Open 236 - Pamplona Mafia (C9++) Game Over

[ekiM]

Is there any functional difference to that rule change?

Yes. Under the old rule 21, three players alive would require three votes to lynch. Slightly problematic. ~~NS

It's actually slightly less than 50% chance of an SK now (27 + 16 + .8). I foresee fun outguessing the RNG coming later in the game.

VOTE: vote: kyle99. Please don't lurk and flake this game.

[ekiM]

The question marks could be any legal character, including V..

yabba, why no vote?

[ekiM]

@mod

--- normal wording would be "half rounded down plus one", I guess...

@yabba - From experience, games where people vote early and start bandwagons get going quicker. It rarely hurts.

What's a semi-random vote? You've got a semi-reason you don't want to share, yet you chastised Alduskkel for the same thing. Huh?

[ekiM]

@yabba: I'm not asking for completely random votes and no other conversation. I think discussion generally gets off the ground faster if complemented by votes, and that 'real' votes come more quickly if we start throwing out votes right away.

Anyway, I still don't get your semi-random vote. You're annoyed at me so you're voting me? Sounds like a random vote. Unless there's more in the "full explanation" (don't get that, either---what's worth holding back at this point?).

---

Oh, and as for my math...

P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

A = Even number of Ts = 0, 2, 4, or 6 Ts
B = Two non-Ts revealed = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 Ts.
A and B = 0, 2, or 4 Ts.

Can't work this out exactly as the numbers given in the setup are inaccurate (not quite summing to 1). However the distribution of Ts is clearly not symmetric if you chop off the top two possibilities, so P(0,2,4) / P(0,1,2,3,4,5) is not going to be 0.5.

[ekiM]

Before anyone answers, does anyone disagree with asking everyone what their policy is on shooting N0 as a vig?

I see big help to mafia and minimal help to town. So, disagree.

No, I don't disagree.

This seems blatantly anti-town.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Netlava

There's really no reason for the SK and mafia not to shoot every night.

Not quite true. SK might be trying to hide themselves, and there are corner cases where mafia might not want to kill (4 player LYLO?).

Al, provide a reason for your vote on me.

I eenie meenie miney moed.

Doesn't match up.

Before anyone answers, does anyone disagree with asking everyone what their policy is on shooting N0 as a vig?

What if someone says they would shoot N0? That lowers the probability that they're a Vig and makes the Mafia's job of finding power roles easier.

Good point.

vote Alduskkel

This seems like a serious vote, so can you explain it clearly. What doesn't match up about what Alduskkel said? What's suspect about his good point?

The big beef I have is that the random votes themselves, save for Newbie games where there's always an L-2 freakout bound to happen, is that nothing transparent ever comes out of those votes alone. Usually, yes, it's someone doing something else controversial apart from that.

Yeah, I picked a random argument that's rather trivial and saw how people reacted to it, and that being that you thinking RVS was going to help was nowhere near the mark. What do I learn:

-you're quite reasoned and level-headed
-Alduskkel has a rather impatient temper in this game, which is fascinating.
-Ythan is content to actively ignore the debate altogether. Also fascinating.
-Zajnet is reasoned when defending that same opinion I find very, very wrong. Not afraid to weigh in.

We'll see where it goes from there. That's why I inhibited the reasons, so I could get more reactions.

OK.

Your math is still off but I need to go now. Look up boy/girl paradox on wikipedia or I'l explain later.

[ekiM]

I had a problem with Netlava's unthinking response to Ythan. I thought maybe Ythan was looking for that but apparently not. Ythan, why did you think it was pro-town to figure out who might be what power role? Why are you disputing that Aduskkel voted you randomly? How could you possibly know? What is it that makes you think dr was being disingenuous? Saying "you're scum because you're disingenuous" is question begging. Scum are the only ones with a reason to be disingenuous.

All this arguing over who was or wasn't active lurking seems pointless.

Zajnet unvoting his random vote is no good. Do something.

I have no idea why dr can't use the search function if he actually cares about meta.

People can stop talking about digging ditches and usernames and other irrelevant stuff.

[ekiM]

Sorry for not posting, I had an important meeting this morning I've been working my arse off for.

I don't think there's actually a scum motivation for being obnoxious, so I don't see the attacks on Ythan. More later.

[ekiM]

More the way he's made a massive wall of text, a lot of which seems to be irrelevant or trivial. Please, please, please try and trim and focus on what's important. It's impossible to read a post like that and get anything useful out of it.

[ekiM]

[Fonz]'s case on Beefster seems very contrived.

How so specifically?

Not knowing what active lurking means isn't a scum tell, but I think some of the other things Fonz has been saying could be.

The fact that he bothered to differentiate between the 2 is what bothers me.

Why does that bother you?

@drmyshottyizsik: Just curious, did you "meta" me btw?

yep

Which games did you read? What conclusions did you draw?

1) You kinda contradicted yourself there, saying it was Ythan who was too lazy to go back and quote himself. That implies that the answers were there, and therefore Ythan was in the right.

^Misinterpretation. It happens. I can't read minds either.

The thought process I went through was this:
-He claims he answered the questions, which I'm not seeing.
-If he thought he answered the questions, why didn't he go back and quote what he thought to be the answer?
-He covers it up by labeling it as spoonfeeding to quote the answer he claims to have.
-I see this as hiding something because he refused to answer a question clearly.

Can you give an example of what he might be hiding?

[Ythan attacked] a totally non-threatening random vote. It got the activity going, but that's not necessarily pro-town.

How can getting activity going be anti-town?

[ekiM]

Deadline is a week away, by the way.

My playstyle isn't anti-town in any obvious functions. Except:

I do not role claim at L-1 unless sure of a hammer

.

How is that anti-town? Seems like SOP to me...

However, Ythan and his immediate suspicion of Al's random vote still confuses me. It could suggest several things.

Such as?

Why leave this statement hanging, seriously. You're implying it's potentially scummy without saying so. Why?

The point is that I see you as town, but some questions still remain. These need not be asked atm.

And again. What questions remain?

1) You kinda contradicted yourself there, saying it was Ythan who was too lazy to go back and quote himself. That implies that the answers were there, and therefore Ythan was in the right.

^Misinterpretation. It happens. I can't read minds either.

The thought process I went through was this:

-He claims he answered the questions, which I'm not seeing.
-If he thought he answered the questions, why didn't he go back and quote what he thought to be the answer?
-He covers it up by labeling it as spoonfeeding to quote the answer he claims to have.
-I see this as hiding something because he refused to answer a question clearly.

Can you give an example of what he might be hiding?

Reasons, true intentions. Specifically, the real reason he asked the Vig question.

For example

? Getting really bored of people answering things in an unhelpful way.

[Ythan attacked] a totally non-threatening random vote. It got the activity going, but that's not necessarily pro-town.

How can getting activity going be anti-town?

I never said anti-town. Scum may want to provoke activity more along the lines of flinging accusations or causing accusations to be flung. Not all icebreakers are pro-town.

Or perhaps being a village idiot as town thus making the rest of the town fling accusations at you. That gets the activity going, doesn't it? And I would call it anti-town. (This case is not applicable. It's just to prove a point.)

OK, point taken that being a village idiot wouldn't be helpful. I don't understand how "provoking activity by flinging accusations" is a bad thing, even if they're fairly weak sauce. That's exactly what people should be doing at the start of the game. I also don't understand what scum motive you're imputing here.

Back from vacation. Need to catch up a fair bit. Just reached the stupid stuff over my random vote. Point is, I closed my eyes and pointed. Then I eenie meenie miney moed, changing my finger position each time.

I can't deny this, but I don't believe you. It seems like you backtracked to cover your contradiction. You can't change my mind about this.

If you think he's straight-up lying you should think he's scum, as town have no reason to lie. So why aren't you voting him?

Why would I lie about a random vote?

I have my thoughts.

Seriously, this is absurd. If you have an explanation of how something is scummy, why not give it?

Are you asking why you'd lie about a random vote as if it's preposterous for a player to do that? If not then word your question better.

HEY, you know what you could've done in the SAME AMOUNT OF TIME it took you to write this? Give an example of why someone might lie about a random vote, if you can think of one. That'd be 10* more useful.

[ekiM]

[Fonz]'s case on Beefster seems very contrived.

How so specifically?

Not knowing what active lurking means isn't a scum tell, but I think some of the other things Fonz has been saying could be.

The fact that he bothered to differentiate between the 2 is what bothers me.

Why does that bother you?

@drmyshottyizsik: Just curious, did you "meta" me btw?

yep

Which games did you read? What conclusions did you draw?

Answers on a postcard.

[ekiM]

I think talking about those things would constitute as rolefishing, and help the mafia. Do you disagree?

I asked...

How is not claiming until someone threatens a hammer anti-town?
What things could Ythan's suspicion of Al suggest?
What questions "remain but don't need to be asked yet".
Why aren't you voting someone you believe to be scum?
What are your thoughts about Ald possibly lying about his RV?

I don't see how those are rolefishing.

Because, really, can't you guess why scum might "randomly" vote a player on the Day after N0?

What I

think

you're insinuating is that Alduskkel might be the mafia spy cryptically communicating his result and epically slipping when Ythan brought unbearable pressure by asking him why he was voting for him. Seems fairly implausible. If he really did have something to hide he'd be more careful, no? Also his vote for Ythan looks like a pretty crappy cipher if it is one (how's it indicating the exact result?).

Why insinuate this rather than saying it (if I'm right about what the hell it is you're trying to say..)? How does saying this tell scum anything at all they wouldn't already know?

The case on Al isn't currently strong enough to get him lynched today. And there's more than one scum. I'd rather have a known scum alive N1 than an unknown one; this game has a vig in it.

So you think Ald is "known scum" but you're not even trying to convince anyone else of this? In fact you're specifically holding back the reasons why you think this (I think..), to the extent that I only just worked them out myself.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Prox

[ekiM]

I am puzzled by Prox. I'm not sure why he'd think it was a good idea to hide his ideas and yet still hint at them. However I'm even less sure of the idea that this is all an elaborate scum ruse.

drmyshotty's move to beef is very bad. Putting someone on a scum list because they're under suspicion? Pretty much the definition of bad bandwagoning. Also setting himself up to move back to Netlava tomorrow.

Also: The way he's talked about meta the whole game feels more like he's a weak scum who thought it'd be clever to pretend he was reading meta, than someone who's actually given a shit. He couldn't answer which games he read, or what conclusions he drew or why in any meaningful detail.

And: his lame "follow other people, phone-in inane scumhunting" style thoughout the game.

UNVOTE: Prox
VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

[ekiM]

I generally find I'm not willing enough to lynch VIs.

[ekiM]

I'm thinking backup doc is not a tempting fakeclaim for scum because there's only about a 50% chance the setup rolled any Ds at all, and if there were none then that would become apparent sooner or later. Obviously if someone else claims to be backup doc or part of a 3-man masonry we should do what Zajent says. Otherwise, I think we don't want to lynch dr today.

I'm not counter-claiming.

Looking at other lynches...

[ekiM]

I don't think the Ythan case is good. I know what he did at the start makes little sense as town, but it also makes little sense as scum. What would scum-Ythan hope to gain from asking that question? That nobody else would notice the anti-town consequences? I don't see it.

---

Dry-Fit really has done almost nothing this game. Look at his ISO. 8 posts.

1 random vote.
4 posts about Ythan starting at post 89, after other people had asked basically all the same stuff.
Asks me "what are your stances". Says he still suspect Ythan. Asks TheFonz about the way he started the game.
Says his Fonz question is moot. Reiterates Ythan. Doesn't like dr's vote on beef (but does nothing about it).
Asks if Fonz thinks he's scum for voting him. Says he believes Ythan is trying to scumhunt.

So. He's spent most of his very few postings repeating stuff other people said already about Ythan. He made very minor questions/comments towards three other people. And he thinks his top suspect is trying to scumhunt.

UNVOTE: drmyshottyizsik
VOTE: Dry-fit

[ekiM]

Bizarre. Ythan appears to be trying to scumhunt as far as I can tell.

If Ythan is trying to scumhunt, then that means you think he's town, right?

Ythan himself said scum would pretend to scumhunt.

It sounds more like you forgot that you're pretending to find Ythan highly suspicious.

4 posts about Ythan starting at post 89, after other people had asked basically all the same stuff.

Not really. I don't think anyone questioned Ythan's motive for asking the question before me, which I found odd.

Uhh, so that's one positive contribution to the game in two and a half weeks of play. You really don't seem very inquisitive.

Ready to lynch this guy now.

[ekiM]

Alduskkel

- No complaints.

Beefster

- No complaints.

drmyshottyizsik

- Plenty of questionable stuff but I don't think we should lynch that claim today.

Dry-fit

- "Ythan appears to be trying to scumhunt as far as I can tell." still doesn't sound like something a townie would say about a suspect. And a major lack of scumhunting.

Prox/kyle99

- His weird theory on Ythan and attempt to hide it seems more likely to come from a townie.

Netlava

- Still think his response to Ythan's question bad.

The Fonz

- No complaints.

yabbaguy

- No complaints.

Ythan

- Reads as town to me. Still haven't seen what the scum motivation is for asking his question. "What would scum-Ythan hope to gain from asking that question? That nobody else would notice the anti-town consequences?"

Zajnet

- Agree with what The Fonz said recently.

---

Top choice still Dry Fit. Would support Zajnet or Netlava. Will be online near deadline if I need to switch vote to make lynch.

[ekiM]

I can definitely be online right up to deadline, so we should wait. Even if there's no time to switch to someone else at least he can claim any results he might have from N0.

Alduskkel, why not move to Dry-Fit for now?

Ythan would you prefer Beefster or Dry-Fit?

Btw can some1 put a post in the vla thread 4 me? My computer died, am posting from phone. may be a day or 2 before back online properly.

Done.

[ekiM]

Unvote

.

Vote: Beefster

.

[ekiM]

Ythan was a cop. Yesterday he directly attacked Alduskkel, dr, Dry-Fit, Prox. He was OK with a beef lynch "better than nothing". I think if he had an N0 guilty he would've come out with it. I'm thinking he probably had an innocent on one of myself, Netlava, Fonz, yabba, or Zajnet. OK, not so useful yet but it might be later.

Zajnet is suspect for a bunch of reasons others have elucidated.

I don't really get the Prox hate. I don't see his weird theories coming from scum so much.

dr has done so much bad stuff. The only thing I like about him is the claim. Hmm.

As we could lose after one more mislynch how do people feel about massclaim? Would either clear the power roles or draw fake claims I think. Either way, we narrow down our lynch pool.

ALSO:

given that a mislynch could be a loss, be cautious with your votes. A pseudo-quicklynch could end the game

.

[ekiM]

OK, massclaim is a bad idea.

Kind of waiting on Zajent to respond to stuff..

[ekiM]

Revelation.

Known for sure: VVCT???

If drmyshottyizsik is telling the truth: VVCDDT?

We get that T from assuming that there is no serial killer, which seems reasonable. Chances are high we'd have seen more kills than we have if there were one. However, this assumption tells us more than that there is one T. It tells us that either there is one T, or there are three Ts. That is, the set-up is either:

VVCTTT? where the ? is not a T or a V

or

VVCDDT? where the ? is not a T, a D, or a V.

What were the a priori probabilities for one T vs 3 Ts? 5% and 27%. It's roughly five times more likely that a random set-up has 3 Ts than 1 T. That's enough for me to want to lynch.

I said yesterday that Nurse seemed like a bad scum claim, but this was based on the idea that the full set-up would come out eventually and catch him out. However it's quite possible dr just didn't think that far ahead and went for the fakeclaim that would at least delay his death, didn't require night actions, and was less likely to be countered. Also, we're in pseudo-LYLO on D2 and massclaim is not going to happen because there's a vig out there, possibly he could have figured this was likely and gone for it for that reason.

Add to that dr's major scumminess throughout the game, and at this point I'm thinking lynching dr is our best move today, unless someone can explain to me why the above isn't correct.

[ekiM]

IIoA post for my own benefit.

---

Alduskkel

- Stuff he did/said that seems at all relevant.

Random vote for Ythan, which later turns into a wall o' text argument that I'm going to ignore.

Minor headbutting with yabbaguy about providing reasons in RVS. Feels slightly town-scum, but easily faked.

"So. Re: Netlava. At this point it really does seem like he didn't give it thought. He might be town who just made a quick post (it is short) or maybe he's scum who just didn't care. I don't know which, since on the one hand I almost posted something similar to him but on the other hand it only took me a quick think to change my mind on it." - in retrospect this ambivalence is scummy, but I'm not sure whether this hints to net-town or net-scum. Thoughts?

Alduskkel asks

kyle

Prox whom he suspects, then asks why he is voting for him.

yabba questions Ald's sarcasm and accusation of active lurking.

Question's yabba's meta on Ythan... meta that supported Aduskkel. Heh, should've caught this at the time.

Misinteprets Fonz as calling him an active lurker.

Tells Prox it's not an either/or thing with him and Ythan.

Argues with Prox's theory that he's the mafia spy.

Questions dr's meta reading that makes him suspicious of Netlava.

Asks why Ythan didn't question Fonz's random vote.

Asks why Prox suspects Beef.

Several posts flip flopping on drmy.

Eventually settles into the Dry side of the Dry-Fit/Beefster wagons end of D1.

Day 2: Opens with a vote on dr, also looking at Zajnet. Also mentions Netlava (for the early D1 thing) and Prox (gut). "ISOs" Zajnet and says he's just about ready to vote him. Says my probability stuff is good. Questions Zajnet. Says Netlava's hammer is hasty.

---

Color coded vote counts:

DAY 1

---

Votecount 1.01

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 -

Zajnet

ekiM - 1 - yabbaguy

kyle99

Prox - 1 - ekiM
yabbaguy - 1 -

Beefster

Ythan

- 1 -

Alduskkel

Not voting:

drmyshottyizsik

,

Dry-fit

,

kyle99

Prox, Netlava, The Fonz,

Ythan

---

Votecount 1.02

Alduskkel

- 2 -

kyle99

Prox,

Ythan

Beefster

- 2 -

Dry-fit

, yabbaguy
Netlava - 2 - The Fonz, ekiM

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 -

Zajnet

yabbaguy - 1 -

Beefster

Ythan

- 1 -

Alduskkel

Zajnet

- 1 - Netlava

Not voting:

drmyshottyizsik

---

Votecount 1.03
Netlava - 3 - The Fonz, ekiM,

drmyshottyizsik

Alduskkel

- 2 -

kyle99

Prox,

Ythan

Beefster

- 1 -

Dry-fit

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 - Netlava

Not voting:

Alduskkel

,

Beeftser

, yabbaguy,

Zajnet

---

Votecount 1.04
Netlava - 3 - The Fonz, ekiM,

drmyshottyizsik

Alduskkel

- 2 -

kyle99

Prox,

Ythan

Ythan

- 2 -

Alduskkel

,

Beefster

Beefster

- 1 -

Dry-fit

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 - Netlava

Not voting: yabbaguy,

Zajnet

---

Votecount 1.05
Netlava - 3 - The Fonz, ekiM,

drmyshottyizsik

Ythan

- 3 -

Alduskkel

,

Beefster

, yabbaguy

Alduskkel

- 2 -

kyle99

Prox,

Ythan

Beefster

- 1 -

Dry-fit

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 - Netlava

Not voting:

Zajnet

---

Votecount 1.06

Ythan

- 3 -

Alduskkel

,

Beefster

, yabbaguy

Alduskkel

- 2 -

kyle99

Prox,

Ythan

Beefster

- 2 -

Dry-fit

, The Fonz

drmyshottyizsik

- 2 - Netlava, Prox
Netlava - 2 - ekiM,

drmyshottyizsik

Not voting:

Zajnet

---

Votecount 1.07
Netlava - 3 - ekiM,

drmyshottyizsik

, Prox

Ythan

- 3 -

Alduskkel

,

Beefster

, yabbaguy

Beefster

- 2 -

Dry-fit

, The Fonz

drmyshottyizsik

- 2 - Netlava,

Zajnet

Alduskkel

- 1 -

Ythan

---

Votecount 1.08

Beefster

- 4 -

Dry-fit

, The Fonz, Prox,

Zajnet

Ythan

- 3 -

Alduskkel

,

Beefster

, yabbaguy

Alduskkel

- 1 -

Ythan

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 - Netlava
Netlava - 1 -

drmyshottyizsik

Prox - 1 - ekiM

---

Votecount 1.09

Beefster

- 4 - The Fonz, Prox,

Zajnet

,

drmyshottyizsik

Ythan

- 4 -

Alduskkel

,

Beefster

, yabbaguy,

Dry-fit

Alduskkel

- 1 -

Ythan

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 - Netlava
Prox - 1 - ekiM

---

Votecount 1.10

Ythan

- 4 -

Alduskkel

,

Beefster

, yabbaguy,

Dry-fit

Beefster

- 3 - The Fonz,

Zajnet

,

drmyshottyizsik

drmyshottyizsik

- 2 - Netlava, ekiM

Alduskkel

- 1 -

Ythan

Netlava - 1 - Prox

---

Votecount 1.11

Dry-fit

- 4 - The Fonz, ekiM,

Beefster

, Netlava

Ythan

- 3 - yabbaguy,

Dry-fit

,

drmyshottyizsik

Beefster

- 1 -

Zajnet

Alduskkel

- 1 -

Ythan

Not voting:

Alduskkel

, Prox

---

Votecount 1.12

Dry-fit

- 4 - The Fonz, ekiM,

Beefster

, Netlava

Alduskkel

- 1 -

Ythan

Beefster

- 1 -

Zajnet

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 -

Alduskkel

Netlava - 1 -

Dry-fit

Ythan

- 1 - yabbaguy

Not voting: Prox,

drmyshottyizsik

---

Votecount 1.13

Dry-fit

- 3 - The Fonz, ekiM, Netlava

Beefster

- 3 -

Zajnet

, Prox,

drmyshottyizsik

drmyshottyizsik

- 2 -

Alduskkel

,

Beefster

Alduskkel

- 1 -

Ythan

Netlava - 1 -

Dry-fit

Ythan

- 1 - yabbaguy

---

Votecount 1.15

Beefster

- 5 -

Zajnet

, Prox,

drmyshottyizsik

, yabbaguy, The Fonz (L-1)

Dry-fit

- 3 - ekiM, Netlava,

Beefster

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 -

Alduskkel

Alduskkel

- 1 -

Ythan

Netlava - 1 -

Dry-fit

---

Final Day One Votecount 1.16

Beefster

- 6 -

Zajnet

, Prox,

drmyshottyizsik

, yabbaguy, The Fonz, ekiM

Dry-fit

- 3 - Netlava,

Beefster

,

Alduskkel

Alduskkel

- 1 -

Ythan

Netlava - 1 -

Dry-fit

---

DAY 2

---

Votecount 2.01

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 -

Alduskkel

Netlava - 1 -

drmyshottyizsik

Zajnet

- 1 - yabbaguy

Not voting: ekim, Prox, Netlava, The Fonz,

Zajnet

---

Votecount 2.02

Zajnet

- 3 - yabbaguy, Netlava,

drmyshottyizsik

drmyshottyizsik

- 1 -

Alduskkel

Not voting: ekiM, Prox, The Fonz,

Zajnet

---

drmyshottyizsik

- 2 -

Alduskkel

,

Zajnet

Zajnet

- 2 - Netlava,

drmyshottyizsik

Not voting: ekiM, Prox, The Fonz, yabbaguy

---

Votecount 2.035

drmyshottyizsik

- 3 -

Alduskkel

,

Zajnet

, The Fonz

Zajnet

- 2 - Netlava,

drmyshottyizsik

Not voting: ekiM, Prox, yabbaguy

---

Final Day Two Votecount 2.04

drmyshottyizsik

- 5 -

Alduskkel

,

Zajnet

, The Fonz, yabbaguy, Netlava

Zajnet

- 1 -

drmyshottyizsik

Not voting: ekim, Prox

[ekiM]

The only reason not to massclaim today would be to allow the doctor a chance at a save. However, to get that chance we'd have to lynch the mafia blocker today and even then the scum have an even shot at targeting the doctor. I think we'd be helped more by massclaim, either clearing one person or making the lynch a choice between two.

I don't know how we want to pick an order. Most suspected goes first? Then either popcorn or we somehow decide on an order between us. So we need to hear hear from everybody. Prox? The Fonz?

---

Something I notice is that both nights the scum kill was on a town PR (assuming Dry-Fit was the vig kill). So I'm thinking maybe at least one of them was caught by the spy? Zajnet was the main non-dr wagon D2 so I think that's likely the case there, or they picked up some tells. The Ythan kill did remove the main Alduskkel attacker also, though. Hmm.

---

Looking at the wagons.

Early D1 the wagons that got any steam were Netlava and Ythan. Ythan asked an anti-town question, Netlava sheeped without thinking. The Fonz pointed out Netlava's sheep, I followed, so did dr, Prox when he came in.. Ythan wagon was Ald, beef, then later yabbaguy and Dry-Fit.

At 1.07 it was 3-3 between Netlava and Ythan. At 1.08 the Netlava wagon had collapsed and Beefster was up to 4 votes. Then it was Ythan vs. Beef for a bit, before the Ythan wagon collapsed and it became Beef-Dry until lynch.

Day 2, yabba and Netlava come out swinging at Zajnet and Prox. AldSCUM is on dr, Zaj and Net(sheeping Ythan)/Prox(gut).I like Prox and dislike Zaj and dr. Fonz likes yabba and is confused by Prox following Ythan against Al. yabba convince dr to vote Zaj. Ald is almost ready to put Zaj at L-1. Fonz is happy with it too. Then I come up with my set-up analysis and we go with that. Nobody objects. yabba suggests Doc claim then takes it back. Lynch is Ald, Zaj, Fonz, yabba, net.

Day 1 was kind of a mess. I guess the main question is: is Netlava scum? If Netlava is town then there wasn't a major wagon on scum all of D1, which isn't very useful. If he's scum then his wagon was started by Fonz, followed by me, and briefly interested Prox.

Day 2 I think the questions are: did scum know Zaj was vig? Were they trying to get him lynched. Alduskkel mildly supported the lynch, so I think we can say they wanted him dead. The only person who never supported his death was Prox, but he was kind of lurky. Hmm.

---

kyle

Prox

- His held-back theories on Alduskkel being mafia spy were weird but feel genuine. Now we know Ald is scum it looks even better for Prox. No offense, but I'm not seeing Prox pulling off complicated distancing like that. The way he seemed to genuinely interrogate people and then change his opinion based on that was good too. I really think this guy is town.

The Fonz

- Nobody suspected this guy at all D1 and D2. I can't really fault his play, except for ending up pushing townies. I wonder why he hasn't been targeted for a kill, being the most "famous" player, and not suspected. Maybe because they feared a protect, maybe because they were hunting power roles. Pushed Netlava early on, but that could be distancing or real.

yabbaguy

- Again, I don't remember anyone at all suspecting him. I like his inquisitiveness throughout and attempts to focus the town. Believing dr seems good. He did pile on Zajnet yesterday, but he did look scummy as hell. The doc-claim idea seems more likely to come from town I think. Although, if he's scum who knows dr is truthuful... bleh.

Netlava

- Obviously there's his early game sheep onto Ythan's question. His scumhunting throughout has been poor. Opportunistic at times. Bleh.

I don't really know. Those are my initial thoughts. I think Prox is town and between the other three I'm not sure yet, but Netlava looks worst. I think it's massclaim time, eh.

[ekiM]

So we've got...

yabba: The Fonz, ekiM, (Prox)
Netlava: Prox, ekiM
ekiM: Netlava, (Fonz), (yabba)
Prox: Netlava, (Fonz), (yabba), ekiM)
Fonz: Netlava, (Prox), (yabba)

Where brackets is lesser suspects. Sorry if I'm misrepresenting anyone. Now how do we go about deciding a massclaim order? I think we should get that done before we discuss anything else.

[ekiM]

My plan is to play this out without roleclaiming, and if we get scum lynched, then we might have a scenario of one confirmed Town, the Doctor, in the final LyLo, which raises the Town win probability up, or two Doctors and a Blocker puts Blocker in the driver's seat, the only other town PR I could plausibly see exist at this point. If we go ahead and get a Doctor to claim, we may get confirmed Town now, but we lose him in the LyLo that really matters.

You know we lose if we lynch a townie today?

A Doctor who seems to be counterclaiming isn't actually counterclaiming if it's VVCDDDT!

D vs DDD is 37% vs. 2%. Discounting this.

There's also VVCCDDT which gives them the license to bullshit any powerclaim and get away with it.

Not seeing why this is so terrible. Explain?

And I still want ekiM to explain why he used statistics back there to decide on shotty. Like, solely statistics. Nothing else. The math is good, but if you're informed, you know it's actually a 100% chance of shotty flipping Town.

A solid 5-1 probability argument swayed me a lot more than anything else I was getting out of the game. The four townie deaths didn't help me figure anything out, and the general quality of the town has been low, making it rather hard to distinguish scummy behavior from poor town play.

I'm not really sure what you're getting at here. dr was at least as scummy as anyone else, AND probability said it was unlikely his claim was true. What's your problem with this? Why didn't you have a problem with it yesterday but you do now?

[ekiM]

I've got a super important presentation to give tomorrow. I should have a lot more time available after that. Quickly:

yabba, three scenarios:

1) I'm town and believed my argument on dr.
2) I'm scum who didn't know Zaj was vig who redirected the wagon abruptly for some reason.
3) I'm mafia spy, knew Zaj was vig, and redirected the wagon so Zaj couldn't claim and save himself and get doc protection. We then decided not to block the vig (??), or our blocker got blocked.

I think we're discounting 2. Do you not see how 3 is pretty far fetched? Why are you so paranoid about the possibility of me being scum who knew dr was scum when the same possibility applies to every player who ever voted for a townie..?

[ekiM]

Doctor. Netlava.

[ekiM]

Oh, duh. The Fonz N0 and N1 because I thought he was likely to be a target N0 for being "famous" and N1 for being unsuspected all day. N2 was between Fonz and yabba, again for being unsuspected, went with yabba because Fonz hadn't been targeted N0 or N1 so maybe he was scum or the spy found him to be vanilla.

[ekiM]

Is there anyone who feels like lynching Netlava would be a bad idea?

[ekiM]

Bah.

Go town..

[ekiM]

Thanks to Nobody Special for :goodmodding:, and everyone else who played and tried.

My play was shoddy all game. About the only thing I was right about was a couple of town reads and Netlava being scum. If I'd have had the balls to throw out a vote for him D3 maybe we would've won. Oh well.

[ekiM]

Night Zero Actions:

Mafia Spy (Alduskkel) Investigate Ythan
Cop (Ythan) Investigate Alduskkel

Heh, indeedy.