Mini 988 - Small Town Mafia GAME OVER


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Post Post #625 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:10 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Concerned wrote:I don't know what you mean by kill flavour but the flavour around my role was virtually minuscule. "You are the vigilante", "You used to enjoy life until..." etc etc.

I'm not a one shot vig, nor am I some sort of even night vigilante, I get a night kill every night. Period.

I still think DP is scum, nothing he has said has changed my mind.
I'd still like to here from millar and Exilon though, and I don't want to see DP hammered just yet.
So your role doesn't really say anything about how you kill?

I was kinda hoping to shed light on the flavor of both kills. (Which might still apply anyway as the mod could establish flavor without necessarily making you aware of your own flavor.)

It is worth noting that both kills where chopped up AND shot. Getting shot doesn't really mesh with being chopped up, so the evidence would seem to back up Concerned's claim that he's a vig anyway, and it's likely that the "chopping up" is the scum's method of kill. (My presumptions in this matter go to the fact that Vigilantes generally have a gun and kill by that method.)

I'm pretty willing to hammer Parker at this point to be honest. Him suggesting a Bus Driver as an explanation to the kills and then claiming vanilla doesn't seem to Jive at all. (Not to mention the need to have the kills explained in the first place.)
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Post Post #626 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:13 am

Post by Exilon »

Concerned is looking scummier and scummier. I'll have a bigger post by night (Sorry for the delay, really, got distracted by Persona 4). There's one or two theories I'd like to discuss. They are about the claim (obv) and hypo-scum Concerned. Vig claim can = SK.
gGve it some thought before I bring it out the artillery.

Also, an alternate bandwagon should be built on Millar.
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Post Post #627 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:15 am

Post by Exilon »

I think Concerned's reaction to a Busdriver suggestion is much more interesting than the busdriver suggestion itself. In fact, I don't really find a problem with suggesting stuff or Nightkill analysis ideas, if it can help catch scum.

True, doesn't help much, but to me it looks more like curiosity than trying to fish for PR's.
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Post Post #628 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:18 am

Post by DavidParker »

Here's some quick maths for you:

Assuming no medic: 1/99 chance that mafia/vidge kills overlapped both nights. That is putting aside factors such as pro-town and scummy players. If you factored in the scummiest players dying both night 1 and night 2, the chance of kills overlapping is MUCH lower.

Similar odds for a medic choosing the correct player to protect on both night 1 or night 2. (or for a combination of medic saves and kill overlaps)

No one is going to hammer me as much as I know you'd like it, Concerned.

Anyways, I suggest we lynch the next scummiest player, in my eyes this is SSBF or millar. Exilon is possible scum, but I don't feel there's a strong enough case on him.

Then, tonight, our "vidge" can kill off his sure scum, me. As said, I claimed VT. I think you'll only be seeing one night kill again tonight though...
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Post Post #629 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:18 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Exilon wrote:Concerned is looking scummier and scummier. I'll have a bigger post by night (Sorry for the delay, really, got distracted by Persona 4). There's one or two theories I'd like to discuss. They are about the claim (obv) and hypo-scum Concerned. Vig claim can = SK.
gGve it some thought before I bring it out the artillery.

Also, an alternate bandwagon should be built on Millar.
ORLY?
Exilon wrote:I think Concerned's reaction to a Busdriver suggestion is much more interesting than the busdriver suggestion itself. In fact, I don't really find a problem with suggesting stuff or Nightkill analysis ideas, if it can help catch scum.

True, doesn't help much, but to me it looks more like curiosity than trying to fish for PR's.
Why?
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Post Post #630 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:21 am

Post by DavidParker »

Well, i explained it as being purely curiousity! Duh. why would i lie!?!?!?!?!!!!!!!!!!!!

i don't like how you so quickly bought his vig claim... to be honest, that was the last thing i expected from his position. It has just made him look scummier. Why even claim? he wasn't at L-1... He claims, and says he killed BOTH people who were killed. It doesn't add up.

Also, do you honestly think that scum went for the two players agreed to be the scummiest in the game on their respective days (after the person gettin lynched) AND it happened to overlap kills with our vig??? That is just not something i'm willing to believe.
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Post Post #631 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:25 am

Post by Zachrulez »

DavidParker wrote:Well, i explained it as being purely curiousity! Duh. why would i lie!?!?!?!?!!!!!!!!!!!!

i don't like how you so quickly bought his vig claim... to be honest, that was the last thing i expected from his position. It has just made him look scummier. Why even claim? he wasn't at L-1... He claims, and says he killed BOTH people who were killed. It doesn't add up.

Also, do you honestly think that scum went for the two players agreed to be the scummiest in the game on their respective days (after the person gettin lynched) AND it happened to overlap kills with our vig??? That is just not something i'm willing to believe.
WHAT IS THE SCUM MOTIVATION TO FAKECLAIM PRIOR TO LYNCH THREAT PRESSURE? (Lynch -1)

HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE SEEMINGLY TWO DIFFERENT FLAVORS FOR THE KILL? (HOW DOES BEING CHOPPED UP AND SHOT CORRESPOND TO 1 KILL?)

End caps.

As for vig/scum crosskills, I've seen it happen before.
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Post Post #632 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:28 am

Post by Zachrulez »

To be blunt, we're not lynching the claimed vig today. To even suggest that we should lynch the claimed vig today is pretty scummy in itself.
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Post Post #633 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:30 am

Post by DavidParker »

umm i didn't suggest it? I suggested we should lynch one of SSBF/millar although i'm sure there will be a camp still wanting to lynch me.. I just said i didnt believe his claim yet. Until i see two night kills.
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Post Post #634 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:33 am

Post by Zachrulez »

If you don't think we should do it, then why are you trying to dirty me up for buying the claim? That makes NO SENSE.
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Post Post #635 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:36 am

Post by DavidParker »

I actually didn't get what you meant by kill flavor until now. I just reread death scenes and agree that it is likely the kills overlapped based on both involved an axe and a gun. However, an axe seems to correspond more to a serial killer than anything. While gun = mafia. With that said, this is just speculation, and I am going to repeat that i don't think we should be killing off the claimed vig.

Anyways, thanks for pointing that out, i stand corrected (i think).

?? I'm trying to suggest you are too quick to believe a claim that was done at an illogical and unnecessary time. The claim doesn't seem to make sense from a scum or town pov.
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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:37 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Illogical and unnecessary claims happen more often than you'd think. I've seen many in my time.
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:39 am

Post by Zachrulez »

More importantly, IF Concerned is a vig, we have a town controlled kill and we'd be fools to lynch the role away.
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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:46 am

Post by DavidParker »

Yeah, as said, I think we are in agreement over him not being a good lynch target. (not to mention scum will now probably target him, if hes not scum, which could work in our favor if hes a SK)
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:48 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Well my post wasn't entirely a response to you. Exilon was noting that Concerned seemed scummier to him. (And I am finding him scummy as a result.)
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:27 am

Post by Exilon »

concerned wrote:In my mind I had cleared you for that quote
and
(
instead of but
) I've had second thoughts about that,
especially since it turns out oxide was town and he was the one who said the quote could be taken either way. At the time I thought it might be scum trying to mislead me but clearly it was an unbiased townie opinion.


When you take the fact that I had cleared you in my mind away, I definitely think you could be scum. There are 8 of us left I'm almost certain Zach, Cuet and Jason are town I know I'm town and I'm starting to leaning town for SSBF that only leaves three players: You, DP and the antonio slot, so quite frankly I'm willing to hop a wagon on any of those players, from my view it's a 66% chance of hitting scum.
So Oxide points out my reference from Butterfly was a null tell, which Concerned says it was misleading him (onto what, I have no idea), in case an Ox-scum existed. This on its own is already pretty bad logic, and seems like a bad attempt at faking suspicion. Then he uses Oxide's death as an excuse to stop thinking I'm obv town. this does not make sense - for starters, Oxide pointed it was a null tell (from Concerned's perspective), so it shouldn't be misleading him in any way, therefore making both "events" INDEPENDENT of each other. Oxide's opinion doesn't really need to influence Concerned, yet by the way he writes this quote, it's clear one of the main reasons for Concerned's stance was Oxide's own position.

The second part grows a little more. The 66% chance just seems like weird stuff spatted out of his mouth to emphasize a point which doesn't really need emphasis. Interesting enough, the three players Concerned mentions are scum are the towns "easiest targets", those to which the town is turning to the most. (also the lurker.). He doesn't really provide explanation on how SSBF is now "slowly" leaning town.
Concerned wrote:Cautious? I didn't want to hammer, I've never had any qualms about putting someone on L-1, because I like to get as much information as possible from each day.

Putting someone on L-1 hardly equates to a lynch, that said I also feel more confident about DP at this point than I did about Nacho or Butterfly, both of which I was never quite sure about.
Silly excuses, here. For a hammer to exist, obviously a L1 also NEEDS to exist. concerned, have you ever had trouble for hammmering someone? What are you afraid of? Isn't it common knowledge that, when you vote someone, it's for pressure or to express your desire for a lynch? Problem with L1 is that it is a very dangerous position for someone to be him, usually someone who wants to apply pressure does not L1 someone. Yet not only have you L1'd someone before, you admit to not being very sure on the other two lynches. "In case something goes wrong, you guys know I was never really sure".
Concerned wrote:
DavidParker is clearly obsessed with the night kill, I'm convinced he's scum just based on this. There is simply no reason for someone who wasn't involved in the kills to be so obsessed with them.


If I had to guess I'd say DP is scum, and we do have some sort of power role in play that is effecting the kills and that is causing him to freak out. It's either that or
DP is the PR who is causing the shenanigans and this is his weak attempt at hiding this fact (I hate to bring this up but it's the only other option I would accept).
The bolded part is pure genius. Not only it looks like concerned gets a litle concerned over geting DP lynched, he seems to be reaching at straws. Dubbing DP's interest in the NK's as "obsessive" and dubbing it as "definite scum" seems pretty off to me, considering the fact that DP brought it up because they weren't really being discussed, and because the line immedietly after he says "If I had to guess".

Wait, I was wrong, no. Actually the blue bolded is absolute genius.

Now, we know for a fact that Concerned is the Vig. Let's assume that for the moment. Notice what he says. Why would a vig, who knows he's the one behind the killings, suggest DP as
THE
possible PR that is causing the "sheningans" he's trying to hide? Also, when he claimed Vig, he said that the reason why he wanted to know why DP was "obsessed" was because he, Concerned, was the one making those kills. Let's compare this.
If I had to guess I'd say DP is scum, and we do have some sort of power role in play that is effecting the kills and that is causing him to freak out. It's either that or DP is the PR who is causing the shenanigans and this is his weak attempt at hiding this fact (I hate to bring this up but it's the only other option I would accept).
DP you really need to give me a pro-town reason I can accept for why you are so obsessed with the night kills.

The reason why this is a big issue for me is because I am the vigilante - and both of the night kills have been my doing.
This may seem like quite an unbelievable claim considering we've had one death per night but it's still the truth.
First things first:
1) Being the Vigilante does not mess up the mafia's kills. (redirects, whatever)

There's another PR or a cross-kill, AND if there was a cross-kill, then, according to Concerned's perspective, there would be no need for DP to freak out. "Cross-kill is not a possibility". Hence, according to Concerned, there's a PR who's messing up the kills other than himself. Which means,
the second quote does not make sense according to supposed Concerned's honest perspective. There is NO NEED for him to out himself, as his kills don't affect the mafia kills.


Yet he does out himself and he has two votes on him.

These are Concerned's most important posts, but in fact, almost all of his posts have either something off or rub me wrong, which is very bad.




Concerned's Theories at this point:

a) This one is quite easy. Occam's razor at work here. Assume this a 3-scum game and Concerned is with Butterfly and now Millar, which obviously isn't doing much, so he had to carry out the kill by himself. A safe kill would be in order, so scummy players would be good targets. This also sets a good ground for a fake claim.
b) Concerned is the SK. Pretty obvious, a vig fakeclaim when you're SK is pretty good; also look at his claim post and flavour-claim post. Read it like if he's the SK. No mention to SK possibility, "this is the first time playing as Vig", "
playing PRO-TOWN instead of pro-self
", and his flavour curiously ends with "You enjoyed life until...".




I have to think about what Zach said. I'm not sure if not-lynching the claimed vig is the way to go, but I'm up to be convinced.
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:31 am

Post by Exilon »

ALSO PEOPLE SERIOUSLY NEED TO GET GOOD CASES ON ME INSTEAD OF JUST SAYING " YEAH EXI COULD BE SCUM". (everyone can be scum, get it?)
If the best you can come up with is subjective stuff like "butterfly's" ambiguous tells (your own words) and that stuff with the mod from Day 1 or my "indecisiveness" which didn't really exist with butterfly, then you should try WAY harder.

WHERE IS JASON.
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:40 am

Post by Super Smash Bros. Fan »

I just realized that DavidParker's play as of Day 3 has been very inconsistent. For example, he voted for Cuetlachtli, unvoted, voted for me, unvoted, voted for me, and finally unvotes again. That's a grand total of five unvotes and votes combined. Whereas I have only done a grand total of four votes and unvotes.

@DavidParker: About your four scums scenario, that's extremely unlikely. That would probably give scums way too much power. Town would only be able to make one mislynch at the worst and then town wins. So yeah, a four-team scums is highly unlikely. Also, a No Lynch is generally a terrible idea, as we gain nothing out of it. This is not one of those scenario's where a No Lynch is apporpriate.
DavidParker wrote:This was after RVS had ended pretty much, he then unvotes 2 posts later. Seems like a blatant attempt for butterfly to distance himself from SSBF by voting for him (sure a very poor one, but it's been proven that butterfly was basically newbscum).
How was The Butterfly attempting to distance from me? I have seen absolutely no mention of me from his post before ISO: 6 and afterwards, I've barely been mentioned in any of The Butterfly's post.
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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:45 am

Post by Exilon »

yeah, DP's votes have been one hell of a crazy ride, but I don't really know a good reason for scum to do so except being afraid. His town reasons to do so seem a little stronger.
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:50 am

Post by Zachrulez »

My vote has moved around a little bit today, what does that say about me? Why haven't you attacked me for it?
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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 11:09 am

Post by Concerned »

Exilon wrote:So Oxide points out my reference from Butterfly was a null tell, which Concerned says it was misleading him (onto what, I have no idea), in case an Ox-scum existed. This on its own is already pretty bad logic, and seems like a bad attempt at faking suspicion. Then he uses Oxide's death as an excuse to stop thinking I'm obv town. this does not make sense - for starters, Oxide pointed it was a null tell (from Concerned's perspective), so it shouldn't be misleading him in any way, therefore making both "events" INDEPENDENT of each other. Oxide's opinion doesn't really need to influence Concerned, yet by the way he writes this quote, it's clear one of the main reasons for Concerned's stance was Oxide's own position.
Oxide said the butters quote could be taken either way, at the time I was weary of anything he said because I thought he was scum and hence not to be trusted. Now that he's confirmed town I can look at what he said objectively without fear of bias and I found that he was actually right.
Me wrote:DP is the PR who is causing the shenanigans and this is his weak attempt at hiding this fact (I hate to bring this up but it's the only other option I would accept).
Exilon wrote: The bolded part is pure genius. Not only it looks like concerned gets a litle concerned over geting DP lynched, he seems to be reaching at straws. Dubbing DP's interest in the NK's as "obsessive" and dubbing it as "definite scum" seems pretty off to me, considering the fact that DP brought it up because they weren't really being discussed, and because the line immedietly after he says "If I had to guess".

Wait, I was wrong, no. Actually the blue bolded is absolute genius.

Now, we know for a fact that Concerned is the Vig. Let's assume that for the moment. Notice what he says. Why would a vig, who knows he's the one behind the killings, suggest DP as THE possible PR that is causing the "sheningans" he's trying to hide? Also, when he claimed Vig, he said that the reason why he wanted to know why DP was "obsessed" was because he, Concerned, was the one making those kills. Let's compare this.
I was trying to get DP to fakeclaim responsibility, simple as that. By saying "the only way I will believe you aren't scum is if you are the PR." I was inviting scum-DP to claim responsibility because I would have had him, I then could have claimed and even if the town didn't believe me we would have had scum within two lynches guaranteed.

He didn't end up claiming but it was worth a try.

Your whole argument is based on misunderstanding what I was trying to do.
Exilon wrote:Read it like if he's the SK. No mention to SK possibility, "this is the first time playing as Vig", "playing PRO-TOWN instead of pro-self", and his flavour curiously ends with
"You enjoyed life until...".
Bolded part finishes with "until people started to die". If you are town as you say, then check your own town PM before you make assumptions...


If there is anything you said which you feel I haven't addressed tell me, but honestly your argument is just you interpreting my actions in a way that fits your theory. You can make anything fit if you want it to and that's what you're doing here, forcing a fit where there isn't any.

Ironically I'm starting you think you might be town though, confused town but town nonetheless. I just don't see the scum motivation to push a lynch on someone when their death is just going to make you look more suspicious.
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 11:10 am

Post by Concerned »

Exilon wrote:yeah, DP's votes have been one hell of a crazy ride, but I don't really know a good reason for scum to do so except being afraid. His town reasons to do so seem a little stronger.
Good reason - He's willing to accept any townie lynch that the town will sanction.
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 11:20 am

Post by Concerned »

Also if we have experienced two cross kills, which I find hard to believe because of the people who were killed, but nonetheless if that's what's happened then my case on DP kinda fizzles out...
It would be nice to have another night to confirm that if possible.
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 11:31 am

Post by jasonT1981 »

Im here, sorry been a busy week... Parents wedding annaversery then had a lot to do when they went away. Then had to write my RP for my efed site that took up a lot of today.... not caught up fully, and wont until tomorrow... sorry, its 11.30pm here and I am only getting to check in now,

I am afriad I am not buying the cross kills on both night scanario... I think the claim is a lie.

What were your reasons for the kills you made?

Also...Millar.. WTF? Lazy ass scum

unvote
vote: Millar
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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 11:32 am

Post by jasonT1981 »

Ok, to explain my Millar vote...

Antonio did NOTHING to help the town, and now in his place Millar is lurkign and does not want to scum hunt. Doing exactly the same as Antonio...

I would be more than happy with his lynch today.

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