Mini 961: Insane Asylum II: GAME OVER :O!

[Corvuus]

okay, i think people deserve prods at this point.
-----
I'm done with re-reading and ready for a consensus/vote.

I still think 2 scum left is slightly more likely, but I can see a scenario where there would be only 1 scum left. If Dram wasn't the most likely scum in the 2-scum left scenario, then there would be a reason to question/elaborate more but as is, I think lynching Dram is fine whether it is 1 or 2 scum left.

Corvuus

[StrangerCoug]

Waiting for two other people to vote dramonic You told me to vote last, no?

[Corvuus]

yes i did. You could have said something regarding consensus or whether it was enough for you.

vote Dramonic

Corv

[magnus_orion]

Mod: prod dramonic

please.
I'm nearly totally committed to a dramonic lynch, but I would like to hear if dramonic has anything to say to change my mind first, in order to put my paranoia to rest.

[StrangerCoug]

yes i did. You could have said something regarding consensus or whether it was enough for you.

I'm pretty much fine.

[dramonic]

Corvuus, I'm asking why you think the only town loses in a 2 scum left scenario where I'm town is if both scums are PRs.

[Corvuus]

I still have no idea what you are trying to say or what you mean.

The scenario analysis is based on lynching Dram today. If there are 2 scum left and if Dram is town (plus we all know SC is not scum) then there must be 2 power roles who are scumbuddies together since everyone else left (other than Dram, unless Dram lied) are power roles. This would mean a MO/SP scumteam which, as I stated earlier, I don't consider very likely and lynching Dram today would (unless there is a reason that 2 scum versus 2 town isn't end game) result in a town loss and a scum win.

This is a 'worst' case scenario compared to the more likely situation where Dram is scum (regardless of 1 or 2 scum analysis).

-----

This possibility still bothered me a little but I re-read some parts and I am convinced that in the end-game permutations, it is extremely unlikely compared to other situations.

Elaboration:
I re-read and when SC was describing his role (and there were comments and discussion regarding whether he was inmate, 3rd party, red herring), it has occurred to me that there is a chance that SC is a neutral survivor with NK immunity/resistance.

So stating that SC is 'absolutely' town isn't 100% correct but, for sure, he is not scum.

*I will emphatically NOT agree to an SC lynch at any point*.

If SC is town aligned with his role, then 2 scum left is a much more likely balance situation due to haylenSk - SCtownvig balance. If SC is survivor (neutral), then the "must be 2 scum left" analysis isn't for sure. i.e. If SC is a survivor, then there being only 1 scum left actually makes sense to me in terms of voting pattern/role balance, etc. Frankly, it would actually explain alot to me if this is true.

I considered after my re-read of just outright asking SC if he is a survivor. However, whether he is a survivor or not, whether there is 1 or 2 scum, dram is the most likely scum candidate in either permutation. The only reason to demand SC clarify whether he is a survivor or not is if there is a chance that Dram isn't scum, which I don't consider that likely, and SC not being a survivor would lean 2 scum left which would make a dram-lynch a loss.

SC: if you want to clarify or not, or heck tell the truth or even lie, I couldn't careless as long as you are pro-town. You are either a pro-town role or, hopefully in worst case, a pro-town win survivor.

Final *crystal clear* elaboration:

If dram flips as the final scum, then I will expect SC to be revealed as a survivor who wins with town. Go town!!

If dram flips as scum, and the game does not end, I will expect SC to be town-aligned (but it is possible he is survivor and there are 2 scum left, just not as likely) and the remaining players will fight it out in lylo. I'd earnestly hope that a SC-survivor in that situation would not just vote to lynch just to end and win regardless of which side, but actually try to side with town. Whether SC-survivor or SC-town, town should have a good chance at winning 3-4 player lylo.

My vote and my view stand.

Corvuus

[Netopalis]

Sociopath has been prodded.

[SocioPath]

Looks to be the same ole same ole.
I think we've extracted as much info as we are going to get out of today.
Other than Dram's "why does scum have to be power roles when I am the only living claimed VT"
I'm ready to seal the deal.

Vote: dramonic

[Netopalis]

Vote count:

Dramonic - 2 - SocioPath, Corvuus (L-1)

Not voting: Strangercoug, Magnus_Orion, Dramonic

[dramonic]

Vote: Dramonic

I'm pretty certain there's only one scum left and my death should allow for some better play all-around.

[Netopalis]

Vote count:

Dramonic - 2 - SocioPath, Corvuus, Dramonic (

LYNCHED

)

Not voting: Strangercoug, Magnus_Orion, Dramonic

Dramonic has been lynched.


Chaos! Chaos! The whole asylum was erupting into chaos! The doctors, the guards, the inmates...all were confused and running amok. In the middle of it all, one of the inmates, Dramonic, hung himself at the encouragement of SocioPath and Corvuus.

Now, only 4 of them remain. It will be a very, very uneasy night.

Dramonic,

Mostly Vanilla Townie

, Lynched Day 4.

Please send night choices to both myself and UK. The deadline for choices is August 1, 2010 at 11:59 PM.

[magnus_orion]

well, crap.
Although us not losing seems to suggest only 1 mafia remains....

[magnus_orion]

ebwop: Corvuus, I stopped caring because I was pretty sure dram was scum, but you never answered my question (regarding who you thought we should lynch) earlier.
Answer it please.

[Corvuus]

1. I don't really expect to live through the night. If i am still around, then sure we can talk about whatever you like. I'll just say that my cop investigation is going to be SP (only non-miller) and whether it gets psychobabbled or what not, or I die at night, we'll find out.

2. Which part are you referring to? The part where I didn't want to lynch Dram first but lynch his scumbuddy? Or the part where I think you are more likely scum than SP, but, in terms of 'sanity immune scum', it makes more sense as psychologist compared to the other remaining power roles?

----

Well, either way, I think regardless of how or what I answered, you'd probably still think I am scum since you are apparently blaming me for it.

Even when I said earlier that Dram being scum doesn't make sense if there is only 1 scum left, I'm pretty sure it was MO/SC/SP who said "1 scum left, it is Dram" while I was, "2 scum left, Dram + scumbuddy". In 1-scum left (MO/SC/SP), or 2 scum-left (Corv), Dram popped up as scum in all of them. I even mentioned this and why I thought it was kind of weird.

You say you stopped caring and re-reading but hey, I at least tried a re-read, saw a SC-survivor and 1 scum left possibility, which, quite frankly is the ONLY possibility if all the remaining power roles are town/Dram is scum and why I actually voted. At any rate, I actually think SC is a survivor now. If there was no possibility of SC being a survivor, then I'd probably have tried to reconcile how everyone who thinks "1 scum left" thought Dram, when this was the least likely possibility due to role balance (with SCtown, at least 1 power role must be scum).

But hey, sure, this is all my fault. If you are scum or have some magical vig power, then go for it. Then you can enjoy a 3 player lylo with a SC-survivor and I wouldn't have to put in any effort since I'd be dead.

-------------------

Unless specifically asked a question or some kind of important reason comes up, I don't plan on posting again this night. I'll either see you in the morning or I won't.

Corv

[Corvuus]

edit by way of post:

MO, still think you were roleblocked?

---

Also, Dram's lynch to me was a optimization in the sense that
1. If 2 scum left, Dram should be one of them.
2. If 1 scum left, it "could" have been Dram (SC-survivor). If it isn't Dram, then game isn't over with 1 scum left.
The only worst case scenario for town is 2 scum left, and Dram isn't one of them which, as I said before (MO-SP, not likely) and, at least MO has stated before (SP-Corv) is unlikely. So town shouldn't instantly lose.

But hey, you could just simply read my posts to see where I say all this.

C

[StrangerCoug]

Unless he was a reverse death miller, I want to beat dramonic senseless for reasons that should be pretty easy to figure out.

[magnus_orion]

blaming you for it? Where do you get these ideas?
I fully supported a dram lynch. I'm surprised and disheartened to learn I was wrong, but intend to press on anyway. There's no blame involved.

The part where I didn't want to lynch Dram first but lynch his scumbuddy?

This one.

[StrangerCoug]

And apparently, they're not easy to figure out. When the hell is it a good idea to self-hammer as town?

[Corvuus]

from my post #69 in isolation. (partial quote)

The reasoning should be obvious. There is a difference between lynching Dram versus his power role-scumbuddy and there is a difference in figuring out connections and actually getting a vote out on scumbuddy as opposed to Dram.
This should especially be true with your stated view(s) of the game, but I think I'll refrain from saying more at this point since we both want players to give their input and this could easily regress back into me harassing you and you sidestepping.
.........
I will state this now though for the complete and total record. If you do decide on a 3 scum initially (2 left) and you vote to lynch anyone but Dram, I will point out the hypocrisy made here.
Corvuus

You can disagree with my thinking/reasoning but essentially it is trying to figure things out without having a "100%" lynch for the day while still thinking Dram is scum.

Similar to how you thought Dram was scum but didn't want to automatically lynch him yet (get more info).... except if we all blatantly say "Dram is scum but let's not lynch him yet", then everyone, especially scum, can just turtle up and say "Dram is scum, why aren't we lynching him" and prolong it without any fear or serious chance of lynching someone other than Dram. This could kill information gathering since without a potential vote on someone non-dram, no reason for anyone to say anything non-dram, and even further discussion would have probably still lead to a Dram lynch unless we just outright tried to lynch non-Dram first. I.e. if we had seriously tried to lynch MO or SP instead of Dram, we 'may' have gotten more information than just lynching Dram.

This did bother me when players said "1 scum left, it is Dram" since... it is really taking a 'easy' way out when role balance would say if it is 1 scum, it shouldn't be dram. In hindsight, I should have rejected the '1 scum, it is Dram' since it just isn't likely but then I re-read and SC could be/is a survivor which would make it 'possible' and optimization/end game scenarios made it a reasonable choice.

----------------

In general, there are two reasons for wanting to vote a scumbuddy partner first versus the 'certain scum'.

First is the one you pointed out, i.e. scum would say that to protect their partner and push to mislynch. As evidenced by Dram's flip, this wasn't what I was doing. I wasn't trying to protect Dram or prevent his lynch but trying to get info.

Second, is that I did think Dram is scum (2 scum scenario) but I didn't want to instant vote him or be forced into voting for him at that point and I wanted to try to push a non-dram lynch just to gain information. (Since player analysis of Dram was that he wouldn't be helpful as lynch of the day if he was town, and he wouldn't say anything if he was scum, consistent with his play yesterday). In the end, (and what actually happened) is I reverted back to a Dram lynch since, in terms of 1 or 2 scum left, it was the safest choice. I also didn't see what kind of case or 'wagon' I could build on SP or MO (SC is certainly not scum) without being accused of trying to "protect my scumbuddy dram" or some other nonsense and getting mislynched myself. i.e. You, MO, calling me out on wanting to lynch Dram-scumbuddy first, kind of forced me towards having to lynch Dram. This is why, in my above quote, i was fairly annoyed with you since you said you didnt want to lynch Dram first but gain info first (identical goals) but different methods. I just couldn't tell then if it was because you were scum with Dram or if you were town trying to scumhunt.


You may hate me and/or think I'm an idiot, but I threw out several ideas (voting pattern, sanity immune scum, role balance, etc.) and tried what I thought was best for town. It just never picked up or developed and I didn't see a way for me to do it. Maybe if I was a better/more concise player, things would be different.

-----

In terms of final endgame:

My gut tells me that there is sanity immune, there is no roleblock, SC is a survivor.

As to why MO thinks roleblock, that still bothers me a little (I am a cop, SP is a psychologist or somehow made the worst fakeclaim in the world, claiming psychologist when not in mason group) so there is no one to do roleblock. I'm inclined to think psychologist is sanity immune (compared to cop and jack of all trades) so I'd consider SP as more likely scum than MO right now based on that but I still have to figure out voting pattern and why SP would bus DGB like that, etc.. I'm not going to instant vote (if i am still around) but I am definitely not voting SC unless something completely and incredibly insane happens.

I don't think I have any other thoughts on the game, but I'll respond if asked something.

Corvuus

[magnus_orion]

I don't hate you and or think you're an idiot... I'm deeply apologetic if I gave that impression
....
Early interaction, BV310 (later becomes DGB) votes sociopath (whose wagon is rising steadily), little to no comment... conversely, DGB was very supportive of SP = town...
Farside (later becomes corvuus) draws attention to bv310's lack of explanation, and doubts the sociopath wagon, puts an fos on bv310, however doesn't vote him.
DGB attacks strangercoug aggressively as DGB heads toward being lynched...

These all don't look like scum interactions...

[Corvuus]

it is just me kicking myself. I'm not emotionally distraught by you personally, just game/play frustration generally.

at any rate, some comments from my notes:
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page 32
DGB begins to explode.
Called out by Tar, followed up by SP and SP votes/pressures. Farside
also pushed DGB but forgot to unvote. Willing to hammer but wanted info due
to haylen/SC actions. SC as wagon target - extremely unlikely allied
with DGB.
DGB stated in earlier comments that Farside is town, SP is town, SC
is scum, Tar is town, Haylen is scum. MO as town appearing but
leaning scum based on him voting DGB. Tar being town but leaning
towards scum based on him voting DGB/not protecting him.

Possible conclusions: Tar flipping town, and response comparison would
point to MO being town as well. SP as likely scum based on DGB post,
reaction. If DGB expected this (call Farside/SP town in order to false
link) and then treat MO specifically like that, then DGB protecting MO
scumbuddy + MO 'later' in vote. Both possible, but SP decision to bus
immediately compared to gradual bus shift with MO. Tar-MO comparison.
town, wait to lynch to get more information. consistent with MO
play-style in hesitating/wanting views out before heard.

not-conclusive scum interaction.
---
page 34 Dram makes comment on MO pushing his view to try to link
himself to DGB, says DGB/haylen/SC as likely scum list. DGB drops
off as he votes SC with haylen as 'tomorrow's lynch'.
Page 35. Haylen says DGB is town/town-vibe, towards SC lynch.
---
note: Haylen and Dram both flipping non-allied with DGB means DGB was bussed,
the decision to do so was either made incredibly early (SP-vote-pressure)
or middle ground (MO-later-i can get behind DGB-lynch).
not-conclusive.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The above is from my notes, with the added info of Dram town flip and some formatting.
I don't think it helps at all though since I still can't decide. Just see what happens dependent on what scum do.

MO: do you still think you were roleblocked? Actually, just save your explanation for if we are both around tomorrow. If you die, then it won't matter except for 'general housekeeping'. Just like SC explaining whether he is survivor or not doesn't really matter now, just housekeeping notes.

.... i want the night to end....
Corv

[magnus_orion]

shall I give SC a kill?

[Corvuus]

I don't know how to interpret that, nor do I know how to answer that without also giving info to scum.

But yeah, sure, sounds like a plan.

Corv

[StrangerCoug]

I'm more than happy with a shot, but for me to use it requires either a No Kill or a No Lynch in the next cycle. Optimally not both. If I shoot in 3:1 and mishit, town loses. (If I am survivor, it does not matter to me whom I shoot given a scenario when I have an opportunity.)

If the Mafia kills tonight and I get a point, then we need the day to go on as long as possible for me to be the best informed on whom to lynch.