Mini 999 - Isolated Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #350 (ISO) » Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:52 pm

Post by TheButtonmen »

DavidParker wrote:@everyone: In these 12 players games, is it more common to have 3 scum or 2 scum? I remember seeing a thread in MD about how 3 scum in these 12 players games is imba, and scum have like a 70% win ratio recently or something. Mostly bringing it up because our perfect game might be complete today if my result is true!
Irrelevant thing to speculate on at this time.
DavidParker wrote:Hey guys, last night I checked Michel (not Michael :p) and got a scum result.
Vote: Michel
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Post Post #351 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:59 am

Post by chauchaudotcom »

Votecount:

It takes six to lynch!


Voting

DavidParker (1): MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart (4): Copper, nopointinactingup, DavidParker, TheButtonmen


Not Voting

don_johnson, AWA, Oso, My Milked Eek, AGar

The deadline is in
16
days, August 08, 2010 at 10:00pm PST.
Last edited by chauchaudotcom on Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #352 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 5:24 am

Post by don_johnson »

DavidParker wrote:Hey guys, last night I checked Michel (not Michael :p) and got a scum result.

vote: michel
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Post Post #353 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 5:31 am

Post by TheButtonmen »

L-1
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Post Post #354 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 5:43 am

Post by AWA »

Wow, that was fast. L-1 before I ever get a chance to check in.

I'm slightly suspicious of David's "investigation" of Michel, especially as Michel was one of the primary proponents of David's lynch toward the end of D1, and as Michel voted David earlier today (OMGUS?).

That said, Michel's play slipped a bit toward the end of D1... as Oso pointed out, a definite case could be made against Michel, which I would like to examine today.

(Belatedly) welcome, don_johnson!

npau, would you please elaborate on your Post #336?

To sum up:

I have a 5% scum read on David, and a 3% scum read on Michel.
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Post Post #355 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 5:56 am

Post by don_johnson »

^^ why no vote?
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Post Post #356 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:20 am

Post by AWA »

If you've read the thread, you would know that I'm much more cautious with my vote. It's a weapon which can potentially kill, to be used with finesse, not like a cudgel.
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Post Post #357 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:55 am

Post by DavidParker »

5% scum read on me and 3% scum read on Michel?!?!?!? i guess that makes us the least scummy players in the game AWYAAAWA because as it is tere are only 10 players left so assuming 3 scum, theres a 1/5 chance a randmoly chosen player is scum (ie: 20%.. ) so where did these strong town-reads of both of us come from?G?G Anywans im a bit drunk just go thome.

but


FOS : AWA


Although would love to see wher emy investigation of michel leads.
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Post Post #358 (ISO) » Fri Jul 23, 2010 8:51 am

Post by Oso »

I'd like to hear a claim and defense out of Michel before hammer (which I am willing to do, make no mistake). Honestly here though, I'd like to hear some more thoughts of folks before we end the day. This is shaping up to be a quick day.

Some thoughts of my own that are related to Michel.
Michel-ISO 2(Post 32) wrote:....
I personally have a feeling that scum was trying to lengthen the time they had for discussion.
I know for sure that MME was rather slow confirming, and he also didn't post in the game thread pre-game. Definately wants time to talk to his buddies before exposing himself in here.
[/b]Vote: My Milked Eek[/b].
...
Screl-ISO 0(Post 8) wrote:Hello all.

AWA -
I have never played before
but it would only make sense to have to have 7 people vote to lynch someone on day one. Otherwise there could be 6 votes for person A and 6 votes for person B which would result in a double lynch.... unless we could are able to do that :shock:
I made some fairly off the wall leaps (game)yesterday that seem to have panned out some so I figured what the hell, I'll go with it.

Michel's right. Scum were trying to delay the game. They had a brand new player that they had to give a crash course in playing Mafia. Note: he votes his scum buddy there in the process.

Why do I think MME is his buddy?

Michel hits MME in his first vote and because of the discussion that follows between him and Agar, I know it's a serious vote. But it's not going to go anywhere, Michel knows it, so why not hit your buddy with that vote. (Admittedly, that IS weak).

And these:
MME-ISOs 7/8(Posts 310/311) wrote:(ISO 7/Post 310)
That was a hammer?

I'm glad to see screl getting lynched.
That oso is probably town from that one post on top of this page, while I do not really like nopoint's double standards towards lurkers being town or scum. But whatever floats his boat, I guess.
As for DP's claim; I do not really like it, but there's no way we're lynching a claimed cop today.

..
(ISO 8/Post 311)
Oh wait, I didn't read this page, lol. No hammer I guess.

Might be back with some thoughts.

Oh and that "top of the page" is obviously previous page.
It's obvious Screl is toast and it's going to happen quickly at this point yet he doesn't hammer even after he states he's glad to see Screl getting lynched. His vote never comes off David despite him flatly stating that David is a no-lynch for the day.

Conclusion, MME is scum with Screl. States all through the day yesterday that he is certain David/Screl are scum but doesn't hammer. No biggie there from his perspective as it is obvious that Screl is going to be lynched and there is no reason to be the hammer on Screl because he(MME) is under no suspicion at this time and being the hammer might draw unwanted attention to himself. His play in the game so far has been to stay off the radar.

Michel is scum with Screl. Michel throws out this off the wall thing about scum trying to delay the game start to get more time to talk and he's absolutely right. He knows they are because he and MME have to shove as much Mafia knowledge as they can, into Screl before comms are shut down for the day if they have any hope of him surviving Day 1.

Michel is scum with MME because of their connection through Screl.

To quote MME
Also, I found some scum. I know, awesome wrapped in a can: Screl,
and Davidparker
Michel Sableheart and My Milked Eek. Have fun lynching them.
Fixed the quote there for you MME, you must have got in a hurry and misspoke yourself there.
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Post Post #359 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 12:48 am

Post by AGar »

Umm.... just a question:

Has anyone considered the possibility DP not being a sane cop? ANYONE?

I really don't like how many people took DP's result as the complete truth and just jumped onto the bandwagon.

Every case I see now on Michel is pure confirmation bias.

I'm withholding my vote until Michel comes up with some sort of explanation.

Also, don_johnson's 338 is off. Very off.

VOTE: AWA

For being consistently hesitant and non-committal without good reasons to be. His disposition against bandwagons reeks of scum trying to avoid being on mislynches, and his wanting to wait on voting Michel has nothing to do with the potential sanity of DP, but rather the fact that he find it suspicious that DP got a guilty on a player who was against him. If DP just lied about a guilty, you ever think that that might be a 1-for-1 type deal?
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Post Post #360 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 1:32 am

Post by nopointinactingup »

It's not we believe it's the truth, it's we want to know the truth and the only way of knowing the truth is to a Michel flip. If Michel flips town, we lynch DP as you are campaigning for.
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Post Post #361 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 3:55 am

Post by Oso »

AGar wrote:..
Has anyone considered the possibility DP not being a sane cop? ANYONE?
..
Yes, I have. And if you (or anyone) can up with a way to determine that without lynching someone, I'm all ears.
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Post Post #362 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 4:32 am

Post by Oso »

AGar wrote:..
Every case I see now on Michel is pure confirmation bias.

I'm withholding my vote until Michel comes up with some sort of explanation.
..
Forgot that I wanted to address this as well.

I agree with the first and strongly with the second.

Part of the connection I got with MME in my post before last came from an assumption that Michel is guilty and looking at his posts in that light. So you may very well have a point there at least in my connecting up MME to Michel through Screl and perhaps even connecting Michel to Screl at all by the comments he made at the beginning of the game.

I stand by my analysis of yesterday though and Michel's attack on DP. His attack on DP after his RC doesn't hang together in my opinion. The post where I laid out my reasons is here for anyone who wants a re-look, I don't want to retype a wall post word for word.

And yes, I also want to hear from Michel as well. We let David live yesterday because that was the smart play and, for myself at least, having made that decision the best recourse is to assume David was and is telling the truth and treat any results he gets as genuine and act accordingly until we have proof that his results are hosed either through sanity or lying.

But I don't like to hammer anyone without giving them a chance to at defense.
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Post Post #363 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 4:37 am

Post by TheButtonmen »

AGar wrote: Has anyone considered the possibility DP not being a sane cop? ANYONE?

I really don't like how many people took DP's result as the complete truth and just jumped onto the bandwagon.
It's not taking his word as blind truth but the best possible play with known information, worst comes to worse and he's lying scum then we go 1 for 1 which is a good trade for town.
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Post Post #364 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 4:42 am

Post by TheButtonmen »

AWA wrote:I have a 5% scum read on David, and a 3% scum read on Michel.
What exactly do you mean by this?

Not sure I'm understanding it correctly.
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Post Post #365 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 6:35 am

Post by AGar »

Mmm. I'm not saying lynching Michel is the wrong play. I just don't like how everyone's been feeding out of DP's hand. Everyone was just willing to pile on votes until Michel wound up dead. Don_Johnson's #355 is a prime example. His is the most troubling, because he is essentially goading AWA to hammer Michel before many people have posted and before Michel gets in here and is given any chance to explain this. I don't think DP's FoS on AWA is about his reluctance to hammer, but rather his very weird "5% and 3% scum reads on DP and MS."

Otherwise, carry on.

I'm interested to see what Copper has to say about this, and more interested in what MS is going to offer up. Buddies, maybe?
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Post Post #366 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 6:46 am

Post by DavidParker »

Yeah, I was simply put off by such a forced comment by AWA... Saying he is 5% of 3% scum reads on us, is saying he has a strong town read on us!?!? I think it was more bad wording/grammar, but it could be a slip-up.

I agree that we shouldn't rush into lynching Michel, the reason I put my vote there right away is because I have more information than everyone else and KNOW I'm the cop, and thus, want to push a lynch on Michel. I think chances are I'm more likely a sane cop than a non-sane cop, and I'm aware if it turns out I'm not a sane-cop it's probably my head tomorrow, but hopefully I can get a useful result tonight as well.

Anyways, Michel's actions yesterday also, to some extent, seem quite scummy. As don_johnson said, there's almost definitely 1 scum in the 3 people screl FoS'd.
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Post Post #367 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 7:41 am

Post by AGar »

DavidParker wrote:I think chances are I'm more likely a sane cop than a non-sane cop, and I'm aware if it turns out I'm not a sane-cop it's probably my head tomorrow, but hopefully I can get a useful result tonight as well.
Regardless, we don't know until he flips, and sadly, even then, it's not 100% assured. We know you're not naive, but hopefully you aren't random or paranoid, so your result tomorrow can be at least somewhat useful.

I may have a plan for us if Michel doesn't flip scum. Gotta go over the logistics a few more times.
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Post Post #368 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 8:02 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

I'll try to once again explain my reasoning when pushing for the DP lynch yesterday.

DavidParker was under a lot of suspicion yesterday, and rightly so. He was at L-1, with two players willing to hammer. They weren't even waiting for his claim, but for inactives to show up. The only way David has available for saving himself is claiming a powerrole at that point. This made it extremely likely that he was lying, simply because cops are far rarer then mafia. The fact that he also has a tendency to fakeclaim as vanilla town further reduced the chance of him actually being a cop. With the chance that he was a cop being neglectable compared to the chance that he was mafia, lynching him didn't have a lot of risk and a good chance of getting a high reward.

Furthermore, there was scrells behaviour towards him. I believed that if Screll is mafia, he would only behave like he did towards a scumbuddy. This means that there were only three options I could see possible: both mafia, screll town David mafia, or both town. The way I saw it, if we lynched screll, we would have to lynch David later in the game no matter what screll flipped. This would mean 0 mislynches if both were scum, 1 mislynch if screll was town and david mafia, and 2 mislynches if both were town. On the other hand, if we lynched David first, it would be 0, 1 and 1 mislynches respectively (because david flipping town would tell us that screll was town). This made lynching David before Screll the correct play.

However, when it became clear that a David lynch wouldn't be happening, I switched to my second top suspect.



With many players being inclined to disbelieve his claim, getting a mislynch out of his claim is about the best possible result David can hope for. If he didn't come up with a guilty, there was a very significant chance that he would be the lynch either today or tomorrow at the latest. And what better target for a fake guilty then a stronger player who is already under some suspicion?

Seriously, David's play fits fakeclaiming scum perfectly, and all other evidence points towards him being scum too. Are fakeclaiming scum really so uncommon that you are willing to reward even the most suspicious fakeclaims with a mislynch?

If you all insist, at least you won't have to worry about mislynching a powerrole. I'm just vanilla.



@Don_johnson: why the hurry of seeing me lynched?
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Post Post #369 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 8:03 am

Post by Oso »

I'd also like to add a comment to AGar's as well.

Without trying to get a WIFOM argument going, think on this some. Why did they(yes, I'm going to go ahead and assume for the time being we have 3 man scum team) let a claimed cop live and get a result to boot?

I'm willing to believe at this moment that Michel is going to flip scum and with the play yesterday, making a call that Michel would be David's investigation is not that far a stretch.

That is the question that his bugging me since David showed up with an investigation. Showed up alive but blocked makes sense. Dead makes sense. Alive but lying scum that is going to take a townie down with him makes sense (and that is already covered by Buttons in his last post).

Alive but scum and bussing his partner with the investigation is one and if that's the case, that can be dealt with fairly simply.

Alive but town and with an investigation on scum? <-That is really bugging me. Points to some deep thinking and a fair amount of balls on scum's part (predicting that David would investigate Michel isn't a big stretch, in my opinion, but committing to course of action based on that guess...) and would be almost flat impossible to see without some sort of connection to either in-game.
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Post Post #370 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:07 am

Post by don_johnson »

it seems i have been misunderstood. AWA claimed to have a larger(5%) scumread on davidparker as opposed to his 3% on michel. dp is in no danger of being lynched, so i was asking him "why you no vote dp?" sorry if that was construed as "goading" or being in a "hurry".

frankly, we have a guilty result on a player. i don't play around with "sanity" issues. i lynch "guilty" parties. if they flip otherwise, then i address other options. so whatever.

Agar: please explain what is "off" about my post.
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Post Post #371 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:23 am

Post by TheButtonmen »

@Oso:
Agree with you about the David situation, I was 100% expecting him to be dead, "blocked" or return an innocent. However until we see Micheal's flip I can't think of a way short of lynching David to see his flip. On that note how crazy do I sound when I say I'm kinda tempted to lynch David first then use his flip to make up my mind about Micheal?
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Post Post #372 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 10:09 am

Post by Oso »

Not crazy at all. But I'm still in favor of the Michel lynch over DP. I gave him the benefit of my doubt yesterday so for my part, I'ma follow through on that once discussion for the day is done.

One reason I haven't hammered yet after Michel's defense and RC, is to get some more discussion out there. I have no hesitation about hammering Michel save that it ends the day.

What I wanted to do is get people thinking a bit. Even if there ends up being no discussion. We only had one kill last night and I couldn't get anything myself on trying to analyse that other than it looks as if we
MIGHT NOT
(emphasized because one night is a thin base to start with) have any other types of killing roles (town or scum) other than mafia. The NK of Espe, who struck me as a careful and methodical player but not one who was any specific danger to anyone just a danger to scum in general, looks to me like a random shot to frustrate analysis.

AND

Based on a (very loose) stab at what might be the setup, who a likely third scum member might be.

When we flip Michel, then we can decide what (if anything) is to be done about David as regards to his cop claim and with another night to analyze make a better estimate of the game set-up. At least that is my thinking at the moment.
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Post Post #373 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 3:50 pm

Post by AWA »

I would have thought that I was being fairly straightforward; I am more suspicious of David than Michel. David is trying to twist my words,
yet again
, in an all-out effort to make me look bad. As for the statistics? They mean nothing. All they were supposed to convey were my respective suspicion levels against David and Michel. To be perfectly clear, neutral is 0%, town is -100%, and scum is 100%.
AGar wrote:For being consistently hesitant and non-committal without good reasons to be. His disposition against bandwagons reeks of scum trying to avoid being on mislynches, and his wanting to wait on voting Michel has nothing to do with the potential sanity of DP, but rather the fact that he find it suspicious that DP got a guilty on a player who was against him. If DP just lied about a guilty, you ever think that that might be a 1-for-1 type deal?
I'm not sure what you expect me to say to this; you're essentially voting for me because of my playstyle. I have said before, I will say again, and I will not change on this stance, that I am in general a cautious player, unlike you, who apparently wants everybody to attackattackattack without thinking. Is it such a bad thing for me to not vote until I am convinced of, construct, and argue a case?

You seem to be quite convinced that your sanity argument is the
only
argument; I point out that you seem to believe that the only reason that anyone would not vote Michel is that they're concerned about David's sanity. I don't see how being suspicious that David got a guilty result on someone who is targeting him is, in and of itself, suspicious. That said, your unreasonable suspicion of my suspicion is suspicious.
FOS: AGar

-----

Concerning the Michel or David issue, I think that if it came down to it, Michel is the better lynch. If Michel is anything other than scum, as David claims, then David is unreliable (or scum) and can be lynched. If Michel is, in fact, guilty, then David gets the benefit of the doubt for at least one more day, pending his N2 "investigation" (can't rule out the possibility of blind luck, or bussing).

However, if we lynch David, then even if he were correct, and Michel is scum, we'd lynch Michel D3 and have zero information from a potential PR. Slim though the chance may be, assuming David is indeed a cop, and if for some reason the scum let him live, then we'd have another night's worth of information. I admit that this is an unlikely outcome, but its chance is greater than zero, which is what our odds are if we lynch David first.

This is simply the cold, analytical approach. Personally, I would like a David lynch, as I am extremely unconvinced of his claim, and his behavior is unreliable and slightly anti-town (he seems to be the proverbial person lashing out and clinging to whatever he finds, exemplified in posts #357 and #366.

Lingering on #366 for a second, it strikes me as odd that a claimed cop would hesitate to lynch someone they have a guilty verdict on. I understand the implications of sanity...but wouldn't a guilty result, sane or not, be worth lynching? If nothing else, you discover your own sanity and can then report the opposite of what you find, if you are in fact insane.
Last edited by chauchaudotcom on Sat Jul 24, 2010 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #374 (ISO) » Sat Jul 24, 2010 3:51 pm

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Mod, please fix my tags.

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