I'd rather get the chance to read back and process everything before I make a firm decision here. I'll be back in a few hours.

[Equinox]

Aw, crap. Apparently, I failed to see that Incognito already hammered. Well, that saves me the trouble of choosing which one, not to mention the trouble of writing up the pre-NK twilight walls that I tend to do.

I'll read in a bit once I settle down and stuff. If I don't beat Nikanor to the punch, oh, well, see you in Day 3, if I don't die first as a confirmed townie (regardless of how Shadow Dancer flips).

[Shadow Dancer]

Hmmm... Damn! [urls=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZUPCB9533Y/url]How could this possibly happen[/url]. Well, I considered the options and concluded that it doesn't matter much how you decided. Good luck town.

[Shadow Dancer]

Hmmm... Damn! How could this possibly happen. Well, I considered the options and concluded that it doesn't matter much how you decided. Good luck town.

[Equinox]

Commenting on the brianj and Shadow Dancer claims would be rather pointless, so I'll refrain from that. Really, though, no matter what happens, things look good for Day 3.

Twelve

posts in a row? Seriously. I want to hammer you

just for that

.

Serial posting is not a scum tell. Why would you feel tempted to hammer for something like this?

Problem is, if I do trust him, my scum read is gone. For now, I need to think about this, as I don't want us to lose our cop, but I;m really not sure who else to vote, or if there's even enough time to change things.

Focus on your null reads. Now that we have a hammer, though, this point is moot, but next time, if you're out of scum reads, start pressuring your null reads and get a read from their reaction. Be proactive in getting reads.

[Nobody Special]

Twelve

posts in a row? Seriously. I want to hammer you

just for that

.

Serial posting is not a scum tell. Why would you feel tempted to hammer for something like this?

Nowhere did I say it was a scumtell. It just really,

really

bothers me.

[Nikanor]

Day Two Final Vote Count

Shadow Dancer (4)

- brianj, Equinox, Coach Travis, Incognito

brianj (2)

- Zachrulez, Shadow Dancer

Not Voting (1)

- Nobody Special

With seven players alive, four votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Tuesday June 29 at 19:51 UTC.

----------

You all decide to hang the wolf in the moon, Shadow Dancer.

Did I say wolf in the moon? More like wolf in the sheep's clothing! Har har har.

Shadow Dancer

-

Mafia Goon

-

Lynched day two.

It is now night two. Deadline falls on Thursday July 1 at 04:41 UTC.

[Nikanor]

And so after the lynch of Shadow Dancer, you all have a nice long nap.
While you're napping, someone kills someone else. Who is it?

Why, it's none other than brianj, the cop! You could tell he was a cop from the star badge thing with weird Asian characters on it that he was always wearing around.

brianj

-

Town Cop

-

Killed night three.

----------

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (5)

- Zachrulez, Coach Travis, Equinox, Nobody Special, Incognito

With five players alive, three votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Thursday July 22 at 07:07 UTC.

[Equinox]

I have to read through Shadow Dancer's posts again, but right now I think it's unlikely that either Incognito or Zachrulez is the partner based on the really hard distancing Shadow Dancer did in Day 2. That kind of distancing could have led to a lynch, which isn't what the distancing is about.

By process of elimination, I'm going to focus on Coach Travis and Nobody Special. Coach Travis has a case against him already; Nobody Special's slot is harder to read because of Leech's and smashbro_of_the_SSS's relative inactivity.

That said, I'm going out for the day, so I won't be able to address anything until tomorrow.

[Coach Travis]

I don't see how I could be suspected as SD's partner. Sure, I did think of him as town most of the day, but once I got a scum read on him I put a vote on him when there was only one other, helped get him to L-1, and only backed out later to give myself time to think, then I ended up voting him again anyway. I just don't think a scum would be that willing to sacrifice their partner.

Also, by process of elimination(I have a town read on Equinox, Incog's unvoting of me to help lynch SD seems definitely townish, and I haven't suspected Zachrulez's slot in a long time) I feel my best course of action is to

Vote:Nobody Special

, as I've never had a read on him, and everyone else currently seems townish.

[Incognito]

All right.

So first things first: with the death of brianj, I think it's probably safe to say that we're dealing with the following set-up:

*2 Mafia Goons, 1 Town Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies

So the last mafiate is a Mafia Goon and apparently we don't have a Doctor here.

My initial impressions coming into Today are as follows:

- I'm thinking that Coach Travis is town. I just can't see any reason why Shadow Dancer-scum would place a Coach Travis hypothetical buddy at L-1 at the time that SD did. The vote count at that time was pretty deadlocked, and there were certainly viable alternative wagons that SD could have voted for instead of his own buddy's wagon that had only two votes on it (and, realistically, my vote on that wagon was the only serious one at that time anyway - smashbro's vote seemed half-hearted to me). So yeah.

- Zachrulez's stance Yesterday before the SD flip completely blew my mind and left a really bad taste in my mouth, but I think he's safe because of the interactions that SD had with remouk (Zach's predecessor) all game. I just can't at all see two newbie scum buddies going at each others' throats the way SD and remouk did here, so I think it's safe to say that they were on opposite sides. Zachrulez is probably town too.

That leaves me with Equinox and Nobody Special as the most likely scum candidates. I'll be reading through their predecessors' interactions with the known scum and their own interactions with the known scum to try and figure out which of the two is the most likely buddy. I should have a full case by tomorrow.

[Equinox]

I'm thinking that Coach Travis is town. I just can't see any reason why Shadow Dancer-scum would place a Coach Travis hypothetical buddy at L-1 at the time that SD did.

Oh, I missed this. Considering that the case against Coach Travis was fairly viable, I'm going to go with this, based again on process of elimination.

Vote: Nobody Special

This is L-1. Nobody hammer until we've heard from Nobody Special and Zachrulez!

Coach Travis's "town cred defense" makes me go ._. because I generally hate those kinds of defenses, but... I'll just run with it. He's actually posting stances now, which looks a whole lot better than what I saw in Day 1 and early Day 2.

From a quick skim, Zachrulez's defense of Shadow Dancer's cop claim is kind of odd. I'll have to read through those again, but (WIFOM ALERT) I doubt he'd do that sort of thing as scum, seeing as he knows I lynched someone for doing that in a game he modded. >_>

[Nikanor]

Vote Count 3.1

Nobody Special (2)

- Coach Travis, Equinox

Not Voting (3)

- Zachrulez, Nobody Special, Incognito

With five players alive, three votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Thursday July 22 at 07:07 UTC.

[Nobody Special]

Holiday weekend, and all that. V/LA in my sig.

I should be all caught up by Monday afternoonish (if not sooner).

[Nikanor]

Happy Canada Day!

[Zachrulez]

Wife's family is visiting, so it's likely I won't be able to get around to this until Monday.