It finally hit me with MS's post before last. He is scum.
The more I look at, the more this is starting to look like a textbook case (if there was an actual textbook on how to lynch a cop) of where it is safe for scum to attack a cop claim with virtual impunity.
- A player that has habitually it seems, abused the cop claim.
- Several players who still see him (David) as scummy and I do include myself here.
- The normal player impulse to punish (policy lynch) a person who habitually lies, screws up or disrupts games. Even if that impulse is unacknowledged or intentionally being suppressed by some of the players as I think it is here.
Now, add in a post (
here) where a player says that while he may be willing to believe the claiming player(David) is not scum ("
In this case, however, even if David is town, there's a big chance he is vanilla.
") he is overwhelming certain that the cop claim isn't true based on past actions. Fair enough. David has only himself to blame for that one. And you have one part policy lynch that on it's own might be enough to get David lynched despite his claim, depending on how well you could sell it, and not be looked at took closely if you are wrong and he is a cop.
Go on to post a second
(here) that shows some benefits from lynching said player(David). I agree with Copper on this post, it smells. But while I agree with Copper's assessment, I think it smells for an additional reason: No useful information can gleaned from David's lynch at this moment except that we have lynched a liar scum/liar VT or the Cop. David has screwed up his meta, so much it seems, with the cop claim that trying to draw any useful connections is almost ridiculous. You might have additional scum in there but you will certainly have townies in on the lynch that are there for all the wrong reasons because they think David needs a thumping AND we can get some good information from it.
And finally
this post which I have to admit surprised me. When I called MS on failing to compare the chances of David lying on his claim but simply being a VT afraid of lynch I didn't expect a statistical breakdown (@ Michel, you hosed the numbers by the way. Use 24 as the base rather than 16) but rather acknowledgment of the fact that what he was really aiming for was to lynch David because he thinks he lying period. And whether or not David is scum or town was immaterial, something I'd have kept my eye on to be sure, but at this point wouldn't have participated myself in the lynch but I'm not sure how much I would have held it against him (or anyone else) if the DP lynch did go through. It does seem David does need thumped over the way he uses the claim.
But those numbers he threw out are useless as well and not because I think they are hosed up mathematically but because it goes directly to the setup of this game. Granted, there is a current trend towards basic 3:9 in minis for balance reasons but there is no reason to believe at this point that this game conforms to those standards. I feel the numbers he threw out there fall under the category of "baffle them with bullshit". We know that there are townies and scum in this game. Because of David's RC, we now know there is a possibility of a cop existing and not the vague 'well a cop could exist in any game' either but rather a player that has made a statement 'Yes, I'm a Cop.' Past that, doesn't matter what the trend currently is on mafiascum is. We have no idea at this point if the game chauchau set up for us is going to conform to the norm exactly, broadly or not at all. So Michel's statisics are worse than useless static because they make assumptions that might be valid over a broad range of games but could easily bite town in the ass in this specific game. It's for a purpose though and it's not being done to lynch David the Liar, it's being done to lynch David the Cop.
So, a pre-existing bias against a player based on previous play regarding cop claims. A call to that bias that not only leads where I think some players, maybe even a majority, want to go anyway but sweetened with supposed benefits of that lynch information-wise if you don't inspect it too closely all topped off with a neat statistical analysis that is absolutely useless, noise generating static at best and potentially dangerous at worst in my opinion.
Michel Sableheart is scum.
Damn, this turned into another wall.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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I never said nothin' back to him. You don't want mess with no freak that's searchin' around that hard for blood.
. Now I will put a summary of my read and vote and I'll be back in one day to justify them all, so it'd be no big deal since I requested deadline extension. Remember I just skimmed, so if there's any misunderstanding, do repel.
