Mini 961: Insane Asylum II: GAME OVER :O!

[dramonic]

V/LA for the weekend

[UncertainKitten]

To be clear, I still count zero votes, so a vote count is kinda pointless. Consider this an informal one.

[Corvuus]

At this point, I think you are going to keep this going around in circles and no one else seems to care so...
... i'm tempted to just say "do what you want" and watch what you do next since you just keep stating and re-stating and re-stating the same thing over and over and ignoring what you want.
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.... huh... I was thinking of possibilities (global sanity reversal doesn't exist, roleblock) and another occurred to me. Does sanity reversal ability get set 'naive' by my ability since you are an inmate? haylen-mason roleblock would go through... i'll think about this.

...You state that you feel that your action was messed with. Zero discussion of my cop investigation choice, etc. So i'm still not happy about you saying it is "strange" without any discussion.
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No evidence? Well, I guess since you don't accept role balance/setup/previous days/discussion, then yeah, I guess there is no evidence. Either way, you have NOT demonstrated that 2 scum team exists, and the mere fact of stating it is not demonstrating that it exists. Stating that there is no evidence is also not demonstrating that it exists and you still haven't explained anything regarding your thought process for thinking it even existed in the first place.
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You didn't know I wanted you to answer regarding these questions? Sorry, i don't believe that. Go back and read my post (heck, even just my initial response to your 'corv is solo-scum + strange cop investigation' and I ask. This is just revisionism to me to say that I didn't ask.

Your answer is also not satisfactory. What about it is strange? What about my cop investigation is strange? Stating that it is strange does not demonstrate that it is.

You still haven't grasped or realized that this is equivalent to saying "you are scummy" to me (with no reason/evidence) and then just saying "I have demonstrated the possibility, *silence*" without reason/evidence or what I myself said. Essentially, it is equivalent of someone saying "you are scummy" repeatedly without saying why or anything else about it and that by saying it, it has demonstrated that it is so.
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For someone who likes to keep stating that you "understand" my concerns, you really don't. This fundamental flaw just simply isn't true. At no point did i ever say that you have to keep believing what you believed, or that people could never change their mind. I myself have changed my mind at several points (2-2, SC-SK, etc.). The problem is that you have changed your mind without giving a REASON. You can disagree with my cop investigation/2-2 reasoning but I have given a reason. You acknowledge this. You have not given a reason for why you believe 2-scum or why your views of changed except saying it 'has' and that, "it is possible/i have demonstrated it/no evidence". Even my actions that, to you, have 'shaken your town read on me' does not explain going from a 3 + 1 SK scum theory to a 2 + 1 SK theory.
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There was no suspicion of dram until you brought that up? No, sorry, revisionism.
You have a clear idea of Dram's alignment already?
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When you brought up 'getting information so you can make a decision tomorrow' in your previous post, this is a strange position to take. Thinking 2 scum group is pretty strange too. A lot of what you do is strange.

Corvuus
P.S. I'm going to be busy with events today/tomorrow. sort of unofficial VLAish.

[magnus_orion]

You state that you feel that your action was messed with. Zero discussion of my cop investigation choice, etc. So i'm still not happy about you saying it is "strange" without any discussion.

What does this even mean?
I don't understand what you're trying to say.
"Why do you (magnus) find investigating tar strange?"?
If you were sure tar was town, then investigating tar provides you with no new information. You can guess at your sanity fairly well with your investigation of SC plus one unknown (myself or SP). Plus, you believe we are in lylo. Since you had already thought your prior investigation was town, then investigating someone else you think is town only gains us information on your sanity, which gives us information on the accuracy of your past investigations, however, that is utterly useless since we're already convinced SC is town.
So basically, your investigation choice is such that you'd be entering what you believed to be lylo with no useful investigation information.

While its true that your investigations do provide information about the night actions last night, that doesn't help to verify people's alignments.

No evidence? Well, I guess since you don't accept role balance/setup/previous days/discussion, then yeah, I guess there is no evidence. Either way, you have NOT demonstrated that 2 scum team exists, and the mere fact of stating it is not demonstrating that it exists. Stating that there is no evidence is also not demonstrating that it exists and you still haven't explained anything regarding your thought process for thinking it even existed in the first place.

So? You have not demonstrated that a 3 scum team exists either, and your role balance ideas are mere speculation.
You have not presented any prior discussion which makes it more likely that there are 3 scum as opposed to 2.

You still haven't grasped or realized that this is equivalent to saying "you are scummy" to me (with no reason/evidence) and then just saying "I have demonstrated the possibility, *silence*" without reason/evidence or what I myself said. Essentially, it is equivalent of someone saying "you are scummy" repeatedly without saying why or anything else about it and that by saying it, it has demonstrated that it is so

You're oversimplifying, and poorly.
If I were to oversimplify my statements, I'd say it amounts to "I'm not sure you're town" not "I think you're scum"

At no point did i ever say that you have to keep believing what you believed, or that people could never change their mind. I myself have changed my mind at several points (2-2, SC-SK, etc.). The problem is that you have changed your mind without giving a REASON. You can disagree with my cop investigation/2-2 reasoning but I have given a reason. You acknowledge this. You have not given a reason for why you believe 2-scum or why your views of changed except saying it 'has' and that, "it is possible/i have demonstrated it/no evidence". Even my actions that, to you, have 'shaken your town read on me' does not explain going from a 3 + 1 SK scum theory to a 2 + 1 SK theory.

I never claimed to believe 2 scum over 3 scum. The only thing I believe in regards to the number of scum is that there are 2-3 scum in this game.
The proven existence of a SK makes a 2 scum team more likely, and normally I would only consider a 3 scum team, and have done so until we had an sk flip.
Is that what you're asking?

For someone who likes to keep stating that you "understand" my concerns, you really don't. This fundamental flaw just simply isn't true. At no point did i ever say that you have to keep believing what you believed, or that people could never change their mind. I myself have changed my mind at several points (2-2, SC-SK, etc.). The problem is that you have changed your mind without giving a REASON. You can disagree with my cop investigation/2-2 reasoning but I have given a reason. You acknowledge this. You have not given a reason for why you believe 2-scum or why your views of changed except saying it 'has' and that, "it is possible/i have demonstrated it/no evidence". Even my actions that, to you, have 'shaken your town read on me' does not explain going from a 3 + 1 SK scum theory to a 2 + 1 SK theory.

That wasn't the flaw... You've misunderstood. "At all times" refers to the verb "having", but the "definite position" may change to a different "definite position" as new information comes to light.
The quote I made is here

This is because of a fundamental flaw in his reasoning, where he assumes that players should have a definite stance in the game at all times, and that time does not play an influence in how their opinions change.

This is the fundamental flaw in your position that I referred to

I'm the most likely dead tonight so other than lynching scum today, I have to force players to take a stand that can be read/considered in 3 person lylo so that SCtown + townie can make the decision on scum. Dram needs to say whether he believes 1 scum for a reason or 1 scum simply because he thinks MO/Corv/SC are town. SP/SC also need to say what they think regarding 2-3 mafia, scum, etc.

Where you say players have to take a stand.

You didn't know I wanted you to answer regarding these questions? Sorry, i don't believe that. Go back and read my post (heck, even just my initial response to your 'corv is solo-scum + strange cop investigation' and I ask. This is just revisionism to me to say that I didn't ask.

You said to explain why you shook my town reads. That is an explanation of why you shook my town reads. Is that not what you wanted me to explain in the statement I quoted?

If you, at any point in previous posts, said something like "oh, Corvuus' actions shook my town read on him; he could be scum, it would make more sense as solo-scum, etc. reasoning", or if you even posted "oh, 2 scum group initially made sense to me then, but not now, reasoning", then that is vastly different in my perspective since I would have a thought process or reasoning for why you did what you did.

Instead it is still 'circular' in the sense that "Corvuus shook my town read of him" *silence on what exactly or why*.
"I understand Corvuus' concern but this is how he is wrong, could be scum, null-tell, etc". *silence on actual internal thought process or events*.

This statement /\

Your answer is also not satisfactory. What about it is strange? What about my cop investigation is strange? Stating that it is strange does not demonstrate that it is.

Explained above.
And before you say that you've explained it, I am aware you've explained it. However, I'd expect a different action from town regardless that your explanation does justify why you took the action. As such, your choice is still strange. It doesn't make you scum, but does make me less certain that you're town.

There was no suspicion of dram until you brought that up? No, sorry, revisionism.
You have a clear idea of Dram's alignment already?

I didn't see a serious push against Dramonic until day 2. Dramonic was never voted until Day 3. I pushed a Dram, DGB, Haylen scum team after Tar gave evidence suggesting DGB was scum. We proceeded to lynch DGB. I then followed up pushing Dramonic and Haylen on Day 3. That's how I recall the events anyway.

I don't understand the second question. Could you clarify the use of the word "already"?

When you brought up 'getting information so you can make a decision tomorrow' in your previous post, this is a strange position to take. Thinking 2 scum group is pretty strange too. A lot of what you do is strange.

Why is it a strange position to take? I like trying to find all the scum in the game all at once. I find I'm more successful that way.

I disagree that thinking a 2 scum group exists is strange. The number of scum varies, depending on the strength of the power roles in the scum team, and other roles involved in the game.

In my experience, it's usually safe to assume 1/4 of the players are scum, however, it varies as to whether scum are mafia or scum are anti-town
In the former case, it'd be 1 SK + 3 scum (4 anti-town)
In the latter case, it'd be 1SK + 2 scum (3 anti-town)
Also, the number of killing possibilities (through protections) makes the game dangerously swingy. This can be diminished by reducing the number of anti-town roles. I went over this yesterday.

[StrangerCoug]

I hate post walls... I still have the belief that Corvuus is scummier than magnus_orion, but that's admittedly a preconception and I just know I'm missing important stuff from Corvuus vs. magnus_orion.

[UncertainKitten]

OK. Just because

I'm

too lazy to post votecounts doesn't mean you all get to be too lazy to post. GET CRACKAN!

[StrangerCoug]

OK, OK, fine!

magnus_orion and Corvuus, can you summarize your case on each other in one paragraph?

[magnus_orion]

lol. I don't have a case on cooruvs. I'm just trying to gauge how pro-town he is, get a better read on him.
He seems to think otherwise, though. He's worried I'm out to get him or something.

[StrangerCoug]

It's fine if you don't; the two things I wanted were to spark discussion and get a better understanding of what's going on right now.

[SocioPath]

magnus_orion and Corvuus, can you summarize your case on each other in one paragraph?

I've SEEN their paragraphs...you might want to cut it from more than that. ;o

[StrangerCoug]

magnus_orion and Corvuus, can you summarize your case on each other in one paragraph?

I've SEEN their paragraphs...you might want to cut it from more than that. ;o

You don't have a 1,920×1,080 monitor, do you? Granted, they may be long reads, but looking at this page only, the longest paragraph by one of them takes up four lines on my screen.

Is asking that it be from three to five sentences reasonable for you?

[SocioPath]

magnus_orion and Corvuus, can you summarize your case on each other in one paragraph?

I've SEEN their paragraphs...you might want to cut it from more than that. ;o

You don't have a 1,920×1,080 monitor, do you? Granted, they may be long reads, but looking at this page only, the longest paragraph by one of them takes up four lines on my screen.

Is asking that it be from three to five sentences reasonable for you?

MIND THE FACE.

Also 1920x1080 would mean FEWER lines, not more. ;o

[StrangerCoug]

I know. Line length increases as a result, though.

[Corvuus]

Alright, I'm back from my real-life commitments.
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At this point, I think I am going to re-read and consider things more and won't be voting for anyone yet.

I don't agree with Magnus on several things but my view of him being scum is predominately based on his post where he said I was solo-scum + strange cop investigation, his stance/my view of him as a player and process of elimination based on what I think of the game... and I need to take a step back and consider more.

Cliff-notes version:

I believe, based on role balance, that it is most likely an initial 3 scum team + 1 SK. I am town, SC is town. DGB is scum doc, Haylen is SK. Thus there are 2 scum left. (if you want my cliff-notes version to include my 2-2 theory, then ask me SC).

Dram is likely based on voting pattern/PoE/role balance/yesterday and, at the start of the day, i was considering which between SP/MO as the scum partner.

Based on voting pattern (DGB-wagon lynch), they both voted to lynch DGB with SP as the first vote and MO's as the last vote. At the very least this means a SP/MO scumteam is extremely unlikely as they could have derailed the lynch, etc. Either way, 1 of them is scum busing and I was leaning MO as more likely scum compared to SP based on timing/interaction. I still believe Tar's analysis of roles holds true in that there is too many town-aligned roles, but I also have a hard time in seeing a team of all power roles (DGBdoc + SP psychologist + MO jack of all) balanced against town-roles. The voting pattern/PoE/role balance in a 3 + 1 situation is why I think Dram + scumbuddy.

My "case" on MO is process of elimination and whether MO actions/thinking are more likely as town or scum. MO's post (solo-scum + strange cop investigation, you should read this post SC) is made near the start of the day and, based on my view of the game and why I choose Tar as my investigation, (you should read this one as well SC) this struck me as a scum action and confirmed to me that MO is the more likely scumpartner than SP. So I responded to what I viewed as scum trying to lynch me.

I have been considering whether MO's actions/thinking are more likely as town or scum and I have been, admittedly, harassing him to try to get a better read/determination of him based on a response. His answers haven't been conclusively town or scum to me at all, and all I know of MO now is that he is a smart/balanced player in his response whether as scum or town.

If I had a sure read on MO, I would vote but I am not sure. I'm still considering whether my initial reaction is biased against his responses and what his alignment is since I could be 'confirmation biased' in the sense that I thought he was scum from his initial post near start of the day, and so I see his actions afterwards as most likely scum in the motivation and explanation. The fact that there IS a scum-version for his play isn't helping me figure out whether he is town or not.

While I am re-thinking and going to try to re-read a bit I'm still leaning towards a MO/Dram team as the most likely situation. I think trying to figure out Dram's scumpartner first (or in the extremely unlikely event of a MO/SP team, prevent a mislynch) is worth continuing the day and I'd rather lynch Dram's scumbuddy first and Dram second unless something changes.

Corvuus
P.S. If you want more cliff notes then this, I don't know what to tell you SC. .

[dramonic]

you guys should try to make more concise posts, I'm not quite stimulated my will to read all those walls.

[Corvuus]

Even if you don't wish to read, you could still post your thoughts on the game.

A question i wrote for you earlier:
Why do you think there is only 1 scum left in the game?

Corv

[magnus_orion]

While I am re-thinking and going to try to re-read a bit I'm still leaning towards a MO/Dram team as the most likely situation. I think trying to figure out Dram's scumpartner first (or in the extremely unlikely event of a MO/SP team, prevent a mislynch) is worth continuing the day and I'd rather lynch Dram's scumbuddy first and Dram second unless something changes.

If we assume 2 scum,
I disagree that lynching the variable first is a good plan, because I've pushed that idea as scum to win in lylo before. Why would you prefer this course of action?
But I would rather find dram's buddy today than worry about it tomorrow.

I'd like to hear SP's thoughts on who could be scum besides dram, or if he believes dram is the lone remaining scum.

[Corvuus]

It is always so great and refreshing that you say, "i've done this as scum before" and "why would you prefer this course of action" to imply without saying anything yet when i make comments like that to you, you say it isn't true/doesn't exist.

I also like how you automatically assume you'll be alive tomorrow and that this 'dram buddy' finding would matter if you survive and are town.
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The reasoning should be obvious. There is a difference between lynching Dram versus his power role-scumbuddy and there is a difference in figuring out connections and actually getting a vote out on scumbuddy as opposed to Dram.

This should especially be true with your stated view(s) of the game, but I think I'll refrain from saying more at this point since we both want players to give their input and this could easily regress back into me harassing you and you sidestepping.

.........

I will state this now though for the complete and total record. If you do decide on a 3 scum initially (2 left) and you vote to lynch anyone but Dram, I will point out the hypocrisy made here.

Corvuus

[magnus_orion]

I agree, that would be hypocritical...
If by lynch, my opinion is that dram is scum with someone, and I don't vote for dram, that would be hypocritical.
...


Ok, in a game I've played prior, I was a mafia godfather. I was trying to get someone mislynched, and my scum buddy was pretty much mutually decided by everyone to be scum. I pushed that we should lynch the scum buddy that day, whom I'd been attacking since the day before. I made sure it was just between me and this other person by voting at the beginning of lylo. I managed to convince one of the other townies, and then me and my buddy hammered. I also believe I'd have lost had it turned out they lynched my buddy.
Because of this, I think its safer not to try for the less certain member.
I'm not calling you scum. I'm asking why you are suggesting we do otherwise.

I also like how you automatically assume you'll be alive tomorrow and that this 'dram buddy' finding would matter if you survive and are town.

I'll give you advice. You should ask first, before accusing based on implications. You'll find people to be more cooperative that way, and misunderstand less.
When trying to catch scum, it will also help because you don't show your hand before seeing if they can explain it away.
I'm not assuming I'll be alive tomorrow. Finding dram's buddy is a collective action taken by the town, which I would prefer, to the alternative of the town worrying about who it is tomorrow (I prefer this because potentially I won't be there, and because I find that I'm more successful working out the game all at once)

[magnus_orion]

Turns out I lied, and i didn't vote that person at the beginning of lylo in the game I was talking about.
*shrug*
pretty irrelevant to the point being made though.

[SocioPath]

I'd like to hear SP's thoughts on who could be scum besides dram, or if he believes dram is the lone remaining scum.

I generally go with the assuming that everyone is scum, as opposed to no one.


As far as Corvuus and you, today has been useless because its impossible to get a read on any of the walls you two are relaying back and forth.
Especially when it seems most is IIoA to some degree.

Luckily there is past info to fall back on.
Most damning thing of farside/Corv is FS's reaction to my DGB attacks, and her participation in the DGB wagon.
FS first questions the intent of my vote on DGB. (Which was because of DGB's complete avoidance of me, just calling me town and moving on.)
Then after the whole CABAL thing where both DGB/HAYLEN were like "LOL THERE IS SCUM BUT WE ARE ALL TOWN"
Only then did FS drop a "vote" on DGB.
She didn't unvote prior though.
And her vote never went on.
And so DGB was deadline lynched.
All while attacking DGB.

QUITE STRANGE BEHAVIOR INDEED.



Then for MO, THE MANGO.
The things that struck me off him happened in the middle of the DGB event.
Asking me questions that I deem pointless, and then rehashing such again and again has worked in my favor in the past for scum getting annoyed at lack of answers to questions so that they can appear pro-town.
And in the same vein, the whole Cabal ignorance.
Given the context which it was originally said, and what Cabals are in general, it should have been blindingly obvious that the "Cabal" equaled the "neighborhood".
That whole thing seemed off as trying to remain clueless and painted it as me somehow having prior knowledge to such.
"WHAT? CABAL? NEVER HEARD THAT WORD BEFORE IN MY LIFE. HOW DO YOU KNOW ALL OF THIS? EH SCUM?"


Both of those reads are hazy at best because I highly doubt both are scum together, because that would mean Dram isn't.

The walls though would be a point in that favor, confuscating a days worth of potential reads by relaying BS back and forth at each other until deadline.

[Corvuus]

I'll give you advice. You should ask first, before accusing based on implications. You'll find people to be more cooperative that way, and misunderstand less.

nice.

[dramonic]

Even if you don't wish to read, you could still post your thoughts on the game.

A question i wrote for you earlier:
Why do you think there is only 1 scum left in the game?

Corv

I feel its more likely when you look at the balance, but once again this is bastard mod and I know nothing about UK's psychology.

[StrangerCoug]

Major HoS: dramonic

Stop beating around the damn bush. The only reason I'm not voting you right now is because I want to make sure the initial breakdown is not 8:3:1 first.

[Corvuus]

Dram: Elaborate on what you think regarding role balance that makes you think it is 1 scum left instead of 2.

SC:.... did you mean to include that 'not'?

C