A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom


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Post Post #1750 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:07 am

Post by Super Smash Bros. Fan »

hasdgfas wrote:That was your reason? Really?
Yes it was. He was also my top suspect. Would it seriously not make any sense to kill someone you consider the most suspicious?
Axelrod wrote:SSBF, does your "flavor" explain why your victims are hacked to pieces?
I'm leaning toward yes mainly because I believe that Arya Stark is an aggressive person given that according to the flavor, he has run feral.
Locke Lamora wrote:SSBF: you didn't say whether you'd read the books or not.
The answer to that question is no, I have not read the books nor have heard of them before this game.
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Post Post #1751 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:12 am

Post by Locke Lamora »

Arya Stark is a 10-year-old girl. But yes, I suppose calling her aggressive is fair. It's just really, really hard to picture her hacking anyone to pieces.
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Post Post #1752 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:56 am

Post by Benmage »

Locke Lamora wrote:Arya Stark is a 10-year-old girl. But yes, I suppose calling her aggressive is fair. It's just really, really hard to picture her hacking anyone to pieces.
None of her kills in the books are hacked to pieces. There is only one I think she stabs a couple times with her dagger.

Someone said this sounded more like the Mountain that Moves...and I'd believe that.

But flavors flavor, I'm not gonna get hung up on it. Mines not the best. SSBF has killed two scum and is willing to kill those undesirable players.
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Post Post #1753 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 6:20 am

Post by hasdgfas »

Super Smash Bros. Fan wrote:
hasdgfas wrote:That was your reason? Really?
Yes it was. He was also my top suspect. Would it seriously not make any sense to kill someone you consider the most suspicious?
Nope, it makes perfect sense to kill the person you consider most suspicious. Here's my issue. Raivann claimed Vigilante. If you are the vigilante, I don't believe that you wouldn't have that as part of your reason for killing him. That should be reason number 1, because you would be pretty darn sure he was fakeclaiming. With you leaving out that crucial bit of info, I do not believe your claim for a second.
Axelrod wrote:SSBF, does your "flavor" explain why your victims are hacked to pieces?
I'm leaning toward yes mainly because I believe that Arya Stark is an aggressive person given that according to the flavor, he has run feral.
He? :? I would expect flavor to be clear that Arya is a girl.
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Post Post #1754 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 6:27 am

Post by Mina »

Nope, it makes perfect sense to kill the person you consider most suspicious. Here's my issue. Raivann claimed Vigilante. If you are the vigilante, I don't believe that you wouldn't have that as part of your reason for killing him. That should be reason number 1, because you would be pretty darn sure he was fakeclaiming. With you leaving out that crucial bit of info, I do not believe your claim for a second.
This.
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Post Post #1755 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 6:30 am

Post by CSL »

I bet you want to know my opinion of SSBF's claim.

Whilst it might be true that the scum are given fakeclaims, if he's willing to cut down undesirable players like vezok, then leave him be.
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Post Post #1756 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 6:41 am

Post by Mina »

Actually, what I really want to know is why, back on D1, you said you found Deer/Raivann scummier than CMAR, then voted CMAR, then said it was to get a lynch even though they were both in dead heat, then said that actually you found CMAR scummier than Raivann, then went back to saying it was because you wanted to get a lynch.

And why you didn't notice that someone had claimed a guilty on Percy.

I'm still waiting for an explanation.

Also, for the record, if we leave SSBF alive, he said that he's planning to kill you. Any thoughts on that?
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Post Post #1757 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 8:17 am

Post by CSL »

About the CMAR vs Raivann: CMAR was lacking in post depth after Richard's claim, then everyone and their mother jumped on his bandwagon, and, given that deadline was too close, switched bandwagons.

About the guilty claim on Percy: Didn't read the thread.

About SSBF planning to kill me: If it's for the good of the town, I lay my life down.
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Post Post #1758 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:41 am

Post by Mikujin »

V/LA starting now
for most of the weekend. Gonna be out of town with a plane. Depending on where I get put up, I
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have internet access, no promises. (Sorry 'bout the short notice; this job just got called in a few hours ago)
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Post Post #1759 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 10:42 am

Post by xvart »

Reread Rifka; I don't like post 559 and I don't like post 1573. Post 559 isn't necessarily a scumtell. I think it could be a way of bussing a partner without fulling supporting the case. More of a fallback plan to make sure rifka was on the lynch. I really don't like the immediate self light candle, especially when only being fingered by a couple of people. But the rest of rifka's posts are not screaming scum to me, of either alignment.
MagnaofIllusion wrote:Are you saying that dana couldn’t strongly argue against a link between himself and Raivann if it had been true? Because that’s a necessary requirement for you to identify that dana was being voted for the ‘wrong reasons’ without having inside knowledge.
The tell, as I see it, is when a scum is busted for something that he/she does not consider scummy. Busted for the wrong reasons. I don't see the necessity of having inside knowledge for this tell.
hasdgfas wrote:Question to everyone: how many scum do you think the Greyjoys/Lannisters have? We have 2 dead on each side right now, from 26 total
I'm guessing three or four for the Lannisters or Greyjoy's plus SSBF as the SK, depending on if they have any other PRs. I don't think they both have to be the same number, again, depending on if they have any PRs or not.

Regarding SSBF, I think it's pretty risky trying to direct a SK. He has no reason to follow along with us and if I was pretty much a confirmed anti-town faction with a near impossible way to win I would probably just start killing people to create the most chaos. I the people that are defending a SK because he killed a Lannister and Greyjoy? If I was the SK I would do the exact same thing, to try and buy town cred when I was forced to claim. Yes, he's helped us, but I don't think it is a safe assumption to think that is/was his primary objective.

Mina - how are you doing on the N2 QT paraphrase?

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Post Post #1760 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 10:50 am

Post by Axelrod »

Mina wrote: Hey, Axelrod! I've got a question for you. A couple, actually.

When I complained about the people suggesting that Percy step forward, you said this:
Axelrod wrote:
Mina wrote:There is no evidence implying that Percy is scum.
Well, that's not exactly true either. There's certainly nothing blatant though.
I think your only interaction with Percy was to agree with his read on Hayker and danakillsu. You never mentioned anything negative about him before then.

What evidence in particular were you thinking of (that wasn't blatant, but that was enough for you to want to scan him)?
I don't have proper time to answer this, but I'll just say, you know that player who seems to always post reasonably, who raises your hackles but doesn't give you anything to hang your hat on, and you don't trust without being able to articulate a compelling reason why not, that was Percy. I could cut and paste several specific posts, but that would be very time consuming from where I am and also self-serving in any event.
Mina wrote:Also, in response to this:
Axelrod wrote:Still waiting for SSBF to claim or do anything useful. Got a few niggles here and there on other people, but not a lot of time to do anything with them.
Please elaborate on these niggles.
Again, internet constraints make this not very feasible if you are looking for specific quotes. But MagnaofIllusion, Unsight, Mikujin have all made posts that raised the proverbial hackles at one time or the other.
Mina wrote:Axelrod, if we decide not to lynch SSBF today, then who would you like to lynch instead?
Probably go with CSL. Nothing he's said has made me feel particularly good about him. I'd like to reread and find someone else I could get excited about, but that's not happening right now.
Mina wrote:Because most of your posts in this game are commenting on safe topics (even though you execute them all with wide-eyed sincerity). And because I've just noticed something that I hadn't before (and which would have affected my read of you). Your join date is 2005.
Yes, that's me, all wide-eyed sincerity. And yes, I have been around for awhile.
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Post Post #1761 (ISO) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 4:17 pm

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

Miku wrote:If we lynch SSBF now, he's got a 0% chance to win, that I'll agree with. The flaw with the rest of your logic is that you assume he's a vanilla SK, while the potential for him to be scum is still entirely possible. Everyone's calling out that this game must be 4-4-1 or 3-3-1. What about 3-3-3? For all we know the Lannisters/Greyjoys are both on their last legs. I'm not familiar at all with the flavor (as I've expressed several times) so I'm not going to press speculation further than that, but your math is terrible since you can't account for any variables without knowing the setup.
No-one knows whether there is a third scum party out there (except for the hypothetical scum, of course). That doesn’t mean that the VERY remote chance a third scum team exists makes it the right play to lynch SSBF. Let’s analyze the situation –

SSBF, if he is a member of a third scum team, has outed himself with his Vig claim. This locks that hypothetical scum team into making Town approved kills. He’ll be instantly lynched or vig-killed if he deviates. Also if a third scum faction does pop up due to Nightkill or lynch he’s also be instantly taken out as there is no way a game of this size can support three different Mafia factions and more than the Town vigs we know exist (Thor and the now defunct Richard).

There’s plently of scummy looking fear mongering going on in that argument Miku.
Axel wrote:So, it looks like a SK claim to me. And if that's the case, I think I'd rather eliminate it now, rather than try to keep him "on a leash" as it were. We eliminate a killing "group" and extend the game.
Lord help us if we were to try and "direct" his kill, and missed a few times, and then couldn't afford to lynch him because we'd be throwing the game to the mafia. I've seen so many winable games lost due to aggressive vigging plans.
There's no need for this when we are ahead. Now is a great time to do away with the SK.
Bold added for emphasis -

1. The first bolded sentence is invalid. If the “hacked to pieces” flavour makes a single kill that isn’t rubber stamped by the confirmed / semi-confirmed Town players (Locke, Thor, Ben) he’ll be strung up immediately.
2. Your experience with past games really doesn’t apply unless you can find a game with parallel circumstances that resulted in a loss. Otherwise it’s just more fear-mongering.
3. Why do you assume SSBF’s kills might not eliminate the Lannisters or Greyjoys? You indicate you feel we are in a 3-3-1 scenario.
Mina wrote:I'm still undecided on a few things: both whether it's a good idea to leave SSBF alive today and whether I should come forward with all my theories and reasoning (since exposing it will motivate an SK or rival scum into behaving certain ways).
Well I might have already ruined that hold back of theories thing you were going for. I’d simply suggest is that if it motivates a SK or other scum group to behave in a way that benefits Town I don’t see a short-term reason to not present your theories.

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Post Post #1762 (ISO) » Sat Jul 31, 2010 2:50 am

Post by Eddard Stark »

Votecount 3.11 The '
"We will fight a battle and then we’ll rest. Alive or dead, we’ll rest."
' votecount.


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With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.


Checking who needs prodding.
Deadline for today is Wednesday August 11th @ 6:30 EST. here
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Post Post #1763 (ISO) » Sat Jul 31, 2010 3:48 am

Post by Axelrod »

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Axel wrote:So, it looks like a SK claim to me. And if that's the case, I think I'd rather eliminate it now, rather than try to keep him "on a leash" as it were. We eliminate a killing "group" and extend the game.
Lord help us if we were to try and "direct" his kill, and missed a few times, and then couldn't afford to lynch him because we'd be throwing the game to the mafia. I've seen so many winable games lost due to aggressive vigging plans.
There's no need for this when we are ahead. Now is a great time to do away with the SK.
Bold added for emphasis -

1. The first bolded sentence is invalid. If the “hacked to pieces” flavour makes a single kill that isn’t rubber stamped by the confirmed / semi-confirmed Town players (Locke, Thor, Ben) he’ll be strung up immediately.
2. Your experience with past games really doesn’t apply unless you can find a game with parallel circumstances that resulted in a loss. Otherwise it’s just more fear-mongering.
3. Why do you assume SSBF’s kills might not eliminate the Lannisters or Greyjoys? You indicate you feel we are in a 3-3-1 scenario.
The "bolded" sentence is far from "invalid." The hypothetical SK may be on a short leash atm, but that hardly means he's nothing to be concerned about any longer. He may happily kill whoever we tell him to kill (or whoever out of a specified group, which is probably worse), but just because he's killing who he is directed to kill doesn't mean he's killing scum. And if we "miss" too much (we meaning the Town who is deciding the kill, not the SK suddenly deciting to go rogue - that's not what I'm talking about - suddenly, we can't afford to lynch him anymore. Because now we
need
him. We don't need him right now.

I have played in no fewer than 4 games (not necessarily on this site) and modded others where the town had a commanding lead, and proceeded to vig away all their advantage, and lost. Sounds good in theory, in practice doesn't always work out so well. You really just need one scum who is running under the radar. Whereas, without the SK running around, the game is extended, and every extra day, extra vote, causes the scum to have to work harder to stay under that radar.

I don't know how many scum there are, but I would say that I think 3-3-1 (with some other "neutral" type role a possibility) is the most
likely
scenario. More than that and the game starts to turn on scum cross-fire as opposed to town accuracy.
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Post Post #1764 (ISO) » Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:14 pm

Post by Mina »

Right now, I need to head out, so I'm keeping this quick (there's stuff I wanted to mention about Macavitar and Mikujin, too, but I'll save it for later):
xvart wrote: Mina - how are you doing on the N2 QT paraphrase?
Thanks for reminding me. :(

I'll see if I can get it done tomorrow.
MagnaofIllusion wrote:I don’t like it because it just because there isn’t a non-WIFOM scum motivation for you to express your theory of a Lannister on the Kingsguard and to push so hard for Cow. Your theory makes sense I think. If Cow does scan as Town that leaves you as the only “unaccounted for” Kingsguard member. The heavy WIFOM involved with whether you would push for Cow’s investigation to ‘clear yourself’ is something I would not put past a good player using to their advantage. All this said I still feel you are Town but I’m not going to outright dismiss that little bit of gnawing doubt in the back of my mind that this scenario creates.
Fair enough. I wouldn't confirm myself as non-Lannister.

If anything, voicing my theory would probably harm the town. It's basically what happens if SSBF is Mafia fakeclaiming (possible given how weakly he's justified his kill choices) and there really is a SK instead of a vig. In that case, we're better off lynching SSBF.

Either way, I'm thinking if we're super-confident that SSBF is scum, we should kill him sooner than later, because we're more likely to make an accurate lynch choice tomorrow than today from among the rest of our suspects. But it's a good idea to at least look at other lynch options today and keep the pressure up on everyone.

CSL: thank you for that. But you were actually never on Raivann's bandwagon. And my point was not only that Raivann's lynch was still viable when you voted CMAR over him, but that you then OUTRIGHT CLAIMED that you suspected CMAR more.

Hmm. That explanation could have been
worse
, but I have a paranoid theory right now based on the change in style of that post. Probably tinfoil hat, though.

That said, you not noticing the investigation on Percy is a point against you being a Greyjoy. In particular, Faraday mentioned in a PM to me last game that he'd probably use daytalking next time, in which case I'm sure Percy would have been sweating bullets in the QT before being savaged by Grey Wind.

Axelrod: you have time to write long posts explaining just why we should lynch the potential SK (which I can see a very obvious scum motivation for posting). What I'd like now is at least one case. Preferably not on CSL, because that's reaching for the low-hanging fruit. Because the only case you've made all game is on danakillsu, after several people had attacked him, and one on SSBF based purely on the NKs.

See, you may act soooo upset when a townie doesn't claim until late, and worried about players who are turned off by this game by Drippereth's playstyle, and happy when we kill scum...but that's something an experienced player in a multiple-faction game might be able to fake. When I look at the overall pattern of your actions, you fit very well into the scum mold. You're talking the talk, but not walking the walk. And your recent posts have a few sentences that--to borrow your own expression--raise my hackles.

So it would make me happy if you tried to make a little time before the deadline is up.

I don't suppose you have town and scum meta, do you?
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Post Post #1765 (ISO) » Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:07 pm

Post by hasdgfas »

All right, seeing as how there has been a lull in responding to my question about scumteam sizes, I should actually go a bit into why I asked it.
I wasn't sure whether 3/3/1 or 4/4/1 was more likely(as I think those are the two likely scenarios).
Now, if we think we have 3/3/1, that means we have 1/1/1 left, with 17 alive. Plenty of time to find the two remaining scum that aren't the SK(assuming that's SSBF) if we lynch him today
If we think we have 4/4/1, that means we have 2/2/1 left, with 17 alive, and if we lynch SSBF, it's tougher to be able to find the scum left in time unless there are crosskills, so we should leave him alive, for at least one night.
I'd rather kill SSBF today and get rid of the extra kill(and 99% likely, the SK), than have 3 kills a night, which could easily get out of hand, especially if the kills are mostly on town.
I'm willing to look elsewhere, but still don't know why we should leave SSBF alive. I get that he's killed 2 scum so far, but that can quickly change, regardless of whether or not we're partially directing his kills.

Let me know if this is nonsensical, I'm a bit tired right now, but my head knows what I mean.
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Post Post #1766 (ISO) » Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:42 pm

Post by Thor665 »

That makes sense, and certainly clarifies a need to either verify his Vig claim or kill him to death sooner rather then later.

My counter is I don't want to lynch him today if who he's going to kill is vezo or CSL tonight. Does that make sense as well? Neither slot is very helpful to town right now, and removing them will be a boon in my opinion - third kill or no.
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Post Post #1767 (ISO) » Sun Aug 01, 2010 7:00 am

Post by Benmage »

Thor665 wrote: My counter is I don't want to lynch him today if who he's going to kill is vezo or CSL tonight. Does that make sense as well? Neither slot is very helpful to town right now, and removing them will be a boon in my opinion - third kill or no.
This, because we'd potentially be wasting day lynches on these people. So if they can be NK'd, than good.
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Post Post #1768 (ISO) » Sun Aug 01, 2010 2:12 pm

Post by Super Smash Bros. Fan »

Mina wrote:Did you leave any breadcrumbs?
That answer would be no. When I claim, I have no intentions of bread crumbing it, I feel like it's unecessary work to create a solid bread crumb and then when you need to claim that you search through your ISO. Forgetting that you've bread crumb your result means that you wasted time doing that.
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Post Post #1769 (ISO) » Sun Aug 01, 2010 7:29 pm

Post by vezokpiraka »

Posting here until a big case on someone is made so I can vote . Until them I will let my vote on mina.
Vote Mina
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Post Post #1770 (ISO) » Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:23 pm

Post by Locke Lamora »

So you don't have any response to Cow's point, SSBF? Surely you must have killed Raivann because he claimed vigilante? Also, I think the point of breadcrumbing is so that people believe you haven't just made something up on the spot. I really don't think it's that much work.

I am entirely with Thor. If SSBF is going to kill CSL or Vezo, even if we lynch him tomorrow it's far better than lynching SSBF today and then having to wait until tomorrow to lynch/vig CSL/Vezo. Like I said before, let scum have to think about the problem of having an SK around for a bit. People getting paranoid about the 3 kills really doesn't make any sense to me when we've already got 4 scum dead. In a game with crosskilling potential and a probable SK who's either going to kill someone we want dead or get lynched himself, I don't understand the rationale for saying "SSBF is SK, he must die straight away!" Even if he is an SK, he's not just town's problem, people.
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Post Post #1771 (ISO) » Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:26 am

Post by Axelrod »

Scum who are behind would want the SK around to help them shorten the game. Every town kill is one less mis-lynch they need to generate.

They night not be
saying
they want SSBF to live right now, but inside, that's what they want.

Mina, I'll see what I can do. Cases involve the search function and having multiple windows open at the same time, besides having a spare hour or three.
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CSL
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Post Post #1772 (ISO) » Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:37 am

Post by CSL »

I want to lynch Unsight today.

Vote: Unsight
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"I can't kill my own best friend, especially when I can't do shit at all!" - Tragedy


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" - Amrun

V/LA from Mafia on weekends. Sorry!
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Post Post #1773 (ISO) » Mon Aug 02, 2010 5:03 am

Post by Macavitar »

xvart wrote:Yes, he's helped us, but I don't think it is a safe assumption to think that is/was his primary objective.
Meh, who cares about his objective. He's on a short leash and we have breathing room, imo. Obviously at some point he will outlive his usefulness, but he poses a greater threat to the scum right now than the town. If the scum is smart, they will kill him at night to save their skins.
vezo wrote:Posting here until a big case on someone is made so I can vote . Until them I will let my vote on mina.
Vote Mina
lol wut?

@Axelrod - I don't think a case on someone involves the search function and all that much work. Just succinctly state in 3 or 4 sentences why you find someone scummy and want them lynched today. It's pretty brief really and can be convincing if you make good points.

Really thought I was going to have more catching up to do since I missed the weekend...guess people are just riding this day out. I suggest we start casting votes and get real pressure going (preferably on Unsight) so discussion will pick up again.
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Post Post #1774 (ISO) » Mon Aug 02, 2010 5:07 am

Post by Thor665 »

Vote: Rifka Viveka


I promised to go back and read this weekend, but I'll actually cower in my semi-confirmedness and note that I didn't because partly I was working and partly I was just partying late with friends - and what sleep I could wrangle was more important to me then reading isos, which I loathe.

This is mostly gut and partly based off of who is voting what.

I'll probably still try to get a reread in on some isos later, but I want the vote out there and I want more conversation as regards the Unsight/Rifka question which appears to be before us. Town feels slightly pedantic today, I'm not sure if that's because we're being brilliant together or if we've got blinders on, I figure more debate won't hurt either way.

@vezo - bwuh? Mina? Any particular reason for the vote shift?

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