Mini 1005: Mafiaphobes! (Game over)

[xvart]

It should be obvious that I think quadz08 is pretty scummy, so yeah, I think he's likely scum.

So you're voting someone that could only be anti-town over someone that is likely scummy?

vezokpiraka: Anti-town at the very best, scummy at worst.

xvart.

[diddin]

Top 3 scumspects:

1. SSBF
2. quadz
3. vezo

Okay, wait a minute, the order doesn't really make much sense. You put Quadz08 at 2nd and vezokpiraka at 3rd. Yet you pushed vezokpiraka's lynch more then quadz08's lynch, where you said he only had one post. How is that one post you called quadz08 out on makes him scummier then vezokpiraka?

What do you mean the case on quadz is good? Like, you think he is likely scum? Or could he be anti-town? Or could he just be town in a pickle?

It should be obvious that I think quadz08 is pretty scummy, so yeah, I think he's likely scum.

When I voted vezo, you weren't on my scumlist. The reason I am not pushing the quadz lynch as hard is I much prefer a lynch of you. What I said on quadz was only one point, xvart has the majority of the argument on him.

[Sotty7]

When I'm referring to vezo backpedaling, I'm referring to his voting on Tasky, then when the instigator of the bandwagon unvotes, he jumps off the wagon with just an "I agree." I'd say the difference is I actually posed my own insight on my unvote where vezo just blindly agreed.

True. I still find you slightly hypocritical for this though. You both basically unvoted for the same reason and to cast suspicion on him from your position is pretty weak in my eyes. You look better for giving more insight, but it is negated by your attack on vezo.

L-2 tends to be a big deal to me early in the game because D1 tends to generate the most discussion we can use for the future. I never want to rush a lynch D1 because I always feel there is more to discuss D1.

But what makes L-2 different from L-3? Normally the tipping point would be L-1 where either you ask for a claim or someone unvotes because they don't want a lynch that fast. This isn't a newbie game, the likely hood of a quick hammer is somewhat low. I see you listed vezo as one of your top three I would have thought keeping him high in the vote count would have been something you wanted (pressure=information) your unvote strikes me as an attempt to possibly buy town cred. One, because of the reasons mentioned as far as L-2 go, but also because you suggested looking at vezo's wagon but then you didn't do that. Why not?

I'll come back to your three scum suspects later, I still need to ISO a couple of people.

= = = = = =

I have a question for everyone:

at any point, up until the last page or so, did you ever think that SSBF was even a remote possibility for a lynch today?

Not until recently no. I still don't think he is the best lynch for today.

= = = = =

This day is too swingy.
Anything can happen and everyone may get lynched.

Here get some pressure if it's needed. My vote is still on kagelord but xvart apparently wants some help.

Unvote
Vote Quadz

You doing some work of your own in this thread would be a good place to start. Do you even find Quadz scummy?

[Oso]

@xvart

Ok, I'll bite on that one. How do you explain 'gut feeling'? By definition it is not something based in logic. It based on past experience, overall impressions and perhaps even a subconscious awareness that something is wrong or right but you just haven't ferreted out the logical basis for it yet.

Who was this directed at?

I'm going to go ahead and say that playing by gut is fine but it shouldn't be used as a tool to finagle lynch orders/preferences in such drastic ways.

Case Study by xvart #1:

That in direct response to this:

..
I do not disagree with the fact that logic is not everything. But when you make a case on someone where you first focus on logic that doesn't hold together and there's no attempt to explain the "gut" you apparently feel, it makes me wonder at how easy it is to get anyone lynched.

There were a few posts between Poirot's and mine. Sorry for the confusion.

[xvart]

There were a few posts between Poirot's and mine. Sorry for the confusion.

I figured as much; but I used your post as a springboard.

xvart.

[xvart]

Okay... I was going to wait until some more people weighed in on my question about the likelihood of a SSBF earlier in the game, but since there is a lull right now I'm going to go ahead and say with confidence that two scum are

quadz08

and

SSBF

. The case on quadz08 is solid while the case on SSBF is a little more circumstantial (which is why quadz08 is the day one lynch and SSBF is the day two lynch). I must admit that if quadz flips scum then the case on SSBF gets exponentially stronger whereas quadz is scum regardless of SSBF's alignment. I should also note that I don't usually speculate on scum teams/scum pairings on day one but this one is just staring down at me.

Quadz is scum. That much I think I've made clear. But his associations with SSBF are equally interesting, especially when you consider his last game where he was lynched on the last day and flipped scum. The post game conversations were especially intriguing considering the biggest critique of his play during that game was his distancing on day one. He was told to be more aggressive and not so buddy buddy to his scum pals. My hypothesis is quadz went after SSBF when it was most likely not going to lead to anything. It gave him town credit for "scumhunting" and set him up later if SSBF flipped scum. The only problem is his logic for voting SSBF is not sound compared to the other cases he's made; and he sure goes out of his way to say he's up for other lynches but thinks SSBF is scummier.

My number one suspect right now is SSBF.

First and foremost is this:

Defending people is a scum tell, period.

This is part of his ISO #9. To me, what this statement boils down to is that if a player has a reasonable point saying that a player is not scum (or may not be scum, or whatever), he shouldn't bring it up if that person is thought to be scummy. That makes no sense to me. "Gee, I have this opinion that, if brought up, may keep us from lynching a townie. But that's a no-no! Only scum defend people!" I just don't see how forcing out opinions is pro-town in any way.

There is also this (found in his ISO #8):

Absolutely hate this. I see absolutely no purpose of that self-vote, especially since we're already getting something to work on in this game.

SSBF made a pretty big deal about what was clearly a jokey vote. Like someone (diddin, maybe?) said earlier, it seems like he's grasping at straws. Yes, we were in the serious stage. But come on, it's a game, dangit! Let a man make a dumb joke. It meant nothing and did no harm to scumhunting. Not worth the attention it's gotten.

I also have an eye on KageLord, xvart, and vezok

, but nobody has really exhibited any huge scumtells that I've seen. SSBF seems to me the wisest D1 lynch, at this point.

I would be ok with a vezok lynch today.

I still think SSBF looks scummier

, but vezok certainly has a good enough case against him to be lynched today.

@xvart:
It's that and some gut feeling. He and vezok look scummiest to me right now.

SSBF's grasping of straws and dislike of defense of others comes across as scummier to me than vezok's short posts.

Not by a huge stretch, but still more.

But like I said, I'm willing to lynch either.

TBH,

I just don't find you as scummy as SSBF.

The gut feeling just isn't there. His reasoning seems more forced than yours, and it seems like he's trying harder to get someone lynched with those points, rather than just discussing them.

Bolded emphasis added by me.

---------------------------------------

SSBF on the other hand is now saying that quadz is likely scum (after all my posts) but is still voting for someone who he admits might just be anti-town. He is doing the same thing as quadz, only backwards. He's voting for someone that most people would typically agree needs to die at some point while leaving him the out of voting for actual scum if it comes to that. His interactions with quadz have been very limited up until I started questioning quadz and bringing him to center stage.

Heaven forbid I have a differing opinion on a player from someone else, amirite? That was a very foolish statement, methinks.

I never said it's wrong to have a differing opinion on a person. If you gave a simple town read with decent explanation on why and not continue to further defend the town read, then it isn't a problem. What is a problem is going and deliberately defending the person. It establish links between a person and makes you scummier, especially if the person flips scum.

Quadz08: Reading Quadz08 in ISO, #258 feels like AtE. He admitting to having a problem with his play style instead of actually making a decent response to Poirot's case to him with Poirot made in #252. I also find it odd that despite him attacking vezokpiraka, that he's currently going after me. He showed us more evidence that vezokpiraka was scum then I was, yet has a vote one me. I also wasn't a fan of his defense of diddin as it made him look hypocritical when calling me out for "defending is a scum tell.". The case against Quadz08 is decent as well.

Willing to lynch him if vezokpiraka doesn't ge through ToDay.

It should be obvious that I think quadz08 is pretty scummy, so yeah, I think he's likely scum.

Again, bolded emphasis added by me.

Again, quadz is certainly scum. SSBF is likely scum, and is more likely scum if quadz flips scum. I should also add that reading each in ISO will not give you the full picture; it is important to read these two players within the context of the entire thread, especially starting at post 238.

Let's get this taken care of.

xvart.

[Sotty7]

xvart I'm not sure I am understanding you as far as the first part of that post goes. You are saying that even though quadz is voting for SSBF now, you think the vote is weak and lacks substance so points to bussing?

[xvart]

xvart I'm not sure I am understanding you as far as the first part of that post goes. You are saying that even though quadz is voting for SSBF now, you think the vote is weak and lacks substance so points to bussing?

I think he put the vote there and built his "case" when everyone was focusing on other things and more viable lynches. And yes, his case is totally weak and the logic does not grind with his lynch priority list.

xvart.

[diddin]

The reason I haven't looked at the vezo wagon is I think analyzing wagons is something to do after a flip.

[Sotty7]

quadz starts off the game very neutral. Understands the “Tasky is scummy” situation but doesn't agree. I wonder quadz, did you find anyone scummy for pushing that line of thought?

He spends a little while not voting and seems to be feeling the game out until this:

BANDWAGON ON Q21!!!!!

Aww, crap. Too late.

Anyway, I agree about vezok.

I'm glad KageLord noticed the time differential between vezok's post and SSBF's; that was well done.

Vezok's very first post was an immediate vote on Tasky for "subtly" ending RVS, which was a scum-tell to him. However, Tasky very clearly pointed out he was attempting to end RVS:

now... since I'd actually like to get out of the RVS fast, I'll ask some questions for you to answer...

Far from subtle, hm?

He also said he thought quicklynches could be beneficial, and has provided close to none of his own opinion. (Of course, this early in the game, that's not really a big deal.)

I think right now, he's the scummiest-looking player, so...

VOTE: vezokpiraka

The bold part is the most striking to me. quadz, do you still think the time difference in between the two posts is a good point in the vezo case?

His case on SSBF does seem to come from nowhere, but he said he did a re-read and re-reads are when you would hope new info comes up. But after the case he does little to push his vote. SSBF's post after quadz votes him makes no mention of the vote or case on him. He just totally ignores this. Then quadz ignores the fact he is being ignored and we get a lot of nothing. That just doesn't seem like a townie reaction to me. Your vote gets ignored so you carrying doing nothing that has anything to do with your top suspect? Feels fake.

[Sotty7]

The reason I haven't looked at the vezo wagon is I think analyzing wagons is something to do after a flip.

L-2 this early? I think we really need to take a look at this wagon, as it took off way too quick.

unvote

I'm sorry but those two statements don't match up to me.

[Sotty7]

The only problem is his logic for voting SSBF is not sound compared to the other cases he's made; and he sure goes out of his way to say he's up for other lynches but thinks SSBF is scummier.

Can you show me the "other cases" quadz has made?

[xvart]

The only problem is his logic for voting SSBF is not sound compared to the other cases he's made; and he sure goes out of his way to say he's up for other lynches but thinks SSBF is scummier.

Can you show me the "other cases" quadz has made?

I was using the word "cases" fairly loosely. I should have said the other people he has called suspicious and the reasons he finds them suspicious.

xvart.

[q21]

The reason I haven't looked at the vezo wagon is I think analyzing wagons is something to do after a flip.

L-2 this early? I think we really need to take a look at this wagon, as it took off way too quick.

unvote

I'm sorry but those two statements don't match up to me.

This, is a very good catch.

Explain yourself, diddin.

[xvart]

I'm sorry but those two statements don't match up to me.

Nice catch. Checking context of both statements.

xvart.

[diddin]

The reason I haven't looked at the vezo wagon is I think analyzing wagons is something to do after a flip.

L-2 this early? I think we really need to take a look at this wagon, as it took off way too quick.

unvote

I'm sorry but those two statements don't match up to me.

Why do you feel the need to apologize?

Anyways, as I said earlier, I don't like D1's ending quickly because I think you can get a lot of information off of them. I said WE need to take a look at the wagon, not just myself. I personally don't do wagon analysis's until after flips, but that doesn't mean that other people don't.

[quadz08]

quadz starts off the game very neutral. Understands the “Tasky is scummy” situation but doesn't agree. I wonder quadz, did you find anyone scummy for pushing that line of thought?

I did not find anyone scummy for that, I don't believe. I thought it was mostly a discussion of theory, not anything that showed a whole lot of tell one way or another.

He spends a little while not voting and seems to be feeling the game out until this:

BANDWAGON ON Q21!!!!!

Aww, crap. Too late.

Anyway, I agree about vezok.

I'm glad KageLord noticed the time differential between vezok's post and SSBF's; that was well done.

Vezok's very first post was an immediate vote on Tasky for "subtly" ending RVS, which was a scum-tell to him. However, Tasky very clearly pointed out he was attempting to end RVS:

now... since I'd actually like to get out of the RVS fast, I'll ask some questions for you to answer...

Far from subtle, hm?

He also said he thought quicklynches could be beneficial, and has provided close to none of his own opinion. (Of course, this early in the game, that's not really a big deal.)

I think right now, he's the scummiest-looking player, so...

VOTE: vezokpiraka

The bold part is the most striking to me. quadz, do you still think the time difference in between the two posts is a good point in the vezo case?

I do not. Oso (I think) made a good point about not using out-of-game reasoning, because who knows what was happening IRL. I hadn't thought about that before Oso brought it up.

His case on SSBF does seem to come from nowhere, but he said he did a re-read and re-reads are when you would hope new info comes up. But after the case he does little to push his vote. SSBF's post after quadz votes him makes no mention of the vote or case on him. He just totally ignores this. Then quadz ignores the fact he is being ignored and we get a lot of nothing. That just doesn't seem like a townie reaction to me. Your vote gets ignored so you carrying doing nothing that has anything to do with your top suspect? Feels fake.

You're right, SSBF did ignore me. However, that wasn't a pressure vote. That was a "this guy is scummy, so I'm voting him" vote. If he didn't respond, then that's his choice to ignore it. I saw no need to push him into responding to it; what would I have said? "Hey, SSBF, I voted for you! Aren't you going to comment on it?" I'm sure that would have looked much less scummy.

[q21]

The reason I haven't looked at the vezo wagon is I think analyzing wagons is something to do after a flip.

L-2 this early? I think we really need to take a look at this wagon, as it took off way too quick.

unvote

I'm sorry but those two statements don't match up to me.

Why do you feel the need to apologize?

Anyways, as I said earlier, I don't like D1's ending quickly because I think you can get a lot of information off of them. I said WE need to take a look at the wagon, not just myself. I personally don't do wagon analysis's until after flips, but that doesn't mean that other people don't.

The word we is inclusive of the person who says it. This means that when you said "

we

really need to take a look at this wagon" you were including yourself among those to needed to analyze the wagon. If you'd meant that people other than yourself needed to do the analysis you'd have said "you really need to...".

That, of course, excludes the fact that wanting other people to do work you yourself are not willing to do is pretty anti-town all by itself.

[Sotty7]

Why do you feel the need to apologize?

It's a turn of phrase, but nice attempted deflection back at me.

Anyways, as I said earlier, I don't like D1's ending quickly because I think you can get a lot of information off of them. I said WE need to take a look at the wagon, not just myself. I personally don't do wagon analysis's until after flips, but that doesn't mean that other people don't.

Well no one did take a look at the wagon that I remember. Why are you not up in arms over that? Your unvote seemed to suggest that you thought scum was driving the wagon and that veszo could be town. (If not, why the unvote?) Why don't you look at wagons until the flip? What do you think about my analysis's of the Tasky wagon?

I'm also with q21 in the fact that you are basically asking other people to do the work, it's scummy.

= = = = =

You're right, SSBF did ignore me. However, that wasn't a pressure vote. That was a "this guy is scummy, so I'm voting him" vote. If he didn't respond, then that's his choice to ignore it. I saw no need to push him into responding to it; what would I have said? "Hey, SSBF, I voted for you! Aren't you going to comment on it?" I'm sure that would have looked much less scummy.

Okay. Tell me, outside of your vote what are you doing to get SSBF lynched?

= = = = =

@ SSBF:

What do you think about quadz's vote on you? Why didn't you initially comment on it?

@ q21 and xvart:

What's your opinion of vezo right now and the wagon on him?

What happened to Oso?

[vezokpiraka]

No question's for me?
I am getting bored.
Well he wants other people to do the work vut if he doesn't comment or anything then he is just active lurking.

[Sotty7]

...I asked you a question. Here is another, are you even reading the thread?

[vezokpiraka]

Yes I do.

[q21]

@ q21 and xvart:

What's your opinion of vezo right now and the wagon on him?

If I have to I'll vote him before deadline. A vezo lynch is better than no lynch. I still want more KageLord votes, though.

[quadz08]

Okay. Tell me, outside of your vote what are you doing to get SSBF lynched?

Waiting for other scumtells to come out of him, and repeating that I think he is scum. There isn't much else to do, that I can see. I can't keep repeating the same case over and over, that would accomplish nothing, and look scummy.

[quadz08]

Also, we haven't heard anything from jay since his declaration of Humble's scuminess. It would be superb if we could get some more info on that...

@Mod: has jay been prodded?