Mini 961: Insane Asylum II: GAME OVER :O!

[magnus_orion]

I'll explain why after another 2 hr meeting.

Meanwhile... 4 hours later....

[SocioPath]

I've been in 2 hour long meetings for the past few days

IN MEETINGS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS?
THOSE ARE REALLY LONG 2 HOUR MEETINGS.

[Haylen]

I'll explain why after another 2 hr meeting.

Meanwhile... 4 hours later....

I'm sorry, are you my keeper now? I never said I'd post directly directly after my meeting. FYI, I had an arrangement with Jordan, Battle Mage, Random Lunatic and someone called Richard.

Vote StrangerCoug

I believe I have stated my reasons for voting him are far greater than my reasons for believing SC isn't town and I'm going to state those reasons tomorrow because I need to write out 3 essays appealing against my exam boards decision.
Leaving SC alive will do more damage to the town than having him dead. Lynch him and we will be a scum down.

[StrangerCoug]

Vote StrangerCoug

I believe I have stated my reasons for voting him are far greater than my reasons for believing SC isn't town and I'm going to state those reasons tomorrow because I need to write out 3 essays appealing against my exam boards decision.
Leaving SC alive will do more damage to the town than having him dead. Lynch him and we will be a scum down.

So we're going to make me into a utility lynch, plausibly because I've been so stupid throughout the game that I might as well have forgotten that I should stop vigging once we get to LYLO. (Note the word "plausibly"—this is more of an attempt to figure out your motive than to restate your post.) You need to understand the risks of utility lynches, Haylen. Not all possible permutations will keep us in the running.

[magnus_orion]

I'll explain why after another 2 hr meeting.

Meanwhile... 4 hours later....

I'm sorry, are you my keeper now? I never said I'd post directly directly after my meeting. FYI, I had an arrangement with Jordan, Battle Mage, Random Lunatic and someone called Richard.

Vote StrangerCoug

I believe I have stated my reasons for voting him are far greater than my reasons for believing SC isn't town and I'm going to state those reasons tomorrow because I need to write out 3 essays appealing against my exam boards decision.
Leaving SC alive will do more damage to the town than having him dead. Lynch him and we will be a scum down.

Apparently, yes. At least in relation to this game, and the immediate extensions of it, I don't mind keeping tabs on you.
And next time, use a word less implicative and more explicit than "after", would you please?
You see, the way it was phrased, implied that the only thing that was preventing you was this meeting, and once it was through, you would resume placing your full resources toward this game.

I'm starting to believe you'd be a better lynch than Dramonic, your last post wasn't thought out in the slightest. Nor did it contain anything (setting aside the explanation for your lack of posting, which frankly, I don't regard as content). Why do I get the feeling that you're stalling for time? Maybe its just my paranoid imagination?
While SC hasn't been the shining example of pro-townness, we have yet to see legitimate convincing arguments for the existence of an serial killer in this game, and certain prior attempts at elimination through lynch by a certain mafia-affiliated individual, leaves believing him mafia a suspect position. I'd like clarification on your position.

Although you're having difficulties at home, we must assume you are at least skimming the thread, seeing as how your responses have been relevant to, at the very least, requests for you to post. But I cannot overlook your complete ignoring of commenting on my proposed course of action, and the fact that your claimed case against me is nowhere to be found.

Now, I don't wish to hound you, about these things all the time, however, I keep getting the impression from you, that its necessary that I do so.

[Corvuus]

official vote count would be nice

I believe it is:
StrangerCoug (2): Haylen, Dramonic
Haylen (2): SocioPath, magnus_orion
Dramonic (2): StrangerCoug, Tarhalindur

SC: just wait for haylen/dram to post their case. Every single time you post, my mind just screams to lynch you. Try cleaning up your grammar and word choice (not that I am that great about it either). Your posts sounds like you have been vigging all game but you'll stop once we get to LYLO.

I'm not voting until haylen's posted her case and Dram has posted his response/thoughts as well.

Corvuus

[UncertainKitten]

The Thiry-Seventh "<Dun-Dun>" Vote Count

"<So yeah.>"

Mod Note: Hai hai, was just doing it now Corv. I'm pretty much out of crazy shit. I'll spring the paraphilias on you probably and edit them in.

1. magnus_orion (0)
2. StrangerCoug (2): Dramonic, Haylen,
3. SocioPath (0)
4. Corvuus (0)
7. Tarhalindur (0)
9. Haylen (2): SocioPath, magnus_orion
11. Dramonic (2): StrangerCoug, Tarhalindur

Not Voting (1): Corvuus

Prod Clock (New): Off
Players still needing to respond to prod: No One

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is in 4 days at 8:00 PM EST, Saturday, July 10th, 2010

[StrangerCoug]

SC: just wait for haylen/dram to post their case. Every single time you post, my mind just screams to lynch you. Try cleaning up your grammar and word choice (not that I am that great about it either). Your posts sounds like you have been vigging all game but you'll stop once we get to LYLO.

You can do some of the same by keeping vigging and SK'ing distinct, which doesn't look like what you're doing by making yourself look like you're willing to lynch someone you think is a vigilante.

Also, not a tell, but your telling me to clean up my grammar is a bit ironic here. My "posts sounds like"?

[magnus_orion]

I hate to say this, but I agree with Corvuus on your grammar and word choice. Only my realization that I must interpret what you meant to say, instead of what you've actually said, and would've said, depending on the circumstances, has prevented me from going after you, you see.
That and scum would never imply some of the things you've implied. It'd be far too risky.
And there's no wifom involved when I say that.
I don't wish to be pejorative, but I think you should really make sure what you say matches what you actually mean.

[Corvuus]

I don't want to get into this with you SC.
Your post is most likely supposed to be:
"I am a utility lynch. I'm a utility lynch because people think I am so stupid throughout this game (stupidity equivalent to someone who doesn't stop vigging once in lylo) that I must be scum".
To me on a first read, your post doesn't sound like this at all and the fact that you make up that example and it isn't from haylen/dram just makes it worse. It sounds like you have been killing this whole time.
--------
I don't think I have at any point mixed up SK and vig. I say you are SK. You say you are vig. I made a comment on how your response sounds like you are "vigging this whole time" which of course shouldn't be true via your own claims (no charges, no kills) and if it was true (you are killing) and you are lying, then you would more likely be a SK and not a vig (anti-town). So my annoyance with your statement/grammar/implications is based on the fact that it sounds like 'an incredibly scummy SK pretending to be vig' thing to say.

Ugh. The more I read your posts the more annoyed I am. What you state feels factually false to me or at least not in terms of comparison of stupidity. Your example is a vig in lylo. Not 'pre-lylo" but IN lylo. So let's say 5 players, 2 scum. or 3 players 1 scum. In 3 players 1 scum, this position doesn't make sense to me. If you lynch mafia, no opportunity to fail vig. If you lynch town, vig and mafia kill each other so why wouldn't you vig? So obviously no vig fail here. If 5 players: lynch town would be auto-loss UNLESS you vig mafia (well, also need a doc protect but still, vigging is not fail in this case since town losses if you dont vig at all). The only case of vig fail/stupidity is in 5 player lylo, you lynch mafia, mafia and vig both kill separate town targets resulting in 2 players (1 mafia, 1 other) and town loss (unless vig and mafia are the ones left, then they kill each other). If mafia/vig target the same person, you still get 3 player lylo. In addition, if the vig knows who the mafia is (or at least trusts their judgement more than remaining town) then it could be considered incredibly smart and intelligent for a vig to attempt to vig mafia in lylo based on the game. To vig randomly in lylo is fail but I don't see your "stupidity" comparison.

..... but whatever.

This is all 'small potato' stuff. It only benefits Dram/Haylen if we fight this out right now SC. So just stop and wait.

I want to hear from Dram and Haylen with a real case/logic etc. that isn't influenced by anything we say just "now".

Corvuus

[StrangerCoug]

Your post is most likely supposed to be:
"I am a utility lynch. I'm a utility lynch because people think I am so stupid throughout this game (stupidity equivalent to someone who doesn't stop vigging once in lylo) that I must be scum".
To me on a first read, your post doesn't sound like this at all and the fact that you make up that example and it isn't from haylen/dram just makes it worse. It sounds like you have been killing this whole time.

Close enough. [/being an annoying nitpick]

[Tarhalindur]

A few quick thoughts:
- Unless UK has significantly diverged from normal WWTD (What Would Tarhalindur Do?), whoever killed Iecerint is ALSO the same player who killed Yos2. As such, if StrangerCoug is an SK who killed Iecerint, then the Mafia's N1 kill failed... which I consider unlikely. If there is a superkill floating around, it is probably Mafia (and probably also has to be limited shot, which doesn't square too well with what Haylen claimed). If it ISN'T a Mafia superkill, then either Haylen is scum or the Mafia KNOWS that StrangerCoug is SK... maybe we should lynch StrangerCoug, just to cut through the Gordian Knot.
- There is at least one and probably two Mafiosos on the "lynch SC" brigade. Haylen and dram are the obvious suspects, but I'm still rather uneasy about Corvuus (hell, I've used Mafia Cop before and UK knows it - it's also easy to fake).
- I still find it difficult to believe that Mafia has no means of affecting sanity. That's a point against Socio... or maybe Haylen is actually a third, Mafia psychologist? Honestly, that would explain a lot...
- At least one of {Haylen, m_o, Corvuus} is scum simply because I don't see how the setup is balanced with all three roles being as claimed and town. Magnus seems to fit the best given that DGB was Mafia Doctor.
- There is one scenario I can think of where both dram and Haylen can be town. That scenario requires that Iecerint still be in the game, however.
- Corvuus: Investigate any player you are certain is town tonight (if you don't have a default, you should probably pick me, since I'm probably dead tomorrow morning). You NEED to know your sanity.
- I'm STILL not sure whether the possibility of SCSK is worth lynching him - not doing so risks Kingmaker tomorrow, but I don't like the 5-player LyLo I see coming if we do.

[magnus_orion]

We need to decide on a course of action, deadline is in 3 days. I'm opposed to lynching anyone who isn't dramonic or haylen.
If Haylen doesn't agree to the plan, I suggest we should lynch Haylen, because I'm not comfortable with the brazen attempt at merely trying to appear as though she's participating at all.
If Haylen does agree, I suggest we lynch Dramonic, although I'm still fine with lynching Haylen.

Since we're running out of time, and I'm convinced I won't get an answer before then from Dramonic-scum,
SC isn't an SK:
If SC was an SK, there would be absolutely no reason why he would change his claim, as doing so draws suspicion on him. On D2 he would've claimed he didn't want to kill anyone, and on D3 he has been stopped by Haylen's roleblock, and so forth, doc protects, etc.
And there's a balance argument:
Hypothetically, if SC was an SK, and I used my ability night 1,
Tar could've killed,
Mafia could've killed (if sociopath reversed the kill)
Haylen could've killed
and DGB could've killed
assuming them all sane
11 - 4 = 7, and with 3 mafia and an sk, that guarantees a town loss D2. Since town loss D2 is something generally avoided when balancing games, I don't think SC is an SK.

[magnus_orion]

Actually, there's more:
If we suppose Tar's supposition that Glork could reverse all protections is true, then it means that I could've killed night 1 as well. Therefore there could have been 5 kills night 1
Since that's the case, assuming town could not lose night 1, not only is SC not an SK, but one of Tar and Haylen must be lying about their role. Since I believe tar, Haylen must be the liar.
Therefore, Haylen is scum.

let's lynch Haylen or Dramonic please.

[SocioPath]

If SC was an SK, there would be absolutely no reason why he would change his claim, as doing so draws suspicion on him.

It would also draw out this line of reasoning, which I could see an SK causing such.

11 - 4 = 7, and with 3 mafia and an sk, that guarantees a town loss D2. Since town loss D2 is something generally avoided when balancing games, I don't think SC is an SK.

With an SK though, I wouldn't automatically assume 3 mafia.

And with the "no kills unless killed" clause, I would think that would be fit in well with an SK in this game.
With as many potential kills flying around, being an SK would be suicide.
NK immune SKs aren't uncommon.
In this game an NK immune SK with a kill every night, with as potential kills as there are, would be rather unbalanced.
To make both work...you would use the role as claimed in thread.
I find it a lot more viable for a third party in this game to be unNKable than either town or mafia.

Looking at IA1, there wasn't any 3rd parties there...
but a UK game without a 3rd party by today's standards doesn't sit right either.

That is my thought process on the whole SC situation.

Actually, out of all the completed games I've run on this site, only Poof! Mafia had a third party. Umineko had two groups of two mafia, TTGL Mafia had a single three person mafia, Poof! had three and a special SK, and IA I had a three person mafia. OFFSITE, however, I have run another game with a third party, and then one with a three person mafia. Just figured I'd put that out there .

[Haylen]

I don't understand what I'm meant to be agreeing with? that's the problem!

[magnus_orion]

How about this.
We lynch dramonic. I use my ability tonight. SP doesn't do anything, Haylen targets herself, and Tar targets SP. That leaves Coorvus, Tar, Me, and SC.
I think Coorvus is town, I know Tar is town, I know I'm town. Because of those reads, I don't believe there is a result under this where two mafia make it to tomorrow, or mafia equal or outnumber the town tomorrow. If haylen doesn't target herself, we should lynch her. If both haylen and SP live, we lynch SP.

Scum will try to kill me or tar because of my using my ability.
If we haven't won by then, it will be a 3-way lylo between myself or tar, corvuus, and SC.
And then we'll probably lynch SC.

Are there any problems with this? I sort of just ran it off the top of my head, so I'm not positive it totally checks out.

[magnus_orion]

@SP: how many games have you been an SK?
@SC: how many games have you been an SK?

[StrangerCoug]

@SC: how many games have you been an SK?

Two, lynched on the last and first day in that order.

[dramonic]

=_=

We're headed fooooooooooor a mislynch!
Vote SC, it's the safest choice!

[StrangerCoug]

We're headed fooooooooooor a mislynch!
Vote SC, it's the safest choice!

You can stop whining and complaining and make a decent case on somebody. I don't think it's correct to say we cannot be held accountable if we lynch you and you flip town, but you're digging your own grave right now.

[dramonic]

I say even under the precept I am scum yours would be a better lynch for town <<

[StrangerCoug]

We don't need excuses; we need you and Haylen to make an active contribution.

[magnus_orion]

I say even under the precept I am scum yours would be a better lynch for town <<

I know, you've demonstrated such all day. The problem is, you haven't demonstrated why.

[dramonic]

because I am sure he's a SK, because his claim makes no sense for a town role and he keeps going "oh, I forgot that detail" every other day