When making reads, I really hate meta, so I will just take this game in isolation as playstyles change. Of the three main wagons, nothing's going to change with RC, and even though he is very scummy, lynching him won't give any information to go on when tomorrow dawns, and hopefully if we have a vig he gets killed so we don't have to waste a lynch.
In terms of Alpha Werewolf/Rhinox, I don't see any actual opinions being formed anywhere, other than a discussion of semantics in 406 that reads like WIFOM to me. I still can't wrap my mind around the reason for Alpha Werewolf voting right before replacing out, but overall he's not as scummy or as useful a lynch as the final wagonee, SharkFinn, who has actually had votes this game that will provide useful analysis.
He begins by instantly wagoning on Tasky using the vague "double standards" reasoning, then a minute later pushes for his quick lynch. Early on Day 2, it seems he is trying to get people to jump on the Tasky-wagon and hopefully get a quicklynch so we won't have any information heading into D2, which he immediately gets gandalf5166 to follow on. Even though he was pushing for the lynch, he then instantly started moving away, stating that he'd move off the wagon after he hears from Tasky in Iso2, and that he already had intentions to jump off the wagon if it got closer, even trying to deflect over to Longingtown for explanation as to why the wagon started.
He only had a single vote on him at that point, yet instantly started deflecting when the slightest question was asked of him. Someone wants to distance himself from any and all possibility of being viewed as scum. Hello, scum.
In Iso5, he opens up a can of WIFOM with his "Personally, I'd rather be on the Prob Town list, but that's just a sane villager PoV", in addition to calling Zang out for pinging players as he's currently bandwagon jumping. After another vote on by Karma, he backs off instantaneously again in Iso8, but leaves open the possibility of jumping back on if the bandwagon starts getting rolling.
His information in his read on gandalf in Iso11 is mostly craplogic, specifically his first four points, including his "BIG SCUM READ!!!". Enlighten me if I'm being dense here, but how is someone reacting to a neutral tell with faux-sadness such an obvious scumtell?
On day 2, he continues his tunneling even though Gandalf died trying to start back up his wagon. I find this aspect of this post scummier than the voting for dead people that others have pointed out. He doesn't even bother analyzing what the flip means or even what the hammer tells us, he just goes back to his previous information, possibly because he didn't get anyone countering his analysis, and goes back to trying to hide once he realizes he voted a dead neutral. The Preemptive FOS he gives in Iso15 is
entirely
pointless, putting an FOS on Karma only if RC flips scum. He then flips again, stating that RC is leaning on twn in his very next post, following CKD, and that the RC wagon isn't great in 17, though he FOSed RC previously.
In 21-23, he states that Empking is scum just because he's lurking, even though there "isn't much here overall to work with". Just the fact that he's lurking along with two gut votes does not make a valid reason to vote someone D2. There is much more information and many more players that are scummier that are more deserving of a vote. He finally flips again to either Tasky or RC, yet in his re-read he switches his final decision to Rhinox since it was getting to be a popular wagon again.
Overall, SharkFinn has given very little useful information of his own, gets overly defensive whenever someone votes him or disagrees with him (continuing even with his most recent 487) and keeps jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon based on popularity. He is by far the most useful lynch today.
tl;dr:
VOTE: SharkFinn as it will give us the most information after the flip. L-2.
It seems I can't make short posts. Sorry about that.
