Mini 1012: Mafia In Soraville (Game Over!)

[Haschel Cedricson]

/confirm

And that brings it to nine confirmees, so let's get this party started!

Vote: Twomz

. He knows why.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I think you mean seven.

VOTE: Haschel Cedricson 'cause he doesn't know how to count.

People who have confirmed so far:
Kov
Friend
Fugitive
TheLonging
Twomz
ready2rock
esuriospiritus
DemonHybrid
Haschel Cedricson

Say what with the what now?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Fair enough.

Vote: Twomz

. For REAL this time.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Huggle: Friend

cause it makes sense.

Vote: Hurchel Cedricson

cause I don't believe we've met and no, I don't know what I did >.>

We were actually in Explosiva Mafia together a long time ago.

Of course, that has nothing to do with anything.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Ugh, Exposiva was the last game I was in before I quit... I had no other games going, school had just started back up... >.< man, I always felt really bad about that, I just kinda forgot about the site and stopped posting. Oh well, no intention of doing that again .

No worries. Apparently I won, but that was only because the mod couldn't find anybody to replace me. I flaked out of the game a couple days in and still survived to endgame.

[Haschel Cedricson]

[Haschel Cedricson]

Unvote Twomz, Vote ready2rock

[Haschel Cedricson]

He's saying that DH's normal meta would be to see how obvious Jack would be doing, so he voted for Friend instead. He never once considered DH voting Jack for the same reasons.

IP obviously won't say yes, it'll just make him look stupid.

I have no idea what DH's normal meta is. I do know that Jack likes to start games with statements like that, designed to provoke reaction. Now, the way I see it, there are three main ways a person can react to Jack's post:

1) Take him at face value. Vote: Jack
2) Be confused. This is the decision that Twomz and DH have taken.
3) Understand what's going on. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

Let's say that you fall into the latter category. You recognize that Jack is looking for reactions. Don't you want to see what these reactions are going to be? If people are asking what's going on, I don't see why you would want to reveal that you know something is up. That's why I don't like r2r's post:

I'm not going to bother voting Jack. That's just TOO obvious. Plus, I highly doubt that his role PM didn't explain his role.
EBWOP: Jack has 3849 total posts

Really? Jack's being too obvious? Well, if other people hadn't noticed, they sure will now, now that you've told them things are more than they seem! Now we don't get to see the reactions of the people who hadn't posted between Jack and r2r.

[Haschel Cedricson]

EBOWP: The case on Friend is a good one too. I don't like his apparent assumption that the trap was intended for DH.

[Haschel Cedricson]

You don't need to know DH's normal meta.

I know. That's why I'm not focusing on DH.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Also, scum's first instinct if they see someone who might be a traitor is not to vote for them.

@HC: yes, I think it's that obvious. For an experienced player to post something like that is very obvious. I don't think that anyone would actually believe that he was a traitor even if I hadn't posted that.

Well, we'll never know, will we, Mr. Whistleblower?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Let me thrust my logical penis into your chattering mouth

Pie only went for Friend and not DH. I assume this is because Pie just jumped on a non-SH member (LOLBIAS)

Anyways this is retarded. Can we not talk about how Jack got us out of RVS? Any more discussion is useless, and those who pursue it (IE: DH) should be questioned further.

I rest my case Your Honor.

Don't like this one bit - talking about how Jack got us out of RVS is good.

Wait, when was RVS a good thing? And anyways, you completely missed the point kthx. I'm not going to tell you my point until you make somewhat of an effort to understand.

Unless I'm misreading, I think one of you wants to discuss "

HOW

Jack got us out of RVS" and the other is saying that we don't need to discuss "how

JACK GOT US OUT OF RVS

".

Does that make sense to anybody else?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Hey guys, sorry about my absence. I was dogsitting for my parents, and apparently they no longer have Internet access at their house.

I think they deliberately waited until I was already there to let me know about it. I'll read what I missed and post later tonight or early tomorrow.

[Haschel Cedricson]

You're calling me scum for all the wrong reasons.

Still in the process of rereading everything, but this sentence alone is almost enough to make me vote for TL right now. It heavily implies that he believes there are right reasons to call him scum.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Right now, I think that one of {TL, pie, DH} is scum. Right now I'm leaning towards DH, but I'm not sure.

I find this post suspicious, mostly because I think there's no way that anybody can find DH scummier than TL. Let's look at r2r's case on DH:

DH: I think he's neutral. I agree with esuriospiritus that he seems to be trying a little too hard to scumhunt, but I don't know how sure of a scumtell that is right now. it is day 1 after all.

Mostly

DH for reasons I said before. I feel like most of your wagoning is for pressure, which is good (of course I could be wrong).

That's not really a case.

He also says his scummiest read is Pie when (from the looks of it), all he did was voice his suspicion of Jack (something to note if DH flips scum, maybe they planned the whole RVS thing in the QT?).

I like my case on DH, so I'll go ahead and VOTE: DemonHybrid.

Yes, that's a great reason to vote DH, even though TL is much scummier.

I'm still going to

Unvote: ready2rock

, though. Why?

Because I want to

Vote: TheLonging

. I'm not going to repeat all of the reasons that other people have already mentioned, but I'll go over the things that tip the scales for me. First off there's the "scum for the wrong reasons" post I mentioned before. Just because the town takes a crappy road to reach a conclusion doesn't inherently make the conclusion wrong. Second, I think people have let TL off the hook for his "DH is the Godfather" remark. It's unnecessary speculation on roles AND an act of subtle powerrole direction.

Combined with the overdefensiveness and the rambling about meta when it's completely unwarranted, and I have enough to feel comfortable voting for TL. The whole "Hey I must be bussing

MY SCUMBUDDY

amirite?" thing feels wrong, too; admittedly I am having difficulty articulating why.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I'm posting on no sleep. ^5

Haschel, what do you mean TL's godfather comment is "an act of subtle powerrole direction"? I don't understand this part, although note that I do appreciate your support on the TL wagon.

After waking up and rereading what I wrote, I can't remember what I meant. I think I was trying to say that TL was poisoning the well should an investigator get an innocent result on DH, but I don't know why I phrased it that way.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Is that all?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Until you provide a better case on me or my brain comes up with more responses or until ortiz posts in here for once, then yes

Still in the process of rereading everything, but this sentence alone is almost enough to make me vote for TL right now. It heavily implies that he believes there are right reasons to call him scum.

Your nonacknowledgement of the above post has been duly noted.

[Haschel Cedricson]

OK, I didn't catch that. cause I went right to your case. So um, that's also a bad thing. You're calling me scum for all the wrong reasons is a sentence that implies "YOUR REASONING IS CRAP", and maybe if someone provided BETTER reasoning... you know, like pretty much none of the reasoning I'm getting here (I can name like, 1 or 2).

That's the thing, though; why would you WANT us to find better reasoning to find you scum? You should want us to find better reasoning to find OTHER people scum.

I've seen people say similar things in face-to-face Mafia, and they're invariably scum. That's not hyperbole; literally every person to say that has been scum. I've accidentally done it myself when I was about to get lynched for "talking more than usual" when I wasn't. Saying the case against you is "wrong"? Perfectly fine. Saying the town has "the wrong reasons"? Scummy.

[Haschel Cedricson]

EBWOP: Kov, that's not really OMGUS. You DID join a wagon without stating why.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Quick note: I've been reading, but I have a ton of homework due at midnight so don't expect any analysis until tomorry.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Just saying, every time I check the thread I think how funny it would be to toss a hammer if someone gets to L-1. Take that into consideration when waiting til there to claim .

I don't get it. Explain the joke.

[Haschel Cedricson]

My reason was to get you [DH] to show how you are contradicting yourself. See bolded. I did the same as Jack he votes and gives reasons much later. I decided to vote with no reasons to emulate Jack. You find it scummy for me but not for him. THAT'S WHAT A CONTRADICTION IS! Voting for TL means nothing against him I don't see as scummy. I choose him as it would draw most attention.

I really wasn't expecting a wagon on DH I was hoping for a Jack one.

This is a contradiction here. Were you trying to catch DH or were you trying to catch Jack?

I know this isn't the popular opinion right now, but in the case of DH v. Kov, DH is making much more sense. Kov's explanation for his TL vote made sense -until he admits that he wasn't trying to catch DH at all! Think about it; of course Jack isn't going to find it scummy that Jack voted for Pie. I don't see how Kov is supposed to snare Jack with his "gambit".

I saw something else that bugged me, as well, when reading Kov in isolation:

It's suspicious he [TL] seem's to know that there's a Godfather that is Scummy but other than that not much.

Although TL speculated about a godfather, that's quite different from KNOWING there's a Godfather. I don't KNOW that there's a godfather. Other townies don't KNOW that there's a Godfather. How do you know that TL is right about the Godfather?

I'm looking at a TL/Kov pair. The wagon on TL starts to gain steam, Kov goes for the bus. Wagon breaks down, TL starts counterwagon on his scumbuddy, then diverts it to DH even though I think it's apparent that DH is making more sense than Kov.

Still voting for TL, because I don't see a scenario where he is town. If the Kovwagon starts up again, though, I have no problem changing.

I'd like to hear more from Jack.

Ortiz seems town to me, which is frustrating since I disagree with most of his conclusions.

Twomz: My post asking you to explain the joke wasn't rhetorical. I know it was a ton of pages ago, but don't ignore when you reread.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Hasch, I read that as Kov saying "DH is still scummy but I'd rather have a Jack lynch" since he says he was expecting a Jack wagon - he doesn't say anything about "catching" people in the second post. And your second point is a bit nitpicky on wording. I can see where you're coming from, though.

That's my point; why would he rather have a Jack lynch if his initial plan was to set a trap for DH? Either the first quote is a lie or the second one is a lie. Everything Kov had said to defend himself from the Kovwagon no longer applies in light of the second quote.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I'll tentatively believe TL's claim for now.

Unvote, Vote: Kov

Tomorrow's the last day of class so expect me to have more free time.

[Haschel Cedricson]

em... could you all maybe say why? quotes etc? cause I can't just say your votes are wrong but you both(buddies?) basically just voted for no reason?

Wait, so we're not wrong?

[Haschel Cedricson]

My preferred order for the lynch is probably TL -> Kov -> Twomz, although I'm aware that there is no way that TL will be lynched today. For a while, I thought the case on Twomz was that he was active lurking, which doesn't seem like enough to overcome my feelings on Kov.

Looking back at Twomz in isolation, I have seen some things that I don't think have been brought up yet.

His posts lack content, and all I've seen him do is pressure Jack for being anti-town, which seems like he's avoiding all the main wagons for either a) being on his scumbuddies or b) not wanting to be on a town lynch wagon.

I don't agree with them. If I did I'd switch over. Right now I think Jack's behavior is the most antitown so far and I'm attempting to mirror him (this post excluded, how is it working?).

We've now had significant wagons on Pie, DH, TL, and Kov. Are you saying that you haven't agreed with any of them?

Here's a specific question for you: If Jack is scum, who are his partners?

Just saying, every time I check the thread I think how funny it would be to toss a hammer if someone gets to L-1. Take that into consideration when waiting til there to claim .

When this was initially posted, I asked Twomz to explain the joke because I didn't get it. I understood what he meant, but I didn't see why it was funny. Anti-town, but not that big of a deal. Then I reread and saw this, which puts it in a new light:

So, I'll just wait for a bandwagon to build and then hammer to end the day.

I don't know how I missed this earlier. One thing I hate in Mafia is when people try to abdicate responsibility for their vote, and this is a textbook example.

Make no mistake, Kov is a better lynch and you should all be ashamed for not voting for him. Twomz has been anti-town, but not necessarily scummy enough that I feel now is the time to lynch him. Those on the Twomzwagon: Convince me to switch.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Has, you DO realize why I've claimed right?

I know that. I'm not going to stop being suspicious of you just because you claim, though.

It's funny how it's always the powerroles that get bandwagoned to the point of claiming first.

[Haschel Cedricson]

HC/Esurio connection is strange. Both pushed TL until he claimed, then both switched to Kov. Both are pushing kov over Twomz for information-purposes which makes me cringe. Both have hardly posted until called out, and their posting styles are similar. Playing a pretty similar game... just something to take note of.

I switched to Kov because I know with the claim a TL lynch isn't going to happen today; leaving my vote would be a waste of time. Also, I haven't said anything about lynching Kov for information-purposes; my vote on Kov is because of his contradictions and actions surrounding his vote for Jack and argument with DH.

[Haschel Cedricson]

No thanks, I prefer to stick to the person who might likely be the roleblocker, I'll hammer DH if he gets to L-1 though

Why do you keep mentioning a roleblocker? Nobody has mentioned such a possibility except for you, and you're treating it as though it were a foregone conclusion.

[Haschel Cedricson]

if there's not a scum roleblocker in this game I will be the happiest person alive because that helps me

It helps all of us.

[Haschel Cedricson]

ok, I can buy that.

unvote

Who's your partner?

Don't answer that, DH.

However, is your partner guaranteed to be town?

[Haschel Cedricson]

I did no such thing. I am not DH's parter, Neighborly, Mafialy, or otherwise.

Now, DH's claim yields some interesting scenarios. I'm thinking out loud here, so forgive me if I forget anything.

Possibility One: DH is lying and is therefore scum. I don't see this scenario being very likely, because sooner or later his scumbuddies would have to pretend to be his neighbors, and that's uneccessary risk this early in the game. Therefore, we go to...

Possibility Two: DH is indeed a Neighbor. Neighbors aren't guaranteed alignment, so now we have three subscenarios:
2a) All of the neighbors are town.
2b) DH is town, and at least one of his neighbors is scum.
2c) DH is a scum neighbor.

If scenario 2a is correct, then I think that makes TheLonging's claim less likely; that would give four townspeople powerroles while leaving nobody but the Mafia for TL to track.

If scenario 2b is correct, then DH can narrow down at least one scum to a small group of people.

Scenario 2c is possible, but I still see Kov and Twomz as better lynches today.

What did I miss here?

[Haschel Cedricson]

ok, I can buy that.

unvote

Who's your partner?

Don't answer that, DH.

However, is your partner guaranteed to be town?

THIS CAME AFTER DH REFUSED, YOU WOULD HAVE SEEN IT ON PREVIEW

Then if I was scumbuddies with DH, wouldn't I have not posted anything after I saw he had already refused and not gotten involved?

[Haschel Cedricson]

I'm partial to 2a myself, but that's partially because I don't believe his claim and 2a lets me keep TL as a major suspect. I think I need to mull it over for a little bit and reread some people in isolation.

[Haschel Cedricson]

So what you think is, 2a is the best scenario because it makes me scum.

wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow

Not quite, I said 2a is what I wanted to believe because it made you scum. I have a bit of a weakness to confirmation bias and I'm trying to acknowledge that.

I just got back from Portland and this thread has exploded. More from me later.

In the meantime, though:

Vote: Deadline Extension

[Haschel Cedricson]

Looking over ortiz, there are a few posts that caught my eye:

Great catch on the contradiction, I'd switch back to kov if I wasn't sure in my DHscum. I'll probably be up for lynching him Day 2.

even though I think it's apparent that DH is making more sense than Kov.

Honestly, before you posted kov's contradiction he was making so much more sense than DH to me.

This strikes me as a bit strange because you imply that after you saw the contradiction, then DH was making more sense than Kov. Wasn't a good deal of the case against DH based on the interchange between Kov and DH? It seems to me like this post is just saying "I acknowledge that I should vote for Kov, but I'm not going to."

HC/Esurio connection is strange. Both pushed TL until he claimed, then both switched to Kov. Both are pushing kov over Twomz for information-purposes which makes me cringe. Both have hardly posted until called out, and their posting styles are similar. Playing a pretty similar game... just something to take note of.

With this post you've now shown suspicion of both of your neighbors (admittedly not a lot of suspicion, but still some.) Ortiz: have you been assuming that one of your partners is definitely scum from the beginning of the game?

It's probably best for us to assume there's a roleblocker.

This quote isn't necessarily scummy, but I don't agree with it.

Btw if all 3 of us are town then the doctor just went from possible ~9 people to ~4 >_>

What, what doctor? I didn't mention a doctor, and neither did anybody else.

I have some more thoughts coming.

[Haschel Cedricson]

EBWOP: I'm aware that none of this proves Ortiz is scum. His response could shed some light on a few things, though.

[Haschel Cedricson]

What do you guys think the chances are of all 3 neighbors being town? Between Esurio's play and just talking to him in the QT, he doesn't come off as scum at all to me. If we lynch either me/Esurio and get a town flip, then the other will probably get lynched tomorrow and its almost conceding the game if we're all town.

I wanted to make a post about this possibility, but DH self-hammered before I could do it. Somebody yesterday said that all three being town would be overpowering, but that's not necessarily true; in fact, that line of thought helped lead to yesterday's mislynch. Esurio seems like he's town to me, and I've reread ortiz several times and I just don't see scum there.

Our failure to lynch Kov yesterday was a travesty. Let's fix that.

Vote: Kov[/vote]

[Haschel Cedricson]

EBWOP: I am retarded.

Vote: Kov

.

[Haschel Cedricson]

With a doc dead and a claimed tracker, though, I'm inclined to believe that one of the neighbors is scum. It'd be too townsided for all three neighbors to be town, even with the paranoia factor, IMO.

That's only if you believe TL's claim, which I don't. ortiz and esurio have been townier than TL.

@TL: Why are you voting Kov? He's getting replaced.

I know this wasn't addressed towards me, but TL already answered and I'm also voting for Kov, so I'll answer anyway. Kov was incredibly scummy yesterday. His replacement is going to come in, we will all ask him "Why was your predecessor scummy?", the replacement will say "I don't get it either, but I'm not scum" and then we'll be back at square 1. If that doesn't happen, then we lynch the replacement for what Kov did and then basically wind up making a player read a 40+ page game for little personal reward.

I want everybody to reread Kov, especially in light of DH being town. I think there's enough there to be comfortable with a lynch.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Acknowledging prod, echoing TL.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I don't know why he's still got his vote on me- I think it's rather suspicious that he went after someone who was clearly not in the game at the moment. Opportunistic, at the least.

He hasn't posted since I have, either.

Way to answer your own question in your second paragraph. Also, I was voting Kov at the end of Day 1, and I voted for Kov at the start of Day 2 before it was announced that he was being replaced. That's hardly opportunistic.

At any rate, your posts are good. Of course, that doesn't make Kov's posts less scummy. I'll unvote you for now, but I'll be watching you like a hawk.

Unvote: Kov/Sebguer

Yes yes as much as I want to lynch Twomz I'd rather lynch people who are likely to RB me, despite the fact that I may have lied about my claim and created a WIFOM pool.

This is the stupidest thing I've read today, and I was reading YouTube comments earlier. This combined with the improbability of your claim, the "voting me for the wrong reasons" thing, your completely unwarrented set-up speculation, your

a priori

assumption of a roleblocker which conveniently has only been confirmed by you to exist, and your play in general yesterday makes me want to vote for you. Everybody else: is there any chance of me convincing you to lynch TL today?

[Haschel Cedricson]

hey Hac: I fakeclaimed cop in SHM3 which I linked before, and guess what? I'm WIFOMing. I'm letting the other PR's not get RB'd, and if I'm a real PR, at least the others will be saved. If I'm VT, then I'm letting the PR's go on smoothly.

Hey Hac, guess what? There are PR's in this game. Do you think there is not a roleblocker?

There could be, but the majority of the games I've played do not have one. Like I said, for you to treat it as a 100% certainty is unsettling.

Also, this "WIFOMing" you're claiming to be doing isn't nearly as effective as you think it is. If the Mafia do not have a roleblocker, then you've already told them that you're not really a powerrole. If there is a roleblocker and they chose to block Fugi last night, then you've already told them that you're not really a powerrole. If you are a tracker, then with the current number of powerroles revealed/claimed any Mafia roleblocker would certainly target you anyways. The only thing your quote about WIFOMing does is provide you a way to deny your earlier claim when you inevitably fail to get a tracking result every night, and that's exactly how it reads.

[Haschel Cedricson]

EBOWP: As long as we're discussing meta, I've pushed for lynching people before they get replaced before when the disappearing player was sufficiently scummy. What now?

[Haschel Cedricson]

If Twomz is telling the truth, then TL is certainly lying.

[Haschel Cedricson]

How so?

Doc, Nurse, three neighbors who all seem town...

A tracker would mean that there are likely only 3 vanilla townies, which seems incredibly low. Also, a doc, a nurse, and an investigative role is overpowered.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Meh I still don't want to lynch TL today.

well its a good thing twomz just got lynched then isnt it

[Haschel Cedricson]

Now can we lynch TheLonging?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Like I said, do not assume that I am scum because town SEEMS (keyword there) overpowered. If anything, it's what you expect from sorasgoof.

also nice job NOT putting your money where your mouth is, let me help you

Vote: Haschel Cedricson

That's not the only reason I think you're scum. Your play has been scummy, and your claim is more and more implausible by the day.

As for me "NOT putting [my] money where my mouth is", yesterday I got yelled at for voting for a person who wasn't here, so when Sorasgoof said you were V/LA with a possibility of replacement, I held off. Since it looks like that's not an issue,

Vote: TheLonging

.

[Haschel Cedricson]

If Twomz is telling the truth, then TL is certainly lying.

I should have quoted this post with the last post, but read it. Haschel: Why do you want me lynched so badly? Is it because I'm playing a way you don't like and feel uncomfortable with? Do you want to go back to your safe zone as playing, where all your little towntells are by the books?

Sorry bud, I know how you feel, I was like that once. I'm not rolling that way though.

If you "know how I feel", then wouldn't that make me less likely to be scum? Why the continued vote on me?

This is rhetorical, by the way.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Last consecutive post, promise:

Also why assume the three neighbors are all town? If anything I'm thinking ortiz MIGHT be scum neighbor.

I'm assuming they are town because ortiz and esurio have been playing in a pro-town fashion. You have not.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Also, I find his insistence on lynching TheLonging scummy - he's a claimed PR. Like I said yesterday, today is not the day.

Today is not yesterday. We're running out of days.

[Haschel Cedricson]

sorasgoof put a poisoner in a newbie game.

Please don't rule out anything he could do[...]

[...] Since I know his mod meta (aka like me putting a miller in almost every game I make), then why would you assume he WOULDN'T overpower town? In the last game I played with him as mod, he had tracker, doctor, and watcher I believe, and for mafia, a poisoner, a godfather, and a roleblocker.

I want to address this, since I think the high concentration of Scorehero players is affecting this game and making it difficult for some people to understand where I'm coming from. This is sorasgoof's first modded game on MafiaScum. Different sites have differing standards of what is considered "normal". I assume that sorasgoof wouldn't overpower the town because this website places a great deal of emphasis on balance and on powerroles supplementing instead of defining the game. In the queue, sorasgoof said that this set-up had been reviewed. On the first page, sorasgoof states that mith had questions about the ruleset, which implies to me that mith was the one who did the reviewing.

I have faith that this game is balanced. I think TL is trying to play the way he does at Scorehero and is using those assumptions to make what he thinks should be a good fakeclaim. The problem is, it doesn't fit the parameters that this particular game is supposed to fall into. Er, into which this game is supposed to fall. The only way I see TL being town is if one of the other neighbors is scum. Does anybody really have a strong case on Ortiz? Why should we lynch Esurio today?

The answer to the former is "Not that I can see," and the answer to the latter is "We shouldn't."

Maybe I'm wrong. Perhaps Esurio is playing this town like a harp from Hell. But I don't see it.

Right now I'm going to get dinner. Later tonight, expect a wall of text reiterating exactly why TL is scum.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Vanilla townie.

I'm going to guess TL, Seb, Pie.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Hasch:

e_e

I don't get it.

Anyway, I've been quicklynched. Game over, man.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Such a strong town and the mafia STILL pulled out a win. The win rate, I read, for a Doc/Tracker game in which the mafia has three members, one being a roleblocker, is around 30%. I thought for sure including a Nurse would bump up the town's chances. I took the risk of it being unbalanced (though I don't really think it was, to be honest), and it still didn't work out.

Not that I was rooting for the town by any means, I just wanted a game the town would have a better chance of winning compared to many past games.

Adding the nurse actually hurt the chances, because after Twomz was revealed, there was no way I could believe TL's claim. I had Kov pegged, and I had started to make rudimentary connections between Kov and Ortiz that I ignored once I started tunnelling.

Sorry, everyone. This was mostly my fault.