Mini 961: Insane Asylum II: GAME OVER :O!


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Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:43 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

dramonic wrote:because I am sure he's a SK, because his claim makes no sense for a town role and he keeps going "oh, I forgot that detail" every other day
Oh come the hell on. DrippingGoofball posted a better case than that and it still got her lynched.
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Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Wed Jul 07, 2010 10:21 pm

Post by Corvuus »

I'm not that great at being concise, but here goes.
Magnus:
I don't really like that you are using your role as 'proof' that SC isn't a SK and arguing mod balance.

1. You have stated in the past that you thought sc is an SK. You later said you no longer believed that SC is an SK but that you had before. What changed if your role means he can't possible be SK to you?

2. You do realize that if I was to consider and argue mod balance; I consider a SC-SK + mafia-team more plausible than your global ability existing and town instant losing w/4+ deaths in day 1. This is why I said earlier that I didn't think your role was balanced and was reading into sanity/claims further.

I then found the "list" from the lynch with sanity listed for abilities. For all we know, Tar might be the only sane doc. All the other sanity variations are just "protect self, remove protection". Given that not all docs are sane and only sane docs could vig (vig glork, vig with reversal), I considered it possible for you to exist since most likely (if balanced setup) tar would vig, other docs would be useless/non-vig, mafia might fail their kill, etc.

I really don't like this.

3. I think we are on opposite sides regarding SC's play. You believe him when he says that his "stupidity"/"risky"/"drawing attention" doesn't make sense as scum. If you remove his 'role' (SK, vig, whatever) do you think it is possible for him to be scum? I could argue that his "stupidity/play, etc" doesn't make sense as town.

----

Regarding Dram-haylen:
I think at least one of them have to be scum at this point but I don't know if both makes sense. I was expecting something regarding global roleblock, superkill, or some kind of discussion, argument with it. Instead... it really does seem like 'lynch someone other than me, hey, there is SC-SK'.

Haylen: you said you had a case on magnus that got dropped by computer crash. Could we get that? You list Dram as scum (w/ MO), is there a case for that or just PoE?

Dram: yes, we know you want to lynch SC. Who is scum other than SC?

Tar:
1. I believe Glork reversed kill sanity and protection sanity (not investigation sanity). I also did not see where he claimed he had a 1-time global ability to reverse. Where is that from? I think I read through all of his posts twice but didn't see it in his posts. I will most likely investigate you to check my sanity but with 'reversability' global, psychologist, etc., i don't know if it is interpretable either way.
2. There are several superkill possibilities:

There is no superkill: Mafia killed ice. Haylen is mafia, global roleblock (lockdown is verified regarding night talk, mason talk) didn't affect scumteam. Lack of superkill doesn't mean anything regarding SC as vig or SK. There is still the issue of why Ice was the nightkill choice.

Mafia have superkill: it may specifically say that it works on NK immune/goes through protection, in which case, mafia knows that they can take care of SC-SK at any time they want. I really doubt it is unlimited if it belongs to mafia for balance reasons. If it is limited, why would mafia use it during global roleblock and on ice? Yes, it is important to get kills as mafia, but on Ice? If mafia have superkill, then they have no need to try to lynch SC-SK and could avoid him like the plague and try to lynch the people who do want to lynch him with "scum want to kill nk immune SK, so you guys must be scum". If you seriously believe mafia have superkill, do you seriously believe scum have to be voting SC-SK? In this interpretation, I think I could claim that 1-2 are scum who are not voting SC-SK... however it doesn't make sense for mafia to have the superkill to me... I just find it strange that you do.

SK has superkill: I consider this much more likely given Ice as the nightkill choice. SK wants to kill 'every night' ideally (in this case, he didn't submit a kill the first round on purpose, or mafia/SK targeted same person). When they kill, they don't want to pick the same target as scum. Ice is not a mafia kill choice on a roleblock night. I 100% believe you are town tar, but the fact that you 'lived' last night (as obvious target) is most likely due to global roleblock and scum attempted to kill you and SK killed ice. If I didnt get a "no result" as cop and you lived (plus no lockdown) I might suspect you simply because you are still alive but I do believe you are town, and that the lockdown (block all) did happen. The fact that it was Ice and not you who died leads me to believe SK exists and SK has superkill.
You also make the argument that ice's death and Yosarian (shot) are the same. SK could have a different kill flavor, or SK and mafia could have targeted the same person. I'm not 100% sure of my notes but DGB claimed something weird about kill flavor (was this due to your doc vig?) or DGB and SK both killed same person and DGB expected different flavor. Regardless, kill flavor comparison doesn't seem as solid as "why ice".

If SK has superkill, why wouldn't scum want to kill them? It could be SP psychologist (true claim) or MO ability (false or not full claim). The other possibility is haylen is lying and is a psychologist as well with medical admin as a fakeclaim. Ugh....

1 of haylen/Dram is likely scum. SC is SK. 1 of SP/MO is likely scum.

It is possible for haylen/Dram to be scum together (in which case, Dram is lying about his role and is psychologist who fakeclaim townie?) but I don't think I consider it that likely that they are scum together.


Corvuus
P.S. I did ask several times what people thought about superkill/roleblock since I believed SK-superkill, ice as SK night kill interpretation but I think only Tar mentioned it as well. Major scumpoints for Haylen/Dram for not mentioning it at all in your SC-SK cases, Haylen more so since you did lockdown and brought it up first yet... nothing now?
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Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Wed Jul 07, 2010 10:32 pm

Post by Corvuus »

edit by way of post:
If Haylen/Dram are scum together, one of them is lying about their role. If one of them is scum, then it depends on who their buddy is in regards to false claim/psychologist, etc.
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Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 12:15 am

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Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:42 am

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magnus_orion wrote:@SP: how many games have you been an SK?
Non-marathon games would be 2, as referenced earlier in this game:
SocioPath wrote:Lets start with Open Source because you just said you didn't even read that one.
In this game, that you so skillfully played by getting killed N1 because you are just oh-so-good at the game, where as I am just a lowly fish, these are some of the events in that game:
I made a massive case on one of the scum. Then NK'd him.
I made a massive case on the second of the scum. Then had him lynched.
Then NK'd the last scum, thereby winning as SK.
Just to be clear, the last day started with the following still alive in game:
2 Mafia, 1 Town, 1 SK.
But I guess that wasn't skill, it was just luck, all the way thru.
SocioPath wrote:Here is a game where I lost as an SK because I suck so badly:Dexter Mafia
Because I got lynched in LYLO because of a mod error where the cop confirmed a player that they were not supposed to get results on.
So that game was lost obviously because I am terrible, and because of a situation beyond my control, and I am a sad person because I can't take the responcibility for the loss as a result of my own poor playing.
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Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:54 am

Post by magnus_orion »

1. You have stated in the past that you thought sc is an SK. You later said you no longer believed that SC is an SK but that you had before. What changed if your role means he can't possible be SK to you?
Because I don't think instantly and it takes time for me to realize things. Plus its all the roles in conjunction that leads me to this conclusion

2. You do realize that if I was to consider and argue mod balance; I consider a SC-SK + mafia-team more plausible than your global ability existing and town instant losing w/4+ deaths in day 1. This is why I said earlier that I didn't think your role was balanced and was reading into sanity/claims further.

*shrug* I know I'm what I say I am. I can prove it tonight if we go through with my plan. My global ability does exist. I gather that it's got the same name as tar's, but tar never said the name of his ability in thread before I claimed.
Also, I'm the only one with a tracker ability.


I then found the "list" from the lynch with sanity listed for abilities. For all we know, Tar might be the only sane doc. All the other sanity variations are just "protect self, remove protection". Given that not all docs are sane and only sane docs could vig (vig glork, vig with reversal), I considered it possible for you to exist since most likely (if balanced setup) tar would vig, other docs would be useless/non-vig, mafia might fail their kill, etc.
Scum had a doc so they could kill the players who reversed kill sanity. That's my theory anyway.
3. I think we are on opposite sides regarding SC's play. You believe him when he says that his "stupidity"/"risky"/"drawing attention" doesn't make sense as scum. If you remove his 'role' (SK, vig, whatever) do you think it is possible for him to be scum? I could argue that his "stupidity/play, etc" doesn't make sense as town.
See, my issue is, that unless I can make it make sense as scum, I default to town, because a lot of players do things that don't make sense as town.

1 of SP/MO is likely scum.
I don't understand this.

Tar didn't die because he'd reverse the sanity of the scum kill and it wouldn't go through. I'd wager scum don't know their kill sanity and wouldn't want to risk it. I believe Haylen's ability only effects town.
There is still the issue of why Ice was the nightkill choice.
No issue. Iec died because he wasn't lynched yesterday and everyone was willing to accept him as town. Also because he didn't believe Haylen.

but I don't think I consider it that likely that they are scum together.
I don't see why not.
If Haylen/Dram are scum together, one of them is lying about their role.
At least Haylen is.

I really don't think it makes sense from an SK's point of view to screw up his fakeclaim on purpose, and then expect not to be lynched.
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Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 9:21 am

Post by Corvuus »

I have several events this weekend and deadline is at 5 pm (pst) on saturday. I will definitely vote by friday night/saturday morning since I won't be around for sat-midday-deadline so heads up on that.
----
magnus_orion wrote:
1. You have stated in the past that you thought sc is an SK. You later said you no longer believed that SC is an SK but that you had before. What changed if your role means he can't possible be SK to you?
Because I don't think instantly and it takes time for me to realize things. Plus its all the roles in conjunction that leads me to this conclusion
Based on the 'list' that I mentioned. Do you still believe that there could have been 4-5 deaths day 1?
2. You do realize that if I was to consider and argue mod balance; I consider a SC-SK + mafia-team more plausible than your global ability existing and town instant losing w/4+ deaths in day 1. This is why I said earlier that I didn't think your role was balanced and was reading into sanity/claims further.

*shrug* I know I'm what I say I am. I can prove it tonight if we go through with my plan. My global ability does exist. I gather that it's got the same name as tar's, but tar never said the name of his ability in thread before I claimed.
Also, I'm the only one with a tracker ability.


I want tar to comment on where Glork's global ability came from. I couldn't find it in Glork's posts. If Glork's global is true, (and trusting that townies don't lie) then your global is similar in terms of "flip protection sanity" aspect, doc vig, so it must be balanced in terms of all docs not being vigs/sane. I'll trust you more if someone can point Glork's global claim out to me.

As you said before, only you and Tar really need to agree for your plan. The only issue that you guys seem to have with your plan is who to lynch first and then vig. I'm in the lynch SC-SK, vig mafia corner while SP-Tar-MO are in the lynch mafia, vig mafia, if not win, lynch SC corner.

I will also note that if either SP/MO are scum, then the vig plan doesn't work simply because SP-scum would psychologist Tar and MO scum would simply be lying. There is haylen-scum possibility as well (either as doc to vig or psychologist?).
I then found the "list" from the lynch with sanity listed for abilities. For all we know, Tar might be the only sane doc. All the other sanity variations are just "protect self, remove protection". Given that not all docs are sane and only sane docs could vig (vig glork, vig with reversal), I considered it possible for you to exist since most likely (if balanced setup) tar would vig, other docs would be useless/non-vig, mafia might fail their kill, etc.
Scum had a doc so they could kill the players who reversed kill sanity. That's my theory anyway.


I do agree with the interpretation. Scum team (overall, DGB +) is most likely at least a doc and a inmate to get past sanity issues.
3. I think we are on opposite sides regarding SC's play. You believe him when he says that his "stupidity"/"risky"/"drawing attention" doesn't make sense as scum. If you remove his 'role' (SK, vig, whatever) do you think it is possible for him to be scum? I could argue that his "stupidity/play, etc" doesn't make sense as town.
See, my issue is, that unless I can make it make sense as scum, I default to town, because a lot of players do things that don't make sense as town.


In all my games with SC, he is always like this regardless of his role/alignment. So I'd consider it either a null or scum-tell... and based on this game, i'm currently thinking scum-tell.
1 of SP/MO is likely scum.
I don't understand this.

Tar didn't die because he'd reverse the sanity of the scum kill and it wouldn't go through. I'd wager scum don't know their kill sanity and wouldn't want to risk it. I believe Haylen's ability only effects town.


Umm... Tar doesn't have kill sanity reversal per his own claim. Additionally, there would be no way for scum to know about kill sanity reversal of players (until claims) since the only one who claimed "night kill immune" is SC (in a long drawn out way) and Glork Miller was ambiguous (he said he is miller... then said, wait, miller reversal but investigation is sane) which could be interpreted as protection reversal 'only' or night kill and protection reversal. I don't think anyone brought up the issue of "night kill immune due to sanity" until I replaced in, and even then, the 'list' for murderers' sanity affects wasn't talked about either. I don't see why scum would think that they couldn't kill Tar. naive/sane nets a kill. I also don't see why scum wouldn't try to kill Tar especially if you think Haylen-claimed doc is scum and could bypass NK-sanity reversal (which tar doesn't have).

I still don't understand your overall view. If haylen's ability only lockdowns town (no superkill, SC harmless vig/irrelevant), then is haylen scum or haylen town? If haylen is scum (which you propose) then why would they claim "global roleblock/lockdown" and then immediately draw attention to themselves by having scum team submit a kill. From your stated point of view "town can not make sense, but scum should make sense" it just simply doesn't make sense for haylen scum to do this yet you think that they did? Compare with your SC-SK interpretation?

If only one of Haylen/Dram is scum, then by PoE, one of SP/MO must be scum (plus SC is SK).
There is still the issue of why Ice was the nightkill choice.
No issue. Iec died because he wasn't lynched yesterday and everyone was willing to accept him as town. Also because he didn't believe Haylen.
Are you serious? Iece may be considered "town enough" but Tar is super-town. Owned the DGB-scum super-town. To pick Iece-town over Tar-town doesn't make sense, especially if we argue "scum should make sense". Tar scumhunt, doc sane, confirmed, ability, etc. versus Iece?
but I don't think I consider it that likely that they are scum together.
I don't see why not.
Haylen/Dram (if roles are true, alignment scum) is 2 doc scum plus a 'inmate' scum. Does this scum-alignment distribution (vs claimed town-alignments) make sense to you MO?
If Haylen/Dram are scum together, one of them is lying about their role.
At least Haylen is.
I really don't think it makes sense from an SK's point of view to screw up his fakeclaim on purpose, and then expect not to be lynched.[/quote]

------------

Tar: I forgot this. I have a guilty result on SC. Lynching him could yield info regarding my sanity so that I don't need to spend a night investigating you.

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Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 9:46 am

Post by magnus_orion »

Based on the 'list' that I mentioned. Do you still believe that there could have been 4-5 deaths day 1?
I've been aware of the list for a while now. I think most of the "insanity" comes from sanity switchers, and I think most of the players are initially sane.
Haylen/Dram (if roles are true, alignment scum) is 2 doc scum plus a 'inmate' scum. Does this scum-alignment distribution (vs claimed town-alignments) make sense to you MO?
Yes.
Putting 2 scum in the group helps counter the effectiveness of a potential 3 man mason team.

I will also note that if either SP/MO are scum, then the vig plan doesn't work simply because SP-scum would psychologist Tar and MO scum would simply be lying. There is haylen-scum possibility as well (either as doc to vig or psychologist?).
Yeah, I know, but I have no idea why you even think that's a possible scenario.


In all my games with SC, he is always like this regardless of his role/alignment. So I'd consider it either a null or scum-tell... and based on this game, i'm currently thinking scum-tell.
If he's always like this, then its always a null-tell.
Umm... Tar doesn't have kill sanity reversal per his own claim. Additionally, there would be no way for scum to know about kill sanity reversal of players (until claims) since the only one who claimed "night kill immune" is SC (in a long drawn out way) and Glork Miller was ambiguous (he said he is miller... then said, wait, miller reversal but investigation is sane) which could be interpreted as protection reversal 'only' or night kill and protection reversal. I don't think anyone brought up the issue of "night kill immune due to sanity" until I replaced in, and even then, the 'list' for murderers' sanity affects wasn't talked about either. I don't see why scum would think that they couldn't kill Tar. naive/sane nets a kill. I also don't see why scum wouldn't try to kill Tar especially if you think Haylen-claimed doc is scum and could bypass NK-sanity reversal (which tar doesn't have).
There were plenty of hints regarding killsanity reversal during the discussion of Coug's claim. Here's one.
glork wrote:Coug's "convince me that you're not just claimfishing or I will vig you" post is really what convinced me. In my experience (no, I can't cite specific examples of players/games, this was ages ago), when a player claims Vig and then starts flinging threats, he is protown. I think that Coug's threat to me was very genuine, so he really believes that he can Vig. Whether he can get through the sanity mechanics of this game and actually kill me is another matter entirely, but when he threatened me, he definitely believed himself capable of killing me.
Here's another
Glork wrote:Coug: Does your NK-Immunity state that all kills attempted on you fail, or does it bring kill sanity into the issue?
and another.
Glork wrote:I believe that Coug is protown. It sounds like he has roughly the same millerlike abilities that I do.


You're probably not Unnightkillable, and I'm really starting to think that us regular inmates are legit, while the doctors are the scums.



Vote stays on Elli.

It doesn't take a genius to figure it out.


I still don't understand your overall view. If haylen's ability only lockdowns town (no superkill, SC harmless vig/irrelevant), then is haylen scum or haylen town? If haylen is scum (which you propose) then why would they claim "global roleblock/lockdown" and then immediately draw attention to themselves by having scum team submit a kill. From your stated point of view "town can not make sense, but scum should make sense" it just simply doesn't make sense for haylen scum to do this yet you think that they did? Compare with your SC-SK interpretation?
Haylen is scum.
Because she could claim a superkill ability went through and try to frame SC. Scum have been clearly trying to lynch SC for the past 2 days in my view. Making night actions seem screwy meshes with that perfectly.
Are you serious? Iece may be considered "town enough" but Tar is super-town. Owned the DGB-scum super-town. To pick Iece-town over Tar-town doesn't make sense, especially if we argue "scum should make sense". Tar scumhunt, doc sane, confirmed, ability, etc. versus Iece?
They didn't believe they could kill tar, see above.
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Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 9:50 am

Post by magnus_orion »

Also, it doesn't make sense that they didn't try to kill Glork (claimed cop) night 1 unless they didn't believe they could kill him. Glork only died because tar thought he was insane. DGB had claimed cop at that point, and Glork had specifically asked people not to target him. It would've been a simple matter of having the docs claim to find that DGB (who'd claimed in the QT) targetted glork in that scenario. BV310's claim blunted the scum doc-kill instrument.
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Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:15 am

Post by Corvuus »

ok. i need to check my notes and read some things and I dont have the time to do that fully right now.

- DGB claimed cop? I thought all cabal claimed doc.

- Tar had Glork listed as protection reversal, not kill reversal in his "claim" list he made for me. Either way, this only shows that Glork is NK "resistant" (which I agree with). I don't see how this extends to Tar or what his claim is? You say see above, could you quote specifically which part since all millers seemed (at that point) to only be reverse sanity of 1 thing (glork protection, tar investigation) but they were 2? hmm. I think Tar's list mislead me. So millers are reverse to 'everything' except 1 aspect (for glork/tar) and reverse to everything for SC/MO?

Tar: are you kill sanity reversal?

I'll check in later.

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Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:55 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Corvuus wrote:I'm not that great at being concise, but here goes.
Magnus:
I don't really like that you are using your role as 'proof' that SC isn't a SK and arguing mod balance.

1. You have stated in the past that you thought sc is an SK. You later said you no longer believed that SC is an SK but that you had before. What changed if your role means he can't possible be SK to you?

2. You do realize that if I was to consider and argue mod balance; I consider a SC-SK + mafia-team more plausible than your global ability existing and town instant losing w/4+ deaths in day 1. This is why I said earlier that I didn't think your role was balanced and was reading into sanity/claims further.

I then found the "list" from the lynch with sanity listed for abilities. For all we know, Tar might be the only sane doc. All the other sanity variations are just "protect self, remove protection". Given that not all docs are sane and only sane docs could vig (vig glork, vig with reversal), I considered it possible for you to exist since most likely (if balanced setup) tar would vig, other docs would be useless/non-vig, mafia might fail their kill, etc.

I really don't like this.

3. I think we are on opposite sides regarding SC's play. You believe him when he says that his "stupidity"/"risky"/"drawing attention" doesn't make sense as scum. If you remove his 'role' (SK, vig, whatever) do you think it is possible for him to be scum? I could argue that his "stupidity/play, etc" doesn't make sense as town.

----

Regarding Dram-haylen:
I think at least one of them have to be scum at this point but I don't know if both makes sense. I was expecting something regarding global roleblock, superkill, or some kind of discussion, argument with it. Instead... it really does seem like 'lynch someone other than me, hey, there is SC-SK'.

Haylen: you said you had a case on magnus that got dropped by computer crash. Could we get that? You list Dram as scum (w/ MO), is there a case for that or just PoE?

Dram: yes, we know you want to lynch SC. Who is scum other than SC?

Tar:
1. I believe Glork reversed kill sanity and protection sanity (not investigation sanity). I also did not see where he claimed he had a 1-time global ability to reverse. Where is that from? I think I read through all of his posts twice but didn't see it in his posts. I will most likely investigate you to check my sanity but with 'reversability' global, psychologist, etc., i don't know if it is interpretable either way.
2. There are several superkill possibilities:

There is no superkill: Mafia killed ice. Haylen is mafia, global roleblock (lockdown is verified regarding night talk, mason talk) didn't affect scumteam. Lack of superkill doesn't mean anything regarding SC as vig or SK. There is still the issue of why Ice was the nightkill choice.

Mafia have superkill: it may specifically say that it works on NK immune/goes through protection, in which case, mafia knows that they can take care of SC-SK at any time they want. I really doubt it is unlimited if it belongs to mafia for balance reasons. If it is limited, why would mafia use it during global roleblock and on ice? Yes, it is important to get kills as mafia, but on Ice? If mafia have superkill, then they have no need to try to lynch SC-SK and could avoid him like the plague and try to lynch the people who do want to lynch him with "scum want to kill nk immune SK, so you guys must be scum". If you seriously believe mafia have superkill, do you seriously believe scum have to be voting SC-SK? In this interpretation, I think I could claim that 1-2 are scum who are not voting SC-SK... however it doesn't make sense for mafia to have the superkill to me... I just find it strange that you do.

SK has superkill: I consider this much more likely given Ice as the nightkill choice. SK wants to kill 'every night' ideally (in this case, he didn't submit a kill the first round on purpose, or mafia/SK targeted same person). When they kill, they don't want to pick the same target as scum. Ice is not a mafia kill choice on a roleblock night. I 100% believe you are town tar, but the fact that you 'lived' last night (as obvious target) is most likely due to global roleblock and scum attempted to kill you and SK killed ice. If I didnt get a "no result" as cop and you lived (plus no lockdown) I might suspect you simply because you are still alive but I do believe you are town, and that the lockdown (block all) did happen. The fact that it was Ice and not you who died leads me to believe SK exists and SK has superkill.
You also make the argument that ice's death and Yosarian (shot) are the same. SK could have a different kill flavor, or SK and mafia could have targeted the same person. I'm not 100% sure of my notes but DGB claimed something weird about kill flavor (was this due to your doc vig?) or DGB and SK both killed same person and DGB expected different flavor. Regardless, kill flavor comparison doesn't seem as solid as "why ice".

If SK has superkill, why wouldn't scum want to kill them? It could be SP psychologist (true claim) or MO ability (false or not full claim). The other possibility is haylen is lying and is a psychologist as well with medical admin as a fakeclaim. Ugh....

1 of haylen/Dram is likely scum. SC is SK. 1 of SP/MO is likely scum.

It is possible for haylen/Dram to be scum together (in which case, Dram is lying about his role and is psychologist who fakeclaim townie?) but I don't think I consider it that likely that they are scum together.


Corvuus
P.S. I did ask several times what people thought about superkill/roleblock since I believed SK-superkill, ice as SK night kill interpretation but I think only Tar mentioned it as well. Major scumpoints for Haylen/Dram for not mentioning it at all in your SC-SK cases, Haylen more so since you did lockdown and brought it up first yet... nothing now?
Okay, first off, on the list of things we need to know:
Mod, what happens if two players with different kill methods kill the same player overnight and both shots succeed?


It is a mystery! But a really crappy one. I believe it's been used in past games. Both kill methods would show...probably.


If only one kill method is shown and an SK (SC) is running around, I'll bet scum killed either Glork or Yos2 (the two strongest players), though I have no idea why their kill method did not appear (and the supposed SK kill method and the known insane doc kill method did appear).

If both kill methods would be shown... the only real possibilities assuming the existence of an SK are that the Mafia killed either farside22 (unlikely, I doubt Haylen is both Town and Sane) or - far more probably - that the Mafia killed StrangerCoug N1. THAT possibility would explain a whole lot, really - it would be just like Random Mafia 3, where the Mafia tried to get me lynched after being convinced I was SK due to their kill getting doc-stopped N1, except that the Mafia would KNOW SC was lying because he claimed not to receive any charges (unless the Mafia kill was insane, that is).

You've got the Mafia-only hypothesis correctly, and I'm leaning towards a Mafia superkill being impossible myself (doesn't make sense with this many protective roles, not to mention the SC issues). At this point, I'd favor a Haylen lynch over dram based on that.

Quick question: why are you assuming the use of the sanity reversal tonight? Vigging at LyLo is BAD, okay? If we lynch Mafia we can use it, otherwise I'm probably not using any abilities tonight.

Quick thought: If Magnus is town or any Mafiosos are insane, Mafia MUST have a role immune to sanity reversal and/or a role that can shift sanity. I'm increasingly convinced Mafia has a Psychologist (one of Socio, Haylen, and dram).

On Glork: Glork never claimed the protection sanity reversal per se, but considering that his role appears to be a near-exact mirror of my own (only question is starting sanity - I suspect Sane) and every other claimed Miller has or has claimed an infectious ability that reverses the sanity of the ability type or types they are a miller to for one night, I consider it logical to conclude that Glork had such an ability. (Yes, my ability reverses investigation sanity for one night.)

Also, Glork has reminded me to put Magnus more firmly into the potential scum pile...
Glork wrote:Tar, you are correct. Protective roles targeting me have their sanity reversed. So, um, if you know you protect sanely, please don't target me.

I have also considered the notion that the scums have at least one Miller role, which may reverse Investigations, Protections, and/or even Kills preformed on them, and I have concluded that this is a likely possibility.


I could tentatively support a Snow_Bunny wagon.
-----

Leaning towards a StrangerCoug lynch at the moment, but I'm not sold on it... protecting tonight risks sanity reversal if Magnus is scum, not protecting Corvuus risks a LyLo with no information, and I'm still not seeing a good way to choose between dram and Haylen (assuming only one is scum) at LyLo.

Unvote
(will revote sometime tomorrow)
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Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 12:44 pm

Post by magnus_orion »

Leaning towards a StrangerCoug lynch at the moment, but I'm not sold on it... protecting tonight risks sanity reversal if Magnus is scum, not protecting Corvuus risks a LyLo with no information, and I'm still not seeing a good way to choose between dram and Haylen (assuming only one is scum) at LyLo.
That's why we kill both of them TODAY and TONIGHT.
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Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 12:49 pm

Post by magnus_orion »

Also, assuming I'm scum, I would've totally used a global sanity reversal night 1
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Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 1:34 pm

Post by Corvuus »

MO: I agree with your sentiment in that you can't be scum and have that ability :P. I do think that, regardless of whether tar wants to vig, you should use it if you have it/town-aligned. I don't think I'll elaborate more except say there is 'saving grace' with you using it.

Haylen, Dram, SC: Only ones with votes... so make a case/do something or face lynch.

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Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:37 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Corvuus wrote:MO: I agree with your sentiment in that you can't be scum and have that ability :P. I do think that, regardless of whether tar wants to vig, you should use it if you have it/town-aligned. I don't think I'll elaborate more except say there is 'saving grace' with you using it.

Haylen, Dram, SC: Only ones with votes... so make a case/do something or face lynch.

C
I'm pretty sure I know what you're referring to (have for a while, but I'm worried about an obvious risk related to an earlier thought of mine.)

Also, now that I actually think about it I'm pretty sure that only one of {Haylen, Magnus} can be town.
magnus_orion wrote:Also, assuming I'm scum, I would've totally used a global sanity reversal night 1
Hmm... do we have any way of knowing that you DIDN'T actually use it N1 before LyLo? AFAICT, there's no clear difference between "N1 normal" and "N1 sanity flipped, all players have opposite sanity from the one they think they have" that can be distinguised before D4...

Still, Haylen's more likely to be scum than you given play, and I've USED "scum NK excepted" on scum-directed global actions before.

I think I'm convinced.

Unvote, Vote: Haylen


Dram gets himself reverse-protected tonight, thank you very much. (Yes m_o, use the infectious.)

-----

Mafiosos: If you KNOW that StrangerCoug is a Serial Killer (due to, say, the Yos2 kill not being a Mafia kill), you should consider trueclaiming now (before Haylen gets lynched). Sure, you'll get lynched tomorrow (or vigged overnight), but if you DON'T claim now and tomorrow begins in Kingmaker (aka "4 or less alive, StrangerCoug claims SK" - a situation where town cannot win) then I will personally decide the Kingmaker in the SK's favor (probably via voting for nolynch, to give the town a chance in case StrangerCoug has limited immunity), and I encourage all other townies to make the same pledge.

That goes double for any Mafiosos named dramonic or Haylen - you're dead by tomorrow morning anyways, and you'll probably give your partner a better shot of winning by claiming now.
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Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:28 am

Post by Corvuus »

i'll take that pledge with a small caveat.

SC, if you don't post during this night phase then I personally will do my best to lynch you tomorrow. No excuses.

Saturday, 9am pst is latest time i can guarantee i will be around. I'll hammer then.

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Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:59 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Corvuus wrote:SC, if you don't post during this night phase then I personally will do my best to lynch you tomorrow. No excuses.
Agreed.
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Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2010 2:14 am

Post by UncertainKitten »

The Thirty-Eighth "<To be filled in>" Vote Count


"<At a later date.>"


Mod Note: Oh hey, another votecount.


1. magnus_orion (0)
2. StrangerCoug (2): Dramonic, Haylen
3. SocioPath (0)
4. Corvuus (0)
7. Tarhalindur (0)
9. Haylen (3): SocioPath, magnus_orion, Tarhalindur
11. Dramonic (1): StrangerCoug

Not Voting (1): Corvuus

Prod Clock (New): Off
Players still needing to respond to prod: No One


With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is in 11 hours at 8:00 PM EST, Saturday, July 10th, 2010
"Never have I seen anybody glorify their own lynch."
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Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2010 5:09 am

Post by Corvuus »

well... i'm here.

vote haylen
.

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Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2010 5:17 am

Post by UncertainKitten »

That works. You aren't getting flavor yet though.
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Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2010 5:17 am

Post by UncertainKitten »

The Thirty-Ninth "End of Day Three" Vote Count


"<Still got nothing>"


Mod Note: I may post a flavor snippet tomorrow, but I'm going places today and don't have time to tell a story, so for now you just get the flip.


1. magnus_orion (0)
2. StrangerCoug (2): Dramonic, Haylen
3. SocioPath (0)
4. Corvuus (0)
7. Tarhalindur (0)
9. Haylen (4): SocioPath, magnus_orion, Tarhalindur, Corvuus
11. Dramonic (1): StrangerCoug

Not Voting (0):
Haylen has reached lynch count.

Prod Clock (New): Off
Players still needing to respond to prod: No One


With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is in 8 hours at 8:00 PM EST, Saturday, July 10th, 2010

...But no one cares, since someone got lynched.
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Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2010 5:18 am

Post by UncertainKitten »

OMG FLAVOR :O


Haylen, Serial Medical Administrator, has been lynched D3


Night ends in 48 hours or something.
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Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2010 6:48 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

I will let mod action or inaction decide this for everybody.
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Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2010 6:54 am

Post by magnus_orion »

UncertainKitten wrote:Haylen, Serial Medical Administrator, has been lynched D3
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Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Sat Jul 10, 2010 7:52 am

Post by dramonic »

O..k...

hey SC?
You're not a serial killer XD
I'm a hoot
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