Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Pittbunny]

@SSBF - that before you said that you wouldn't mind losing a day to lynch millar, but now you're saying you would?
@Pitt - I was going to bring up the same thing actually. There's way too many possibilities. I really think that Richard should be lynched today

Disagree. Would you lynch a claimed Vig? If not, would you lynch a claimed Vig+? It seems far more useful for Rich to be alive tonight and provide information by actions rather than to lynch him and be less able to interpret night actions.

[Jahudo]

@Mod: Can you prod Richard please?

About the EGL case...

Why EGL is scum for Dummies:

1) The Shattered Viewpoint Vote:
EGL votes SV for an RVS reason, then, when the wagon starts to grow, heavily lurks until the lynch.

I can agree with this. Regardless of his other game commitments there didn't seem to be any attempt to make suspects. I would think that could be done even if you are lost in a game and don't trust your reads very well. The shattered viewpoint vote didn't look very serious and his posts about KMD and Diacria were the only investigating but he really didn't take a stance on whether or not they were doing something suspicious.

2 and 3) I done told you people before I get suspicious of people with mile long town lists, especially on D1, because it seems like they're buddying/know who is and is not scum. The same applied to my questioning KMD about his page 1 town reads. HTF does someone know on page 1 who is town? It's not my fault if you disagree and think that's perfectly normal

Before in this game? Then why didn't you throw a vote down on one of them? If Viewpoint was a better lynch at the time, why didn't you say why? Did you look for his posts after you voted? Why no questions to him?

I think Nacho makes a decent case for an EGL lynch.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote Richard x2

Just decided I believe the claim.

[RichardGHP]

Still here, will answer questions later if still alive, no time now.

[Charlie]

You will be given that chance. I reiterate: It would be bad to lynch a claimed PR with vig powers.

[Magua]

Ok. CPR doctor. Fine. But you didn't try to vig someone last night? Seriously?

Here's what we do.

We don't lynch Richard today.
We do not let Richard pick the kill. That way lies madness. Instead, tonight, Richard "saves" millar13. I've seen no one who's

against

millar13 being vigged, and a lot of people (including myself) who are for it.

Tomorrow, if millar13 is dead, we pick another target for Richard to save. We use him exactly as a town-directed vigilante. As long as the specified target dies each night, we're good.
Tomorrow, if millar13 is not dead, then I'm more amenable to lynching Richard. Worst case, that means that scum had to waste a kill on the vig target/roleblock Richard which they wouldn't have to do if he was lynched today.

@Magua: Is your gut read on EGL strong enough where you would defend him if he was at L-2 right now? Also, what makes you say that Charlie is pushing EGL right now? He isn't voting him, he hasn't provided anything new about him...

It's an off-the-cuff gut read. It would depend why he was at L-2 and what the case against him was. As is, only you have voted for EGL, so its pretty much a hypothetical. If both he and Charlie were at L-1, I would hammer Charlie, certainly.

I said Charlie pushed on EGL because of his response to your posted case (#824). I see he's made more references to it in the last few days (#1027). I think what really irks me about #824 is the continuation of Charlie saying things without even an attempt at backing it up (Kmd is doing this a lot too, and it's getting on my nerves, but every once inawhile Kmd at least tries to explain things).

I'm glad that Charlie posted #1027. Sad to see I wasn't even mentioned in it. Still have the Charlie-is-scum read. Complete disagreement with Kmd on this one.

Animorph has fallen into scumland with #983 (paraphrased: "I don't believe Richard, lynch him"). A complete and utter disbelief of the claim is fine, but this one seems inexplicably not-thought-out.

[Charlie]

Magua, I believe you're attempting to read me through a mix of playstyle analysis and content analysis. No trouble with content analysis, but the playstyle reads are unreliable. You say I don't back up my cases. Is that a good indicator to tell someone's alignment? Town can follow who they believe to be town as well. (If you want a reference, go check L4D Mafia.)

I'll mention here and now that KMD closely resembles someone from that previously completed game, I'm going along the idea that this is what is happening now. He ended up being town and based on this I'm comfortable labelling KMD town as well. If the method works, use it again.

IIRC, you posted a case against me out of the blue and now you followed it up. Not much to say about that specifically. I do however disagree with you on choosing the "kill" for Richard. Too much WIFOM. We let him decide on it, we insist he claim his action. By saying "oh you must protect millar13 tonight" we open up a can of worms like: oh, mafia will know this therefore they try to kill millar13 and he does not die but wait maybe that is what they want me to think or maybe that is what they want me to think so..."

Conclusion: Don't lynch Richard, let him take a NA and claim it. Decide weather to lynch him or not Tomorrow.

Gotta rechack Animorph.

[Kmd4390]

Charlie, who do I closely resemble out of curiosity?

[Nachomamma8]

Twomz, when I originally provided the case, everyone ignored it, and there's not really a whole lot I can do in response to that. Yeah, I can form some ridiculously stretched case against him that will make more people pay attention, or I could just spam the thread with "LOOK AT EGL CASE AND RESPOND TO IT".

Magua, the directed vig kill plan sucks. Let's say ONLY millar dies. Does that mean we line up the mislynch for tomorrow? Let's say no one dies. How do we know mafia didn't just decide to no-kill?

[Locke Lamora]

Mafia deciding to no-kill on N2? Are you saying that they would block Richard and no-kill just for the purposes of getting Richard lynched today? Why would scum kill millar if his claim is legit anyway?

[Magua]

Magua, I believe you're attempting to read me through a mix of playstyle analysis and content analysis. No trouble with content analysis, but the playstyle reads are unreliable. You say I don't back up my cases. Is that a good indicator to tell someone's alignment? Town can follow who they believe to be town as well. (If you want a reference, go check L4D Mafia.)

Part of it is playstyle analysis, yes. My playstyle reads in particular may be unreliable, as I don't know you all as well as you all seem to know eachother. But one-liners, making blanket statements without any support, etc, etc, are antitown actions. Are they indicative of alignment? Not reliably, of course, but town (ideally) are motivated to not take antitown actions.

If you make a case without backing it up, how have you helped town?
Do you feel motivated to help town?

My feelings on you are pretty much the same as my feelings on millar; if it weren't for his BP claim, I'd be all about lynching him as well. But, there is the BP claim, which is why I am all for him getting vigged.

I'll mention here and now that KMD closely resembles someone from that previously completed game, I'm going along the idea that this is what is happening now. He ended up being town and based on this I'm comfortable labelling KMD town as well. If the method works, use it again.

He acted that way in one game and was town, so he must be town in this game?

No, wait. Are you saying he's acting like *someone else* who was town in that game, and so he must be town in this game?

This reads like straight up buddying.

IIRC, you posted a case against me out of the blue and now you followed it up. Not much to say about that specifically. I do however disagree with you on choosing the "kill" for Richard. Too much WIFOM. We let him decide on it, we insist he claim his action. By saying "oh you must protect millar13 tonight" we open up a can of worms like: oh, mafia will know this therefore they try to kill millar13 and he does not die but wait maybe that is what they want me to think or maybe that is what they want me to think so..."

I thought about this. I don't think it's a good idea.

Possibility #1: Richard is scum. Scum have a lot of latitude in picking the kill and still making it useful. Richard can wait and see what happened during the night before making a claim about who he "saved," which allows even more leeway if there are multiple NKs.

Possibility #2: Richard is town. Scum can let his "save" go through, or they have to trade either their night-kill to stop it (roleblock is different: see below). If it goes through, great. If they trade their nightkill to block it, that's also great. I will happily take that trade because it's like a free lynch.

I ignore roleblocking in possibility #2: this is because if scum are going to roleblock Richard, it doesn't matter who he targets, or whether this is announced beforehand or not. If you approve of Richard being left alive to vig (and you do), then roleblocking is a non-argument for using a pre-selected target.

tl;dr: Pre-selection has pros (more accountability, less leeway if Richard is scum). The only valid con is that scum could nightkill the target themselves...but I'm ok with that, because then they're not nightkilling someone useful.

Magua, the directed vig kill plan sucks. Let's say ONLY millar dies. Does that mean we line up the mislynch for tomorrow? Let's say no one dies. How do we know mafia didn't just decide to no-kill?

Let's say millar gets to self-select his kill. Does the answer to *any* of your questions change? No. The answers are exactly the same.

So, to both of you: What are you afraid will happen if its decided he'll vig millar tonight? How is it different than if he self-selects the kill?

[Charlie]

Charlie, who do I closely resemble out of curiosity?

Furry.

If you make a case without backing it up, how have you helped town?
Do you feel motivated to help town?

I can and have done so. However, I see others have better case-making skills than I and I choose to trust them and follow suit. Does this not also help town?

My feelings on you are pretty much the same as my feelings on millar; if it weren't for his BP claim, I'd be all about lynching him as well. But, there is the BP claim, which is why I am all for him getting vigged.

Do you know that in the typical case scenario is that when a BP dies (either by lynching or NK) we usually lose a whole Day?

He acted that way in one game and was town, so he must be town in this game?

Yes. This is my opinion (replace "must" with "likely").

No, wait. Are you saying he's acting like *someone else* who was town in that game, and so he must be town in this game?

This reads like straight up buddying.

My first reaction is like "no way!"
After some thought, I'll admit: yes in a way it is like buddying. I remember I once said something like this and I'll just say it again: town members have to trust somebody to get somewhere. I trust KMD.

tl;dr: Pre-selection has pros (more accountability, less leeway if Richard is scum). The only valid con is that scum could nightkill the target themselves...but I'm ok with that, because then they're not nightkilling someone useful.

No, look at that: is a bunch of WIFOM and we're going deeper into WIFOM territory. After reading the above I find myself with a headache.

[Xite91]

Disagree. Would you lynch a claimed Vig? If not, would you lynch a claimed Vig+? It seems far more useful for Rich to be alive tonight and provide information by actions rather than to lynch him and be less able to interpret night actions.

If there wasn't a way to prove it and he;
1) Has been playing AtE + Scummy + lurker
2) Did something TWO OTHER PLAYERS DID that got attention off of them, and seemed even to make people think they were more town (even though they had legit reasons IIRC not RAAAAAAAAAAGE - also it was actually for other reasons that at least one looked town afterward)
3) In the VERY SAME POST he decides to claim something that could be an amazing thing to help town? And no one questions that?
4) Plus lets get into a bit of WIFOM if you will, this could be richard as scum, then he can;
a. Direct the kill (OHAI the person you told me to kill is dead, does i get cookie?)
b. NK someone else and just *say* he defended them, but someone else might have tried to nk him
c. Not kill him and someone else tries to kill him, he said he did, other person says they did, we kill Richard and probably catch scum, but hey a pr is now outed, and one that CAN help town
The list goes on and on and on and on...... my point is that we have no real way of knowing that it's real or fake and honestly they way he did it I have absolutely no belief that he's telling the truth.

Magua, I believe you're attempting to read me through a mix of playstyle analysis and content analysis. No trouble with content analysis,

but the playstyle reads are unreliable.

You say I don't back up my cases. Is that a good indicator to tell someone's alignment? Town can follow who they believe to be town as well. (If you want a reference, go check L4D Mafia.)

I'll mention here and now that KMD closely resembles someone from that previously completed game, I'm going along the idea that this is what is happening now. He ended up being town and based on this I'm comfortable labelling KMD town as well.

If the method works, use it again.

lolwut?

[Charlie]

What, I can't apply past experience here? Even if a method is risky and unreliable, I can't go ahead and do it anyway? I do what I must because I can.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

Changing my stance on the RichardGHP's claim. To be honest, I think RichardGHP could be lying after all. I just realized that if RichardGHP is scum, scum can forgo a Night Kill so RichardGHP can say "I protected this person who was attacked by the Mafia.". He could say that one of his scum buddies was protected by him. If town were to fall into this trap, that's two scums we're very unlikely to ever get rid of.

With that said, I no longer mind a RichardGHP lynch today. I really dislike how he's using the claim as a free pass to not doing anything to help town while almost everyone else has tried to find scums in one way or another. Also look at Rhinox's post here:

Unless Richard can reasonably explain to me why he did not use his role to kill millar or any of his other scum reads (in your next post please), I will vote to lynch him in my next post.

Rhinox asked RichardGHP to reasonably explain to him why he did not use his role to kill millar/his suspects Night 1 in his next post.

Still here, will answer questions later if still alive, no time now.

Completely avoids explaining what Rhinox was asking in that quote. Between July 27, 2010 and July 29, 2010, RichardGHP has a lot of time to decently explain what Rhinox asked him. He's also posted in other games, so he doesn't really have any excuse to not make a proper explanation in this post.

You know what? I don't care if we give RichardGHP's claim a chance anymore. Echoing Xite91 here, he has done pratically nothing productive for the town in all of his sixty-seven posts here and that does not look like to change. The fact that he has not explained why he didn't protect someone Night 1 also points at a fakeclaim in the making. Either way, more evidence points at him being scum then town:

Unvote, Vote: RichardGHP

---

@SSBF - that before you said that you wouldn't mind losing a day to lynch millar, but now you're saying you would?

All right, I see the contradiction. The reason for it is because I had forgotten that there was a vigilante that could potentionally take care of of millar13 and I thought lynching was the only way we could achieve the option. However, I did eventually realize that a vigilante may very well be in this game and we shouldn't rule out the possibility of having one, which is why I'm no longer in favor of a millar13's lynch. Now I would say that RichardGHP's claim if true could use his protect on millar13, but as explained by this post, I've done a complete 180 on my opinion on RichardGHP's claim. So I'm suggesting that if there's a real Vigilante, he should vig millar13 tomorrow. If millar13 is a Beloved Princess and is telling the truth, we have prevented a day from being lost. If millar13 is lying, then we have a dead scum.

[Ythan]

When you say tomorrow do you mean tonight?

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

@Ythan: Yes, I meant that the real vigilante should vig millar13 tonight.

[Ythan]

And by real do you mean?

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

@Ythan: I mean that if a real Vigilante exist, he should vig millar13 tonight.

[Ythan]

What do you mean by qualifying it with real?

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

If the person is indeed a Vigilante, then he is the real deal.

[Xite91]

What, I can't apply past experience here? Even if a method is risky and unreliable, I can't go ahead and do it anyway? I do what I must because I can.

Considering the BLARING contradiction? You don't want people to use the same type of method to lynch you? It just doesn't make sense to me.

Changing my stance on the RichardGHP's claim. To be honest, I think RichardGHP could be lying after all. I just realized that if RichardGHP is scum, scum can forgo a Night Kill so RichardGHP can say "I protected this person who was attacked by the Mafia.". He could say that one of his scum buddies was protected by him. If town were to fall into this trap, that's two scums we're very unlikely to ever get rid of.

This is about what you just did
What I about did in response

Oh, by the way, tomorrow, I'm coming after you.

[Xite91]

EBWOP
About *what i did in response

[EGL]

Sorry I've been away. I'm probably going to need a V/LA until August 4, the day after election day. GOTV is a super busy time for me.

Also, am I at L-1 yet? Because I can claim right quick if need be.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

@EGL: You are not at L-1 yet.